the hello and welcome to wells a part. the middle east has always been a land of fast shifting sands, but over the last couple of weeks, the jo, political landscape of the region has changed so much that it was the main stakeholders seem to have been caught unawares. who is winning, who's losing as for how long will to discuss it? i'm now joined by correct me. right. a former british diplomats listen, mary is great to talk to thank you very much for your time. thank you very much for inviting me now. i bet it's hard to surprise a susan diplomat, especially given the so many up he was in the region over the last couple of years in the last couple of decades. but i think even by the current spenders of unpredictability, the passing here has been printed dramatic for the middle eastern region. what surprised what strikes you the most about the year 2024 to it's being spectacular and disastrous and,

and of course the the continual under cut and we submitted as a guest is the, the genocide which is ongoing and in gaza fund fits become so common place to become so accustomed to seeing images of, of dead children and destroyed hospitals and torture doctors the devices of danger . we lose sight of his remarkable baptism. how, how terrible it is. but that's just kind of, i don't steadly by decided the best of to go i, i wanted to try to get into goals. are there is no way to do. it's probably probably to permission to get into the west bank. and let me get permission to me as a means to have to give you permission to pass. do so i went out to lebanon a couple of months ago to cover the war in lebanon. and then of course, city a dropped it. so if it's any of a moving targets in terms of what's happening across the middle east at the moment,

we really much of them at least as a place. uh huh. let me focus on the uh, on the rounds in syria for the time being because in the future of that state is pretty on certain uh with israel. 6 ill enter k expanding there, hold on uh, 0 surgery m many intelligent services across the entire region and perhaps around the world a trying to figure out where things are likely to move from here on or was there also lots of atrocities happening there as well. what's your take, what's your intention on how the future of this land, the future of this country is likely to both? i think we are in for a prolonged period off of war. and we have the most extraordinary coalition of power was combined to put the content government into pilot. and in city of we had over stay on the face of this. we have to created the united

states and israel, who were very involved and have been involved loan to been promoting these particular do you have just a tied to by says on those levels some but then we have of course, also the gulf states capital in particular which have been funding them loan to those well, and we've seen this extraordinary of coming together hold, hold, apparently defeating interest. steve. the tucks wants to be able to attack the goods in this area and also to take to, to in the adults and take effective control of a level which they've done. the americans pause and conflict with the to accept the codes because the americans are being busting the codes. but the american primary aim is to maintain control over the oil fields of city in the north and east, which they have achieved. israel has taken a great deal more land,

but the language israel has occupied in cities. but in the last couple of weeks, it is 3 times the size of the gaza strip is to put it into context and the gulf states of, of the deductible. if they wanted, which is a extreme so life has so many government in city of which we will close, we will see become increasingly until the when does the days go by. but in the summer, it isn't that also what's paradoxical about this whole situation. their own norman, the allies, but they all have in huge appetites, and yet each of them achieving something for itself uh, put them sort of on the uh, the longer has with the own allies, for example, tricky and saudi arabia or turkey in the united states. now, lots of packet one by one. i want to start with the, with the american and western interest. and i, i somewhat surprisingly noticed that the western media for now have been rather

restraint than the commentary i part from perhaps trying to re brown tie up to create. i saw a bony speed or to hide his group as a sort of cause i see the organization a cnn around a very formally looking interview with the leader of bloom. well, how about that of delani? talking about the inclusion building of institutions and overall adopting this political western language. what do you make of this re branding dressing? it's el center. and what they're saying is the tries to achieve think there's a certain authenticity could pin, but i think the western colors have good and small number of leaders of the movement of jolanda himself, of course being the biggest one who are willing to act as western puppets. in exchange for power and who quite possibly is personally, the willing not to adult the kind of extreme violence.

islam is totally just agenda, but he, he was following when he was with outside the nicest. it's perfectly possible the tea himself didn't exchange for high load and wealth, and all of those things has dropped as a deal to j. i'm just taking a different path. but with us, the 10s of thousands of this monday about a week goes and specs and texans and base because x and there is other nationalities who followed him into damascus loop. you know, consists of his fighting, forced, well, whether they are willing to drop them. 60 minutes of this agenda is a very different question. indeed, as far as russia is concerned, i think this is a very pressing see security challenge, according to some estimates, up to 30 percent or higher up to create some fighters are professional decide is

they come from central asia and you know, they don't have any particular allegiance to political power transition in syria there and just there for hire. plus, as we all know, there are also tons of thousands of former isis fighters held in jails under curtis control in eastern syria. so if all of that force gets lose, i think ok, that's some point may, may this seem like a moderate organization that is inexplicable to it, to the russians that the lease is that kind of force not considered a threat. them the worst is their believe that they can somehow be controlled or we dictated that some should understand it better than anybody. because of course, this was the western played book about drawing, progressing okey pace, nebraska and the stuff on the west impacts wires against the west beach. i believe it's london bombings and $911.00. and oh, you know all the consequences. so,

you know, it's hard for the russians to believe that there was some memories, so sure, there must be some sort of a plan list, very seldom learns the history of the united kingdom. for example, does not when they did ask them to stand for times in history and just being defeated at the time, but it doesn't stop and doing it some time to time, but it's loading some history is know, 6 is not as strong points of a of west impala placement, and this will boom, and i'm going to play it. it's going to lead to a revival of interest in the extreme islamic fanaticism in of islamic terrorism. and i think be, well, con, i'm pretty certain. so, you know, speaking to my own, my diplomatic contacts that the west prime and certainly the business plan, which they will have been given by the americans is the, the,

the immediate idea will be to target these most them days. and exchange you had this only rock to send them into rock to take on the sheer melisha and which bill they support the comments about the government and but essentially, but they will look to the purpose them introduce starting the big the rockies civil war in order to take the control of the rock that i'm to get somebody to city a fund my my guess is as a and they are liable to want to stick together as a fighting force and i'm leasing them on see a militia in golf would seem to me the uh, the wave of the west will seek to dissipate the energies if you like to something new, something in that way, which is still helpful to us that interests because of the cost,

the reality of policies i've been trying with our success to beside the united states military to leave the rock for some time. the funds. so they also know rock hopelessly american ministry of cousins though. now you've been following the situation. i'm galvan and of course the collapse of the syrian government has many implications for the conflict there. and because syria was used as the main logistical corner door for her mouse and other pull this thing, infections and i remember the house on the thrall of the former secretary general of his bullet, saying before he was assassinated by israel. that without syria, there would be no palestine. what do you think is likely to happen both to the palestinian aspirations of the palestinian teacher that is born out of those frustrated aspirations? i think you must be said the full halt sylvia is

a disaster for the the access of resistance to whose they put column to use terminology. the supply lines to hezbollah uh, selectively. because all the time we shouldn't forget the, the, the, the people who and i have the government to pin damascus of the absolute independence of hezbollah on. so i'm hoping, fighting a has blown if i touch the be located by is so well is the sheltering them in the shadow of the goal and heights of when they were defeated by russia and said they tend to sit in a civil war. and they were with took disagreements, relocate to don't know if to, to a blip, but his beloved paid paid to the lots posts and made defeats and besides so, so they asked full amenities of his will. not so that the con sworn enemies, i've been wrong. so there is no way they're going to a live the continued supply called homes to city a tough to has the last tell me wrong. and it's worth noting,

but one of the very 1st major statements made biofuel on the off to he took power. a was to say that the enemies his by law and the wrong no the so uh, so this, this is an isabel said it, this is effectively design is government. i'm from in so much of what's happening is crazy and i know some of it by side by says out trying to the side of this, the government may sound strange, but on the other hand, people should ask themselves why it is. but i says on those, uh okay, the never ever ones in the history a tax is very little any is a the interest they've been sponsored by is a little from day one. but mr. mary, uh, i do repeat my question though, what they're saying that leaves uh the palestinian aspirations of statehood and you know, all the harsh feelings associated with not being treated as human beings. i think

sadly, of the genocide and in casa is. so that's an advantage the state there's, nobody really knows how many of the population have died, but there's no longer be able to start to, to support lifestyle, play in, in gaza. and i think we will see the, the is very announcement to the i'm exec, some hope casa, the barely quite soon. but in the westbank, people live under the palestinian, the polity, which i never thought i would see is somebody who you know, use to support the thought to that's i'm, i'm i, i never thought i would say, but publish student apology because i'm hoping leave a tool as well, but that's what has become the case of that planing is those 2 state solution beds, but the candle be up to the state, so there's some, there's not enough left to for a city and state. garza is demolished, but the west bank has seen the settlements every day. settlements expand in the

west bank. the amount of the west bank on the effective color, stadium control is a minority of the area under the sink. some think some sinks and things like the water is also is negative, cold to land on the posting and controls. thing can drink from countries through this. lum similarly is increasingly occupied. so the, the idea of a 2 state solution is that, let's focus here on this very sobering note, but to go back to the discussion in a few moments. but for now, we have to take a short break states and the release of russian states never as tight as i'm one of the most sense community best ingles, all sense and up the speed . what else holes? question about this?

even though we will then in the european union, the kremlin mission, the state on the rush for d. s r t spoke neck. even our video agency, roughly all the band on youtube, the payment services for the question, did you say even closer to the the the welcome back to world the park. this brack me right. a former british diplomats missing the right before the break. we talked a lot about israel. the who for now seems to be the main beneficiary of what's

happening in syria. there have been some estimates that up to 80 percent of serious military infrastructure has been destroyed on the israeli tanks and out positions within the the 18 kilometers of the syrian, the capital one. we all know what israel takes it rarely returns. do you think it will stop there or do you think it would go perhaps further? because i've heard some is real officials now openly musing about the mass because being part of a supposedly great israel. what do you think it will stop really hard to see where it will stop? because it's very hard to say what to consult them. the problem is nobody in the immediate region has any kind of a defense against is a wild be? is there any um, it has proven to be pitching in effective in, in, in grounds, going back to in southern lebanon. the example that fits the ability to just pound

some fees into submission to make their supplies of cost by the united states and germany is on talent. and just uh, and that's what we saw in the lab. and then it's not just in syria, as though they only has no intention of leaving those pups of southern lebanon that is, of you buying up and will almost sent, they expand the, the, the, in the new. yeah, i think people have to understand, but the, the great to is a project is better, you build it. it's not a concept. it spelled a bill. and those of us who've been telling people it by to, you know, and i've seen that deadline has been real time wave, but expansion into garza, into syria, into lebanon's. and, and the world has to decide whether it's prepared to put up with this the, the aggressive colonialist expansionist power, which has

a cause to assist bassist dolton because that's what, that's what we face in the middle east. and it's very, very scary at the moment because the western world seems lines to the dangers of bullshit and such, such an extreme a deal of this is all right. let me play the devil's advocate for a moment because i do agree with your characterization as if is really uh, pull it, take some policies and he up the part of me when i look at what, what's happening uh, in the region then the old be had a sports moving around and the fears that many christian and um, you know, other minorities in the region have done part of me sort of understands why some of them would appeal to israel for some sort of a protector. it, do you think it makes sense for israel to try to be in the garden of those communities is more of them. humanitarian then on your cynical, jo, political purposes, a big store today. so the goal, because i've, i've,

i've been touring around 711 to 10 visiting churches and schools and other institutions in christine villages, which is val has boned and destroyed quite deliberately and but so israel has one time, the southern commit menu, christian communities in 711 and i visited one church, is they'll bones coming 15 guns workers who were using the church as a temporary headquarters during the emergency and who were killed that on investigate. so it didn't go is that of course we have seen israel destroyed cortez routinely. i'm just starting hospitals of non breakfast in china to some so the, the idea of israel has any sympathy for christy. i'm gonna tell you always and $0.90 a, a possible spencer the both the christian communities as is nonsense, and i would say i in 11 and i lived for 2 months in,

inside one of the christian communities in lebanon, and nearby 10 to 15 percent of the system minority in lebanon, i would take the view, but they support is the among christians in lebanon. the vast majority of them to test as to what is ellis is doing. but all the hist for historic reasons, the pockets of the starting to the fax, the fax is to kristi and organizations which do support as well. but they, they up in no sense a representative of the majority of the kristi and population. now there is another norman, the american la, who is it seem to expand as greatness in syria. and i'm of course, talking about turkey, which uh, you know, who is, officials are now openly discussing. i left for being a part of a whole dion, great or uh country. um do you think now is

a good moment for the church to try to make the political fantasies the reality? most of us have be in the the really taking the back by the open expensive is on top of the tax and the extent to which it is um and has so much of a pretending have you if you liked because he had done so much uh, apparently would work in promoting the colors thing and goals, but the exact polls put it as a in the background all the time. but he was quoting, took his expansion into syria. i don't imagine we will see any formal amex, i some of of sit in lined by turkey. uh, but we will see, i think the continued took these minutes to go to a basement defacto until of hopefully going to get to more of

a north by by to ok. i don't think it going away any time soon. when i see all this competition for greater, israel are great. i try to part of me sort of um its frozen because uh, i think it will be recent conflicts have told great powers that they have to be extremely careful about the, you know, binding what they can to. and i think that's one of the reasons you don't see the russian army and marching on key for beef because it doesn't want to deal with that kind of a situation. this is one of the reasons why perhaps iran and russia pulled back and didn't stand to defend the assad government. um, do you seeing both israel and turkey have the resources, the military resources, the interest or change of resources, the sole power resources to not only occupied the land but a deal with the consequences of occupation and hopefully bring some sort of a settlement lasting piece to those plans, he certainly has the military ability to do so. um,

but of course there's a big deal of resentment among other peoples. got the idea of being built again by the took so who are in the site to full main perio power. they may try to, they will certainly try to occupy as much opportunities populate to touch as late as they can is fail, so will never been pc is the all is a snow supremacist, all village joseph tempest, a state which is as many they respected organizations have pointed, i just found it on, on the principle of apartheid time and it only knows violence and the guy. so the great one it is, but what is collapse? and it is clear that as i'm so we are, we are now seeing an extreme solid fist government extolled it, installed and in damascus, we're seeing is l. dropping off to $0.10 attempting to live peacefully with the

palestinians. and instead of being intent upon the extermination of this stuff, this month of allowed to billy joseph chemist spent so late colored a sentence and a multi if necessary, and multi religious multi functional societies of j. the on the set in the, in the middle east. and as soon as you alluded to earlier, the existing community it is which solving will just come in just in communities in the world which are with some strictest, young and say the originator. they are the ones that greatest and just want to come and develop. now i think the hi renee of this whole situation is that there is also another 3rd group of another in the american allies of western allies like saudi arabia in the united arab emirates. it zipped quite, not very excited about seeing syria being divided between israel on one hand on

turkey on its moslem brotherhood proxy is on the other hand, do you think washington or westmore generally can still be an effective med mediator among all its allies? and there are competing appetites, it's always very difficult to you understand the motivations of the gulf states. on the one hand, you have the religious motivation in which they are very keen to say solely as love and particularly. so i hope that satisfies them and why have them they oh and, and that because somebody's searching pulmonology of interest in this, in this case with the post on the hook types in the, in the city or on the other hand of those countries, the old, the governed by using a gates, which i'm not very popular with that on public, comes out dependent upon united states, military support and security. so the support handling is

a security service support in order to stay in power against their own people. so that the business continual balance is going on and as moving a lead, split the interest as in personal finance, javascript. so, but any kind of the global jo strategies, so you've come to consider the of the gulf states in terms of normal politics. the, they are very, very strange entities. i only have time for one more question. uh, my perception i placed is that russia, china, a number of other countries, a sort of pulling back and letting regional actors resolve this global, perhaps letting the united states deal with all its, uh, competing allies. and the, i wonder if you think that's an exception, because we want to use to the other way around, you know,

re powers intervening. trying to, you know, expand their influence as russian div, let's say in 20122013. and later on, do you think that's the way your politics will be practice from now on, you know, region know, uh after is having a free hand then doing whatever they want to do, or do you think great powers will come back to the table and try to observe the influence in some shape or form. thank you. i think it's a great mistake. i understand the process of cost p occupied with your trade in the $100.00 spending a pretty. it's major. there's also a particular military. there's also isn't in u. k. a, china has always avoid that involvement in, in conflict away from it shows. but i think china and russia wants to be more involved in the making of a dangerous mistake by not being more involved. but if you listen to any bits of

code to counsel debates, calling from the middle east over the last few months, it's with chinese and go some delegates who speak the most sense. china and also so there may be cooling that power on the spot in trying to in particular should be existing. it's muscle not particularly like a normal muscle to full country is particularly united states, so of which kinda holds millions trillions. hope united states that up to behaving the more responsible way because otherwise it really is a disk, but this could go definitely out of hand and possibly into a nuclear war setting. so i'd love to see china and russia be more associates and didn't post some authority on the situation. well, mr. marie, i guess we will have to wait and see what the next year will bring in terms of the grades, power involvement, then they're your political responsibilities. but for now, we have to leave it there. thank you very much for sharing your analysis. thank you very much. and thank you for watching hope to hear again on was

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