the, the, [000:00:00;00] the hello and welcome to worlds. a part of the middle east has always been a land of fast shifting sands. but over the last couple of weeks, the jo, political landscape of the region has changed so much that it wasn't the main stakeholders. seemed to have been caught unawares who is winning, who's losing as for how long or to discuss it. i'm now joined by correct me right. a former breeders diplomat cemetery is great to talk to thank you very much for your time. thank you very much for invited me. now. i bet it's hard to surprise us

susan diplomat. especially given the so many up he was in the region over the last couple of years in the last couple of decades. but i think even by the current spenders of unpredictability, the passing here has been printed dramatic for the middle eastern region. what surprised what strikes you the most about the year 2024 fits being spectacular. been disastrous and, and of course the, the continual under code we submit of the guest is the, the genocide which is ongoing and in gaza fund fits become so common place for become so accustomed to seeing images of, of dead children and destroyed hospitals and tortured doctors but i'm going to visit the danger we lose sight of his remarkable, that isn't how, how terrible it is. but that's as kind of, i don't steadily but i decided it myself to go. i wanted to try to get him to go.

so there is no way to do it. i've tried to permission to get into the west bank. and when you get commission, somebody is a means who have to give you permission to pass. do. so i went out to lebanon a couple of months ago to cover the war in lebanon. and then of course, city a dropped it. so if it's any of a moving targets in terms of what's happening across the middle east at the moment, we really much of the middle east as a place. uh huh. let me focus on the uh, on the rounds in syria for the time being because in the future of that state is pretty on certain um with israel. 6 and tour k x finding their hold on uh, serious surgery um, many intelligent services across the entire region and perhaps around the world are trying to figure out where things are likely to move from here on a blogs. they're also lots of atrocities happening there as well. what's your take, what's your intention on how the future of this land,

the future of this country is likely to evolve? but thing we are in for a prolonged period off of war. um we had the most extraordinary coalition of power was combine. so to pull the current government into pilot and in city of we have over stay on the face of this, we have to create the nighted states and israel, who were very involved and have been involved long term been promoting these particular do you have just a tied to by says on those levels some but then we have of course also have the gulf states capital in particular which have been funding them along to those well. and we've seen this extraordinary of coming together hold of apparently defending interest steve. the tucks wants to

be able to attack the goods in this area and also to take to, to the goals and take effective control of a level which they've done. the americans of putting complex with the to accept the codes because the americans are being bucking the codes. but the american primary aim is to maintain control over the long fields of city and the north and east, which they have achieved. israel has taken a great deal more land, but the land which israel has occupied in syria. but in the last couple of weeks, it is 3 times the size of the gaza strip is to put it into context. and the gulf states of, of the deductible they wanted, which is a extreme select for so many government in city of which we will close. we will see become increasingly until the winters the days go by. mister murray, isn't that also? what's paradoxical about this whole situation? there, old norman, the allies, but they all have in huge appetites,

and yet each of them achieving something for itself, uh, put them sort of on the, uh, the longer has with that own allies, for example, tricky on saudi arabia or turk, in the united states. now, lots on packet one by one. i want to start with the, with the american in the west of interest. and i, i somewhat surprisingly noticed that the west and media for now have been a rather restraint than the commentary i part from perhaps trying to re brand tie up to create i shawn, a bony speed or to hide his group as a sort of cause i see that what we're going to zation a cnn around a very formally looking interview with the leader of google. how about that of delani? talking about the inclusion building of institutions and overall adopting this political western language. what do you make of this re branding dressing? it's all center and what they're saying is the tries to achieve think there's

a certain authenticity could pin that i think the western colors have good and small number of leaders of the movements of children to himself. of course, being the oldest one who are willing to act as less than carpets in exchange for power and who quite possibly is personally, but willing not to adult. the kind of extreme violence is limited to just agenda, but he, he was following when he was with outside the nicest. it's perfectly possible the t himself didn't exchange for high load and wealth and all of those things has dropped is a deal to j. i'm just taking a different path, but with us, the 10s of thousands of this, many of them we goes and goes back some texans and based on the carfax and there is

other nationalities who followed him into damascus. new, you know, consists of, is by taking post. well, whether they are willing to jump on 60 minutes. let us the agenda is a very different question. indeed, as far as russia is concerned, i think this is a very pressing see security challenge, according to some estimates up to 30 percent or higher create options. fighters are professional decide is they come from central asia and, you know, they don't have any particular allegiance to political power transition in syria there and just there for hire applause. as we all know, there also tons of thousands of former isis fighters held in jails under curtis control in eastern syria. so if all of that force guest lose, i single kite at some point they may indeed seem like a moderate organization. and it is inexplicable to it to the russians that police

is uh, that kind of force not considered a threat. them the west is there believe that they can somehow be controlled or we dictated that some should understand it better than anybody? because of course, this was the western played bulk drawing, progressing, occupation of afghanistan, the west impacts wires against the west. these have to leave with london bombings and 911. and i'll, you know, all the consequences. so, you know, it's hard for the russians to believe that there was the memories so sure that there must be some sort of a plan well over wished very seldom learns the history of the united kingdom, for example. because now invaded afghanistan full times in history, and it's being defeated at the time, but it doesn't stop and doing it from time to time. but it's loving some history is not, it's is not a strong points of a, of west impala placement. and this will boom, and i'm going to play it. it's going to lead to

a revival of interest in extreme islamic fanaticism, uh, in of islamic terrorism. and i think the well con, i'm pretty certain. so, you know, speaking to my own, my diplomatic contacts, that the west problem, certainly the business plan, which they would've been given by the americans is the, the, the immediate idea will be to target these most them days and exchange you had this whole new rock to send them into vaux to take on the sierra melisha and which bill they support the comments about the government and, but essentially they, they will look to the purpose them introduce starting the big the rockies civil war in order to take the so the control of the rock that i'm to get somebody to city

fund my guess is as a, and they are liable to want to stick together as a fighting force and i'm leasing them on see a militia in iraq would seem to me the uh, on the way, but the west will seek to dissipate the energies if you like to something new, something in the way which is still helpful to us that invests because of the cost of the reality of policies i've been trying with i'm success to beside the united states military to leave the rock for some time, the funds, so payoffs into a rock hopelessly medical administrative testing stuff. uh huh. now you've been following the situation. i'm galvan and of course the collapse of the syrian government has many implications for the conflict there. and because syria was used as the main logistical corner door for her mouse and the other a pull this thing infections. and i remember the house on the, through all of the former secretary general of his bowler,

saying before he was assassinated by israel. that without syria, there would be no palestine. what do you think is likely to happen both to the palestinian aspirations of the palestinian teacher that is born out of those frustrated aspirations? i think you must be said the full halt sylvia is a disaster for the the access of resistance to whose they put call on a used to the knowledge of the supply lines to hezbollah. uh, effectively. because all the time we shouldn't forget the, the, uh, the people who and i have the government to attend damascus of the absolute estimates of hezbollah and helping, fighting as blown. if i touch the be located by is so well, is the sheltering them in the shadow of the goal and heights when they were defeated by gosh and say they tend to sit in

a civil war. and they were with cookies agreement to be located up know of $2.00 to $8.00 lips, but his beloved paid paid to the lots posts and moved to feed them besides. so they all swollen enemies of husband, so that the time sworn enemies of the wrong. so there is no way they're going to a live the continued supply called homes to city a tub to hezbollah, film it wrong. and it's worth noting the one, the very 1st may just statements make biofuel on the off to who took power. was to say that the enemy's his beloved and the wrong know is though. uh so this, this is an isabel said, this is effectively design is government says i'm farming so much of what's happening is crazy. and i know some call from the by side by says out trying to, but so i, it is, the government may sound strange, but on the other hand, people should ask themselves why it is. but i says on those, uh okay,

the never ever ones in the history a tax is a little any is a the interest they've been sponsored by is a little from day one. but mr. mary, uh, i do repeat my question though, what they're saying that leaves uh the palestinian aspirations of statehood and the, you know, all the harsh feelings associated with the not being treated as human beings. i think, sadly, of the genocide and in casa is. so that's an advantage the state is nobody really knows how many of the population have died, but there is no longer be able to start to, to support lifestyle, play in, in gaza. and i think we will see the, the is very nice month to be, i'm excited, some of gaza barely quite soon. but in the westbank people live on the palestinian, the polity, which i never thought i would see. it was somebody who, you know, used to support the thought to that's, i'm, i'm, i, i never thought i would say, but publish student the policy becomes open, leave

a tool as well. but that's what has become the case. but planing as low as 2 state solution bends, but the cannot be up to the state. so there's some, there's not enough left to for a city and state. garza is demolished, but the west bank has seen the settlements every day. settlements expand in the west bank. the amount of the west bank on the effective color sting in control is a minority of the area under the sink. some things, some sinks and things like a water is also is negative. cold to land on the posting and control sinking sink from tons, these stupid slum similarly is increasingly occupied. so the, the idea of a 2 state solution is that let's stop here on this very sobering note. but to go back to the discussion in a few moments, but for now we have to take a short break station.

the take a fresh look around his life kaleidoscopic isn't just a shifted reality distortion by power to division with no real opinions. fixtures designed to simplify will confuse really what say better wills. is it just as a chosen few fractured images presented as fast? can you see through their illusions going underground? can the welcome back to world the park. this brack know right. a former british diplomats. mr. mary, before the break, we talked

a lot about israel. the whole for now seems to be the main beneficiary of what's happening in syria. there been some estimates that up to 80 percent of serious military infrastructure has been destroyed on the is really tanks and out positions within the, the 18 kilometers of the syrian capital on me. all know what the israel takes, it rarely returns. do you think it will stop there or do you think it would go perhaps further? because i've heard some is real officials now open, amusing about the mass because being part of a, supposedly great israel. what do you think it will stop really hard to see where it will stop? because it's very hard to say, well, consult them. the problem is nobody in the immediate medium has any kind of a defense against is a wild be? is there any um, it has proven to be pretty effective and in grounds phone back in southern lebanon

for example. the fence ability to just pound confusion. does that make sense to me, to supply this cost by the united states and germany is on challenge just uh, and that's what we saw in the lab. and then it's not just in city of israel. family has no intention of leaving those pups of southern lebanon. that is, talk you buying up and will almost sent to expand the in the new. yeah, i think people have to understand, but the, the great to is a project is better, you build it. it's not a concept, it spelled a bill and those of us who are being telling people to buy to you know, and i've seen that deadline has in real time with the expansion into garza, into syria, into lebanon's. and, and the world has to decide whether it's prepared to put up with this the, the aggressive colonialist expansionist power, which has

a cause to assist bassist dotson because that's what, that's what we face in the middle east. and it's very, very scary at the moment because the western world seems lines to the dangers of functioning so such an extreme and deal legit. this is all right. let me play the devil's advocate for a moment because i do agree with your characterization of his really politics and policies. and he had the part of me when i look at what, what's happening in the region. and then the old page had a sports moving around them, the fears that many christian and um, you know, other minorities in the region have done part of me sort of understands why some of them would appeal to israel for some sort of a protector. it, do you think it makes sense for israel to try to be the guardian of those communities is more of them. humanitarian then on your cynical, jo,

political purposes, a big store. they set a goal because a lot of being tooling around, southern lebanon, and visiting churches and schools, and other institutions, increasing villages, which is val has boned and destroyed quite deliberately and but so israel has one time, the southern committee, many christian communities in southern lebanon. i visited one church, is l boned coming 1500 ones workers who were using the trucks as a temporary headquarters during the emergency and who were killed, but on investigate. so it didn't go is that of course we have seen israel destroyed so it says routine me, i'm just starting hospitals run back to a student trying to some so the idea of it is there has any sympathy for christy. i'm gonna tell you always and $0.90 a, a possible spencer. the both the christian communities is,

is nonsense. and i would say i in 11 and i lived for 2 months in, inside one of the existing communities in lebanon, and food nearby 10 to 15 percent of the system minority in lebanon. i would take the do, but they support is the among christians in lebanon, of the vast majority of them to test as to what is l is, is doing. but all the hist for historic reasons, the pockets of the starting point fast the fax is kristi and organizations which do support as well. but they, they up in no sense a representative of the majority of the christian population. now there is another and no man, no american ally who is it going to expand, is greatness in syria. and i'm of course, talking about turkey, which uh, you know, who is, officials are now openly discussing a lot for being a part of

a oh that great or uh, country. um, do you think now is a good moment for the church to try to make the political fantasies the reality? most of us have be in the, the really taking the back by the open expansionism of both the tax and the extent to which it is um, has so much of a pretending have you on the paper if you liked because he had done so much uh, apparently would work in promoting the colors, thinking and goals, but the exact polls put it as a in the background all the time. but he was quoting, took a suspension into syria. i don't imagine we will see any formal annexation of, of city inland by turkey. both we will see, i think, continued took his military doctor basement defacto until of hope,

the level and the great to more of a north by, by to ok. i doesn't, you're going away any time soon. when i see all this competition for greater israel or greater turkey, part of me sort of, um, its frozen because uh, i think will be recent conflicts have told great powers that they have to be extremely careful about the, you know, biding what they can to and i think that's one of the reasons you don't see the russian army and marching on key for beef because it doesn't want to deal with that kind of a situation. this is one of the reasons why perhaps iran and russia pulled back and didn't stand to define the assad government. do you seeing both israel and turkey have the resources, the military resources that your strategic resources, the soft power resources to not only occupied the land, but a deal with the consequences of occupation and hopefully bring some sort of

a settlement lasting piece to those plans key certainly has the military ability to do so. um, but of course there's a big deal of a resentment among other peoples. got the idea of being built again by the took so who are in the site to full met, imperial power. they may try to, they will certainly try to occupy as much per curtis populate to touch as late as they can. um is fail so well never been p. c. israel is a snow supremacist, all village, joseph tempest, a state which has as many they respected organizations have pointed, i just found it on, on the principle of, of, of pot side to them. and it only knows violence and then do guy. so the great what it is, but what does collapse and it is clear that there's a, so we are we, i'm not seeing an extreme solace to government extolled it, installed in, in damascus. we're seeing israel dropping, alter $0.10,

attempting to live peacefully with the palestinians. and instead of being intent upon the extermination of this stuff, this month of allowed to billy joseph pen assist spent so late holidays sentence and the multi ethnic city and multi religious multi so me know, societies of j beyond us, it in the, in the middle east and as soon as you alluded to earlier, the existing community is which solving whole just come in just into and this is in the well, which of west and fitness. the, i'd say the originator, they are the ones that great to stay and just on current develop. now i think the hi renee of this whole situation is that there is also another 3rd group of another in the american allies of western allies like saudi arabia and the united arab emirates. it zipped quite not very excited about seeing syria being divided

between israel on one hand on turkey and it's uh, muslim brotherhood proxies. on the other hand, do you think washington or west more generally can still be an effective med mediator among all its allies. and there are competing appetites, it's always very difficult to you understand the motivations of the gulf states. um, on the one hand you have the religious motivation in which style, very keen to say sony is love and particularly so i have that some of those i'm and what have is them they all and that because some of such a finality of interest in this in this case, with the most of the types in the, in the city or on the other hand of those countries, the old that governs by using a loops which are not very popular with that on public comes out dependent upon

united states, military support and security so the support handling is a security service support in order to stay and pilot against the own people. so the business continual balances going on and as moving a lead, split the interest as in personal finance javascript. so, but any kind of the global jo strategy, so the says you've called comes to the uh, the gulf states in terms of normal uh, geo politics. them. but they are very, very strange entities. i only have time for one more question. uh, my perception i placed is that russia, china, a number of other countries are sort of pulling back, letting regional actors resolve this global, perhaps letting the united states deal with all its, uh, competing allies. and the, i wonder if you think that's an exception because we weren't used to the other way

around. do you know, re powers intervening, trying to, you know, expand their influence as russia deep, let's say in 20122013. and later on, do you think that's the way your politics will be practice from now on, you know, region know, uh after is having a free hand been doing whatever they want to do, or do you think great powers will come back to the table and try to observe the implants in some shape or form. thank you. i think it's a great mistake. i understand the size of cost p occupied with your trade, that hyundai, expending pits major. there's also typically military, there's also isn't an u. k, but china has always avoid that involvement in, in conflict away from it shows. but i think china and russia h to be more involved in the making of a dangerous mistake by not being more involved. but if you listen to any of this

occurred to cancel debates on the fundamental least over the last few months is with chinese induction. delegates who would speak the most sense china and also so there may be cooling that pilot in the fall. it didn't turn to in particular, so be existing, it's muscle not particularly like a normal muscle to full countries, particularly united states. so of which kinda holds emilia williams up the united states that to behaving the more responsible way. because otherwise, there really isn't this, but this group go definitely out of hand and possibly into nuclear war. so. so i'd love to see china and russia be more associate and didn't post some authority on the situation. well, mr. marie, i guess we will have to wait and see what the next year will bring in terms of the great power involvement. then there joe political responsibilities, but for now we have to leave it there. thank you very much for sharing your analysis. thank you very much. and thank you for watching hope to hear again on was a part of

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