we'll discuss some of the the, [000:00:00;00] the hello and welcome to cross software. all things are considered on peter level. it would be nice to see in the new year with some optimism. unfortunately, this is not the case. the accumulation and deepening of many problems from last year are still very much with us. so fucking love brace for impact, the

cross fucking 2025. i'm joined by my guess. george sent me while we in budapest, he's a pod counselor at the guy go, which be found on youtube and locals. and here in moscow we crossed to marks or boulder. he's an international relations and security analyst, right. building cross lock roles and the fact that means you can jump any time you want. and i always appreciate it, mark, i'm going to go to you 1st and i'm going to kind of give you a to vent a little bit here. during 2024. a lot of people we know in the pod cast world in the alternative media world in the world. we're really kind of obsessed with predictions. and well, there's a lot of a gotten a lot of faces the go around here. and so i would really like to avoid in this program to work on predictions because i think it's a useless endeavor. okay? because most people end up being wrong and they don't always admit to it unfortunately. so having said that,

i would like to look at developing trends. ok, now we've just talked about what happened in 2024, given that conversation. what happened in 2024? what kind of developing trends from the last year do we feel? do we see going into this new year mark as well? i, i think that you know, the 1st the elephant row in the room is the conflict in, in ukraine. i, i do not believe that the conflict and ukraine will, will end in the next year. i think the trend of the acceleration and the escalation of the conflict will continue despite you know, you know, but the new us administration of donald trump coming into office in the united states simply because i do not believe that there is. any beal that the u. s. president, whoever that us present it is, can offer russia that russian will accept. and,

and russia's terms are unacceptable to any us presidents, an attempt by the donald trump administration to, uh, you know, play a role like, oh, he's gonna cut a deal between russia and ukraine as if he some kind of neutral outside arbiter is just patently false. this is ultimately a conflict between russia and the united states and the united states. it is a proxy war, but it is a conflict to the us is losing, and trump owns that conflict. as soon as he comes into office and whatever, he may think of the average him and zalinski and in person in whatever, you know, political domestic gripes he has against them justified. he does not want to be known as the president to hand the ukraine over to vladimir pro. no us president wants that on that record. so i predict that the war will continue,

it will excel accelerate. it will escalate. and when clinton talks to donald trump or his, you know, envoys or whatever and says yes, you know, oh thank you very much, but yet, yeah, it means net and then everyone will whisper in trump's years. you need to show strengths to have peace. you, you need to escalate in order to de escalate and trump himself has already promised to flood ukraine with weapons. and what weapons i have no idea because even he's admitted to the us military, industrial complex doesn't have them. but if you refuse, is his grand deal. so i think that the, the war will get nasty or will getting more desperate. we'll continue to see more of bombings of civilian buildings, assassinations, the space of um, a cambridge team intelligence, arson attacks that are occurring throughout russia. at the moment. we'll see more

and more of these, you know, dirty tricks. i like to call them, you know, u. s. military might call them unconventional warfare because out of desperation and panic, they can't win on the battlefield. that's what they will turn to increasingly in charge to. and i've talked about this a great deal and it's not between i like marks approach to all of us. i think he's largely right. it's, it's, it's not a conflict between ukraine and russia. it's a proxy war. it's a nato proxy war against russia using ukraine here. and if there's got it going to be any kind of coming to terms, it's ne, tow bid is gonna be coming to, to not you ukraine, ukraine is a footnote, it's a, it's a side bar to all of this here. and that's why i've been very frustrated with the commentary. well, the guy cut i've called last leg is um i think mark is right. i don't know about the timeframe. nobody really does. but um, it is as long as the united states has not losing troops and they can keep printing

money. um, well, you know, the ukrainians are gonna suffer russians will suffer, the europeans will suffer. well, what's that to an american administration, george? you know, i think i agree with the visa, i think that so the united states, but late. so this has been kind of a good war. they're not losing any lives. it's that you brands on the russians been slobs losing lives by the tens and hundreds of thousands. so why not to keep it doing? the, the one carrier that i would introduce is that charles has clearly stated that he's going to end this war. that means he is going to launch a major diplomatic offensive to try to bring this to an end. um, initially at least i think rough, it kind of say no, i think russia would have to play long take this seriously. and then

really, really the question is, if there is some kind of a deep off, i would just say live. all right, we freeze the line of calls the line of conflicts here. at this point, i will put the whole issue of the you brain in nato. on the back burner would be would that still be acceptable? now i think, you know, obviously it's a very bad deal for a terrible deal because russel then gets nothing out of it. however, i have been times in the past in the quite recent bus route. actually we had seemed willing to accept bad deals and the not coming is something that a clinic is matter of concern. i mean, we saw at the minutes, minutes was a while and 2 very bad ideas or option a rush or not. i mean sign those deals, but went on for 8 years. you're continually complaining, why don't you adhering to men's? when it was obvious to anyone that goes to west wasn't going to attempt them in stock,

most of which was just using minutes in order to strengthen your brain for and eventually offensive. that was clearly on the cards. and i think that's why a so largely this, it was special as the s m o in uh, february 2022. and then of course, again rush, it was ready to sign in december. oh, which again was a bad deal for russian, but russian was, was ready to sign it and put it has repeatedly proclaimed lou. yeah, we were ready to sign. we get our signatures are on the paper. so i don't think that's going to be in the like the in the and then i think when, once that the trump initiative kind of comes to a dead end, then i think who a, the trump administration will escalate and i think escalate. okay, it's rough and um i, in my address my concern, i can't rule out fully. the restroom will sign off with something like, okay, march synthesized. everything we've already heard here because we have a 3 different kind of approaches. do a go ahead. yeah. and don't forget the austin,

not a framework for syria, which was another bad deal for russia. yep. that said, blew back on them. catastrophically with our to well, i'm sorry to interrupt mark because it's we, you and i had a different conversation, a different venue about this. how is the failure of us, of the going to influence russian thinking in 2025. go ahead. well, 1st of all, i think that um, of russia is certainly has reduced the influence and power projection capability in the middle east. i do not believe that russia will maintain military bases in the syria, even if or no one wants them there. that's not, that's not going to happen. russia doesn't want to be under the leverage of, of our to one and i'll call you to, to maintain their bases. they're apparently, they're already trying to shift resources from those bases to libya. however,

that's another risky situation. i think if they do that, roscoe will almost certainly get burned again. and ultimately they will decide that the africa and the middle east are outside of rushes, geo political horizons, and they will do what many russian critics of of who have said over the last decade is that russia should focus on ukraine. they should double down on ukraine and they should accept no compromises. no bad means. but again, that is a refrain that you hear in russian politics, right? no, no more. is them bulls? no more austin all frameworks. everything has to be settled from a position of strands on the battlefield, but there is no wiggle room. there is no coming back from them. and if it does agree to another bad deal, that will be the end of putting politically in russia. i. that is something that

almost seems unimaginable right after the last 2 decades. but i assure you, it is imaginable, especially among the military generals, the political elite in the country. right. and an ordinary russians, right. the russians that have sacrificed so much of the opprobrium. uh and, you know, russia to trade the collective punishment of the west, the effects on the economy, the death, some tens of thousands of russian soldiers in ukraine. i don't think that the russian people will accept anything less than victory that has been defined by the russian president and the kremlin again and again unwaveringly. since the beginning of the conflict and has not wavered, has only strengthened since george before we go to the break here. get my mark is that a lot there? is the american the incoming administration?

did they realize what would something like would mark had to say to um, yeah, i think so. i mean, i and then i think that if they get something like that, if they can get a roster to agree to some view that they've been hinting at and it leads to the downhill boot. and i agree with marketing that the, the differential signs onto that it will eat on the maps not immediately, but it will lead to the end of the who to the market to think, hey, this is a good deal for us. we have done rather well out of it, which is why again, the rush breakfast would stay very, very far from any kind of a deal. sure. so, you know, achieving the goals and i think ultimately the goal has to be regime change in to you because you know, any do, well i, you know, you will, we will freeze the line of house. and what are you still got a problem? the unit size fit me, throw on your wallet. this is a conversation i had with mark many, many moons ago, and he said that they should have been redeemed change of the res. seem change back

in 2014 gentlemen. i'm going to jump in here. we're going to go into a go to a short break, and after that short break, we'll continue our discussion on the new year 2025. stay with our case the . to take a fresh look around. there's a life kaleidoscopic. isn't just a shifted reality distortion by power to division with no real live indians. fixtures, design to simplify will confuse really once a better wills and is it just as a chosen few fractured images presented as 1st?

can you see through their illusion going underground? can the the the the welcome act across software. all things are considered. i'm peter lavelle to

mind you were discussing the new year 2025. the . okay, let's go back to mark my market. the end of november, beginning of december of last year, we saw a, an event that no one in that i know of predicted. it was the complete collapse of the state. and sovereignty of syria. is this the or d'oeuvre on the menu for the middle east for 20? 25. is this the some the beginning of something? a developing trend? because there is so many moving pieces we have a has the law that is still vulnerable. a b. i can't remember the last time 11 on had a real government. and if the is re lease with american backing and its the west bank. um, uh, we're gonna have

a huge refugee problem going into jordan. jordan goes already packed full of people that are refugees. we have no idea what the serious, what the, what used to be called syria is going to look like. and then we have a rack is an important point even it ran. so i've kind of said a lot of pieces on the board move. whichever one you want to go ahead, mark. yeah. so in the middle east was inflame already, you know, before this, the events in syria and the year, you know, what came to a close and, and the conflagration of the middle east will only continue into the next year. i think that syria is most likely to become both a failed and properly a fractured state. i syria will now be the humpty dumpty, who fell off the wall and all the king's horses are all the heads, your mom's horses, all the hedge minds man will not be able to put syria back together again. i think it is very likely that the dis,

stabilisation from syria will extend at least into lab and on and a rack potentially further abroad. i think we will see increased direct, the open conflict between israel and the us on one side and iran on the other. you know, look for air strikes on on, um uh, e, ron's nuclear facilities which iraq is real, is now salivating about now that they're so happy that all of syria's air defense has disappeared overnight and then yahoo has been openly talking about it. i think we will also see the palestinian problem come to an end with the complete ethnic cleansing over the next 4 years of the palestinian people from the territory of, of greater israel. that way. i mean, we, we, we just saw headlines in the western media over the last week talking about, well,

you know, uh, israel is taking part of syria out, but, you know, it's miles, borders have fluctuated throughout history. right. i mean, the way they're there that have moved to have have moved so israel's borders are on the move and the palestinians will become what the jewish people once were a nomadic people without a whole them, it will not just be gods. i think it will be brought into the west bank as well. and, and for finale, we're going to see economic turmoil throughout the world as trump begins is much uh, talked about terra for a renewal. busy of the tariff war, not only on american adversaries, but on america now i as well so, so buckle off every where for economic term on george, i mean a market is set up a lot there. i mean, it's really interesting when we look at what's going on in what's called the greater middle east west asia and institute here moniker. um, but i mean there's,

there's some very interesting complex being played out and i'm not looking at states, okay. states in this region are very, very weak for the most part, um, you can even make that case about israel and it's into our little politics, but none of the less here you have a new ottoman is um, you have american head gemini, and is really zionism i mean, that's a very interesting parlay in a small geographical space. go ahead, george. go ahead. it is indeed, but what has what turned out in 20232024. and what israel has demonstrated, hey, we can do all of this. and we can get away with it and basically just israel's adversaries, that has taken the hit and concrete, all of the predictions and somehow israel's into our little trouble. and that the, the access of resistance is going to crush israel. now it's gone the other way. so what does that mean with the,

with the incoming very design is the administration of the trunk, is that this is the opportunity that they've been looking for versus the american zion is lovely. and because israel to reorganize the middle east web ideas ro, once and for all, this is the 1st time and it says you once in parole can dispense with the full of its enemies and play serious sir. it was a very big deal for israel. know that it was it, you know, the long standing ally. so simply the soviet union was always the, the one on the question, the ally of a so read unit. and then, oh, russia, that's gone. and, and so now, you know, the, the, it's in iran that's in the cross hairs and what are they going to do with it? without any question at all? drunk is going to launch. this is a maximum pressure campaign. 2 point. oh. and you will find all kinds of separate

this move, when's the emerging any wrong in a blue gaze? those areas um arabs tubs codes, and one of which will, of course, be sponsored by the united states and then into around the world. we'll find most of the liberal movements emerging, you know, women will be demonstrating, taking off that he jobs. and the michael, the guy says democracy is thriving. and then of course, given the, so the chaos that's, let's go to emerge and syria, isis, isis is everywhere. you know, somehow, you know, that we, you know, we have to deal with isis and the americans are going to say it as a real life is suddenly, suddenly, suddenly they came back suddenly and he came back. we have to deal with it and that's with the moment when they gonna stop bombing iran directly as like just as a bonus, syria direct as a, we're going to deal with license or some raging change. have also been removing regime change, which is bombing isis. so why don't you allow that? you know, you've just got to stop bombing iraq,

then of course you just continue escal. yeah, i, i'm trying to get, i'm really confused. the difference between isis and l. chi though. okay, maybe maybe a topic for another program mark, go ahead. jump in. yeah, um, the current de facto ruler of syria in damascus, al gilani, he was the leader of isis in syria. right. the deputy advice is the leader in syria. and he then became the leader of joe bought all moves throughout, re branded as i you to hear all shot. so what is the distinction? i, i, you know, i don't think there is one as well. so i is, this is most definitely back because they just over through, you know, whether you want to call it ices are all kind of, but the solid is the, you know, they just, over through the, the government in, in, in syria. so that is, you know, not something that is, it will have repercussions, it will have uh,

blow back. and i think that if the us in israel go about another 2 point, oh george w bush, attempt to re make the mid the east that inevitably it will fail, they will topple some enemies in evident and eminently. they will create new enemies and new geo political problems that they will settled themselves like just as they did with the explosive influence of the rod in the region after the overthrow of saddam hussein, unintended consequences. yeah, i, uh, this time it will be different. they always tell us that, okay, this time it will be different. george were rapidly running out of time. but you know, china is always on the menu here. how is that going to play out in 2025. we've already heard about the tariffs, they trump in ministration is going to pursue. um, what is it the uh navy general said 20272028. the conflict with china?

well, it's 2025. go ahead. i think that's a, again, a china will be definitely a preoccupation of the trump administration. the kind of an interesting because it's obviously going to be in economic conflict. i mean, i don't think it's going to be about taiwan shopping. show no particular interest in the whole taiwan issue, anything on like buying and he refused to make any commitment to coming to taiwan is assistance in the event of an invasion. so i think it's going to be, and he's going to wage a serious a economic war against china. and particularly he's going to wage a war against china throughout the world. you know, he's going to crack down the countries that are doing deals with china. you know, some of this is going to stop black mailing, extorting countries that are assigned on through china, including, including friends and allies. exactly. you know, use you sign on through this with, with china. you know, you've been a, you know, the china is going to build

a portfolio right away for you. you're going to feel better off of the united states. and i think that's always going to wait wage this war against china market . the last pontificating words without giving a prediction. go ahead. yeah, i don't. i don't think we should completely write off military conflict with china as, as the tariff or will escalate the economic war. tensions will grow on the ground and trump has brought people in noticed the deputy secretary of state l bridge. colby is one of the most blaming war mongering. china hawks imaginable. and trump may not care about the taiwan straits, but the taiwan straits care about, you know, him, right. they, they, they care about, you know, the united states and the south china sea might be an even bigger flash point. then the taiwan straits. although intrinsically they are linked together. so, i mean,

again, there's only 3 types of, of us, of foreign policy and political lead. they all want war with russia, china, e, ron, they just prioritize which of those 3 wars they want more. well, i mean, they had in 2025, which one is which one is on the top of the totem pole? i would have to say e, ron, but china comes close behind and russia hasn't gone away. george? yep. what, what's your, what's your ranking? i think i think it's the russian. 5 any around in china? ok, we still got 30 seconds. go ahead. george. as well. i think it so because russian work is the ongoing want and, and therefore, because i think this is going to be the subject of, at least for the 1st 6 months, maybe even the year of the trump administration. i've tried to deal with this uh, ukraine issue that's i think it's going to be very dangerous because i think it's, it's probably will fail. and if these initiative fails,

then i think trunk will escalate and try to take risks. you know, that he sees himself as a risk beta and, and that's when it gets good. good, good for. okay. okay. i hope everybody had a good new year because according to my esteem, guess here is gonna be to be a pretty gloomy and dreary 2025. anyway, i want to thank my guest in budapest and here in moscow. and of course, i want to thank our viewers for watching us here at our to see you next time. remember, the,

in the early 1880 brands decided to subjugate madagascar. however, the mother got the kingdom, refused to submit it $1883.00. during the 1st franco mail, i guess they wore the french sent a punitive expedition to abhor submission on the island. the aggressors ships brutally bombarded the coastal settlements. the invaders managed to forcefully impose control over in madagascar and external affairs. but the french wanted more of you years later they started a full scale village area invasion ended. 18. $95.00 captured the capital 10 to mallory. though the commonest exiled queen, run of all on the 3rd and are prime minister rieney a letter of une abroad. then the invaders began to clear the island from the malcontents, with an iron and blood in 18. 96 france declared. a protector is over man, a gas guard, and in $1897.00 antics the island. the suppression of the liberation movement erupted,

merciless massacre. the capture of madagascar are led to tragic consequences. natural resources were in the hands of french corporations. all local schools were closed. and the french language was imposed on the population there last in 15 years and resulted in the death of at least 100000 mile a gas the people, the colonial regime left an open wound in the history of madagascar. but violence was never able to suppress the malagasy striving for freedom. the number of many places in the world where you can stay on the divide between the 2 oceans. and the you might not think kids. one of them is, hey, english is northern. i found your vision in the channels that us national park. and

today's, when you organize the, was a stuff was from taking a deep side into some beach because the, the the, the, the gun and below the, showing the school in murray, opal, o'rando. what's the length of it off to the battles for the city? ukrainian soldiers turn the children's classrooms into machine gun tests and doing retreats. they mind the school library in the gym, although it could be used as the ukranian history textbooks,