is against the unarmed pheasants because a particular stir. the entire male population became victims. trying to surprise the gorilla movement, the occupiers relocated 500000 people to concentration camps. for roses, cruel de boer its fruit, the patriots were scattered. however, the british experienced the strength of the malay resistance to the full extent, the british army losses in the la where the largest since the end of world war 2. in 1957, the british empire was forced to recognize malay in independence. the resilience of them a late people put an end to the history of british colonialism in south east asia. the . the

hello and welcome across the top were all things are considered and peter lavelle, it would be nice to see in the new year with some optimism. unfortunately, this is not the case. the accumulation and deepening of many problems from last year are still very much with us. so fucking love brace for impact, the cross fucking 2025 on joined by my guess george. send me while we and booty fast. he's a pod counselor at the guy go, which be found on youtube and locals, and here in moscow we crossed to marks or boulder. he's an international relations and security analyst, right, building cross lock roles and effect. that means you can jump anytime you want. and i always appreciate it, mark, i'm going to go to you 1st and i'm going to kind of give you a to vent a little bit here during 2020 for

a lot of people we know in the pod cast world in the alternative media world in the world we're really kind of obsessed with predictions. and well, there's a lot of a gotten a lot of faces the go around here. and so i would really like to avoid unless program to work on predictions because i think it's a useless endeavor. okay? because most people end up being wrong and they don't always admit to it unfortunately. so having said that, i would like to look at developing trends. ok, now we've just talked about what happened in 2024. given that conversation, what happened in 2024? what kind of developing trends from the last year do we feel? do we see going into this new year mark as well? i, i think that you know, the 1st the elephant row in the room is the conflict in, in ukraine. i, i do not believe that the conflict and ukraine will,

will end in the next year. i think the trend of the acceleration and the escalation of the conflict will continue despite you know, uh, you know, but the new us administration of donald trump coming into office in the united states simply because i do not believe that there is. any beal that the u. s. president, whoever that us present it is, can offer a russia that russian will accept. and, and russia's terms are unacceptable to any us presidents, an attempt by the donald trump administration to, you know, play a role they, oh, he's going to cut a deal between russia and ukraine as if he some kind of neutral outside arbiter is just patently false. this is ultimately a conflict between russia and the united states and the united states. it is a proxy war, but it is a conflict to the us is losing,

and trump owns that conflict. as soon as he comes into office and whatever, he may think of the average him and zalinski and in person in whatever, you know, political domestic gripes he has against them justified. he does not want to be known as the president to hand the ukraine over to vladimir pro. no us president wants that on that record. so i predict that the war will continue, it will excel accelerate. it will escalate. and when porton talks to donald trump, or he is, you know, envoys or whatever and says yes, you know, oh thank you very much, but yet, yeah, it means net and then everyone will whisper in trump's years. you need to show strengths to have peace. you, you need to escalate in order to de escalate and trump himself has already promised to flood ukraine with weapons. and what weapons i have no idea because even he's

admitted to the us military, industrial complex doesn't have them. but if you refuse, is his grand deal. so i think that the, the war will get nasty or will getting more desperate will continue to see more of bombings of civilian buildings, assassinations, the space of um, a cambridge game intelligence, arson attacks that are occurring throughout russia. at the moment, we'll see more and more of these, you know, dirty tricks. i like to call them, you know, u. s. military might call them unconventional warfare because out of desperation and panic, they can win on the battlefield. that's what they will turn to increasingly. it charge you and i've talked about this a great deal and it's not between i like marks approach to all of us. i think he's largely right. it's, it's, it's not a conflict between ukraine and russia. it's

a proxy war. it's a nato proxy war against russia. using ukraine here, and if there's got it going to be any kind of coming to terms, it's nato bid is gonna be coming to, to are not you, ukraine, ukraine is a footnote, it's a, it's a side bar to all of this here. and that's why i've been very frustrated with the commentary. well, the guy who cut i've called last leg is, um, i think mark is right. i don't know about the time frame. nobody really does. but them, it is as long as the united states has not losing troops, and they can keep printing money. well, you know, the ukrainians are gonna suffer russians will suffer, the europeans will suffer. well, what's that to an american administration, george? now i think i agree with that visa, i think that i'm so the united states for late. so this has been, it's kind of a good war. they're not losing any lives, it's the ukrainians. and the russians been slobs losing lives by the tens and

hundreds of thousands. so why not to keep it doing? the one kelly at that i would introduce is that trump has clearly stated that he's going to end this war. that means he is going to launch a major diplomatic offensive to try to bring this done in. um, initially i believe so, i think rough, it kind of say no, i think russia would have to play long take this seriously. and then it really, really question is if there is some guide or the on off, i would just say look, all right, we freeze the line of calls a line of conflicts here at this wind. i will put the whole issue of the you brain in nato. on the back burner with these that would that be will be acceptable. now i think, you know, obviously it's a very bad deal for a terrible deal because rustling gets nothing out of it. however,

i have been times in the past in the quite recent bust reaction and seemed willing dukes and bad deals. and that's, i think is something that a clinic is, is matter of concern. i mean, we saw at the minutes, minutes was a while and 2 very bad ideas or i'm sure a rush or not, i mean sign those deals, but went on for 8 years. you're continually complaining, why aren't you adhering to means when it was obvious to anyone, the, because the with wasn't going to, it hasn't been score, it goes away. so just using minutes in order to strengthen your brain for and eventually offensive. that was clearly on the cards and i think that's why a russell launch leap was that was special as the s m o in uh, february 2022. and then of course again rush, it was ready to sign a december bill, which again was a bad deal for russian. but russia was, was ready to sign it and put it has repeatedly proclaimed lou. yeah,

we were ready to sign. we get lost signatures. are on the paper, so i don't think that's going to be in the like the in the and then i think when once that the trump initiative kind of comes to a dead end, then i think really the trumpet ministration will escalate and i think to escalate okay, it's rough. um, but i in my advertise concern, i can't rule out fully. the restroom will sign on for something like okay, march synthesized. everything we've already heard here because we have got 3 different kind of approaches to a go ahead. yeah. and don't forget the austin, on a framework for syria, which was another bad deal for russia. yeah. that said, blew back on them. catastrophic. we are with our to, well, i'm sorry to interrupt mark because it's we, you and i had a different conversation, a different venue about this. how is the failure of us in a going to influence the russian thinking in 2025. go ahead. um. well, 1st of all, i think that um,

of russia is certainly has reduced influence and power projection capability in the middle east. i do not believe that russia will maintain military bases in the syria, even if or no one wants them there. ah, that's not, that's not going to happen. russia doesn't want to be under the leverage of, of our to one and i'll call you to, to maintain their bases there. apparently they're already trying to shift resources from those bases to libya. however, that's another risky situation. i, i think if they do that, roscoe will almost certainly get burned again. and ultimately they will decide that the africa and the middle east are outside of rushes, geo political horizons, and they will do what many russian critics of of who have said over the last decade is that russia should focus on ukraine. they should double down on

ukraine and they should accept no compromises. no bad means. but again, that is a refrain that you hear in russian politics, right? no, no more. is them bulls? no more austin all frameworks. everything has to be settled from a position of strands on the battle field that there is no wiggle room. there is no coming back from them. and if it does agree to another bad deal, that will be the end of putting politically in russia. i. that is something that almost seems unimaginable right after the last 2 decades. but i assure you, it is a magical, especially among the military generals, the political elite in the country. right. and an ordinary russians, right. the russians that have sacrificed so much of the opprobrium. uh and, you know, russia patriot, the collective punishment of the west, the effects on the economy, the death,

some tens of thousands of russian soldiers in ukraine. i don't think that the russian people will accept anything less than victory that has been defined by the russian president and the kremlin again and again unwaveringly. since the beginning of the conflict and has not wavered, has only strengthened since george before we go to the break here. get my mark is that a lot there? is the american the incoming administration? did they realize what would something like would mark had to say? or um yeah, i think so, i mean, i, and then i think that if they get something like that, if they can get russia to agree to some view that they've been hinting at, i need to lead still the down for food and i agree with marketing that the, the fresh of science onto that it will eat on the maps not immediately, but it will lead to the end of who the americans who think, hey, this is

a good deal for us. we have done rather well out of it, which is why again, uh, the rush breakfast would stay very, very fall from any kind of a deal. sure. so, you know, achieving the goals and i think ultimately the goal has to be regime change in care because you know, any do, well i, you know, you will, what will freeze the line of house and what are you still got a problem? the unit size fit me, throw on your boat and this is a conversation i had with mark many, many moons ago, and he said that they should have been redeemed change of the regime change back in 2014 gentlemen. i'm going to jump in here. we're going to go into a go to a short break, and after that short break, we'll continue our discussion on the new year 2025. stay with our team. the

the eclipse, without even a cpd with the story page. go level the use of solutions, stuff that you see to shifting each look forward. which to she could have been collected, ftp 2 for could be susceptible to discredit the dizzy on this before they have to do the feature that you create, excuse that our name is which is sort of spurious of disposable cleaning. some the doors not say that the which is done. conflicting the thoughts about pushing of centuries ago. your forebears name this country ukraine or frontier

because your steps blink, europe, and asia, the ukrainians that become frontiersman of another. so these people will be able to see this one is which of the high from most of them there's always, you know, going to try to jump to the most goals and would have been data. and i said one of the heavily, which is cool, man joe, point on the post, co pays gift to 2nd the we'll have to upgrade the stuff on the, the welcome, ect, across software. all things are considered. i'm peter lavelle to mind you were discussing the new year 2025.

the . okay, let's go back to mark my market. the end of november, beginning of december of last year, we saw a in events that no one in that i know of predicted. it was the complete collapse of the state and sovereignty of syria. is this the order of on the menu for the middle east for 20? 25. is this the some the beginning of something a developing trend? because there is so many moving pieces, we have a has the law that is still vulnerable, a b, i can't remember the last time 11 on had a real government a if the is re lease with american backing and x, the west bank. um uh we're gonna have a huge refugee problem going into jordan jordan, who is already packed full of people that are refugees. we have no idea what the

series would be, what used to be called syria is going to look like. and then we have a rack is input, apply even around. so i've kind of said a lot of pieces on the board move, whatever one you want to go ahead mark. yeah. so the middle east was in flame. uh, already you know, before this, the events in syria and the year you know, what came to a close and, and the conflagration of the middle east will only continue into the next year. i think that syria is most likely to become both a failed and properly a fractured state. i, i, it's a, syria will now be the humpty dumpty who fell off the wall. busy and all the king's horses are all the hedge funds, horses and all the hedge minds man will not be able to put syria back together again. i think it is very likely that the dis, stabilisation from syria will extend at least into lab and on and

a rack potentially further abroad. i think we will see increased direct, an open conflict between israel and the us on one side and iran on the other. you know, look for. busy for air strikes on on, um uh, e, ron's nuclear facilities which iraq is real, is now salivating about now that they're so happy that all of syria's air defense has disappeared overnight and then yahoo has been openly talking about it. i think we will also see the palestinian problem come to an end with the complete ethnic cleansing over the next 4 years of the palestinian people from the territory of, of greater israel. that way. i mean, we, we, we just saw headlines in the western media over the last week talking about, well, you know, uh, israel is taking part of syria out, but, you know, it's roles,

borders have fluctuated throughout history. right. i mean it's the way they're there that have moved to have, have moved. so israel's borders are on the move. and palestinians will become what the jewish people once were a nomadic people without a whole and they will not just be gods. i think it will be brought into the west bank as well. and, and for finale, we're going to see economic turmoil throughout the world as trump begins is much. uh, talked about tariff war a renewal. busy of the tariff war, not only on american adversaries, but on america now i as well so, so buckle off every where for economic term on george, i mean a market is set up a lot there. i mean, it's really interesting when we look at what's going on in what's called the greater middle east west asia, again to hear moniker. but, i mean there's, there's a very interesting complex being played out. no, not looking at states,

okay. states in this region are very, very weak for the most part, um, you can even make that case about israel and its internal politics, but none of the less here. you have a new ottoman ism, you have american head gemini, and is really design is i'm, i mean, that's a very interesting parlay in a small geographical space. go ahead, george. a good. it is indeed, but what has turned out in 20232024. and what israel has demonstrated, hey, we can do all of this and we can get away with it. and basically just israel's adversaries that have taken the hit and concrete, all of the predictions are somehow israel's in terrible trouble. and that the, the excess of resistance is going to crush israel. now it's going to the other way . so what does that mean with the, with the incoming very zion is the administration of the trunk. that is that this

was the opportunity and that they've been looking for this is the american design is lobby. and that goes israel to reorganize the middle east web. i use ro once and for all, this is the 1st time and it says you once and broke and dispense with both of its enemies and clearly serious sir. it was a very big deal. uh for israel. know that it was it, you know, the long standing ally, so simply the soviet union was always the one on the questions, the ally of a so read unit. and then, oh, russia, that's gong. and, and so now, you know, the, the, it's in iran that's in the cross hairs and what are they going to do without any question? it's all drunk is going to launch. this is a maximum pressure campaign. 2 point. oh. and you will find all kinds of separate this move and so the merging any around, you know, pollute, gives us areas um,

arabs, tags codes. and one of which will, of course be sponsored by the united states and then into around the world. we'll find most of the, some liberal movements emerging, you know, women will be demonstrating, taking off that he jobs. and the michael, the guy says democracy is thriving. and then of course, so given this of the chaos that's, let's go to emerge and syria, isis. isis is everywhere. you know, so huh. you know, that we, you know, we have to deal with isis and the americans are going to say it as a realized as sudden, like suddenly, suddenly they came back suddenly and it came back. we have to deal with that and that's with the moment when they're gonna stop bombing iran directly as a, just as a bonus, syria directly saying we're going to deal with isis or salt region change have also been removing regime change, which is bombing isis. so why don't you allow that? you know, you've just got to stop bombing iraq. then of course you just continue escal. yeah, i, i'm trying to get,

i'm really confused. the difference between isis and i'll kind of okay, maybe, maybe a topic for another program mark, go ahead and jump in. yeah. um, the current de facto ruler of syria in damascus. l. gilani, he was the leader of isis in syria. right. the deputy advice is the leader in syria and he then became the leader of joe bought all moves throughout, re branded as i've yet to hear all shawn. so what is the distinction? i, i, you know, i don't think there is one as well. so i is, this is most definitely back because they just over through, you know, whether you want to call it ices are all kind of, but the self is the, you know, they just over through the, the government in, in, in syria. so that is, you know, not something that is, it will have rubber cushions it will have uh, blow back. and i think that if the us in israel go about another

2 point, oh george w bush attempts to re make the middle east that inevitably it will fail, they will topple some enemies in evident and eminently. they will create new enemies and new geo political problems. that they will saddled themselves like just as they did with the explosive influence of the rod in the region after the overthrow of saddam hussein, unintended consequences. yeah. this time it will be different. they always tell us that, okay, this time it will be different. george were rapidly running out of time, but you know, china is always on the menu here. how is that going to play out in 2025. we've already heard about the tariffs that the trump administration is going to pursue. um, what is it the uh, a navy general said 2027. 2028. the conflict with china? well, it's 2025. go ahead. well, i think that's a, again, china will be definitely

a preoccupation of the trump administration. the kind of an interesting because it's obviously going to be in economic conflict. i mean, i don't think it's going to be about taiwan trump or show no particular interest in the whole taiwan issue. any effect on like buying him. he refused to make any commitment to coming to taiwan is assistance in the event of an invasion. so i think it's going to be and he's going to wage a serious a economic war against china. and particularly, he's going to wage a war against china throughout the world. you know, he's going to track down the countries that are doing deals with china. you know, some of this is going to stop black mainland extorting countries that are assigned onto china, including, including friends and allies. exactly. you know, use you sign on through this with, with china. you know, you've been a, you know, the china is going to build a portfolio railway for you. you've got a field across the united states. i think that's always good to wait wage this war

against china market. we're last pontificating words without giving a prediction. go ahead. yeah, i don't. i don't think we should completely right off military conflict with china as, as the tariff or will escalate the economic war. tensions will grow on the ground and is trump has brought people in. notice the deputy secretary of state l bridge. colby is one of the most laming war monger in china hawks imaginable. and trump may not care about the taiwan straits, but the taiwan straits care about you know, him right. they, they, they, they care about, you know, the united states and the south china sea might be an even bigger flash point. then the taiwan straits. although intrinsically they are linked together. so, i mean, again, there's only 3 types of, of us, of foreign policy and political a lee,

they all want war with russia, china, e, ron, they just prioritize which of those 3 wars they want more. well, i mean, they had in 2025, which one is which one is on the top of the totem pole? i, i would have to say e, ron, but china comes close behind and russia hasn't gone away. george, hep, what, what's your, what's your ranking? i think i think it's the russian of any around in china. ok. we still got 30 seconds. go ahead. george. so, well, i think it so because russian work is the ongoing one and, and therefore because i think this is going to be the subject of at least for the 1st 6 months, maybe even the year of the trump administration. i've tried to deal with this uh, ukraine issue that's i think it's going to be very dangerous because i think it's probably will fail. and if these initiative fails, then i think trump will escalate and try to take risks that you know, that he sees himself as a risk beta and, and that's when it gets good. good,

good for. okay. okay. i hope everybody had a good new year because according to my esteem guest here is going to be a be a pretty gloomy and dreary 2025. anyway, i want to take my guess in budapest and here in moscow. and of course, i want to thank our viewers for watching us here at our to see you next time. remember, the look forward to talking to you all that technology should work for people. a robot must obey the orders given by human beings, except we're such shorter is that conflict with the 1st law show your mind. in

justification, we should be very careful about our personal intelligence. and the point obviously is to create a trust rather than fit the various jobs. i mean with the artificial intelligence, we have somebody with them in the robot must protect this phone. existence was on the or the

the 2025 is here in moscow and beyond. patients around the globe lights up the night sky, with my celebrations, holding the door and all the new. yeah. right now it's time to load everything that we bought for 1st of all, the for the, for suited for here and a lot of presence. of course, now what the funds of the bottom of the field near i had danger all was present are the helps bring new year celebrations to the children of dunbar. and ivory coast adds its name until the growing list of countries that are taking out the french troops from the african continent in 2025. thank.