so every time it's emotional, when you see these kids who still believe in magic, they believe in front are false or sound of cost depending wherever you're from. and once they receive the presence of that asked for in a letter there she's changes drastically. and so the happened is on their face and the faces of the parents that were here. and this gives me, in particular, a charge from the rest of the year because of all the kind this notice come around and remind people that live under constant shooting by you praying in military. it's certainly a very valuable to seamless camaraderie, right here in portland communication. ringback we will continue doing this for as long as needed because each year i hope it's the last time we're doing this and the conflict vote and and the school will be able to organize these forties by by

themselves without the need over moscow, santa claus, or must go find it for us, but of course my team and i will be doing this for as long as these will be bringing the happiness and the police. imagine the kids that live here on the front line or before you go, let's give you a recap and we'll be able to, it's not hot breaking your story here on the how to international. i've got to stand at least 10 people have been killed off for a pickup truck plowed into pack new year's celebrations in the heart of new orleans . a video circulating on line, apparently catching the by the police open fire on the perpetrator. the, the, the taking place where they're on bourbon street, very popular tourist location. there was jam packed, celebrating the new. yeah. according to witnesses off of the drive, i've got out of his truck. he opened fire. we understand at least a certain people to insure the car seat. there's no information on the public trade,

but we're going to get all the details to you the, the moment that come to us here in the us international with all the updates are going up online as well, with a website called multi is live on air and online, we'll see what the company, the, the, [000:00:00;00] the hello and welcome to cross top where all things are considered and peter lavelle, it would be nice to see in the new year with some optimism. unfortunately, this is not the case. the accumulation and deepening of many problems from last

year are still very much with us. so fucking love brace for impact. the cross talking 2025 on joined by my guess george samuel, we in budapest, he's a pod cast where the guy go, which be found on youtube and locals. and here in moscow we crossed to marks or boulder. he's an international relations and security analyst, right? building cross lock roles in effect, that means it can jump any time you want. and i always appreciate it, mark, i'm going to go to you 1st and i'm good. it kind of give to vent a little bit here during 2024. a lot of people we know in the pod cast world in the alternative media world in the world. we're really kind of obsessed with predictions. and well, there's a lot of a gotten a lot of faces the go around here. and so i would really like to avoid in this

program to work on predictions because i think it's a useless endeavor. okay? because most people end up being wrong and they don't always admit to it unfortunately. so having said that, i would like to look at developing trends. ok, now we've just talked about what happened in 2024. given that conversation, what happened in 2024? what kind of developing trends from the last year do we feel? do we see going into this new year mark as well? i, i think that you know, the 1st the elephant row in the room is the conflict in, in ukraine. i, i do not believe that the conflict and ukraine will, will end in the next year. i think the trend of the acceleration and the escalation of the conflict will continue despite you know, uh, you know, but the new us administration of donald trump coming into office in the united

states simply because i do not believe that there is any deal that the u. s. president, whoever that us present it is going to offer russia that russian will accept and, and russia's terms are unacceptable to any us presidents, an attempt by the donald trump administration to, uh, you know, play a role in, oh, he's going to cut a deal between russia and ukraine as if he some kind of neutral outside arbiter is just patently false. this is ultimately a conflict between russia and the united states. uh, on the united states. it is a proxy war, but it is a conflict to the us is losing, and trump owns that conflict. as soon as he comes into office and whatever, he may think of the average him and zalinski and in person in whatever, you know, political domestic rides he has against them justified. he does not want to be

known as the president to hand the ukraine over to vladimir pro. no, us president wants that on that record. so i predict that the. busy will continue, it will excel accelerate, it will escalate. and when porton talks to donald trump or his, you know, envoys or whatever and says yes, you know, oh thank you very much, but yet, yeah, it means net and then everyone will whisper in trump's years. you need to show strengths to have peace, you, you need to escalate in order to de escalate and trump himself has already promised to flood ukraine with weapons. and what weapons i have no idea because even he's admitted to the us military, industrial complex doesn't have them. but if you refuse, is his grand deal. so i think that the war will get nasty or will getting more desperate will continue to see more of bombings of civilian buildings,

assassinations, the space of um, a cambridge him. intelligence are sent attacks that are occurring throughout russia . at the moment. we'll see more and more of these, you know, dirty tricks. i like to call them, you know, u. s. military might call them unconventional warfare because out of desperation and panic, they can't win on the battlefield. that's what they will turn to increasingly in charge here. and i've talked about this a great deal and it's not between i like marks approach to all of us. i think he's largely right. it's, it's, it's not a conflict between ukraine and russia. it's a proxy war. it's a nato proxy war against russia using ukraine here. and if there's got it going to be any kind of coming to terms, it's nato bid is gonna be coming to to not you ukraine. ukraine is a footnote, it's a, it's a side bar to all of this here. and that's why i've been very frustrated with the

commentary. well, the guy i've cut, i've called last leg is, um, i think mark is right. i don't know about the timeframe. nobody really does, but it is as long as the united states is not losing troops and they can keep printing money. well, you know, the ukrainians are going to suffer russians will suffer, the europeans will suffer. well, what's that to an american administration, george? you know, i think i agree with that these are, i think that so the united states for late. so this has been kind of a good war then on losing any lives. it's the ukrainians on the russians. been slobs losing lives by the tens and hundreds of thousands. so why not to keep it doing? the one kelly at that i would introduce is that trump has clearly stated that he's going to end this war. that means he is going to launch

a major diplomatic offensive to try to bring this done in. um, initially i believe so. think rough it come up say no, i think russia would have to play long. take this seriously. and then it really will. the question is, if there is some guide or the on off, i would just say look, all right, we freeze the line of calls the line of conflicts here at this point. um with the whole issue of uh, your brain and nato on the back burner. um with these uh, would that be acceptable now i think, you know, obviously it's a very bad deal for a terrible deal because russel then gets nothing out of it. however, um they have been times in the past in of quite recent buzz reaction and seemed willing dukes and bad deals. and, and that's, i think is something that a clinic is, is matter of concern. i mean, we saw at the min minutes was

a while and to very bad be as a roger, a rush or not, i need to sign those deals, but went on for 8 years. you're continually complaining what land you adhering to men's, when it was obvious to anyone that because the west wasn't going to, it hasn't been score, it goes away. so just using minutes in order to strengthen your brain for and eventually offensive. that was clearly on the cards and i think that's why a so largely this it was special as the s m o in uh, uh, february 2022. and then of course again rush, it was ready to sign at this time. oh, which again was a bad deal for russian, but russian was, was ready to sign it and it has repeatedly proclaimed lou. yeah, we were ready to sign. we get our signatures are on the paper. so i don't think that's going to be in the like a in the and then i think when once that the trump initiative kind of comes to a dead end, then i think really the trump administration will escalate. and i think the escalade kind of rough um, but i am,

i am concerned i can't rule out fully. the restroom will sign on for something like okay, march synthesized. everything we've already heard here because we have a 3 different kind of approaches to a go ahead. yeah. don't forget the austin on a framework for syria, which was another bad deal for russia. yeah. that said, blew back on them. catastrophically with our to well, i'm sorry to interrupt mark because it's we, you and i had a different conversation on a different venue about this. how is the failure of us in a going to influence the russian thinking in 2025. go ahead. um. well, 1st of all, i think that um, of russia is certainly has reduced the influence and power projection capability in the middle east. i do not believe that russia will maintain military bases in the syria, even if or no one wants them there. that's not, that's not going to happen. russia doesn't want to be under the leverage of, of,

i heard a one and all kinda to maintain their bases. they're apparently, they're already trying to shift resources from those bases to libya. however, that's another risky situation. i, i think if they do that, roscoe will almost certainly get burned again. and ultimately they will decide that the africa and the middle east are outside of rushes, geo political horizons, and they will do what many russian critics of of who have said over the last decade is that russia should focus on ukraine. they should double down on ukraine and they should accept no compromises. no bad means. but again, that is a refrain that you hear in russian politics, right? no, no more. is them bulls? no more austin all frameworks. everything has to be settled from a position of strands on the battle field that there is no wiggle room there is no

coming back from. and if it does agree to another bad deal that will be the end of putting politically in russia. i. that is something that almost seems unimaginable right after the last 2 decades. but i assure you, it is imaginable, especially among the military generals, the political elite in the country. right. and an ordinary russians, right. the russians that have sacrificed so much of the opprobrium. uh and uh, you know, russia teacher and the collective punishment of the west, the effects on the economy, the death, some tens of thousands of russian soldiers in ukraine. i don't think that the russian people will accept anything less than victory that has been defined by the russian president and the kremlin again and again unwaveringly.

since the beginning of the conflict and has not wavered, has only strengthened since george before we go to the break here. get my mark is that a lot there? is the american the incoming administration? did they realize would, would something like wouldn't mark had to say to um, yeah, i think so. i mean, i, and then i think that if they get something like that, if they can go to russia to agree to some view that they've been hinting at. and it leads to the downhill food and i agree with marketing that the the fresh assigns onto that it will eat on the maps not immediately, but it will lead to the end of the booted the americans who think hey, this is a good deal for us we have done rather well out of it, which is why again, uh, the rush breakfast would stay very, very fall from any kind of a deal. sure. so, you know, achieving the goals and i think ultimately the goal has to be raising change in care because our, you know, any, do, well, i, you know, you will,

we will freeze the line of house way. and what are you still got a problem? the unit size. ready me throw on your boat is this is a conversation i had with mark many, many moons ago, and he said that they should have been redeemed change of the res. seem change back in 2014 gentlemen. i'm going to jump in here. we're going to go into a go to a short break, and after that short break, we'll continue our discussion on the new year 2025. stay with our team, the show. they just don't have to see the house and engagement trails. when so many find themselves world support, we choose to look for common ground,

the the, the welcome, ect. across stock were all things are considered. i'm peter lavelle to mind you were discussing the new year 2025. the okay, let's go back to mark my market. the end of november, beginning of december of last year, we saw a, an event that no one in that i know of predicted. it was a complete collapse of the state and sovereignty of syria. is this the or d'oeuvre on the menu for the middle east for 20?

25. is this the some the beginning of something? a developing trend? because there is so many moving pieces we have a has the law that is still vulnerable. a b. i can't remember the last time living on had a real government. and if the is re lease with american backing and its the west bank. um uh, we're gonna have a huge refugee problem. going into jordan. jordan has already packed full of people that are refugees, and we have no idea what the series, what the, what used to be called syria is going to look like. and then we have a rack is an important point even it ran. so i've kind of said a lot of pieces on the board move, whatever one you want to go ahead mark. yeah. so in the middle east was inflame already, you know, before this, the events in syria and the year, you know, what came to a close and,

and the conflagration of the middle east will only continue into the next year. i think that syria is most likely to become both a failed and properly a fractured state. um i, i, uh, syria will now be the humpty dumpty, who fell off the wall and all the king's horses are all the heads, your mom's horses and all the head your minds man will not be able to put syria back together again. i think it is very likely that the dis, stabilisation from syria will extend at least into lab and on and a rack potentially further abroad. i think we will see increased direct open conflict between israel and the us on one side and iran on the other. you know, look for. busy for air strikes on, on uh, uh, e, ron's nuclear facilities which iraq is real, is now salivating about now that they're so happy that all of syria's air defense

has disappeared overnight and then yahoo has been openly talking about it. i think we will also see the palestinian problem come to an end with the complete ethnic cleansing over the next 4 years of the palestinian people from the territory of, of greater israel. that way. i mean, we, we, we just saw headlines in the western media over the last week talking about, well, you know, uh, israel is taking part of syria out, but, you know, is rose borders of fluctuated throughout history. right. i mean, the way they're there that have moved to have have moved so israel's borders are on the move and the palestinians will become what the jewish people once were a nomadic people without a whole them, it will not just be gods. i think it will be brought into the west bank as well. and, and for finale, we're going to see economic turmoil throughout the world as trump begins is much uh,

talked about terra for a renewal. busy of the tariff war, not only on american adversaries, but on america now i as well so, so buckle off every where for economics term on george, i mean a market is set up a lot there. i mean, it's really interesting when we look at what's going non in what's called the greater middle east west asia and institute here moniker. um, but i mean there's, there's a very interesting complex being played out and i'm not looking at states, okay. states in this region are very, very weak for the most part, um, you can even make that case about israel and its internal politics, but none of the less here you have a new ottoman is, um, you have american hegemony and is really zionism. i mean, that's a very interesting parlay in a small geographical space. go ahead, george. a good. it is indeed. but what has turned out in 20232024. and what israel has demonstrated, hey,

we can do all of this and we can get away with it and basically get israel's adversaries that have taken the hit and concrete, all of the predictions. so somehow israel's in terrible trouble and that the, the axis of resistance is going to crush israel. now it's going to the other way. so what does that mean with the, with the incoming very scientist administration of the trunk? is that the, this is the most, but unity that they've been looking for. this is the american uh, design is lobby. and because israel to reorganize the middle east web, i use ro once and for all, this is the 1st time and it says you won, some pro can dispense with both of its enemies. and really serious sir. it was a very big deal for israel know that it was it, you know, the long standing ally sort of leave of a so the unit was always the,

the one on the questions, the ally of a so read unit and then, oh russia, that's gong and uh and so now you know, the, the, it's in the around that's in the cross hairs. and what are they going to do, really without any question at all. drunk is going to launch. this is a maximum pressure campaign. 2 point. oh. and you will find all kinds of separate this move once the emerging, any around, you know, below, gives us areas um, arabs, tags, codes and all of which will cause be sponsored by the united states and then into around the world. we'll find most of the, some liberal movements emerging, you know, women will be demonstrating, taking off that he jobs and the michael, the guy that says democracy is friday. and then of course, a given list of the chaos that's, let's go to emerge and syria, isis, isis is everywhere. you know, somehow, you know, that we, you know,

we have to deal with isis. and the americans are going to say it as a realized as sudden like suddenly, suddenly they came back suddenly and he came back. we have to deal with it. and that's with the moment when they're going to stop bombing iran directly as a, just as the bones syria, the record saying we're going to deal with isis, or some region change. have also been holding regime change, which is bombing isis. so why don't you allow that? you know, you've just got to stop bombing iraq. then of course you just continue escal. yeah, i, i'm trying to get, i'm really confused. the difference between isis and l. chi though. okay, maybe maybe a topic for another program mark, go ahead. jump in. yeah, i'm the current de facto ruler of syria in damascus. i'll gilani. he was the leader of isis in syria. right. the deputy advice is the leader in syria. and he then became the leader of joe bought all moves throughout, re branded as i up to here, i'll show him. so what is the distinction?

i, i, you know, i don't think there is one as well. so i is, this is most definitely back because they just over through, you know, whether you want to call it ices are all kind of, but the self is the, you know, they just over through the, the government in, in, in syria. so that is, you know, not something that is, it will have rubber cushions it will have a blow back. and i think that if the us in israel go about another 2 point, oh george w bush attempts to re make the middle east that inevitably it will fail, they will topple some enemies in evident and eminently they will create new enemies, a new geo political problems that they will saddled themselves like just as they did with the explosive influence of the rod in the region after the

overthrow of saddam hussein, uh, unintended consequences. yeah. uh, this time it will be different. they always tell us that, okay, this time it will be different. george were rapidly running out of time. but you know, china is always on the menu here. how is that going to play out in 2025. we've already heard about the tariffs, the trump administration is going to pursue um, what is it the uh, navy general said 20272028. the conflict with china? well, it's 2025. go ahead. i think that's a, again, a china will be definitely a preoccupation of the trumpet ministration via the kind of an interesting because it's obviously going to be in economic conflict. i mean, i don't think it's going to be about taiwan trooper show no particular interest in the whole taiwan issue. any effect on like buying him. he refused to make any commitment to coming to taiwan. was assistance in the event of an invasion. so i think it's going to be, and he's going to wage a serious economic world against china,

and particularly he's going to wage a war against china throughout the world. you know, he's going to track down the countries that are doing deals with china. you know, some of this is going to stop black mainland extorting countries that are assigned onto china, including, including friends and allies. exactly. you know, use you sign on through this with, with china. you know, you're going to have, you know, the china is going to build a portfolio right away for you. you got a field, the ross of the united states. i think that's always good to of weight wage. this war against the china market. last pontificating words without giving a prediction. go ahead. yeah, i don't. i don't think we should completely write off military conflict with china as, as the tariff or will escalate the economic war. tensions will grow on the ground and is trump has brought people in. notice the deputy secretary of state l bridge.

colby is one of the most blaming war mongering china hawks imaginable. and trump may not care about the taiwan straits, but the taiwan straits care about you know, him. right. they, they, they, they care about, you know, the united states and the south china sea might be an even bigger flash point. then the taiwan straits. although intrinsically they are linked together. so, i mean, again, there's only 3 types of, of us, of foreign policy and political lead. they all want war with russia, china, e, ron, they just prioritize which of those 3 wars they want more. well, i mean it in 2025, which one is which one is on the top of the totem pole? i would have to say e, ron, but china comes close behind and russia hasn't gone away. george, hep, what, what's your, what's your ranking? i think i think it's the russia of any around in china. ok. we still got 30 seconds . go ahead. george. well,

i think it's still because russian work is the ongoing one and, and therefore, because i think this is going to be the subject of, at least for the 1st 6 months, maybe even the year of the trump administration. i've tried to deal with this uh, ukraine issue that's i think it's going to be very dangerous because i think it's, it's probably will fail. and if these initiative fails, then i think trunk will escalate and trump like to take risks. you know, that he sees himself as a risk. they and, and that's when it gets good. good, good for. okay. okay. i hope everybody had a good new year because according to my esteem, guess here is going to be a be a pretty gloomy and dreary 2025. anyway, i want to thank my guest in budapest and here in moscow. and of course, i want to thank our viewers for watching us here at our to see you next time. remember the,

the, [000:00:00;00] the us near do any kind of leads to the, in the articles and you might, it's a, so the other one you mean by, you mean, you know, probably my landline united. so that's literally ridiculous. this is kind of shows you this list inclusive, deacon was simple to as get the but i would stick with the same and use the link

dubiousness stores at the store to, to, to even go a deep to a few minutes 0. it's a good key. another phone yet because of that, the, it is breaking news and a mass casualties in new orleans. 10 people that are killed in thousands wounded as a pickup truck flowers through pots crowds on the street. and the firefight breaks out between the police and the driver. brushing the gas transit to europe through ukraine is no more. t upset was the deal leaving nations lights that off to you. i'm old of, of hon. the new you a kicks off in the dead of winter and 9 the countries joining the rings. old briggs partners as brazil vows to make their integration