ration of the growing good. one of our priority tasks during the presidency is to make bricks, partners feel part of the association. it is important to ensure their involvement . they will participate in the foreign ministers meetings, as well as in the 2025 summit. oh, never mind calling boy associates spoke with a pair of guess from these 2 bricks. paul, in the countries they say that the blow has much to offer economically as a traditional strong west and markets are struggling. these dates, the french can benefit and was a lot, i mean like it's and then once you find them, fed investments breaks can over individual possible voice innovation. always always want that to, you know, change the global governance so far. and the 2nd half, you know, asked us to go back to them being crazy, my big, that's

a lot of things that was going on. mostly economic, diversification and resilience. secondly, assess the new markets and technology is certainly opportunities for creative financial things that really easily need in the global cutting, global joy, economic geo political situation, and focus on mutual development. one of the rules of the brakes family is no bricks . member can sanction another briggs men. but meantime we've got the president elect, donald trump, who is about to re assume his position and the overall face. he's come out saying is particularly towards briggs. if you guys heard the american dollar while trying to diversify, i'm going to stop a 100 percent terrace on you guys as when uh, how do you read into that in the west? one of these issues going now. right now, be like going to be z o u k o canada they have so many problems by right now. so it's actually on for myself, with the joining the join, the new members is going to be like 40 percent of the economy. so it's supposed to

be very anything, but the sanction this very big, huge bulk. and they said pollution melisha is the trading nation. and they've been, seems to be independent of you have continued to take that everyone's body, but it must be done in the fastest possible way i've seen for a long, long time. the us dollar starts at the, as a global hegemony. global financial hedge of many to many countries. and therefore it is time for a bricks, bricks, mission and the rest of the was. but thinking about the most people like phenomena, existence should either let us come up with an alternate faith credentials for stubs that governs with complete feet. uh, throw out the uh, 3 the, the one. all that wraps up this and he is uh up next to impossible and will be back at the top of the out the

the hello and welcome across the top were all things are considered and peter lavelle, it would be nice to see in the new year with some optimism, unfortunately, this is not the case. the accumulation and deepening of many problems from last year are still very much with us. so fucking love brace for impact. the cross talking 2025 on joined by my guess george, send me while we in budapest, he's a pod cast where the guy go, which be found on youtube and locals. and here in moscow we crossed to marks or boulder. he's an international relations and security analyst, right? building cross lock roles in effect,

that means you can jump any time you want. i always appreciate it, mark, i'm going to go to you 1st and i'm going to kind of give to vent a little bit here. during 2024. a lot of people we know in the pod cast world in the alternative media world in the world. we're really kind of obsessed with predictions. and well, there's a lot of a gotten a lot of faces the go around here. and so i would really like to avoid in this program to work on predictions because i think it's a useless endeavor. okay? because most people end up being wrong and they don't always admit to it unfortunately. so having said that, i would like to look at developing trends. ok, now we've just talked about what happened in 2024. given that conversation, what happened in 2024? what kind of developing trends from the last year do we feel of?

do we see going into this new year mark as well? i, i think that you know, the 1st the elephant row in the room is the conflict in, in ukraine. i, i do not believe that the conflict and ukraine will, will end in the next year. i think the trend of the acceleration and the escalation of the conflict will continue despite you know, uh, you know, but the new us administration of donald trump coming into office in the united states simply because i do not believe that there is. any beal that the u. s. president, whoever that us present it is, can offer russia that russian will accept. and, and russia's terms are unacceptable to any us presidents, an attempt by the donald trump administration to, you know, play a role that, oh, he's going to cut a deal between russia and ukraine. as if he some kind of neutral outside arbiter is

just patently false. this is ultimately a conflict between russia and the united states. uh, on the united states. it is a proxy war, but it is a conflict to the us is losing, and trump owns that conflict. as soon as he comes into office and whatever, he may think of the average him and zalinski and in person and whatever, you know, political domestic gripes he has against them justified. he does not want to be known as the president to hand the ukraine over to vladimir pro. no us president wants that on that record. so i predict that the war will continue, it will excel accelerate. it will escalate. and when porton talks to donald trump or his, you know, envoys or whatever and says yes, you know, oh thank you very much, but yet, yeah, it means net. and then everyone will whisper in trump's years. you need to show

strengths to have peace. you, you need to escalate in order to de escalate and trump himself has already promised to flood ukraine with weapons. and what weapons i have no idea because even he's admitted to the us military, industrial complex doesn't have them. but if you refuse, is his grand deal. so i think that the, the war will get nasty or will getting more desperate. we'll continue to see more of bombings of civilian buildings, assassinations, the space of um, a cambridge team intelligence, arson attacks that are occurring throughout russia. at the moment. we'll see more and more of these, you know, dirty tricks. i like to call them, you know, u. s. military might call them unconventional warfare because out of desperation and panic, they can't win on the battlefield. that's what they will turn to increasingly in

charge here. and i've talked about this a great deal and it's not between i like marks approach to all of us. i think he's largely right. it's, it's, it's not a conflict between ukraine and russia. it's a proxy war. it's a nato proxy war against russia using ukraine here. and if there's got it going to be any kind of coming to terms, it's ne, tow bid is gonna be coming to to or not, you, ukraine, ukraine is a footnote, it's a, it's a side bar to all of this here. and that's why i've been very frustrated with the commentary. well, the guy who cut i've called last leg is, um, i think mark is right. i don't know about the time frame. nobody really does. but um, it is as long as the united states has not losing troops and uh, they can keep printing money. um, well, you know, the ukrainians are gonna suffer russians will suffer, the europeans will suffer. well, what's that to an american administration, george? no, i think i agree with that visa, i think that i'm so the united states for late. so this has been, is kind of

a bit more than not losing any lives. it's the ukrainians, and the russians been slobs, losing lives by the tens and hundreds of thousands. so why not to keep it doing? the one carrier that i would introduce is that trump has clearly stated that he's going to end this war. that means he is going to launch a major diplomatic offensive to try to bring this to an end. um, initially i believe. so i think roughly come up say, no, i think russia would have to play long take this seriously. and then really with the question is, if there is some guide on the on off, i would just say look, all right, we freeze the line of calls the line of conflicts here at this wind. i will book

the whole issue of the you brain in nato. on the back burner would be would that be will be acceptable now i think, you know, obviously it's a very bad deal for a terrible deal because russia then gets nothing out of it. however, i have been times in the past in the quite recent bust reaction and seemed willing to accept bad deals. and, and that's, i think is something that a clinic is matter of concern. i mean, we saw at the minutes, minutes was a while and 2 very bad ideas where roger, he rushed to know what i need to sign those deals, but went on to 8. he is your continually complaining. why don't you adhering to mens when he was obvious to anyone the because the west wasn't going to which he hasn't been so close to with was just using minutes in order to strengthen your brain for and eventually offensive. that was clearly on the cards and i think that's why a russell launch leap was that was special as the s m o in uh,

february 2022. and then of course again rush, it was ready to sign a december bill, which again was a bad deal for russian, but russia was, was ready to sign it and it has repeatedly proclaimed lou. yeah, we were ready to sign. we get lost signatures. are on the paper, so i don't think that's going to be in the like a in the and then i think when once that the trump initiative kind of comes to a dead end, then i think really the trump administration will escalate and i think the escalade kind of rough. um but i am, i am concerned i can't rule out fully. the restroom will sign on for something like okay, march synthesized. everything we've already heard here because we have got 3 different kind of approaches to a go ahead. yeah. don't forget the austin, not a framework for syria, which was another bad deal for russia. yeah, that's blew back on them. catastrophically with our to well, i'm sorry to interrupt mark because it's we, you and i had

a different conversation, a different venue about this. how is the failure of us of the going to influence russian thinking in 2025 go ahead. 7 well, 1st of all, i think that um, of russia is certainly has reduced influence and power projection capability in the middle east. i do not believe that russia will maintain military bases in the syria, even if or no one wants them there. that's not, that's not going to happen. russia doesn't want to be under the leverage of, of our to one and i'll call you to, to maintain their bases. they're apparently, they're already trying to shift resources from those bases to libya. however, that's another risky situation. i think if they do that, roscoe will almost certainly get burned again. and ultimately they will decide that the africa and the middle east are outside of rushes, geo political horizons,

and they will do what many russian critics of of who have said over the last decade is that russia should focus on ukraine. they should double down on ukraine and they should accept no compromises. no bad means. but again, that is a refrain that you hear in russian politics, right? no, no more. is them bulls? no more austin all frameworks. everything has to be settled from a position of strands on the battle field that there is no wiggle room there is no coming back from. and if it does agree to another bad deal that will be the end of food politically and russia. i that is something that almost seems on the general right after the last 2 decades, but i assure you, it is imaginable, especially among the military generals, the political elite in the country. right. and an ordinary russians, right. the russians that have sacrificed so much of the opprobrium. uh and uh,

you know, russia, teacher and the collective punishment of the west, the effects on the economy, the death, some tens of thousands of russian soldiers in ukraine. i don't think that the russian people will accept anything less than victory that has been defined by the russian president and the kremlin again and again unwaveringly. since the beginning of the conflict and has not wavered, has only strengthened since george before we go to the break here. get my mark is that a lot there? is the american the incoming administration? did they realize would, would something like wouldn't mark had to say or, um, yeah, i think so. i mean, i, and then i think that if they get something like that, if they can get russia to agree to some view that they've been hinting at. and it

leads to the downfall of boot, and i agree with marketing that the, the pressure science onto that it will eat on the maps not immediately, but it will lead to the end of the who to the americans who think, hey, this is a good deal for us, we have done rather well out of it, which is why again, uh, the rush breakfast would stay very, very fall from any kind of a deal. sure. so, you know, achieving the goals and i think ultimately the goal has to be regime change in care because you know, any do, well i, you know, you will, what will freeze the line of house and what are you still got a problem? this one sit me through on your world is this is a conversation i had with mark many, many moons ago, and he said that they should have been redeemed change of the resumed change back in 2014 gentlemen. i'm going to jump in here. we're going to go into a go to a short break, and after that short break, we'll continue our discussion on the new year 2025. stay with our team, the

the, the welcome act, across software. all things are considered. i'm peter lavelle to remind you we're

discussing the new year 2025. the . okay, let's go back to mark mark at the end of november, beginning of december of last year. we saw a, an event that no one in that i know of predicted. it was a complete collapse of the state and sovereignty of syria. is this the order of on the menu for the middle east for 20? 25. is this the some the beginning of something a developing trend? because there is so many moving pieces we have um has the law that is still vulnerable the i can't remember the last time 11 on had a real government. um uh if the is re lease with american backing and its the west bank. um, we're gonna have a huge refugee problem. going into jordan. jordan knows already packed full of

people that are refugees. we have no idea what the series would be. what used to be called syria is going to look like. and then we have a rack. is it implies applies even around. so i've kind of said a lot of pieces on the board move whichever one you want. go ahead mark. yeah. so the middle east was in flame. uh, already uh, you know, before this, the events in syria and the year, you know, uh what came to a close and, and the uh, conflagration of the middle east will only continue into the next year. i think that syria is most likely to become both a failed and properly a fractured state. um i, i, it's, uh, syria will now be the humpty dumpty who fell off the wall. busy and all the king's horses are all the hedge, a month's horses and all the hedge. mine's man will not be able to put syria back together again. i think it is very likely that the dis,

stabilisation from syria will extend at least into lab and on and a rack potentially further abroad. i think we will see increased direct, an open conflict between israel and the us on one side and iran on the other. you know, look for. busy for air strikes on on you runs nuclear facilities, which iraq is real, is now salivating about. now that they're so happy that all of syria's air defense has disappeared overnight. and then yahoo has been openly talking about it. i think we will also see the palestinian problem come to an end with the complete ethnic cleansing over the next 4 years of the palestinian people from the territory of, of greater israel. that way. i mean, we, we, we just saw headlines in the western media over the last week talking about, well, you know, is realistic and part of syria. but, you know, it's rise,

borders of fluctuated throughout history. right. i mean, the way they're there that have moved to have have moved so israel's borders are on the move and the palestinians will become what the jewish people once were a nomadic people without a whole them, it will not just be gods. i think it will be brought into the west bank as well. and, and for finale, we're going to see economic turmoil throughout the world as trump begins is much uh, talked about terra for a renewal. busy of the tariff war, not only on american adversaries, but on america now i as well so, so buckle off every where for economic term on george, i mean a market is set up a lot there. i mean, it's really interesting when we look at what's going on in what's called the greater middle east west asia and institute here moniker. but i mean there's,

there's some very interesting complex being played out and i'm not looking at states, okay. states in this region are very, very weak for the most part, um, you can even make that case about israel and its internal politics, but none of the less here. you have a new ottoman ism, you have american head gemini, and is really design is i'm, i mean, that's a very interesting parlay in a small geographical space. go ahead, george. a good. it is indeed, but what has turned out in 20232024. and what israel has demonstrated, hey, we can do all of this and we can get away with it. and basically just israel's adverse or is that has taking the hit and concrete all of the predictions. so somehow israel's in terrible trouble and that the, the axis of resistance is going to crush israel. now it's gone the other way. so what does that mean with the, with the incoming very sign is the administration of the trunk. that is that this

was the opportunity that they've been looking for versus the american uh design is lobby. and that goes israel to reorganize the middle of lease web. i use ro once and for all, this is the 1st time and it says you won some parole can dispense with a bowl of its enemies. and clearly serious sir, it was a very big deal for israel. know that it was it, you know, the long standing ally, so simply the soviet union was always the, the one on the question, the ally of a so read unit. and then, oh, russia, that's gone. and, and so now, you know, the, the, it's in iran that's in the cross hairs and what are they going to do, really without any question. that's all drunk is going to launch. this is a maximum pressure campaign. 2 point. oh. and you will find all kinds of separate this move once the emerging any around, you know, blue gives us areas um arabs,

tubs codes, and all of which will cause be sponsored by the united states. and then into around the world will find most of the, some liberal movements emerging. you know, women will be demonstrating, taking off that he jobs and the michael, the guy says democracy is friday. and then of course, a given list of the chaos that's, let's go to emerge and syria, isis, isis is everywhere. you know, somehow, you know, then we, you know, we have to deal with isis. and the americans are going to say it as a realized as sudden like suddenly, suddenly they came back suddenly and he came back. we have to deal with it. and that's with the moment when they give us the bombing iran directly as a, just as a bonus, syria directly saying we're going to deal with isis or salt region change. have also been removing regime change, which is bombing isis. so why don't you allow that? you know, you've just got to stop bombing iraq. then of course you just continue escal. yeah

i, i'm trying to get, i'm really confused. the difference between isis and l. chi though. okay. maybe. maybe a topic for another program mark, go ahead. jump in. yeah. um, the current de facto ruler of syria in damascus. i'll gilani. he was the leader of isis in syria. right. the deputy advice is the leader in syria. and he then became the leader of jo. bought all moves throughout, re branded as i up to here all shot. so what is the distinction? i, i, you know, i don't think there is one as well. so isis is most definitely back because they just over through, you know, whether you want to call it ices are all kind of, but the self is the, you know, they just over through the, the government in, in, in syria. so that is, you know, not something that is, it will have rubber cushions it will have uh, blow back. and i think that if the us in israel go about another

2 point o george w bush attempts to re make the middle east that inevitably it will fail, they will topple some enemies, an editor, and eminently they will create new enemies and new geo political problems. that they. busy out of themselves like just as they did with the explosive influence of the rod in the region after the overthrow of saddam hussein, uh, unintended consequences. yeah. uh, this time it will be different. they always tell us that, okay, this time it will be different. george were rapidly running out of time, but you know, china is always on the menu here. how is that going to play out in 2025. we've already heard about the tariffs, the trump administration is going to pursue um, what is it the uh, a navy general said 20272028. the conflict with china?

well, it's 2025. go ahead. i think that's a, again, a china will be definitely a preoccupation of the trump administration via the kind of an interesting because it's obviously going to be in economic conflict. i mean, i don't think it's going to be about taiwan trauma show. no particular interest in the whole taiwan issue and in fact, unlike by whom he refused to make any commitment to coming, to tie one's assistance in the event of an invasion of. so i think it's going to be, and he's going to wage a serious a economic war against china. and particularly he's going to wage a war against china throughout the world. you know, he's going to track down the countries that are doing deals with china. you know, some of this is going to stop black mainland, exploding countries that are assigned onto china, including for including friends and allies. exactly. you know, use you sign on through this with, with china. you know, you've been a, you know, the china is going to build a portfolio railway for you. you've got

a field across the united states and i think that's always good to wage this war against the china market. the last pontificating words without giving a prediction. go ahead. yeah, i don't, i don't think we should completely write off military conflict with china as, as the tariff war will escalate, the economic war. tensions will grow on the ground and its trump has brought people in. notice the deputy secretary of state l bridge. colby is one of the most blaming war mongering china hawks imaginable. and trump may not care about the taiwan straits, but the taiwan straits care about, you know, him. right. they, they, they, they care about, you know, the united states and the south china sea might be an even bigger flash point. then the taiwan straits. although intrinsically they are linked together. so, i mean,

again, there's only 3 types of, of us, of foreign policy and political lead. they all want war with russia, china, e, ron, they just prioritize which of those 3 wars they want more. well, i mean it in 2025, which one is which one is on the top of the totem pole? i would have to say e, ron, but china comes close behind and russia hasn't gone away. george, hep, what, what's your, what's your ranking? i think i think it's the russia of any around in china. ok. we still got 30 seconds . go ahead. george. as well. i think it so because russian work is the ongoing one and, and therefore because i think this is going to be the subject of, at least for the 1st 6 months, maybe even the year of the trump administration. i've tried to deal with this uh, ukraine issue that's i think it's going to be very dangerous because i think it's, it's probably will fail. and if these initiative fails, then i think trunk will escalate and try to take risks. you know,

that he sees himself as a risk beta and, and that's when it gets good. good, good for. okay. okay. i hope everybody had a good new year because according to my esteem guest here is going to be a be a pretty gloomy and dreary 2025. anyway, i want to thank my guest in budapest and here in moscow. and of course, i want to thank our viewers for watching us here at our to see you next time. remember the, the other many places in the world's wages, the, on the divide between the 2 oceans. and the, you might not think kids. one of them is hey, english is northern, i found your vision in the channels that us and national parks. and today's, we know the stuff was from taking

a deep side into some beach because of the great can use my casualties. a new orleans as a truck route, i think the crowd a good new year's celebration at least 10 people a day. then thousands of of the energy prices in europe search into molding 50 was the last hour for the 1st 5 minutes of the year as he claimed console gaps. divide from the virus face is blowing rejection in africa following center of lead. this item rico starts the new year, but i think by doing a shift being tied on before i.