last year are still very much with us. so fucking love brace for impact. the cross talking 2025 on joined by my guess george samuel, we in budapest, he's a pod cast where the guy go, which be found on youtube and locals. and here in moscow we crossed to mark football, the he's an international relations and security analyst, right? building cross lock roles. and in fact, that means it can jump any time you want. and i always appreciate it, mark, i'm going to go to you 1st and i'm going to kind of give vent a little bit to year during 2020 for a lot of people we know in the pod cast world in the alternative media world in the world we're really kind of obsessed with predictions. and well, there's a lot of a gotten a lot of faces the go around here. and so i would really like to avoid in this

program to work on predictions because i think it's a useless endeavor. okay? because most people end up being wrong and they don't always admit to it unfortunately. so having said that, i would like to look at developing trends. ok, now we've just talked about what happened in 2024. given that conversation, what happened in 2024? what kind of developing trends from the last year do we feel? do we see going into this new year mark as well? i, i think that you know, the 1st the elephant row in the room is the conflict in, in ukraine. i, i do not believe that the conflict and ukraine will, will end in the next year. i think the trend of the acceleration and the escalation of the conflict will continue despite you know, uh, you know, the, the new us administration of donald trump coming into office in the united states

simply because i do not believe that there is. any beal that the u. s. president, whoever that us present it is going to offer russia that russian will accept and, and russia's terms are unacceptable to any us presidents, an attempt by the donald trump administration to, uh, you know, play a role that, oh, he's gonna cut a deal between russia and ukraine as if he some kind of neutral outside arbiter is just patently false. this is ultimately a conflict between russia and the united states and the united states. it is a proxy war, but it is a conflict to the us is losing, and trump owns that conflict. as soon as he comes into office and whatever, he may think of the average him and zalinski and in person in whatever, you know, political domestic gripes he has against them justified. he does not want to be

known as the president to hand the ukraine over to vladimir pro. no us president wants that on that record. so i predict that the war will continue, it will excel accelerate. it will escalate. and when porton talks to donald trump or his, you know, envoys or whatever and says yes, you know, oh thank you very much, but yet, yeah, it means net. and then everyone will whisper in trump's years. you need to show strengths to have peace. you, you need to escalate in order to de escalate and trump himself has already promised to flood ukraine with weapons. what weapons i have no idea because even he's admitted to the us military, industrial complex doesn't have them. but if you refuse, is his grand deal. so i think that the, the war will get nasty or will getting more desperate will continue to see more the

bombings of civilian buildings, assassinations, the space of um, a cambridge team intelligence, arson attacks that are occurring throughout russia. at the moment, we'll see more and more of these, you know, dirty tricks. i like to call them, you know, u. s. military might call them unconventional warfare because out of desperation and panic, they can't win on the battlefield. that's what they will turn to increasingly in charge here. and i've talked about this a great deal and it's not between i like marks approach to all of us. i think he's largely right. it's, it's, it's not a conflict between ukraine and russia. it's a proxy war, it's a nato proxy war against russia using ukraine here. and if there's got it going to be any kind of coming to terms, it's ne, tow bid is gonna be coming to to are not you. ukraine, ukraine is a footnote, it's a, it's a side bar to all of this here. and that's why i've been very frustrated with the

commentary. but the guy who cut i've called last leg is, um, i think mark is right. i don't know about the time frame, nobody really does. but um, it is as long as the united states has not losing troops and uh, they can keep printing money. um, well, you know, the ukrainians are gonna suffer russians will suffer, the europeans will suffer. well, what's that to an american administration, george? you know, i think i agree with that. these are, i think that so the united states, but late. so this has been kind of a good war, the losing any lives. it's that you brands on the russians been slobs losing lives by the tens and hundreds of thousands. so why not to keep it going? the one kelly at that i would introduce is that trump has clearly stated that he's going to end this war. that means he is going to launch

a major diplomatic offensive to try to bring this to an end. um, initially at least i think rough, it kind of say no, i think russia would have to play long take this seriously. and then a really, really question is, if there is some kind of a deep off, i would just say look, all right, we freeze the line of calls the line of conflicts here at this point. um, with the whole issue of uh, your brain and nato on the back burner. um would be would that still be acceptable now i think, you know, obviously it's a very bad deal for a terrible deal because russel then gets nothing out of it. however, um they have been times in the past in the quite recent buzz reaction and seemed willing to accept bad deals. and, and that's, i think is something that a clinic is matter of concern. i mean, we saw at the min minutes was a while and 2 very bad ideas, or i'm sure the rush or not, i mean sign those deals,

but went on for 8 years. your continually complaining, why don't you adhering to minutes? when it was obvious to anyone that goes to west wasn't going to a chance. i'm in school so which was just using minutes in order to strengthen your brain for and eventually offensive. that was clearly on the cards and i think that's why a so largely this that was special as the s m o in uh, february 2022. and then of course again, richard was ready to sign in december. oh, which again was a bad deal for russian, but russian was, was ready to sign it and put it has repeatedly proclaimed blue. here we were ready to sign. we get our signatures are on the paper. so i don't think that's going to be in the like the in the and then i think when, once that the trump initiative kind of comes to a dead end, then i think who a, the trump administration will escalate and i think escalate. okay,

it's russia. i'm, i'm, i am concerned i can't rule out fully. the restroom will sign up with something like okay, marks synthesized everything we've already heard here because we have a 3 different kind of approaches. do a go ahead. yeah. and don't forget the austin on a framework for syria, which was another bad deal for russia. yep. that said, blew back on them. catastrophically with our to well, i'm sorry to interrupt mark because it, yeah it's we, you and i had a different conversation, a different venue about this. how is the failure of us, of the going to influence russian thinking in 2025. go ahead. 7 well, 1st of all, i think that um, of russia is certainly has reduced influence and power projection capability in the middle east. i do not believe that russia will maintain military bases in the syria, even if or no one wants them there. that's not, that's not going to happen. russia doesn't want to be under the leverage of,

of our to one and i'll call you to, to maintain their bases there. apparently they're already trying to shift resources from those bases to libya. however, that's another risky situation i, i think if they do that, roscoe will almost certainly get burned again. and ultimately they will decide that the africa and the middle east are outside of rushes, geo political horizons, and they will do what many russian critics of of who have said over the last decade is that russia should focus on ukraine. they should double down on ukraine and they should accept no compromises. no bad means. but again, that is a refrain that you hear in russian politics, right? no, no more. is them bulls? no more austin all frameworks. everything has to be settled from a position of strands on the battle field that there is no wiggle room there is no

coming back from. and if it does agree to another bad deal that will be the end of putting politically in russia. i. that is something that almost seems on the general right after the last 2 decades, but i assure you it is imaginable, especially among the military generals, the political elite in the country. right. and an ordinary russians, right. the russians that have sacrificed so much of the opprobrium and uh, you know, russia, teacher and the collective punishment of the west, the effects on the economy, the death, some tens of thousands of russian soldiers in ukraine. i don't think that the russian people will accept anything less than victory that has been defined by the russian president and the kremlin again and again unwaveringly.

since the beginning of the conflict and has not wavered, has only strengthened since george before we go to the break here. get my mark is that a lot there? is the american the incoming administration? did they realize would would something like wouldn't mark had to say to um, yeah, i think so. i mean, i and then i think that if they get something like that, if they can get a roster to agree to some view that they've been hinting at and it leads to the downhill boot. and i agree with marketing that the, the pressure science onto that it will eat on the maps not immediately, but it will lead to the end of the who to the americans who think, hey, this is a good deal for us. we have done rather well out of it, which is why again, the rush breakfast would stay very, very far from any kind of a deal. sure. so, you know, achieving that goal of them. i think ultimately the goal has to be regime change in to you because you know any do, well i, you know, you will,

we will freeze the line of house way and what have you still got a problem? the unit size fit me to on your boat is this is a conversation i had with mark many, many moons ago, and he said that they should have been redeem change of the res. seem change back in 2014 gentlemen. i'm going to jump in here. we're going to go into a go to a short break, and after that short break, we'll continue our discussion on the new year 2025. stay with our team, the, to take a fresh look around this life kaleidoscopic isn't just a shepherd, reality distortion by power type vision with no real opinions.

fixtures designed to simplify will confuse who really wants a better wills, and is it just as a chosen few fractured images presented as 1st? can you see through their illusion going underground can the items that i have a huge family bullshit step instruction and yeah, the vehicle we have with me this just seems yet a dish. oh, so you might have to leave 1st, the lady shut up the slow noise or the outside for the margin

of the forest. every air of weight in the field was over to you, but you could give her or give her a last look to see what could upgrades to me. yet at the more towards dish, quite simple. i mean your 3, bob, assume the other. sure. the river, the sky. it's all mine. and dear to me, this is my homeland. i love everyone in the world, which is the just the way the like the wolf came here or that you this service here. right. of course you need a chair that i see you. awesome, mr. shift at the, on our side of the phone on the

the welcome, ect. across software, all things are considered. i'm peter lavelle to mind you were discussing the new year 2025. the ok, let's go back to mark my market. the end of november, beginning of december of last year, we saw a, an event that no one in that i know of predicted. it was the complete collapse of the state and sovereignty of syria. is this the order of on the menu for the middle east for 20? 25. is this the some the beginning of something a developing trend? because there is so many moving pieces we have a has the law that is still vulnerable. the i can't remember the last time 11 on had a real government a if the is re lease with american backing and x,

the west bank. um uh we're gonna have a huge refugee problem going into jordan. jordan, who is already packed full of people that are refugees. we have no idea what the series, what the, what used to be called syria is going to look like. and then we have a rack is input, apply even around. so i've kind of said a lot of pieces on the board move whichever one you want. go ahead mark. yeah. so the middle east was in flame. uh, already you know, before this, the events in syria and the year you know, what came to a close and, and the conflagration of the middle east will only continue into the next year. i think that syria is most likely to become both a failed and properly a fractured state. i it's a, syria will now be the humpty dumpty who fell. busy off the wall and all the king's horses are all the hedge. a month's horses in all the hedge minds man will not be

able to put syria back together again. i think it is very likely that the dis, stabilisation from syria will extend at least into lab and on and a rack potentially further abroad. i think we will see increased direct open conflict between israel and the us on one side and iran on the other. you know, look for air strikes on, on a uh, e, ron's nuclear facilities which iraq is real, is now salivating about now that they're so happy that all of syria's air defense has disappeared overnight and then yahoo has been openly talking about it. i think we will also see the palestinian problem come to an end with the complete ethnic cleansing over the next 4 years of the palestinian people from the territory of, of greater israel that we, i mean we, we,

we just saw headlines in the western media over the last week talking about, well, you know, uh israel is taking part of syria out, but you know, is right, is borders of fluctuated throughout history, right. i mean, the way they're there that have moved to have, have moved. so israel borders are on the move and the palestinians will become what the jewish people once we're a no matic people without a home, it will not just be gods. i think it will be brought into the west bank as well. and. and for finale, we're going to see economic turmoil throughout the world as trump begins is much uh, talked about terra for a renewal of the tariff war, not only on american adversaries, but on american outlines as well. so, so buckle up everywhere for economics term on george. i mean a market is set up a lot there. i mean it's really interesting when we look at what's going non in

what's called the greater middle east west asia and institute here moniker. but i mean there's, there's some very interesting conflicts being played out and i'm not looking at states, okay. states in this region are very, very weak for the most part. um, you can even make that case about israel and its internal politics. but nonetheless, here you have a new ottoman ism, you have american head gemini, and is really zionism. i mean, that's a very interesting parlay in a small geographical space. go ahead, george. the good. it is indeed, but what has turned out in 20232024. and what israel has demonstrated, hey, we can do all of this and we can get away with it. and basically just israel's adversaries that have taken the hit and confir age of all of the predictions. so somehow israel's in terrible trouble and that the,

the axis of resistance is going to crush israel. now it's going to the other way. so what does that mean with the, with the incoming very sign is the administration of the trunk. is that the, this is the opportunity that they've been looking for. this is the american uh, design is lobby and that goes israel to reorganize the middle east web. i use ro once and for all, this is the 1st time and it says you won, some pro can dispense with all of its enemies. and pretty serious, sir, it was a very big deal. uh for israel. know that it was it, you know, the long standing ally, so simply the soviet union was always the one on the questions, the ally of a so read unit. and then, oh, russia, that's gong. and, and so now, you know, the, the, it's in iran that's in the cross hairs. and what are they going to do, really without any question, little drunk is going to launch. this is

a maximum pressure campaign. 2 point oh. and you will find all kinds of separate this move and so the merging any around, you know, pollute, gives us areas um arabs, tubs codes, and all of which will cause be sponsored by the united states and then into around the world. we'll find most of the, some liberal movements emerging, you know, women will be demonstrating, taking off that he jobs. and the michael, the guy says democracy is thriving. and then of course, so given this of the chaos that's, let's go to emerge and syria, isis. isis is everywhere, you know, somehow, you know, that we, you know, we have to deal with isis. and the americans are going to say it as a realized as sudden, like suddenly, suddenly they came back suddenly and he came back. we have to deal with it and that's with the moment when they're going to stop bombing iran directly as a, just as the bones syria, the record saying we're going to deal with isis or some raging change. have also

been holding regime change, which is bombing isis. so why don't you allow that? you know, you've just got to stop bombing iraq. then of course you just continue escal. yeah, i, i'm trying to get, i'm really confused. the difference between isis and l. chi though, okay, maybe maybe a topic for another program mark, go ahead and jump in. yeah, i'm the current de facto ruler of syria in damascus. i'll gilani. he was the leader of isis in syria. right. the deputy advice is the leader in syria. and he then became the leader of joe bought all moves throughout, re branded as i you to hear all from so what is the distinction? i, i, you know, i don't think there is one as well. so i is, this is most definitely back because they just over through, you know, whether you want to call it ices are all kind of, but the south is the, you know, they just over through the, the government in, in, in syria. so that is,

you know, not something that is, it will have rubber cushions it will have a blow back. and i think that if the us in israel go about another 2 point, oh george w bush attempts to re make the middle east that inevitably it will fail, they will topple some enemies in evident and eminently. they will create new enemies and new geo political problems. that they will saddled themselves like just as they did with the explosive influence of the rod in the region after the overthrow of saddam hussein, unintended consequences. yeah. this time it will be different. they always tell us that, okay, this time it will be different. george were rapidly running out of time, but you know, china is always on the menu here. how is that going to play out in 2025. we've already heard about the tariffs that the trump administration is going to pursue.

um, what is it the uh, a navy general said 2027. 2028. the conflict with china? well, it's 2025. go ahead. well, i think that's a, again, china will be definitely a preoccupation of the trumpet ministration. that will be going to be interesting because it's obviously going to be in economic conflict. i mean, i don't think it's going to be about taiwan trooper show no particular interest in the whole taiwan issue. any effect on like buying him. he refused to make any commitment to coming to taiwan is assistance in the event of an invasion. so i think it's going to be, he's going to wage a serious a economic war against china. and particularly he's going to wage a war against china throughout the world. you know, he's going to track down the countries that are doing deals with china. you know, some of this is going to stop black mainland extorting countries that are assigned

onto china, including, including friends and allies. exactly. you know, just you sign on through this with, with china, you know, you've been a, you know, the china is going to build a portfolio or railway for you. you got a field, the ross of the united states. i think that's always good to wait wage. this war against china market, the last pontificating words without giving a prediction. go ahead. yeah, i don't. i don't think we should completely write off military conflict with china as, as the tariff or will escalate the economic war. tensions will grow on the ground and is trump has brought people in notice the deputy secretary of state l bridge. colby is one of the most blaming war mongering. china hawks imaginable. and trump may not care about the taiwan straits, but the taiwan straits care about, you know, him, right. they, they, they, they care about, you know, the united states and the south china sea might be an even bigger flash point. then

the taiwan straits. although intrinsically they are linked together. so, i mean, again, there's only 3 types of, of us, of foreign policy and political lead. they all want war with russia, china, e, ron, they just prioritize which of those 3 wars they want more. well, i mean, and in 2025, which one is which one is on the top of the totem pole? i would have to say e, ron, but china comes close behind and russia hasn't gone away. george, hep, what, what's your, what's your ranking? i think i think it's the russia of any around in china. ok. we still got 30 seconds . go ahead. george. well, i think it's still because russian work is the ongoing one. and, and therefore, because i think this is going to be the subject of, at least for the 1st 6 months, maybe even the year of the trump administration. i've tried to deal with this. uh ukraine issue that's i think it's going to be very dangerous because i think it's,

it's probably will fail. and if these initiative fails, then i think trump will escalate and try to take risks. you know, he sees himself as a risk beta and, and that's when it gets good. good, good for. okay. okay. i hope everybody had a good new year because according to my esteem, guess here is gonna be to be a pretty gloomy and dreary 2025. anyway, i want to thank my guest in budapest and here in moscow. and of course, i want to thank our viewers for watching us here at our to see you next time. remember, the, the

russian states never as one of the most sense community best to him. then i'll send, send the send, the 65 to 5 must be the one else calls question about this, even though we will then in the european union, the kremlin mission, the state on russia to day and split the r t spoke neck. even our video agency, roughly all the band on youtube, the fitness center. for what question did you say stephen twist, which is the in february 2022 ukraine, the game, the world's number one new story for ukraine,

new brand, new credit, a brand new crane question. truth invaded ukraine, new loan perspective, ukraine suffering from russian aggression. we seen the main stream media in the night in the numerous reciting, clean, developed scripts that essentially say exactly the same thing using the buzz words of this is a threat to our democracy. when you see 10 different channels, exactly that sentence, you know, that it's a central intelligence agency script. the role of p r firms in ukraine, throughout europe and into and i did states really can be overstated if it's quite different than it wasn't previous decades. where there used to be more of a cobra propaganda, government propaganda operations. now this is just celebrated as p r in helping you frames and helping get their message out. once the guy is who's pulling the strings and who is profiting

the the building the gun and below the showing the school in murray, opal. o'rando. what's the length of it off to the battles for the city? ukrainian soldiers turn the children's classrooms into machine gun nests and doing retreats. they mind the school library in the gym, although it could be used as the ukranian history textbooks. scans on the floor approve of how ukraine became a states.