as i've been evacuated and wind gusts, our reports has to be hurricane falls. all that outside of this thing is i do check out all to the top of that sound. great. so is that we'll be back in about 30 minutes about the, the, the,

[000:00:00;00] the, [000:00:00;00] the hello and welcome to cross software. all things are considered and peter level, it would be nice to see in the new year with some optimism. unfortunately, this is not the case. the accumulation and deepening of many problems from last year are still very much with us. so fucking love brace for impact,

the cross fucking 2025. i'm joined by my guess. george sent me while we in budapest. he's a pod counselor at the guy go, which be found on youtube and locals. and here in moscow we crossed to marks or boulder. he's an international relations and security analyst, red building cross lock roles, and the fact that means you can jump any time you want. and i always appreciate it, mark, i'm going to go to you 1st and i'm going to kind of give to vent a little bit here. during 2024. a lot of people we know in the pod cast world in the alternative media world in the world. we're really kind of obsessed with predictions. and well, there's a lot of a gotten a lot of faces the go around here. and so i would really like to avoid in this program to work on predictions because i think it's a useless endeavor. okay? because most people end up being wrong and they don't always admit to it

unfortunately. so having said that, i would like to look at developing trends. ok, now we've just talked about what happened in 2024. given that conversation. what happened in 2024? what kind of developing trends from the last year do we feel of? do we see going into this new year mark as well? i, i think that you know, the 1st the elephant row in the room is the conflict in ukraine. i, i do not believe that the conflict and ukraine will, will end in the next year. i think the trend of the acceleration and the escalation of the conflict will continue despite you know, as you know, but the new us administration of donald trump coming into office in the united states simply because i do not believe that there is any deal that the u. s. president,

whoever that us present it is going to offer russia that russian will accept and, and russia's terms are unacceptable to any us presidents, an attempt by the donald trump administration to, uh, you know, play a role like, oh, he's gonna cut a deal between russia and ukraine as if he some kind of neutral outside arbiter is just patently false. this is ultimately a conflict between russia and the united states and the united states. it is a proxy war, but it is a conflict to the us is losing, and trump owns that conflict. as soon as he comes into office and whatever, he may think of the average him and zalinski and in person in whatever, you know, political domestic gripes he has against them justified. he does not want to be known as the president to hand the ukraine over to vladimir pro. no us president

wants that on that record. so i predict that the war will continue, it will excel accelerate. it will escalate. and when porton talks to donald trump or his, you know, envoys or whatever and says yes, you know, oh thank you very much, but yet, yeah, it means net. and then everyone will whisper in trump's years. you need to show strengths to have peace. you, you need to escalate in order to de escalate and trump himself has already promised to flood ukraine with weapons. and what weapons i have no idea because even he's admitted to the us military, industrial complex doesn't have them. but if you refuse, is his grand deal. so i think that the, the war will get nasty or will getting more desperate. we'll continue to see more of bombings of civilian buildings, assassinations, the space of um, a cambridge team intelligence,

arson attacks that are occurring throughout russia. at the moment. we'll see more and more of these, you know, dirty tricks. i like to call them, you know, u. s. military might call them unconventional warfare because out of desperation and panic, they can't win on the battlefield. that's what they will turn to increasingly. it charge you and i've talked about this a great deal and it's not between i like marks approach to all of us. i think he's largely right. it's, it's, it's not a conflict between ukraine and russia. it's a proxy war. it's a nato proxy war against russia using ukraine here. and if there's got it going to be any kind of coming to terms, it's ne, tow bid is gonna be coming to to are not you, ukraine, ukraine is a footnote, it's a, it's a side bar to all of this here. and that's why i've been very frustrated with the commentary. but the guy who cut i've called last leg is, um, i think mark is right. i don't know about the timeframe. nobody really does. but um,

it is as long as the united states has not losing troops and uh, they can keep printing money. um, well, you know, the ukrainians are gonna suffer russians will suffer, the europeans will suffer. well, what's that to an american administration, george? you know, i think i agree with the visa, i think that so the united states, but late. so this has been kind of a good war, the losing any lives. it's that you brands on the russians been slobs losing lives by the tens and hundreds of thousands. so why not to keep it doing? the, the one carrier that i would introduce is that trump has clearly stated that he's going to end this war. that means he is going to launch a major diplomatic offensive to try to bring this to an end. um, initially at least i think roughly come up say, no,

i think russia would have to play long. take this seriously. and then it really will. the question is, if there is some guide or the on off, i would just say look, all right, we freeze the line of calls the line of conflicts here at this wines. um with the whole issue of uh, your brain and nato on the back burner. um would is that, would that still be acceptable now i think, you know, obviously it's a very bad deal for a terrible deal because russel then gets nothing out of it. however, um they have been times in the past in the quite recent buzz reaction and seemed willing to accept bad deals. and, and that's, i think is something that a clinic is matter of concern. i mean, we saw at the minutes, minutes was a while and 2 very bad ideas or i'm sure the rush or not, i mean sign those deals, but went on. so is your continually complaining?

why don't you adhering to means when it was obvious to anyone that goes to west wasn't going to attempt them in school. so which was just using minutes in order to strengthen your brain for an eventual um, offensive. that was clearly on the cards. and i think that's why a so largely this that was special as the s m o in uh, february 2022. and then of course again, roof. it was ready to sign in december. oh, which again was a bad deal for russian, but russian was, was ready to sign it and put it has repeatedly proclaimed lou. yeah, we were ready to sign. we get our signatures are on the paper. so i don't think that's going to be in the like a, in the and then i think when, once that the trump initiative kind of comes to a dead end, then i think who a, the trump administration will escalate and i think escalate. okay, it's russia. i'm i am, i am concerned i can't rule out fully. the rest of it will sign off with something like okay, march synthesized. everything we've already heard here because we have

a 3 different kind of approaches. do a go ahead. yeah. don't forget the austin on a framework for syria, which was another bad deal for russia. yeah, that said lou, back on them catastrophically with our to, well, i'm sorry to interrupt mark because it's we, you and i had a different conversation, a different venue about this. how is the failure of us, of the going to influence russian thinking in 2025? go ahead. um. well, 1st of all, i think that um, of russia is certainly has reduced influence and power projection capability in the middle east. i do not believe that russia will maintain military bases in the syria, even if or no one wants them there. that's not, that's not going to happen. russia doesn't want to be under the leverage of, of our to one. and i'll call you to, to maintain their bases. they're apparently,

they're already trying to shift resources from those bases to libya. however, that's another risky situation. i think if they do that, roscoe will almost certainly get burned again. and ultimately they will decide that the africa and the middle east are outside of rushes, geo political horizons, and they will do what many russian critics of of who have said over the last decade is that russia should focus on ukraine. they should double down on ukraine and they should accept no compromises. no bad means. but again, that is a refrain that you hear in russian politics, right? no, no more. is them bulls? no more austin all frameworks. everything has to be settled from a position of strands on the battle field that there is no wiggle room there is no coming back from. and if it does agree to another bad deal that will be the end of

putting politically in russia. i. that is something that almost seems on the general right after the last 2 decades, but i assure you it is imaginable, especially among the military generals, the political elite in the country. right. and an ordinary russians, right. the russians that have sacrificed so much of the opprobrium and uh, you know, russia, teacher and the collective punishment of the west, the effects on the economy, the death, some tens of thousands of russian soldiers in ukraine. i don't think that the russian people will accept anything less than victory that has been defined by the russian president and the kremlin again and again unwaveringly. since the beginning of the conflict and has not wavered, has only strengthened since george before we go to the break here. get my mark is

that a lot there? is the american the incoming administration? did they realize would, would something like wouldn't mark had to say to um, yeah, i think so. i mean, i, and then i think that if they get something like that, if they can get russia to agree to some view, but they've been hinting at any lead, still the down boot. and i agree with marketing that the, the for us of science onto that it will eat on the maps not immediately, but it will lead to the end of the who to the americans who think, hey, this is a good deal for us. we have done rather well out of it, which is why again, the rush breakfast would stay very, very far from any kind of a deal. sure. so, you know, achieving the goals and i think ultimately the goal has to be regime change in to you because you know, any do, well i, you know, you will, we will freeze the line of house and what have you still got a problem? the unit size fit me so on your board is this is a conversation i had with mark many, many moons ago,

and he said that they should have been rename, change of the receipt and change back in 2014 gentlemen. i'm going to jump in here . we're going to go into a go to a short break, and after that short break, we'll continue our discussion on the new year 2025. stay with our team. the of course the near wes. lots of stuff is a lot going out of the g at the fortunately version that suddenness portions here goes away with the result of the story and bushek 8 or studio to see more option that this be so for ship. oh,

for starter home. oh great. so gosh street and you want you to where it was a school in your welski territory. so this could save the natural logos of it. so form a ship portion or the provide me about a foot bar stool nearby shovel in gold and the website is close. i you was a category stores for us at ocean and continued to go out and dialed it, blowing out. probably not sure. the south, the strong, clear back. so those sort of introduce shuffle so comfortable at the blog post and just got a smith gasket, bluish boys coming out on the bus, which is still going to me. so i'm on the publishing covers. the going in go use the talk about some of what you get to talk about as there's dorski a whole bunch bundle of the circle. comfortable the some about on they're

not, i mean yeah, the desktop on the left of the shipment of stuff. some of the the welcome back across software. all things are considered. i'm peter lavelle to mind you were discussing the new year 2025. the okay, let's go back tomorrow to my market. the end of november, beginning of december of last year, we saw a, an event that no one in that i know of predicted. it was the complete collapse of the state. and sovereignty of syria. is this the or d'oeuvre on the menu for the middle east or 20? 25. is this the some the beginning of something? a developing trend? because there is so many moving pieces we have a has the law that is still vulnerable

a b. i can't remember the last time 11 on had a real government. and if the is re lease with american backing and its the west bank. um uh, we're gonna have a huge refugee problem. going into jordan. jordan goes already packed full of people that are refugees, and we have no idea what the syrian, what the, what used to be called syria is going to look like. and then we have a rack is input, apply even around. so i've kind of said a lot of pieces on the board move whichever one you want. go ahead mark. yeah. so in the middle east was inflamed already. you know before this, the events in syria and the year, you know, what came to a close and, and the uh, conflagration of the middle east will only continue into the next year. i think that syria is most likely to become both a failed and properly

a fractured state. i syria will now be the humpty dumpty who fell off the wall. busy and all the king's horses are all the heads you months, horses and all the hedge minds man will not be able to put syria back together again. i think it is very likely that the dis, stabilisation from syria will extend at least into lab and on and a rack potentially further abroad. i think we will see increased direct, an open conflict between israel and the us on one side and iran on the other. you know, look for. busy for air strikes on on you runs nuclear facilities, which iraq is real, is now salivating about. now that they're so happy that all of syria's air defense has disappeared overnight. and then yahoo has been openly talking about it. i think we will also see the palestinian problem come to an end with the complete ethnic

cleansing over the next 4 years of the palestinian people from the territory of a greater israel. that way, i mean we, we, we just saw headlines in the western media over the last week talking about, well, you know, uh, is realistic and part of syria, but, you know, as well as borders have fluctuated throughout history, right. i mean, the way they're there that have moved to have have moved. so israel's borders are on the move. and the palestinians will become what the jewish people once were a nomadic people without a whole and they will not just be gods. i think it will be brought into the west bank as well. and, and for finale, we're going to see economic turmoil throughout the world as trump begins is much uh, talked about terra for a renewal. busy of the tariff war, not only on american adversaries, but on america now i as well. so. so buckle off every where for economic thermal

george, i mean a market is set up a lot there. i mean, it's really interesting when we look at what's going on in what's called the greater middle east west asia, again to hear moniker. but, i mean there's, there's a very interesting complex being played out. no, not looking at states, okay. states in this region are very, very weak for the most part, um, you can even make that case about israel and its internal politics, but none of the less here. you have a new ottoman ism, you have american head gemini, and is really design is i'm, i mean, that's a very interesting parlay in a small geographical space. go ahead, george. a good. it is indeed, but what has turned out in 20232024. and what israel has demonstrated, hey, we can do all of this and we can get away with it. and basically just is rose as us

or is that has taken the hit and confir age of all of the predictions as on how israel's in terrible trouble. and that the, the axis of resistance is going to crush israel. now it's going to the other way. so what does that mean with the, with the incoming very zion is the administration of the trunk. is that the, this is the ball, but unity and they've been looking for this is the american uh, design is lobby. and that goes israel to reorganize the middle lease, whereby is ro once and for all, this is the 1st time and it says you once and broke and dispense with all of its enemies and play serious sir. it was a very big deal. uh for israel. now that it was it, you know, the long standing ally, so simply the soviet union was always the one on the questions, the ally, also read unit. and then, oh, russia that's gone. and, and so now, you know, the, the,

it's in iran that's in the cross hairs. and what are they going to do, really without any question, little drunk is going to launch. this is a maximum pressure campaign. 2 point oh. and you will find all kinds of separate this move and so the merging any around, you know, pollute, gives us areas um arabs tubs codes, and one of which will, of course, be sponsored by the united states and then into around the world. we'll find most of the, some liberal movements emerging, you know, women will be demonstrating, taking off that he jobs and the michael, the guy that says democracy is friday. and then of course, a given this of the chaos that's, let's go to emerge and syria, isis, isis is everywhere. you know, somehow, you know, then we, you know, we have to deal with isis. and the americans are going to say there's a realized as a sudden like suddenly, suddenly they came back suddenly and he came back. we have to deal with it. and that's with the moment when they're gonna stop bombing iran directly as a, just as

a bonus, syria directly thing we're going to deal with isis or salt region change. have also been removing regime change, which is bombing isis. so why don't you allow that? you know, you've just got to stop bombing iraq. then of course you just continue escal. yeah, i, i'm trying to get, i'm really confused. the difference between isis and l. chi though. okay, maybe maybe a topic for another program mark, go ahead and jump in. yeah, um, the current de facto ruler of syria in damascus. i'll gilani. he was the leader of isis in syria. right. the deputy advice is the leader in syria. and he then became the leader of joe, bought all moves road re branded as i you to hear all shawn. so what is the distinction? i, i, you know, i don't think there is one as well. so i is, this is most definitely back because they just over through, you know,

whether you want to call it ices are all kind of, but the south is the, you know, they just over through the, the government in, in, in syria. so that is, you know, not something that is, it will have rubber cautions it will have uh, blow back. and i think that if the us in israel go about another 2 point, oh george w bush attempts to re make the middle east that inevitably it will fail, they will topple some enemies in evident and eminently. they will create new enemies and new geo political problems. that they will saddled themselves like just as they did with the explosive influence of the rod in the region after the overthrow of saddam hussein, uh, unintended consequences. yeah. uh, this time it will be different. they always tell us that, okay, this time it will be different. george were rapidly running out of time. but you know,

china is always on the menu here. how is that going to play out in 2025. we've already heard about the tariffs that the trump administration is going to pursue. um, what is it the uh, a navy general said 20272028. the conflict with china? well, it's 2025. go ahead. well, i think that's a, again, china will be definitely a pre owned corporation of the trump administration. the kind of an interesting because it's obviously going to be in economic conflict. i mean, i don't think it's going to be about taiwan trowbridge show. no particular interest in the whole taiwan issue, any effect on like buying him. he refused to make any commitment to coming to taiwan is assistance in the event of an invasion. so i think it's going to be, and he's going to wage a serious a economic world against china. and particularly he's going to wage a war against china throughout the world. you know, he's gonna crack down the countries that are doing deals with china. you know,

some of this is going to stop black mainland extorting countries that are assigned onto china, including, including friends and allies. exactly. you know, use you sign on through this with, with china. you know, you've been a, you know, the china is going to build a portfolio or railway for you. you've got a field across the united states. i think that's always good to wait wage this war against china market. the last pontificating words without giving a prediction. go ahead. yeah, i don't. i don't think we should completely right off military conflict with china as, as the tariff or will escalate the economic war. tensions will grow on the ground and is trump has brought people in notice the deputy secretary of state l bridge. colby is one of the most blaming war mongering. china hawks imaginable. and trump may not care about the taiwan straits, but the taiwan straits care about,

you know, him, right. they, they, they care about, you know, the united states and the south china sea might be an even bigger flash point. then the taiwan straits. although intrinsically they are linked together. so, i mean, again, there's only 3 types of, of us, of foreign policy and political lead. they all want war with russia, china, e, ron, they just prioritize which of those 3 wars they want more. well, i mean, they had in 2025, which one is which one is on the top of the totem pole? i would have to say e, ron, but china comes close behind and russia hasn't gone away. george, hep, what, what's your, what's your ranking? i think i think it's the russia. 5 any around in china? ok, we still got 30 seconds. go ahead george. so, well, i think it so because russian work is the ongoing one and, and therefore because i think this is going to be the subject of, at least for the 1st 6 months,

maybe even the year of the trump administration. i've tried to deal with this uh, ukraine issue that's i think it's going to be very dangerous because i think it's, it's probably will fail. and if these initiative fails, then i think trunk will escalate and try to take risks. you know, that he sees himself as a risk beta and, and that's when it gets good. good, good for. okay. okay. i hope everybody had a good new year because according to my esteem, guess here is going to be the be a pretty gloomy and dreary 2025. anyway, i want to thank my guest in budapest and here in moscow. and of course, i want to thank our viewers for watching us here at our to see you next time. remember prospect the the

wireless news from google that just gives linked to the surface that seems to use to combine se, combining. so that's to combine the with the different blue, i mean the stipulation for 2 for the set them to the assembly of each choice. although we see a 4 digit pin on the knowledge of the order on the of seem to by day oh, don't allow for those to still still wait. the design was to inside the

easy to, to the the god, i rejoice it as john la, my phone and for his 2nd as president and his integration. he does the often cause that to be nice. by our side phone, we don't security. the french president drive to pin blame for his own foreign policy if they have an applicant as the middle east on it, ron at han revise it and that is part of the savings and see if it's a commitment to yeah, looks to lay down the in syria to name down of this for i'm for a whole lot and a movie overlays and to take them with the files and the state. plaza rule in