of the the, [000:00:00;00] the, [000:00:00;00] the hello and welcome to cross popcorn. all things are considered and peter lavelle, it would be nice to see in the new year with some optimism. unfortunately, this is not the case. the accumulation and deepening of many problems from last

year are still very much with us. so fucking love brace for impact, the cross talking 2025. i'm joined by my guess. george sent me while we and booty fast . he's a pod counselor at the guy goal, which be found on youtube and locals. and here in moscow we crossed to mark's level that he's an international relations and security analyst, right. building cross talk roles and effects. that means you can jump anytime you want. and i always appreciate it, mark, i'm going to go to you 1st and i'm going to kind of give to vent a little bit here during 2024. a lot of people we know in the pod cast world in the alternative media world in the world. we're really kind of obsessed with predictions. and well, there's a lot of a gotten a lot of faces the go around here. and so i would really like to avoid in this program to work on predictions because i think it's a useless endeavor. okay?

because most people end up being wrong and they don't always admit to it unfortunately. so having said that, i would like to look at developing trends. ok, now we've just talked about what happened in 2024. given that conversation. what happened in 2024? what kind of developing trends from the last year do we feel? do we see going into this new year mark as well? i, i think that you know, the 1st the elephant row in the room is the conflict in, in ukraine. i, i do not believe that the conflict and ukraine will, will end in the next year. i think the trend of the acceleration and the escalation of the conflict will continue despite you know, you know, but the new us administration of donald trump coming into office in the united states simply because i do not believe that there is any deal that the u. s, president,

whoever that us present it is going to offer russia that russian will accept and, and russia's terms are unacceptable to any us president, an attempt by the donald trump administration to, uh, you know, play a role in, oh, he's going to cut a deal between russia and ukraine as if he some kind of neutral outside arbiter is just patently false. this is ultimately a conflict between russia and the united states. uh, on the united states. it is a proxy war, but it is a conflict to the us is losing, and trump owns that conflict. as soon as he comes into office and whatever, he may think of the average him and zalinski and in person in whatever, you know, political domestic gripes he has against them justified. he does not want to be known as the president to hand the ukraine over to vladimir pro. no, us president wants that on that record. so i predict that the. busy will continue,

it will excel accelerate, it will escalate. and when porton talks to donald trump or his, you know, envoys or whatever and says yes, you know, oh thank you very much, but yet, yeah, it means net and then everyone will whisper in trump's years. you need to show strengths to have peace, you, you need to escalate in order to de escalate and trump himself has already promised to flood ukraine with weapons. and what weapons i have no idea because even he's admitted to the us military, industrial complex doesn't have them. but if you refuse, is his grand deal. so i think that the war will get nasty or will getting more desperate will continue to see more of bombings of civilian buildings, assassinations, the space of um, a cambridge him intelligence,

arson attacks that are occurring throughout russia. at the moment, we'll see more and more of these, you know, dirty tricks. i like to call them, you know, u. s. military might call them unconventional warfare because out of desperation and panic, they can't win on the battlefield. that's what they will turn to increasingly. it talk to you and i've talked about this a great deal and it's not between i like marks approach to all of us. i think he's largely right. it's, it's, it's not a conflict between ukraine and russia. it's a proxy war. it's a nato proxy war against russia using ukraine here. and if there's got it going to be any kind of coming to terms, it's ne, tow bid is gonna be coming to to or not, you, ukraine, ukraine is a footnote, it's a, it's a side bar to all of this here. and that's why i've been very frustrated with the commentary. well, the guy i've cut, i've called last leg is um i think mark is right. i don't know about the timeframe

. nobody really does. but um, it is as long as the united states is not losing troops and uh, they can keep printing money. um, well, you know, the ukrainians are gonna suffer russians will suffer, the europeans will suffer. well, what's that to an american administration, george? you know, i think i agree with that these are, i think that so the united states for late. so this has been kind of a good war then on losing any lives. it's the ukrainians on the russians. been slobs losing lives by the tens and hundreds of thousands. so why not to keep it doing? the one kelly at that i would introduce is that trump has clearly stated that he's going to end this war. that means he is going to launch a major diplomatic offensive to try to bring this done in. um,

initially i believe so. i think rough it come up say no, i think russia would have to play long. take this seriously. and then it really will, the question is if there is some guide or the on off, i would just say look, all right, we freeze the line of calls the line of conflicts here at this point um with the whole issue of uh, your brain and nato on the back burner um would be would that be acceptable now? i think, you know, obviously it's a very bad deal for a terrible deal because russel then gets nothing out of it. however, um they have been times in the past in of quite recent buzz reaction and seemed willing dukes and bad deals. and, and that's, i think is something that a clinic is, is matter of concern. i mean, we saw at the min minutes was one and 2 very bad ideas, or i'm sure a rush or not, i mean sign those deals, but went on. so it is your continually complaining. why don't you, adhering to men's,

when it was obvious to anyone that goes to west wasn't going to attempt them in school. so which was just using minutes in order to strengthen your brain for and eventually offensive. that was clearly on the cards and i think that's why a so largely this it was special as the s m o in uh, uh, february 2022. and then of course again roughly was ready to sign at this time. oh, which again was a bad deal for russian, but russian was, was ready to sign it and it has repeatedly proclaimed lou. yeah, we were ready to sign. we get our signatures are on the paper. so i don't think that's going to be in the like a, in the and then i think when, once that the trump initiative kind of comes to a dead end, then i think really the trump administration will escalate and i think escalate. okay, it's russia. um. but i am, i am concerned, i can't rule out fully. the restroom will sign on for something like okay,

mark synthesized everything we've already heard here because we have a 3 different kind of approaches. do it. go ahead. yeah. don't forget the austin on a framework for syria, which was another bad deal for russia. yeah, that's said lou, back on them catastrophically with our to, well, i'm sorry to interrupt mark because it's we, you and i had a different conversation on a different venue about this. how is the failure of us in a going to influence russian thinking in 2025? go ahead. um. well, 1st of all, i think that um, of russia is certainly has reduced influence and power projection capability in the middle east. i do not believe that russia will maintain military bases in the syria, even if or no one wants them there. ah, that's not, that's not going to happen. russia doesn't want to be under the leverage of, of our to one. and i'll call you to,

to maintain their bases there. apparently they're already trying to shift resources from those bases to libya. however, that's another risky situation. i, i think if they do that, roscoe will almost certainly get burned again. and ultimately they will decide that the africa and the middle east are outside of rushes, geo political horizons, and they will do what many russian critics of of who have said over the last decade is that russia should focus on ukraine. they should double down on ukraine and they should accept no compromises, no bad minsk again, that is a refrain that you hear in russian politics. right? no, no more. is them bulls? no more austin all frameworks. everything has to be settled from a position of strands on the battle field that there is no wiggle room there is no

coming back from. and if it does agree to another bad deal that will be the end of putting politically and russia. i that is something that almost seems on the general right after the last 2 decades, but i assure you, it is imaginable, especially among the military generals, the political elite in the country. right. and an ordinary russians, right. the russians that have sacrificed so much of the opprobrium. uh and uh, you know, russia patriot, the collective punishment of the west, the effects on the economy, the death, some tens of thousands of russian soldiers in ukraine. i don't think that the russian people will accept anything less than victory that has been defined by the russian president and the kremlin again and again unwaveringly. since the beginning of the conflict and has not wavered, has only strengthened since george before we go to the break here. get my marcus

said a lot there is the american the incoming administration. did they realize would, would something like wouldn't mark had to say to um, yeah, i think so. i mean, i, and then i think that if they get something like that, if they can get russia to agree to some do, but they've been hinting at any lead, still the down boot and i agree with marketing that the, the 1st assigns onto that it will eat on the maps not immediately, but it will lead to the end of the who to the americans who think hey, this is a good deal for us. we have done rather well out of it, which is why again, the regression should stay very, very fall from any kind of a deal. sure. so, you know, achieving the goals and i think ultimately the goal has to be regime change in care . because are you know, any do? well, i, you know, you will, we will freeze the line of miles away. and what have you still got a problem?

this was good me to on your board is this is a conversation i had with mark many, many moons ago, and he said that they should have been redeemed change of the res, seem change back in 2014 gentlemen. i'm going to jump in here. we're going to go into a go to a short break, and after that short break, we'll continue our discussion on the new year 2025. stay with our team the

. the activity because that's the deal and mostly families. zip leslie's new. yes. inferior jim. good. the i'm assuming these people don't lose some of the no, no go a commercial versus coleman the sofa . soon if i give us to be a senior citizen, all over the phone with me. so what i'm seeing

is the 4th most viewed in the water visiting with the when i say this is, i mean the math, the world bang for the federal reserve, the dollar itself, the swift painting system, all this has become a set of full, a geo political instruments that the west uses routinely and aggressively to intimidate a restrict you know, dominate to other countries. the, the welcome act across software. all things are considered. i'm peter lavelle to remind you we're discussing the new year 2025, the

. okay, let's go back to mark my market. the end of november, beginning of december of last year, we saw a, an event that no one in that i know of predicted. it was a complete collapse of the state and sovereignty of syria. is this the order of on the menu for the middle east for 20? 25. is this the some the beginning of something a developing trend? because there is so many moving pieces we have a has the law that is still vulnerable a b. i can't remember the last time 11 on had a real government. and if the is re lease with american backing and its the west bank. um uh, we're gonna have a huge refugee problem. going into jordan. jordan knows already packed full of people that are refugees. we have no idea what the series, what the, what used to be called syria is going to look like. and then we have a rack is an apply even around. so i've kind of said

a lot of pieces on the board move, whatever one you want. go ahead mark. yeah. so the middle east was in flame. uh, already you know, before this, the events in syria and the year you know, what came to a close and, and the conflagration of the middle east will only continue into the next year. i think that syria is most likely to become both a failed and properly a fractured state. i syria will now be the humpty dumpty who fell. busy off the wall. busy and all the king's horses are all the heads, your mom's horses and all the hedge minds man will not be able to put syria back together again. i think it is very likely that the dis, stabilisation from syria will extend at least into lab and on and a rack potentially further abroad. i think we will see increased direct

open conflict between israel and the us on one side and iran on the other. you know, look for air strikes on on that the e ron's nuclear facilities which iraq is real, is now salivating about now that they're so happy that all of syria's air defense has disappeared overnight and then yahoo has been openly talking about it. i think we will also see the palestinian problem come to an end with the complete ethnic cleansing over the next 4 years of the palestinian people from the territory of, of greater israel that we, i mean we, we, we just saw headlines in the western media over the last week talking about, well, you know, uh israel is taking part of syria out but you know, is roy's borders have fluctuated throughout history, right. i mean, the way they're there that have moved to have,

have moved. so israel borders are on the move and the palestinians will become what the jewish people once we're a no matic people without a home, it will not just be gods. i think it will be brought into the west bank as well. and. and for finale, we're going to see economic turmoil throughout the world as trump begins is much uh, talked about terra for a renewal of the tariff war, not only on american adversaries, but on america. now i as well. so, so buckle off every where for economics term on george, i mean a market is set up a lot there. i mean it's really interesting when we look at what's going on in what's called the greater middle east west asia. again, to hear moniker um, but i mean there's, there's some very interesting complex being played out and i'm not looking at states. okay. states in this region are very, very weak for the most part. um, you can even make that case about israel and its internal politics,

but none the less here. you have a new ottoman is, um, you have american hegemony and is really zionism. i mean, that's a very interesting parlay in a small geographical space. go ahead, george. a good it is indeed, but what has turned out in 20232024. and what israel has demonstrated, hey, we can do all of this and we can get away with it. and basically just israel's adversaries, that has taken the hit and concrete all of the predictions. so somehow israel's in terrible trouble, and that the, the axis of resistance is going to crush israel. now it's going to the other way. so what does that mean with the, with the incoming very sign is the administration of the trunk. that is that this was the maturity of the they've been looking for. um versus the american uh design is lovely. and because israel to reorganize the middle lees web,

i use ro once and for all, this is the 1st time and it says you once and broke and dispense with both of its enemies and play serious sir. it was a very big deal. uh for israel. now that it was it, you know, the long standing ally, so as the leave of the soviet union was always the one on the questions, the ally of a so read unit and then, oh russia, that's gong. and uh, and so now you know, the, the, it's in the around that's in the cross hairs. and what are they going to do, really without any question, little drunk is going to launch. this is a maximum pressure campaign. 2 point. oh. and you will find all kinds of separate this move once the emerging, any around, you know, below, gives us areas um, arabs tubs, codes, and all of which will cause be sponsored by the united states and then into around

the world. we'll find most of the, some liberal movements emerging, you know, women will be demonstrating, taking off that he jobs, and the michael, the guy that says democracy is thriving. and then of course, a given list of the chaos that's, let's go to emerge and syria, isis, isis is everywhere. you know, somehow, you know, that we, you know, we have to deal with isis. and the americans are going to say it as a realized as a sudden like suddenly, suddenly they came back suddenly and he came back. we have to deal with it. and that's with the moment when they give us the bombing iran directly as a, just as they bones syria directly saying we're going to deal with isis or salt region change. have also been removing regime change, which is bombing isis. so why don't you allow that? you know, you've just got to stop bombing iraq. then of course you just continue escal. yeah, i, i'm trying to get, i'm really confused. the difference between isis and l. chi though. okay. maybe. maybe a topic for another program mark,

go ahead. jump in. yeah. the current de facto ruler of syria in damascus. i'll gilani. he was the leader of isis in syria. right. the deputy advice is the leader in syria. and he then became the leader of jo. bought all moves throughout, re branded as i, you to hear all shot. so what is the distinction? i, i, you know, i don't think there is one as well. so isis is most definitely back because they just over through, you know, whether you want to call it ices are all kind of, but the south is the, you know, they just over through the, the government in, in, in syria. so that is, you know, not something that is, it will have rubber cushions it will have uh, blow back. and i think that if the us in israel go about another 2 point, oh george

w bush attempts to re make the middle east that inevitably it will fail, they will topple some enemies in evident and eminently. they will create new enemies and new geo political problems. that they. busy out of themselves like just as they did with the explosive influence of the rod in the region after the overthrow of saddam hussein, uh, unintended consequences. yeah. uh, this time it will be different. they always tell us that, okay, this time it will be different. george were rapidly running out of time, but you know, china is always on the menu here. how is that going to play out in 2025. we've already heard about the tariffs that the trump administration is going to pursue. um, what is it the uh, a navy general said 2027. 2028. the conflict with china? well, it's 2025. go ahead. i think that's a, again, a china will be definitely a preoccupation of the trumpet ministration via the kind of an interesting because

it's obviously going to be in economic conflict. i mean, i don't think it's going to be about taiwan trowbridge show. no particular interest in the whole taiwan issue and in fact, unlike by them, he refused to make any commitment to coming to tie one's assistance in the event of an invasion of. so i think it's going to be, and he's going to wage a serious a economic world against china. and particularly he's going to wage a war against china throughout the world. you know, he's going to track down the countries that are doing deals with china. you know, some of this is going to stop black mainland extorting countries that are assigned onto china, including, including friends and allies. exactly. you know, use you sign on through this with, with china, you know, you're going to have, you know, the china is going to build a portfolio or railway for you. you got a field, the ross of the united states. i think that's always good to wait wage this war against the china market. the last pontificating words without giving

a prediction. go ahead. yeah, i don't. i don't think we should completely write off military conflict with china as, as the tariff or will escalate the economic war. tensions will grow on the ground and is trump has brought people in. notice the deputy secretary of state l bridge. colby is one of the most blaming war monger in china hawks imaginable. and trump may not care about the taiwan straits, but the taiwan straits care about, you know, him. right. they, they, they, they care about, you know, the united states and the south china sea might be an even bigger flash point. then the taiwan straits. although intrinsically they are linked together. so, i mean, again, there's only 3 types of, of us, of foreign policy and political lead. they all want war with russia, china, e, ron, they just prioritize which of those 3 wars they want more. well, i mean,

and in 2025, which one is which one is on the top of the totem pole? i would have to say e, ron, but china comes close behind and russia hasn't gone away. george, hep, what, what's your, what's your ranking? i think i think it's the russia of any around in china. ok. we still got 30 seconds . go ahead. george. well, i think it's still because russian war is the ongoing one. and, and therefore, because i think this is going to be the subject of, at least for the 1st 6 months, maybe even the year of the trump administration. i've tried to deal with this. uh ukraine issue that's i think it's going to be very dangerous because i think it's, it's probably will fail. and if these initiatives fail, then i think trump will escalate and try to take risks. you know, that he sees himself as a risk beta and, and that's when it gets good. good, good for. okay. okay. i hope everybody had a good new year because according to my esteem guest here is going to be a be

a pretty gloomy and dreary 2025. anyway, i want to thank my guest in budapest and here in moscow. and of course, i want to thank our viewers for watching us here at our to see you next time. remember, the russian states never as tight as i'm one of the most sense community. not getting hold of all sense. and the in the system must be the one else holes. question about this, even though we will then in the european union,

the kremlin machine, the state on russia to day and split the r t smooth neck, keeping our video agency roughly all the band on youtube. the question, did you say stephen twist, which is the, the, the, the many places in the was wages the on the divide between the 2 oceans. and the, you might not think kids. what does this, hey, and what's his northern or found your vision and the can or is that us national park? and today's, we know the stuff was, i'm taking a deep side, interesting page because the book i did it because it still is deal of the mostly summaries. zip leslie's news.

yes. and you know, you've got to keep you on who needs to go dollars. so that just some of the no, no go commercial bushes swimming sofa soon if i do is to be a senior citizen all over the phone with me . so what i'm seeing is the 4 of my speed and the reward of this to