also known in the world as arms dealers, that we must not be ashamed of that the hello and welcome to cross on full lines were all things we considered 9 peter a little because donald trump has a different a new grand strategy for american foreign policy. a policy approach that is a departure from the past. if so, then what can we and the world expect to discuss these issues and more, i'm joined by my guess, george samuel in budapest. he has a pod cast with a guy goal, which means bound on youtube and locals. and here in moscow we have marks level that he is an international relations and security analyst, a gentleman crosstalk roles in effect, that means you can jump anytime you want. then i would appreciate it proudly start out with mark and here in moscow, you know, mark,

this program is about what kind of vision donald trump may or may not have a grand strategy for american foreign policy. as everyone is aware, there's a lot of things going on in the world and trump is he may have before becoming president and the last few weeks. i mean some interesting proclamations about what he will or will not do. but i'm going to be an orthodox here and started kind of in reverse. mark is widely said. then whoever the american people voted for and they get john mccain. we have john mccain coming into office. i actually would say no, there may be an attend by the a neo con and when i say that i use it in the, the so we say the modern bi partisan sense of the word. it's no longer a truly conservative but nose committed to us a gemini, and primacy around the world. they may try to manipulate trump as they quite

openly and clearly did. so according to john bolton's memoirs, manipulate him back into that position. but i don't think that he sees international relations and geo politics through that prism. in fact, i think he whatever we may think about his uh, conclusions and solutions, i think he's correctly identified. the problem is that the us is suffering from an enormous amount of we might have previously said imperial overreach. now we might say hedge a monic overreach. it can no longer afford to be the what it calls the police men of the world, or the military dictate or of the world. and it needs to prioritize and i can come to grips with the world of rising great powers. now trump's solutions to that

is, is another question entirely, but i think he's, he's, i correctly identified the problem that the pursuit of a gemini and the benefits of it, of the cost far outweigh the benefits to the united states today. so him and those around them have correctly identified the problem. the next question is, what is donald trump, the vision and solution? yeah, i mean, i think, and george mark really is centered on the most important point in germany. and it's really basically how to maintain it. now we've, we've had, in the past, we've had this a liberal order that has been used as a ideological cover. and what we've seen over the last few weeks for the incoming president is, you know, refreshingly, a little bit of realism. realism can be used towards maintaining hit germany as well. i mean, the instant the same thing. it says address stuff in a different way,

george go, i think so. and i think that's why it's so difficult really to get a handle on what's likely to come from the trump administration. that's the trump really sees his next 4 years as a kind of civilizational renew. well, i mean, he's going, he's going for broke. he was a really make his mark on the world and he wants america to get back to some vague idea of what it was. so he really is, this is very important for him to sing, but somehow a mirror and they'll be able to kind of cultural renewal of america. that's why it was significant. but the point of these 3 of elderly hollywood stars is, he's emissary, is through hollywood because i think he's gonna see if he sees that as part of his civilizational rejuvenation. i'm proud of that, i think is his notion of going back to some idea of what america was before

in a box on world war 2, even before the bar on this all the cold war is global alliances. and that's why i think he's looking where really adds that you particularly the post cold war era of really you can is good as globalism entangling alliances. um, creating this uh, you know, in this a liberal world, all of the rules based on the policing, the walls and essentially getting entangled with every single country's internal affairs. so, so this is, you know, work and whatever happens anywhere is somehow a crisis with the united states. he wants to get away from that and just simply focus on what is important for the united states. the problem is, is that it's easier said than done. and all the presidents, i've also thought about that and you know, it's a, you know, because of the way back to richard nixon and, you know, those. yeah, well, we'll have to just focus on what's important for us. you can just simply, you know,

dissipate our energy on pointless conflicts. so i think there's going to be a challenge. and i think is mark points out there. there's a lot that he's could surrounded himself with many of you know what the neo cons intervention is much mccaney ex. what is determined to continue as before? yeah, well i'm asked me the argument would be made and will be made against trump in a, in a matter of months, days maybe hours after he takes office is that, well, there's a certain way of doing business and presidents. well they come and go. but we have an established approach to governing the world to hedge them. i mean, we've seen this movie before. trump did try it and they pulling out of trips from syria and the easiest example, or if i'm making a bold overturn in north korea, we all know how these things ended. why is it going to be different this time? okay, so 1st of all, let's, let's, let's address a,

a interesting point that the george brought up about trump, diplomatic, shall we say, sensibilities sending mel gibson to be the diplomat. the rest of hollywood that either indicates the drums, diplomatic sensibilities are very poor, or that he's throwing hollywood the collective big middle finger, which, which i think is probably closer he's, he's effectively trolling hollywood and, and letting them know who's in charge. i think that's more to the point. george also made a good point that dovetails. and so what you asked is that previous presidents, although not quite in the same way, have also previously within living memory, committed to a kind of re prioritization of the united states over its foreign policy and taking george w bush from us the same thing. and then he, a media,

his administration immediately said about trying to re make the middle east. bill clinton did the same thing and then they ended up be getting the car voting up of serbia in, in the middle of europe as well as getting entangled elsewhere around the world. so there is an orthodoxy of foreign policy, right? and this is, you know, clearly decided on, you know, ben rhodes called at the blob. you can call it the deep state, you can call it the permanent bureaucracy. but these are the real people that decide us for and in military policy. and they are not elected and they don't go away, certainly not very easily. victoria newland is no longer part of the administration, but she has almost certainly a key constituent part of the blog and her husband kagan just reminded us of that. with an article decry trumps position on ukraine going forward. so i think that actually this is probably going to consume

a great deal of the trump presidency over the next few years as he tries to book that foreign policy orthodoxy that deep states, they are going to resist, that they are going to try to manipulate him and if manipulation fails, it will become outright warfare. and we saw what happened to the last president who promised the scatter, the c i a to the wins he's a, shall we say, quickly exited the presidential scene. so i've often described trump as a chaos bomb and it's all a kind of like a bouncing betsy, one that goes in multiple different directions. and right now it looks like that chaos bomb is going off. and one on the transatlantic relationship with threats about annex in a greenland in canada and re taking the panama canal. you know that that more an

effect on south american relations, per se, but also inside the beltway. and i think that's where trump's real fight, where he's real conflict of his ministration, may end up as in dc as he attempts to take on the blog. and that is going to be a rough ride for well trump, everyone but outside powers may well decide to see that that is a point that they can take advantage of and exploit the situation to george, what are you putting your money in the blog or trying well, a history would suggest that the blah blah will prevail. i mean, you know, the trump, so far he got off to a reasonable stop. he weighed in on the middle east. he applied pressure on the net in the o, and he demonstrated to everybody that the previous administration could have done

far more than it actually did to restrain israel. and, and that is a hopeful sign because, you know, and if we could look back on history, actually, if republicans have been the only ones will actually ever apply to any pressure against israel and we're going all the way back goes to eisenhower. and so, you know, blood shooting is relative withdrawing from sign. i would know that reagan getting on the phone to him and not him begging or, you know, telling him to knock it off. even the hapless george w bush said at one point that enough is enough. and before his fame is a road map that eventually led to kind of a serious piece negotiation of the old met piece plan. so, you know, trump is actually to get them following, and the tradition of republicans will actually, you know, apply some pressure on israel. any trump demonstrated, well, he can do it. the question is, will he persist with this? um, because he is going to come under a great deal of pressure. i mean,

it's already being applied against them. you know, to knock it off. same thing. what will happen with the ukraine? he's currently outlining some kind of a vision or bringing this the thing to an end. now it does offer a lot of um, the steps along the way and with the heat. they will definitely be an enormous effort, both in washington and brussels in london to swore any attempt on trump spot to uh, bring this uh a what blower and ukraine to minute. i want to talk about you claiming the 2nd half of the pro brandon marketing. the, the, it is possible that the piece feelers, a plan will be put out, but it's all a smoke screen because i know they can hand it and they're going just to double down that somebody knows of units. i, you know, the last legs. it's almost over, you're all wrong, and my guess here are going to make that point. when we come back from our break gentlemen, i'm going to jump in here. we're going to go to a short break. and after that short break, we'll continue our discussion on drums for a policy stay with our team,

the same just to shape house because the application and engagement includes the trails. when so many find themselves will support, we choose to look so common ground the the next to me at least no greetings from the woods. and then the police looked on any better. she hung it almost like a sudden and especially the queen of the life of the month minority to fill up just

about the cho shippers towards the cause of the little fish as well as learners. are you familiar with but some of the nice and that was quite that's not local news because the spanish so i assume you it is cool, but it's a difficult time. yeah. but i'm using it or do you watch any sports? it's a little less to shut somebody listing and you're not going when one of them is rachel doesn't like us and us so less than for almost 137000000. those are the buses because i'm not sure i'm putting them, but i thought, but i thought of us with bullet february. i seen you and you're saying, well, the

welcome magic crossed on bullhorn time peter linelle here were discussing some illness. mark i at the very end of the 1st part of the program. i mentioned you crenan obviously, and george has already pointed out they've done before even becomes president. donald trump is a made, his will known. let's put it that way. in research, when media reports tell us about what's going on in palestine, israel, so i'm still a skeptic about this, i think. where is the kind of thing? it's not the end of anything. it may be the end of the beginning, but this is a picture of this is a, a situation that is far more complex. it's easy is take away and i go in, okay, that's if that's the, that's what public relations is all about. and we all know that trump is interested in only lands, however, that is defined, but i want to go mark, i want to go back to ukraine. well is seen um um the benchmarks and moving out and uh from 24 hours is that will be take yeah. all be taken care of and you bring the

for the now duration. now it's a 100 days, it's 6 months. so kind of echoing what we said in the 1st part of the program. i'm sorry, i'm going to have to express my screen skepticism the foreign policy, bob, the, the state, whatever we want to call it, they're not going to give him a wind here. mark. yeah, 1st of all, i was just gonna ask, beg me uh for being uh you know, permission to be a cynic and a skeptic on trump suddenly bringing peace to the middle east. widow, of course they'll know what kind of leverage, what kind of carrots and sticks kind of made grow? chloe. so and yeah, we don't, we don't know what the story is, but if anyone thinks that netanyahu is cowled, and then suddenly going to curl over and show his stomach to donald trump. i very much have doubts whether the ceasefire will last 24 hours or, or, you know, at least a couple of days in the drums administration. and there's already signs, you know, coming from the, the yahoo administration that, that, you know,

that i haven't seen that. they've actually seized their strikes a guy. so let's, let's put it that way. but, you know, but at least he made an attempt that made as well known as, as you said, as to ukraine. yeah. there's so much input this behind this and there's no question that trump one doesn't like the q evergreen's leadership. you know, either the previous one or, or this one, he regards them as his domestic political enemies in the united states because of the way they quite stupidly and heavy handedly weighed in to us domestic politics on the issue. and the columbus, the attempts to manipulate him afterwards or transparent, even i think, to trump. and he's certainly thinks that so not in us is, uh, is, you know, like, it was show we say red line strategic interest. he thinks it's a waste of money. he also has nothing but contempt for the majority of western

political leaders in europe, who are the biggest, you know, a crusaders in this particular measure and, and that, that brings up here all the obstacles to this. one of them has already been launched by one of trump's political enemies, the prime minister of the united kingdom care stormer, who evidently sent political operatives to the united states to campaign effectively for joe biden. really don't move there, but he was just in care of and citing a largely rhetorical and substance list. what is written year commitment security guarantee? do you agree? and that really doesn't actually say much at all. he's attempting to one, continue the western process of uh, you know, lifting his leg in urinating on t as, as western geo political territory. but it's also

a direct shot at the trump administration. you'll think you're going to pull out of this. i don't think so. so he's that this is definitely intended as an obstacle or what you know, of course, the signal to russia, but also a signal to the trump administration. and these western political leaders. they are committed to this conflict and they are very upset. they were upset during the 1st trump administration. they expressed joy at the return of the hedge a month to form under joe biden. and they are furious at being put in the same position again, say bully, even us, lead western global to germany. more than the u. s president does, and they're going to try to rope him back into the ukraine conflict. whatever he may think about it or not. you know, to the mark brings up such an excellent point when it comes to ukraine. trump is going to be paddling america's alliance partners, and the beltway,

and where the negotiations come in with the russians. it's way down there. i mean, it is actually a low priority, because he has to get through may this entangling alliance system. that is, you know, and we've all talked about how that is so counterproductive to the national interest of all members of this alliance, not just the united states. and trump is going to have to battle a bi partisan commitment in congress and let alone the in transients that he's going to have in the defense department, the state department, etc, may take this. and the reason this battle is far more complex than mainstream left or right media is presenting at george. so i think it's going to be extremely difficult. and then if you have to then oswell, house law is trump prepare to confront the bureaucracy and to confront his laser while it is now you've got these un nato people. my crown and the rest of

them were eager to send in european forces into ukraine. now, this is all of cause nonsensical because trump himself knows the one if you're going to send a new european forces. that's just a mechanism for drawing austin. because if you're going to solve that, then you're going to come come back in to us as a all that help us out and help us out. and in any case, even the whole idea of deploying your bmw forces, or the emperor requires american logistics in a, you know, americans live that maybe they're not going to be able to do it themselves. just so trump knows that this is, this is a here really of a, you know, poison child is the europeans offer a home. well, you don't have to do it, you know, we'll do it. um, so what i think is likely to happen. i think trump and then you know, and my uncle ruby ever suggested this other stuff to guess, and he's going to offer some version of mints. great. let's phrase the conflict.

and um, you know, we'll put off the nato membership until glen age, a membership into mean definitely a future. and uh, and then maybe we can talk about some kind the partials, sanctions relieve him, just to sweeten the pot a little bit. i don't think it's gonna work. i mean, i think this is the, i don't think there's anything here for the russians. i don't use anything, even a ukraine, that doesn't seem this is in any way and beneficial and your opinions are going to resist. and then i think for a few months, i think it was little dry going for a few months. i think trunk will have to then decide, well what, what do i do now? and i think that's the moment that the pressure will arise as a, well, you need to escalate, you know, you need to, you really need to show bolton, who's the boss. you really need to show that somebody that because that's the only way you can get food into the go shaping, tell you when you're not going to get him there. but by offering him un sanctions or leave a sweetening the thoughts,

you're going to really get tough with him. and i have to believe trump will go down that path. unfortunately, i have to agree with mark, even with george just said is which is absolutely spot on. in my opinion here, except the, the next few months is going to be a discussion on a dialogue, a monologue among western stakeholders. and all of this we haven't even mentioned, we know what the russian position is. it's been a clear over and over and over again. i kind of m. s as a point to the start negotiations, but we're not even there. we're not even there right now. it's going to be trump against, like, the nato con these members of the leadership in europe and, and the people that are involved just to warn him like they did in his 1st administration. i think george's right escalation is virtually inevitable. yeah, absolutely. i think that the georgia spot on that um, you know, the rush oh, we don't, we'll probably, it will have discussions with the trump administration,

certainly. and it's very likely that you know, from what we for the trump will actually want to meet with quote, and then they'll talk and they'll say, you know, hey, it's really nice that we can sit down and actually talk to each other. again, there's a lot of things in the world we need to discuss and have dialogue on, but as for your proposals, you know, for you. okay, and you're on the losing side of this conflict with the tech that we direct the terms not you. right? and if you're not willing to agree to our terms, which we've made clear, you can continue to talk amongst yourselves all you want. but meanwhile, we're going to continue. uh, you know, creating facts on the, on the ground on the battlefield, which we're doing increasingly. and so the cries will be in washington to escalate to de escalate to show strength, right? and that's how they will try to manipulate and rope them into both the european leaders and within his own the neo cons in his own administration of weight. so there is a plethora, and the rest of the blob and the beltway,

and that will be the crux moment. how to, how does trucks respond? they'll be 2 of them. one when, when clinton says yet the thanks, but no thanks. and the 2nd one will come further down the road, probably maybe considerably further down the road. but you know, in a year or 2, when russian troops are crossing the night per and moving on, keep it right. and the policy will be, it will be huge crux moment. so and george has this monologue discussion, debate, etc, etc. so we'll go on week after week, month the after months because they're putting the gold host for the route, you cry and gets weaker and smaller. so i mean when, when are they negotiating for that? well, that's the side. it's a, it's a cynical policy that was a, that's been initiated by the united states, which is, well, we're going to, we can rush, are we going to after we're going to bleed ross? are we going to injure russia? we have the empower is russia, but by doing so,

you're doing it at the expense of ukraine and the, you know, the american policy in a, to oppose it was. so what i mean, we, you know, the ukraine is expandable, the problem is, is escalate to de escalate wirelessly. is that it's a never ending. that's. and once you go down that product, that means the war uh, goes on forever. because of course, the moment, uh, usually it seems as if, hey, well, you know, the, maybe maybe we can now sit down and negotiate where and where in a stronger position. so, well, no, no, because then, you know, that's, that was because we got tough with russia. that's what i went to strong by means we need to escalate even more, and then we'll get it be made even better positions, sylvester, and that's and that's the role for it in less walks. and, and, and this is because this has been the positive by the ministration. and you have to believe that, you know, trump will continue with this being the kind of boldness of vision that you would need really to, to, to take this thing by the scruff of the neck and just bring it to an end. i don't see this in front, but just as it is better than nothing in the past that would suggest that he would

expand that kind of energy and to withstand the, the attacks that would come against them. including, you know, in peace when possible, assassination, everything. i just don't see trump doing though, it will make the effort. but i just, i don't see that he will assist with this all the more. so he said he has other things he wants to to exactly. exactly. give me the last minute. go ahead. yeah. so that brings us what he wants to do, his grand strategy visit, and it may actually not be much better for americans or the rest of the world than had gemini primacy taking look at what he said about greenland in canada, in panama. what he's talking about is most likely it appears old school imperialism . right? you know, maybe it was a realist element of great powers and spears of influence. but you know, he, what on called the monro doctor. we can call it the don road doctor. and right. i mean that's,

that's the western hemisphere is mine. i may not care about anything else. there has been surprised really little objection from the new york times into the washington post. and the trump suggestion that the u. s. takes control of greenland, where it already has military bases, by one way or another that's that's, that's pretty of what mark, let me, let me ask you real quick because these are like easy wins is. this is this part of the calculus movie, and i think i got the panama, i got care about it. and what about the middle east? well, what about you? what about china? well, okay i, that's the way i kind of look at it or a gentleman, we'd probably run out of time. i want to take my guess in budapest and most kind of course, i want to thank our viewers for watching us c a r t c. and next time, remember across knuckles, the

i look forward to talking to you all that technology should work for people. a robot must obey the orders given it by human beings, except we're so shorter is that conflict with the 1st law. show your identification, we should be very careful about our personal intelligence. the point obviously is to place uh trust rather than fit the area. i mean with the artificial intelligence, we have somebody with the in the a robot must protect this phone. existence was on the launch of a special military operation mold in $13000.00 far less than the race of joining

the ukrainian miller tray. williams, lot of things are good enough to still get an opinion i need for 2 of us doing the with any of them, but i feel it because it was trustworthy. which of my friend build for the fine you is fine. yeah. the the butterfield. yeah. my daughter at the end of what it is, i do know that you know for your state, okay, that the breakdowns gets dumped out as long as you might have somebody to cover the timing from the fonts. who's the sean nitika and sylvia. it's just funny back of the cisco on the top of the field of worship. glove means that there's a slight because you can use that as a beautiful supervisor, federal insurance, lima, florida. she and you also like you strong enough, listen to the physical knots.