long range missiles can hit deep inside rush. i could potentially start broadway 3 . but if people take politically, whereas with the social democrats, that sounds like a no go because shots, literally campaign against that. and with the a f d. the populace last party. now at 9 percent, so sarah wagner, next me a party which is just a huge, with 5 percent forming a sizable opposition. all of those guys together. they could also contribute significantly to blocking any escalation over ukraine. they the ones that consistent. i'm people policy policy that will definitely not agree to arms packages all deployed the boon does that, whether in ukraine or elsewhere, they wanted to keep us out of discipline. this talk by any means necessary. we do not yet know if they have succeeded, but i think it honors us with the effort they fought against us. okay, so bottom line with the selection any and marks gets the play captain of

a crew force together through opportunism and with a whole lot of popular circling like sharks from europe all the way to the us. so we will be interesting to see just how long this particular ship matches to stay afloat. all right, our to contributor rachel marston. thanks a lot for bringing us those details. us. all that's the news for this hour, but stick around because there's more coming your way in just about 30 minutes here on our to international the welcome to cross the bullhorn is we're all things are considered. i'm peter lavelle . trump's ukraine initiative. is it real and what is next?

is the u. s. a europe rift for real? or is it merely kabuki theater as differently? are these serious policies or trumps personal preferences? to discuss these issues and more, i'm joined by my guess, george samuel, we in budapest, he's a pod cast where the goggle, which can be found on youtube and locals. and here in moscow we have marks level that he's an international relations and security analyst. all right, gentleman cross type roles in effect, that means you can jump any time you want, and i always appreciate it. all right, let's start with mark here in, in moscow. would beginning to get some of the outlines of what the so called uh trump, ukraine piece initiative is um, it was very controversial would be tags that said in a, on this european trip about basically nato membership is off the table for ukraine . the us will not commit troops. any european troops under the flag of nato will not have article 5 protection. and now we're going through this. absolutely absurd,

ridiculous, rare earths, minerals, a dance which is absurd on its face. but personally, i think they're talking about that. so people don't ask about nato membership. i think it's a peer diversion. we're all we're on this mark because, um, i have to say uh from his team doesn't seem to be a 100 percent on boards, mark. yeah, obviously there's some dissension within the administration, which is fairly predictable. it's the, i think the only unpredictable thing is that they're able to trump and, and the people who want to the escalate. the us from the conflict in ukraine still seem to be pushing forward successfully, even if there is dissension from kellogg waltz and a few others within the administration. it's happening behind closed doors. for the most point. i think that the europeans, of course, uh,

and plenty of people within the us and the entirety of the west and mainstream media are on the attack against trump. there the accusation is that all of this, that heads upset are concessions being given to russia before negotiations, even begin betrayal of ukraine, etc. but i mean, peter ags of had the perfect come back. he said, this isn't concessions. this is reality. i. you are not living in reality, we are living in reality and what he's not saying, but he is almost, you know, completely implied. is that the war as last we, you, by we, he, me, they mean you because of course, the trump administration wasn't themselves directly involved in, but the west has lost this conflict. and it's time to own up and recognize that the europeans aren't ready to recognize that yet. but i think the other important thing that higgs upset has said since is he acknowledged that russia has

superior already in terms of manpower and fire power. a significant advantage on the battlefield and that no western aid packages, no future western aid packages, will be able to change that calculus. and that is all, most important to a realist recognition of the reality on the battlefield, that no other western liter, you know, the exceptions or bon and fits, so have owned up to it is either or george, the, the other penny hasn't really dropped because the good criticism of peg 7, obviously the trump administration in general was that what concessions of the russians making now, taking on board with mark just said yeah, and i agree with him completely. but what i think this is all about, unfortunately for the ukrainian people, not it's the leads,

it's never really been about them. what trump is gonna say now is that we, we've made it very clear about nato expansion, american troops, etc, etc. no rush, you have to parlay with us on china on a ran and then north korea. that's the next to drop here. it's obvious to me, george, i think that's right. and because really the question is, why has the been this reversal of us all to say that in the sense it isn't totally a reversal on trump's part that is consistent with his themes in 2015. 20 is like saying, he said, then i don't see why there should be a conflict with russia, russia it could be of a pod, not on. and instead then brailey where it implies that the real adversary of the united states is a china. then subsequently, you could go into the whole thing with the wrong and is the seems to be coming back

to that though, that is an immediate ticket. so he wants russia as a partner in that, the problem is that he's not going to talk to russian said, look, we have given you everything that you desire, you know, we've given you, you know, respect, states, us, we're going to treat you as our, uh, geo, political pop now, um, but we want something in return. we want you to end this war now. but in other words, you know, wherever you are now, you know we, we want to cease fire now and we want it done. and this is where to gets problematic. for sure, because if they, if it's a cx 5 now, and then there's still a lot of the goals that rusher has yet to accomplish. and of course, are actually has unfortunate experiences coming to agreements with the west and the pos whereby, you know, everything's fine in a world friendly. and then 234 years later we've got another conflict. so it's

a very difficult situation for russia to be in this. clearly it has been like the norma's changing so on from uh, washington which is very positive. but then roger has to respond to that because any pressure doesn't respond, then trump is going to turn around and say, russia is the problem. the europeans arrived. russia was being always the problem. we need to then go back to the policy of escalate the good guys. russia. yeah, well oakland impeccable logic because what we have so far, gentleman is that, you know, there's talk about ukraine. it either it's in the, uh, in the center of the conversation around the periphery. but the only thing that is really changed beyond the rhetoric is that the us and russia are, are talking well that, that's a good thing here. but they kind of echo with georgia said there the russians want some iron clad on paper signed notarized, witnessed documents about their own security,

because we don't need to waste our time going through the litany of lies and deceptions a we, you know, we, the cool regime in 2014 was instantly recognized against all democratic norms by the west. and then we had the machinations of the o. s. c e were just prior to the s m o. then we had the minutes process $1.00 and $2.00, then we had is simple. well, i am going to little bit naymark. they want something more solid than that we've had in the past mark. yeah, i rushed. it's going to drag this out forever. and they've already given plenty of science, they're glad they're talking right. they've got plenty of the deal with the u. s. on, but they've made clear 1st of all, they've pointed out that they have no one in care of that can sign anything. so trump team is actually seems focused on getting rid of zelinski, right? yeah. and that's going to be problem magic and rush. it can just sit back and eat popcorn. well that happens. they have don't want to cease fire. and to be perfectly, i don't think they intend to stop the middle of the conflict in any way, shape,

or form any time soon. they've got their book on the key. every james throat, they're not gonna pull it off. they're not gonna play that hollywood game of. i should've killed you when i had the chance this time. i think they're going to go all the way. and i think trump has made a couple of statements in the past week that show that he actually understands the position that the u. s. is in, in these negotiations and on the battlefield. he said that russia doesn't need a deal. they can take all of you crane if they want. he said that he also pointed out that russia could of a bomb the key of into the ground. it could have destroyed it several times over and has no interest in doing so. and that's also true. and he also pointed out that russia has all the leverage all the cards and negotiations. he pointed that out because russia has already taken so much of ukraine's territory. so obviously trump

is informed enough between that and the statements we've got from higgs of the trump administration is now aware of what a weak card they have. this statement by kellogg's about bleeding russia about the concessions that russia should make. being to break their alliances with china, iran and north korea are as fantastic all as much of a fancy. so the lamb scenario as it is for the europeans to believe that they can still win those conflict. they're both living and in fantasy re out. all it is right. the russia understands that they can't trust the west, including trump any further than they can throw them. and if they did trust drop these gone in 4 years, they're not thinking and in us selection cycles, they're thinking for the long term. i think what's actually likely the big rupture in geo politics,

the big split that's likely to occur is not the special relationship between russia and china, or between russia and the ron. but the special relationship between the united states and europe, that okay, and that's exactly what we're going to talk about in the 2nd part of the program. i absolutely agree in charge of zalinski is name is popped up here. um, a lot of feet are being played out here and i, it's quite hilarious watching a peak zalinski again on, on twitter. most people there don't even have a clue what they're talking about. but i mean, this is also kind of a diversion because it's, but instead of focusing on, they were military realities that the west is brought ukraine to with ukraine volunteering for this ridiculous dead we exercise and now it's a battle of personalities. this is exactly the kabuki theater. the west always plays about the guy in the white house like guy in the black,

which is completely divorced from geo politics. george? no, that's right. any that is going to is, are you using that the media or own blow? they're all singing from the same him shape, but just we kind of possibly have electron snow elections and no possibility of elections in ukraine out of the question as a war on no election zone, x a. but they seem to forget that they were elections in iraq during the war. there were elections in afghanistan during why didn't you may not think that i have from the united states had an election or 1964. that's exactly, it is like the book sounds did not mean that you know, people who are with along with manner is out that i'm having new mobile x is during the war years. so people didn't have any problems. but it's amazing how everyone has this. uh, you know, the, everyone's thinks on the same. she gives you guys a talking point and then every little bit, we're going to repeat that just like this. uh, let's pull that was coming. came up on some uh, the events that you that so i'm scared, enjoys 57 percent approval and then the you buy us

a id. thank you george. exactly. if he ships to the 57 percent, what political liter anywhere he enjoys a 57 percent approval. well, georgie, if he did have $57.00 per se, why doesn't do you have elections? in fact, but yeah, so, and so yeah, they're always, even though they're coming up with all of this, but it's not going to be easy to oust um the landscape because i don't know who exactly would replace the landscape. i don't know. even the people who are being talked about as realistic, um, uh, see goes, would be in a way, any better or, i mean the illusion is obviously the one was being talked about, but i don't know the, the money i have time this block of the program but who does have legitimacy, that is the question here, and that is something they're going to have to grapple with gentlemen. i'm going to jump in here. we're going to go to a short break and that's about your break. we'll continue our discussion and somebody on the stay with our to the

stuff sort of michelle for the process such as the she'll pull it the should the get our daughter should do this vehicle, is it the economic model? have us define good morning. it's different. this time, next time and see if it's doesn't figured that's about us doing it next august, even though is the name of the old server. it's

a compliant them doing each photos of developing bio chemical weapons inside. you also guys get to watch the news move. i'm assuming should you know where's on cheaper to use? the white glove service, the customer, but he's because of his center. she said that the welcome act across that bull horns and peter, the belts remind you, were discussing some real news. mark, let's go back to you here in moscow. you already hinted in the 1st part of the program getting a little bit ahead of ourselves. but what special relationships are at stake right here, and i think you're absolutely right. it's the, the transatlantic one. but i have a long enough memory that, you know,

it's been tested every once in a while. and you know that a lot of noise, you know, and not much heat is generated. obviously this is something of a different magnitude. but because the europeans, the u. k. have um, you know, the base themselves so very much they have very few resources to resist. okay. the only, the only real weapon of resistance they have this rhetorical is look at it, it's social media. but other than that, there is not much there. and you know what gentlemen, they're just gonna fall in line because they have no other alternative. mark the. yeah, i think the, the big question right, we seen where the trump chaos bomb is going off. it's going off in washington dc against the deb state and it's going off on the trans atlantic relationship right at the land. this is my work, or you could more specifically say natal, although it's not restricted to just the institution of nato and trump

not only doesn't have any interest in europe. he has contempt for europe for european leaders. he is obviously focusing his foreign policy vision on coming to terms whatever those terms might be, with what he sees as the other 2 great powers, russia and china, notice the europe, the e. u is not one of those great powers. therefore they don't really matter. and the europeans have, obviously, the current crop anyway, have become a colonized by the idea of previously us exceptionalism. now, western exceptionalism to an even greater degree than the united states. now, at least with the new administration, they believe that they are morally structurally and societally superior to everyone else on the planet, including the united states right now. but for trump,

it's more then i think a foreign policy decision, although i think that's obviously part of it. but it's also personal. trump feeds v e u liberal technocratic a lead. he hates all these e u leaders that came out supporting biden and harris openly storm are sending operatives to campaign for errors. all this talk about trump proving their conflict, the ukraine. he despises them. he also despises zelinski and the key of regime in gen role because they were instrumental the involved in the whole russia gate hugs and peach min attempt against them, the steel dossier, all of this stuff. he won some payback. i think that trump much like he wrecked obama's j c p o way with the ron is set on the racking the

ukraine conflict. biden's, you could argue there argue cigna. so that's why that's why that's why i said in my introduction, george, i mean, at least a in, in this regard. it is, it's deeply, deeply personal with, with, from p is settling account. so because is mark pointed out to russia gay to the 1st and peach meant all had everything to do with ukraine and the same cast of characters are there. um trump is in no mood to reward these people. okay. at all is as a matter of fact, it was a he wants to show that he was the victim. all. this is really interesting. how may i get his adopted a victimization profile with it. but, and that's a program for an ideal for a different program. but it is personal for him. george, it is bus of old. and the question live really? um, get it from years ago. the as days trump has been a nato skeptic. however, you know, you know, again, those always a little older generation will remember. that'd be so many of these trends that

land take risks over the years. from the 1950s, with john foster dollars, agonizing reappraisal. the idea is 6 days old to talk about you cleared the coupling. when you know the americans longer to sacrifice washington for, do so the fund and then we, they get the 7 days. you know, the americans aren't paying attention to as security and we and then we haven't read them. and every time, every time the europeans, us, i don't want to ride. well maybe we showed them think about a european security and defense that the mission of maybe europeans should take more interest and concern about us. a good, the american does have come down like a ton of bricks, the, how data you talk about any kind of separation from the to you know, map, lenovo, bryce fame is 3 d's. no decoupling, no duplication, no discrimination. and trump himself, in 2018 when my chrome started mumbling about, well, maybe to your been should do morgan on the day you take care of this?

a care of it is a don't you even death? think about that. we americans, we came to your rescue. you know, 1st, well, we'll look into your skin. the 2nd level, you know, they, we, we won the cold war how the day you think about separating from us. so i don't think it's going to happen. i think your of is very, very useful for america, that it's a way that america projects its power in the world. it's how it gets to be a global power and bullets everyone around what he wants from your of however, is to focus on your up to me in your room so that the americans can, can concentrate on china. so it's really kind of a division of labor and so the europeans then all going to because they don't want to step up, you know, they have to give up the 6 week vacations, a universal health scare. uh, you know, guaranteed incomes that's very, very comfortable lives that you were being to enjoy. so they're not going to do anything you know, to stop, you know, despite all the top, they're not going to do anything about their own security. so i just think whichever way this ukraine debacle resolves itself,

i don't think there's going to be a split, but the american you're, it's, it's very interesting mark because there was a bentley with the advent of the 1st trump administration. the 2 percent of g d, p spending on defense was a the new benchmark. now he wants to up the ante to 5 percent, which is extremely unlikely and, and probably deputy bit detrimental. but i mean my, my inclination about his always been the drums and people around him that i agree with them. say, if russia, if is such a threat to you, then why don't you spend 5 percent? and then they're going to come to the realization. well, maybe they're not that big of a threat, and i mean, i think he's forcing them to make that decision. i tend to agree with george the, there's a lot of people that are really excited to the cheer leading the end of nato. and i'd like to see the end of nato, but i don't see it happening any time soon. mark, i think it depends. i think every thing is on the table now,

right. i've had to do some serious assessment here. and a lot of it depends on what happens even personally between trump and european leaders. if they're smart and roll over and show their bellies to trump, right. he was still won't have any respect for them. but you know, they might be able to last through the next 4 years. if they do what zelinski has done over the past week, when openly challenging and salt him back, then anything is really on the table as i think it's more important. what happens after trump? does ged vans succeed him then he can carry on? if not, then the us can go right back to the role that they had with your you know, 4 years before. so there's a lot still on the table. but i think another important thing with all of this is that all of these last 8 years of, of a liberal attempt,

both in the united states and the intelligence community and in europe and the media to try to use the issue of russia are poor. the artist of trump has always had a degree of respect for poor and right from the beginning, as a strong leader. but they tried to paint him as the puppet of poor and right. they tried to paint him as a trader, as, as, as, as just an instrument as an author or carry on like they call boot. and, and i think all of that has blown back in a big way all about russia gave attempt to slurred trump has actually pushed trump into a bracing russia in a way that he might not have before. and so i think that in trying to, to the, legitimize trump with russia gate, they have created a trump monster of their own accord. what do you think about that judge?

because a lot that imo, uh, as a avid viewer, a breakthrough rachael mad out should that she's back on the rush of rush. no rush of horse right now. and i find it very quick odd because it didn't really be a garden or any dividends for those people, but that they really don't have much left. i mean, they have zalinski as their liberal hero. there's a lot of people that still walk around with masks. i mean, cobra was one of their sacred cows as well. so it's not gonna be, it's not giving them dividends. maybe you're both right. doing that there is going to try to outright trump. i don't know george, when he gave how strongly david is. i mean they did in 2018. they. they won the mid terms. they impeach him, they had mala investigation, and that weakened trump is low question. the 1st um, of trunk was a failure and it was a failure in large. but because of russia gave,

he was thrown off balance. he couldn't really get his bearings. he pursued a very and 2 russian bubbles, including sending lisa weaponry to ukraine. so it didn't deliver something. it doesn't. what do you want them to do? of course it didn't destroy a truck, which is what they were hoping for. but now, you know, all these years later i, i don't think it's going to achieve of very much. but i think it's gonna live mark is right. clearly, trump is now angry and is between the policy that he might not up to see what had it not been for russia good. we'll also see what happens. generally, when you or up is under the control of the gum, sent the left liberals relations with the united states a fault. and so even these policies may not change that much. you get so center, right? people in power in your room they really shows will improve not for as of the games in germany. and we have john, so shaw. and so i think it's going to be replaced by matt sounds those months is

even more focused on russia then. um schultz is, but i suspect he'll be able to get on trump's wavelength more than show. so as i mean it's, it's good trip to trump just kind of get and understand and kind of talk to people like charles and style. my and my crowds go up with somebody like muds, the, you know, the kind of going back to the days of hell would cold grade. he's a christian democrats, he's a conservative, and it will be some kind of communication. so it's not necessarily the question on, on russia is just, if you will have a way of communicating with him that he, that he didn't have with the shoals and doesn't have with micro installment. well, the finish off, gentleman, i hope you hope it's the, i mean try to everything with, from his personal but um security infrastructure is about far more important things . the, the european security architecture is in,

in disrepair. it's in tatters and i don't know, but we're going to move any closer to fixing it. um, fixing us right in the rush relations is one small step, so we'll see. it's all the time we have gentlemen, when i think my guess in budapest, in here in mosque. and of course i want to thank our viewers for watching us here at our d. so you next time, remember across up rules, the, [000:00:00;00]

the, the award didn't need to happen. it was provoked, it doesn't necessarily mean it was provoked by the russians. better late than never . 3 years after russia launched its military operation, and ukraine, washington admits that moscow's hand was forced impulse. go ahead, i'm ready to leave my position and i'm ready to do. it's an exchange for ukraine's membership and nato bought them as a once the claims hell quit. if only that allows ukraine to join the us blood block, something the white house has fall, washington wants to see elections and financial compensation from c s one to it's the 1st time in decades. but tanks of enter judea and samaria. this means