as wait days week since he was, you know, he rates and warning of world war 3 if a piece cannot be found. but i think that's it. trump does not freak out. and several people died and the russian threat to you. right. and which of course does exist as an existential threats to the united states, unless the united states goes to war with russia. but then again, of course, of present bite and every european may so lead to send repeatedly that they would not comfortable with russia. so in taking that off the table um, you know, the trump is not actually sacrificed anything of the, the other aspect of course is there's a great many people in the american establishment and within the trump administration. things that is really trying to that is the existential threat to america. and that's, that too is greatly exaggerated about um,

what is obviously true is the trying. there is a vastly knowledge of richer and more powerful states and therefore relatively new potential rifles. the lusher is so from a purely realist point of view, it makes like some sense to try to reduce tension with russia and concentrate on china. and the trump administration has basically been, you know, suggesting this is from nixon to china. moment in reverse, that trump is, is going to, in a sense, go to moscow or meet with with pollution and cruel boots and away from the russian relationship with china. yeah, i do want to get back to ukraine, but china, very quick. actually. 2 of seemingly be much colder on the plan to reduce nuclear stockpile is where 50 percent have. do you think anyone in the trumpet ministration quite understands what's been happening these last few years and that some

nickelodeon, cleaving of badging and most go just isn't on the cards because of the sanctions that were imposed? i mean, do they understand that that's over i think i for quite a long drive and there is this very foolish tool cuz you know, crazy. a breach between rusher and showing no turning roster, in some sense into a, you know, arriving with china. that's not going to happen at the same time, but a lot of russians are worried about russian becoming too dependent on trying to match. as you know, one of the things that we have to offer to rusher as an incentive to make peace and ukraine and reduce its dom honesty, right? the fact that you're not as long as a western sanctions and your pin refusal to buy russian energy remains, you know, china or isn't

a buyer's market as far as russian energy is concerned. and therefore, you know, has the ability to dictate the price and, you know, the, the price, the price is being set by the chinese, i'm not favorable to russia. so, you know, you, i think the, there is the terms of what, on the other hand of groups, the close, the very close russian chinese relationship does. um, you know, bring a lot of benefits to the chinese in terms of energy security type, military technology, all those things. so, you know, i think there is the ability not to create a breach between rusher and china, but to you know, to crazes, suicide and extra degree of distance between them. yeah, the zoom connections a bit off to washington. i don't know what the us department of government efficiency affecting zoom. what do you think then headed this european,

extraordinary summit of why on earth, the europeans or an elite group pro, run new york up at the moment. what, why they didn't have a plan b, a in case this kind of administration. i was ever to take office in the united states that wanted to make peace wanted to tool and have some kind. they don't seem to have any plan be. i mean, you mentioned the energy actually your of has been buying on the gray market. begin to cheat from the who knows. maybe even more than china. we don't know. i mean, the sub, the cost of the war on ukraine is it was at the bretton in front of germany, a paying for the war on new. great, now you play as some of the policies are gonna go to well, i think the point is that for many, many decades from the united security and strategy point to view your pin country simply outsourced the brains to washington. and, you know,

not to one party will be out of it to the bipartisan us establishment. i know that bite pauses and establishment just ceasing to exist fluid. oh, sorry, but you know, you worked at some of the highest levels of you certainly within the scholarly framework in, in britain and in europe as well as a, you know, within this bipartisanship how, how, i mean, you say that just to have picked up. they've just outsource their brains to the circle, deep state. i mean, why didn't they read your books? they just know like you are now. then it printed off base. it is very old. and even in particular, i think i was, it doesn't surprise me much in germany because all of this comes out of post from the 2nd will move. and it doesn't surprise me so much in person, because for grace extent, the, or patricia stablish much as most with the american bar. and of course,

the subordinate wrote, it was somewhat surprised me. the french have done this to such an extent. so, you know, they just were not thinking, they spent the unity, the 1st trump administration, basically just waiting and praying. so democrats to came to come back, they came back, they would say the delights here, that they subordinate themselves completely to biden's agenda and ukraine on until you know, months, in some cases, literally weeks before the last election. many of them refused to believe that trump could be re elected and they was so frank and of that because of course they, they don't want to think seriously about, you know, having to defend themselves, draw up plans for them and security. they're just not used to it. and i mean to be fab of coal, some as well. 2 things we won, as we saw with the stallman speech and bottom, and this is going to take

a lot more money that they don't have. they didn't want to think about that this is, you know, going to be very, very painful. but the 2nd thing is, of course, that for a whole set of reasons. they've trapped themselves with rhetoric against russia, with the even a grotesquely overblown language about russian genocide. russians threats to your route, you know, etc, etc. and you know, it's easy enough that from the to reverse that because you know, he wasn't in power. it will be easy. i think in the couple of years if we see a pending documents in front of for the pendant government to reverse it. but it's quite difficult to know for governments which are being screaming and talk with that voices. you know about how, you know, you train must, when we must back ukraine for as long as takes of full then, you know, basically to tell them on the dime. i'm change that to language,

which sooner or later they're going to have to do. but it's, it is difficult, except if you have an elite that is so out of touch with your own population, all easily does horribly unpopular, including stories only just been elected in, in britain. and you have no real education and diplomacy. i don't know, none of the norms of diplomacy built up over hundreds of years in the in western europe a being applied whatsoever. it makes it dangerous for most good, doesn't it? because as the united states may seek its own, deals with the russia. how to deal with the idea with m, i 6 will be there, the, you know, off to any piece agreement. as for the nazis of the east, of you, great new to under basic lensky and will be against any uh thing that zalinski is forced design. how can they be trusted because the drones is still there and frankly, trump said the, you know, a few days ago weapons would still be flowing in just not more so and, uh,

but we do know that the drum, the drum and johns low, well, he wants to supply towards me. so i was easy to down in fans, but he's expanding the war. difficult for me most go is what it is. and you know, there is so much talk in the west of how we comp trust the russians. and that's why, you know, the ukraine must have absolute guarantees and so forth. but the point is, of course, that the russians has at least equally good reason not to trust us. given the number of agreements that the west is broken up. but also of course, um, you know, as a russian expert said to me recently, unit know, agreement made with us can be trusted beyond 4 years because of elections. and you know, another policy comes in and simply tags everything up. but do you kind of the, the or pins would be insane to the, you know, on the mine a piece process,

a new crane because that would infuriate trump and it really might please the europeans like trumps. as they all are undermining them. print jumps as they are undermining the base agreement and the coolest front and the britain have you in security council vito's. so the united states rush here in china conte team up and get a resolution to prevent these west and european powers that i call them the european rump of your asia from acting some sort of madman strategy. do they not realize russia has the largest number of nuclear weapons and that they would be against policy in washington, moscow, and aging? i'm not sure that they do, frankly. um, i've been opposed by the lack of serious strategic thoughts in europe. i'm. but as i say they're just not used to is i, you know, mean the bushes, tabs and basically so many years. and i was being used to getting its orders from washington, and in a sense it is still

a bad and the orders of the last us administration. and when i, it, it seems still fully taking account of the fact that, you know, you have a very different us administration. i mean, my theory is that this is so deeply, i mean, it was kind of genetic the imbedded in your pin for an insecurity establishment. like i would spend the next 4 years basically treading water. well, praying that the democrats come back in 2028 a box. you know, the bodies give them the general situation, an extremely stupid policy to follow a professor, leave it on a copy of that. well, if i'm the director of the i is your program at the quincy is if you 1st month's it was take off after this, break the

the lordship last but know that there was a mark the shift of the drug more you. but i'm still the new minus 32 for me. i even though it shows the lease of the west coast, but it was to retail to to, to the yeah, well water is something source with me. my loan number is the number one, no printing one. i still could read itself, so hold on the most of the scholars with serious, why do you to them for the, for you the or the shift minus the credit which is or was they still little control,

the others that it's the sort of getting choked with us, of course, the april 10th sort of the hello and welcome to the cross stuff full born here we discussed the wheel and the the welcome back to going undergrad. i'm still here with the director of the razor program at the quincy institute for responsible statecraft professor and it's all leaving a present even at the end of the one you are talking about the possibility of european leads, just treading water and waiting for trump to leave the office, do you think one thing that might concentrate their minds apart from their own electorates? of course, because they will be election, you must in your

a. but i'll give the may change policy is if trump starts to withdrawal us basis, say from germany which is now seems to be being discussed in the united states circles. he, he only gave a few minutes as far as i understand it, to the publish present dude, when he visited washington, all the talk is of moving these tens of thousands of american troops to, to poland. do you think that will make these european leaders understand? i don't cause a lot of bases in britain as well. i do with it. they're going to be moved as well . that will kind of make them realize that arms control the tool. and these are the most important issues of uh, uh, lives off times right now. well, i think, and i mean if trent these trips from germany component that we don't have any effect, because this will actually indicate an increase on us commitment to defend eastern europe. however,

it could well be that the trump administration will make this proposal in order then to be able to bulk and this away with russia as possible, wider owns limitation agreement, as you know, out of the whole ukraine piece process. we'll have to see the thing is that some a bit on the one hand, i don't think that there's any chance whatsoever the, the trunk ministration will leave native old will withdrawal the main us basis for your because you know, amongst other things around starting that full space in, in germany, in naples, naval base in the mediterranean are very important to projecting american power in the mix of, sorry to interrupt the if the talks in riyadh inside of your area. which we know privy to happened to mention that as a overarching security architecture discussion outside of ukraine on palestine. you

think because the nuclear weapons i understand are in run stand right at targeting run or yep. um, i just know that, but i mean uh what i'm sure is that, you know, they use at least really government and these riley lobby would have hysterics. it's based on that. america was actually withdrawing from europe. and even while the trunk is not going to listen much to european governments, he is going to listen. one seems to and that's on yahoo. up and then you know, there, there is the in ask for databases and intelligence gathering based and in britain. but on the other hand, of course, i mean so a fearful all the europeans and the germans. and of course the polls and in particular about any us with the tool that's it would only

take a raw the limits, hit us withdrawal threats of, of withdrawal. you know, testing done wrong starting, but you know, which one, some of us troops basically throw a bucket of cold war for them and tell them, look, you better, listen, when we tell you that, you know, we, we want to peace settlement with russia. so i think that could well be the the approach or the trump administration. they also turned in a mood to send some pretty stuff messages to you or yeah, know that uh, j. d balances message at the munich forum and elsewhere about the lack of free speech in western europe seem to do much them and me. so the remaining police and judges grew from her and remain is electra, which has been referred to again, i think by j. b. j d, but you don't have to shed values if you're jailing people, you don't have shared values if you can. single reactions because you don't like the result that happened in your romania, but i suppose they'll get the message. these european relates that the,

they better take the old as just as they took the orders of blinking and but otherwise they're in big, much bigger trouble than even would have been wielded. uh, how would it be wielded by them and blink i think so. i mean, if you look at the new john and shawn solicitors, mallets, i'm the key. what from black rock for most of his career unit phones atlanta system is, is, you know, they extend to his bones. and so i strongly suspect that all through his talk of your pin independence in the end he will defer to, to washington. the other thing, of course, is that new advances remarks have been portrayed as america against your, you know, in america cutting itself off from your husband. fence is kind of tool of what firms is trying to do is position himself as the leader of a new international, conservative movement,

including the ones like the pen in fronts. and gonna ask the in germany, that's very different from trump who doesn't, who genuine is not give a damn about ideology or europe or many other things. but this wasn't violence against your this was event citing with this new wing of european politics against the old europe in which anyways, if we did cents, which anyways in the us. and it's because of the sell sanctioning of the 3 is since $20.00 to $82.00. i mean these, these are all yesterday's men in effect as incredibly unpopulated, unpopular. they zip a huge the divided populations between rich and poor. and then we gather comments like method, fredrickson for denmark, thing kind of piece is more dangerous than war. i mean, a window hear about them. eventually realizing they have to follow washington's orders. but that as, and what is being site, this isn't what it's been sounding like. for the past the days since the munich

security summit, again in a game except for macro in washington looking like, uh, uh, like his yeah, poppy dog. i mean they, they keep saying this is dangerous, trump is wrong. the americans are wrong. and what was the germans talking about? some is what the americans will get against nature. was the germans seeming to suggest in hand of nato and going load a pariah continental wisdom, confident. because the crazy thing about that is that if you really, i'm sure of the americans, few and future american support that should be on those it's, you know, to, to end the war in ukraine and reduce tension with russia. and you know, i have reminded some danish tells us that russia, no russian government, as far as i know in the whole of russian history. leslie bruton has ever claimed or

threatened a single inch of danish territory mange. i'm where as of course, the us administration has just the only exactly to monday, but i always say suggestions very strongly, but then most of my times over a 100 as part 840000 square miles of danish territory. most of them, in fact so, well, i mean it's not really denmark, but still, but it's just very old. i mean, you know what it is done, but we're going to allow that trump the story to but it is getting the right to bring it to his birth. i mean, you know, western academics, so i like to, to preston in a patronize in fashion about pos dependency of russia. you know, it's tied towards history and pos dependency of china and wherever. but you could hardly find a more path, dependent lot of them. uh, you know, the,

the pin for it and security of the, to the moment they, they put themselves on a railway track of facility to russia and they seem incapable of getting off it. i mean, they will eventually, but i'm my god, it's taking a long time because they, when it'll take generations. and of course, it's not just the leads. some polls show that a convincing numbers of population of western europe is a realm of your major. i do believe all the propaganda and so on and see russia as the biggest threat to their existence. not realizing that the reason defense expenditure was lower was not because since the 1991 wasn't because of the united states of paying for it, it was because they brush or pose no threat to the as well. exactly. i mean, one of the crazy things is, i mean, i suppose this is also this, the sites my age. but nobody seems to remember gorbachev will go up

the mania advice him and his idea of a common european home. um, you know, whichever, whichever one was of july sure, you guys will close in his legs. he is going to trust. i mean he strangely criticized pollutant, but he also bitterly condemn the west, so betrayed that vision and rightly i think. but of course, when it comes to your pin publics, well, what can you expect the look of person? i mean, it's the bbc. i'm the times. i'm the daily teller growth. and even the gone to a unit. i'm the magazines, all in say exactly the same thing and the read basically guessing that q from government funded think turning, switch all unanimous on the same subject. you know, i mean, you, you come expect corporate people to know any better than they all. and that's the thing. so we talk about russian misinformation, uh,

bought by different parts of tools. but even if you look at britain today, i'm in the admin in a sense, there is no public debate. there is no public serious public discussion about british interests versus priorities international realities. miller tre, reality is i'm gonna really authoritarian regimes would have to work very, very hard to create the kind of, you know, absolute media and intellectual consensus that you see in the, in britain and in spanish during this the are who i have the guts to say the things, those are lead stone, one are detained in mike on your end and you're going to imprison of and r t is bad . and of course the fox news is banned from broke cost. effectively. there's enough

comb agency that prevents view points and presumably some scholars press tv from a bone, china, and they just don't allow they use the rumble in front is banned. do you think we'll ever see a free press again in western europe as possible? what's been going on as in uh, q have and moscow when i hope so, but of course the fear is, and i mean, i think you've seen this in america that, you know, let's face it is the democratic policy and it's media around the lights. you know, winton for a, you know, as, as it turned out, almost totally on based unit campaign of misinformation against trump is a russian agent in the process of calls. all of this will come out of the invention material or an adult in totally, you know,

on based material. and this goes manipulation, the us secret services. well now you see of course, the trunk of ministration hitting back during the same you know, the same. but if you like, even worse, i mean, this is my fear of quotes that the, the present order will collapse. but you will see a new from, you know, the more radical rights in europe. and which will then try to impose its own and forced consensus, which will be different, but not necessarily better. just finally got had a buzz is extraordinary. so i'm it. so what, it'll just be a bunch of days any, it will be a real move don't seem to understand the new realities. what the, what does it say about scholars, interior politics and international relations, scholarship and international relations in diplomacy, in these western european capitals. will it take

a generation to get people to understand the group think is the enemy of being a scholar? well, i have to say, i mean for me, this is a deeply depressing because i was as you know, which i missed and on a pulled by what's happened to westman john, listen and an academic terms on the combination of the international relations, the textbook and as far as i can see, i are, as an academic subject has, has become totally useless. it's contributed nothing new value in policy terms to the formulation of policy. the historians are very good at discussing the immensely complex reasons for the origins of the 1st. well, i'm, you know, jen, jen generally agreeing that they went complex on their own full to him, but she wasn't on one side with the other, but have withdrawn was totally from any attempt to suggest that this might have

lessons for the present to lessons of i do know the self righteousness of the present and the area start is um for the time. but uh so yeah, well i'm in a moody dispatch. maybe i hope that will correct itself professor rather to leave and thank you. that's it for the show. you, some, it's on ukraine is scheduled for thursday. we'll be back with a brand new episode on saturday. and you'll then keep in touch wireless social media. if it's not census bureau country and what channel going on, you're going to be on the com to let you know that as a going undergrads is either the,

the russian states never as tight as i'm one of the most sense community best. most all sense of the, in the system must be the one else calls question about this, even though we will then in the european union, the kremlin mission, the state on russia cruising and supports the r t spoke neck team and our video agency, roughly all the band on youtube, the 7th. and steve and twist, which is the

welcome across stock board horns. were all things are considered on peter lavelle. ukraine. slower president. zelinski went to washington design a deal. instead, he laid an egg and that's putting it mildly is the damage repairable. is peace still on the agenda? to discuss these issues and more, i'm joined by my guess, george samuel in budapest. he's a pod cast with the goggle, which can be found on youtube and locals. and here in moscow, we crossed to mark's level that he's an international relations and security analyst. right. gentleman cross talk rules and effect. that means you can jump any time you want. and i always appreciate it. all right, let's take it off with mark in moscow. here.