either for an extraordinary summit to double down on the proxy war and rush through your brain. fresh from forwarding trips to washington, france has been a good macro and the u. k. stop. i went to violate the russian red lines and sent soldiers to die against russia. after any trump row could agreement and economically suicide, while european rumble the razor. now, if he is isolated from the usa, that boats with russia and china at the united nations, joining me again from washington, dc, if profess rather to leave and director of the razor program at the quincy institute for responsible statecraft. i thank you so much for present even for coming back on with the things moving so quickly relatively, can we just establish, i mean, do you think the trump administration believes that the bible proxy war, the vision narrative on taking office signifies some sort of a existential threat to the united states, trump, again in a game in recent to wait days, weeks since he was, you know, he rated warning of world war 3. if a piece cannot be found,

i think that's it. trump does not trigger and separately people don't. the russian threat to you pray, which of course does exist as an existential threats to the united states unless the united states goes to war with russia. but then again, of course, of present bite and every european may so lead to send repeatedly that they would not comfortable with russia. so in taking that off the table um, you know, the trump is not actually sacrificed anything of the, the other aspect of course is there's a great many people in the american establishment and within the trump administration. things such as is really trying to that is the existential threat to american enough. that to is greatly exaggerated about um, what is quite obviously true is that china is a vastly larger,

richer and more powerful state. and therefore relatively new potential rifles the rusher is. so from a purely real is point of view, it makes like some sense to trying to reduce tension with russia and concentrate on china. and the trump administration has basically been, you know, suggesting this is trumps nixon to china. moment in reverse, that trump is, is going to, in a sense, go to moscow or meet with pollution and cruel brewton away from the russian relationship with china. or. yeah, i do want to get back to ukraine, but china, very quick. actually 2 of seemingly be much colder on the plan to reduce nuclear stockpile is by 50 percent. have, do you think anyone in the trump administration quite understands what's been happening these last few years and that some nickelodeon, cleaving of badging and most coaches isn't on the cards because of the sanctions

that we're yeah imposed. i mean, do they understand that that's over i think quite a lot of new drugs and there is this very foolish tool cause you know, crazy. a breach between rusher and charlie know, turning roster in some sense into a, you know, arriving with china. that's not going to happen at the same time, but a lot of russians are worried about russian becoming too dependent on china vouchers . you know, one of the things that we have to offer to rusher as an incentive to make peace and ukraine and reduce its dom honesty, right? the fact that, you know, as long as western sanctions and european refusal to buy russian energy remains, you know, china or isn't a buyer's market as far as russian energy is concerned. and therefore, you know,

has the ability to dictate the price and, you know, the, the price, the price is being set by the chinese, i'm not favorable to russia. so, you know, you, i think the, there is the terms. what on the other hand of groups, the close, the very close russian chinese relationship does. um, you know, bring a lot of benefits to the chinese in terms of energy security type, military technology, other things. so the unit there is the ability not to create a breach between rusher and china, but so you know, to create some this was an extra degree of distance between them. yeah, the zoom connections a bit off the washington. i don't know what the us department of government efficiency affecting zoom. what do you think then headed this european, extraordinary summit of why on earth,

the europeans or an elite group pro, run their your up at the moment. what, why they didn't have a plan b, a in case bisk calling the administration was ever to take office in the united states. that wanted to make peace, wanted the tool and to some kind. they don't seem to have any plan be, i mean, you mentioned the energy actually your been buying on the grandma get the energy from the who knows. maybe even more than china. we don't know. i mean, the sub, the cost of the war on ukraine is it was at the britain in front of germany are paying for the war on new grand. now you play as some of the policies are gonna go to well, i think the point is that for many, many decades from the united security and strategy point of view, european countries simply outsourced the brains to washington. and, you know, not to one party or the other, but to the bipartisan us establishment. it's not that binary pulse is an

establishment to ceasing to exist fluid. oh, sorry, but you know, you worked at some of the highest levels of you certainly within the scholarly framework in, in britain and in europe as well as a, you know, within this bipartisanship how, how, i mean, you say that just to have picked up. they've just outsource their brains to the so called the state. i mean, why didn't they read your books? they just know like you are now. then it prints out awesome based. um, it is very old and, you know, particular i think what it doesn't surprise me much in germany because only this comes out of post from the 2nd world war. and it doesn't surprise me so much in britain because for grace extent, the, the pressures establishment as most with the american one. and of course, the subordinate wrote, it was somewhat surprised me. the french have done this to such an extent. so,

you know, they just were not thinking, they spent the unity, the 1st trump administration, basically just waiting and praying for the democrats to came to come back. they came back, they was so delights here, that they subordinate themselves completely to buttons, gender and ukraine. on until you know, months, in some cases, literally weeks before the last election, many of them refused to believe that trump could be re elected. and they was so frank and of that because of course they, they don't want to think seriously about, you know, having to defend themselves, draw up plans for them and security, they're just not used to it. and i mean to be fab of coal, some as well, 2 things we won, as we saw with the stallman speech empowerment. this is going to take a lot more money that they don't have. they didn't want to think about that this is,

you know, going to be very, very painful. but the 2nd thing is, of course, that for whole sets of reasons. they've trump themselves with rhetoric against russia, with the even a grotesquely overblown language about russian genocide. russians, threats to europe, united, cetera, etc. and, you know, it's easy enough from the to reverse that because you know, he wasn't in power. it will be easy, i think, in a couple of years, if we see a dependent government in france for dependent government to reverse it. but it's quite difficult to know for governments which would be in screaming and talk with that voices. you know about how, you know, you train must, when are we must back ukraine for as long as it takes of full then, you know, basically to turn on a dime and change that to language, which sooner or later they're going to have to do. but it's, it is difficult,

except if you have an elite that is so out of touch with your own population, all these lead is horribly unpopular including style immersion only just been elected in, in britain. and you have no real education in diplomacy. i don't know, none of the norms of diplomacy built up over hundreds of years in the, in west and your uh, being applied whatsoever. it makes it dangerous for most good, doesn't it? because as the united states may seek its own, deals with the russia. how to deal with the i don't know whether my 6 will be there, but i, you know, off to any disagreement as for the nazis of the east of you. great. and you doing your basic lensky, and will be against any uh thing that zalinski is forced design. how can they be trusted? because the drones are still there, and frankly, trump said, you know, in a few days ago, weapons would still be flowing in just not more so and, but we do know that the drum new drum and johns low, well, he wants to supply

a tours me so i was easy to shoot down in fans, but he's expanding the war difficult for me. months ago is what it is. and, you know, there was so much talk in the west of how we comp, trust the russians, and that's why you know, the ukraine must have absolute guarantees and so forth. but the point is, of course, that the russians have at least equally good reason not to trust us. given the number of agreements that the west is broken. but also of course, um, you know, as a russian expert said to me recently, unit know, agreement made with us can be trusted beyond 4 years because of elections. and you know, another policy comes in and simply tags everything up. but do you kind of the, the or pins would be insane to the, you know, on the mine a piece process, a new crane because that would infuriate trump and it really might please the

europeans like trumps. as they all are undermining them. jumps as they are undermining the base agreement and the coolest front and the britain have you in security council vito's. so the united states rush here in china conte team up and get a resolution to prevent these west and european powers that i call them the european rump of your asia from acting some sort of madman strategy. do they not realize russia has the largest number of nuclear weapons and that they would be against policy in washington, moscow, and aging? i'm not sure that they do, frankly. um, i've been approved by the lack of serious strategic stuart in europe. i'm. but as i say, they're just not used to is i, you know, i mean the pressures establishment basically for many years now i was being used to getting its orders from washington, and in a sense it is still a bad and the orders of the last us administration, without it,

it seems still fully taking account of the fact that, you know, you have a very different us administration. i mean, my theory is that this is so deeply, i mean, it was kind of genetically imbedded in your pin for an insecurity establishment. then think of spend the next 4 years, basically treading water. um, well, praying that the democrats come back in 2028 a box. you know, the bodies give them the general situation, an extremely stupid policy to follow a professor, leave it off a copy of that. well, if i'm the director of the i is your program at the quincy is if you 1st month's it was take off after the spring, the 1941, the radical right wing was stone, shall be nice. ation seized power and foam, the independent state of croatia. hold on 3 in a sense, what's kind of

a problem with a still a system, a beast to be added to. one of the main targets was children. historical sources say the gosh, killed over 72000 children business it my god, they have done a roll of nose up that of course i see you for a breakdown of finance on one up front that be upset. then we cannot just go a b, c on that. and even the germans themselves were horrified by the interests of is committed by the stuff is less than of that. so there's a lot to bill. a couple mistakes theme is at least i'll talk to possibly it could be decided not to allow me to read. so i'm showing that the

the welcome back to going undergrad. i'm still here with the director of the raise your program with the quincy. and since you 1st went through the state grub prevention and that will leave in a present even at the end of the one you were talking about the possibility of europe and the leads just treading water and waiting for the jump to leave the office. do you think one thing that might concentrate their minds apart from their own electorates? of course, because they will be elections, you must in your but i'll give the may change policy is if trump starts to withdraw

us basis, say from germany, which is now seems to be being discussed in the united states circles. he, he only gave a few minutes as far as i understand it, to the publish present due to when he visited to washington. all the talk is of moving these tens of thousands of american troops to, to poland. do you think that will make these european leaders understand that i don't cause a lot of bases in britain as well. i just with it, they're going to be moved as well, but that will kind of make them realize that arms control the tool and these are the most important issues of a lives off times right now. well, i think, and i mean, if trent news troops from germany component it won't have any effect because this will actually indicate an increase of us commitment to defend eastern europe. however, it could well be that the trump administration will make this proposal in order

then to be able to bargain this away with russia as possible wind to arms and invitation agreement. as you know, out of the whole ukraine peace process, we'll have to see the thing is that some, i mean on the one hand, i don't think that there's any chance whatsoever the, the trunk ministration will leave native old will withdrawal the main us basis from your because, you know, amongst other things, ramstein, nashville space in, in germany, in naples, naval base and the mediterranean are very important to projecting american power in the mix up, sorry to interrupt the if the talks in riyadh inside the ravia, which we know privy to happened to mention that as a overarching security architecture discussion outside of ukraine and palestine. you think because the nuclear weapons i understand are in run stand right at

targeting, run to yep. i'm, i don't know that, but i mean, what i'm sure is that, you know, the use of these really, governments, and these really loyalty would have hysteric space. so that america was actually withdrawing from europe. and you know, while the trunk is not going to listen much to european governments, he is going to listen. one seems to mess on yahoo up and then you know, there, there is the absolute databases and intelligence gathering based and in britain. but on the other hand, of course, i mean so a fearful oh the europeans and the germans. and of course the polls and in particular about any us, it's true that it would only take a raw the limits, hit us withdrawal threats of, of withdrawal. you know,

not sizing down wrong starting, but, but you know, between some of us troops, basically for a bucket of cold war for them and tell them, look, you better, listen, when we tell you that, you know, we, we want to peace settlement with russia. so i think that could well be the the approach or the trump ministration. they also turned in a mood to send some pretty stuff messages to your to yeah, know that uh, j. d balances message at the munich forum and elsewhere about the lack of free speech in western europe seem to do much them and me. so i'm going to remain in police and judges school front router and remain is electra, which it has been referred to. again, i think by j b, j. d, but you don't have to shed values. if you're jailing people, you don't have shared values. if you can think of the actions because you don't like the result that happened in your romania, but i suppose they'll get the message. these european relates that the,

they better take the old is just as they took the old is blinking and but otherwise they were in big, much bigger trouble than even would have been wielded. uh, how would it be wielded by them and blink i think so. i mean, if you look at the new john and john solicitor's magnets look, he what some black rock for most of his career electronics atlanta system is, is, you know, based into his bones. and so i strongly suspect that all through his talk of your pin independence in the end he will defer to, to washington. the other thing, of course, is that advances remarks have been portrayed as america against your, you know, in america cutting itself off from your husband francis plan. the tools of what firms is trying to do is position himself as the leader of a new international conservative movement, including the ones like the pen in fronts. and gonna ask the in germany,

that's very different from trump who don't, who genuine is not give a damn about ideology or europe or many other things. but this wasn't violence against you or this was vance citing with this new wing of european politics against the old european, which anyways, if wouldn't center which anyways in the attendance because of the sales sanctioning of the 3 is since $20.00 to $82.00. i mean, these are all yesterday's men in effect as incredibly unpopulated, unpopular they live hugely divided populations between rich and poor. and then we get a comment like method fredrickson for denmark. thing kind of piece is more dangerous than war. i mean, a window hear about them, eventually realizing they have to follow washington's orders, but that as, and what is being site, this isn't what it's being sounding like for the past. the days since the munich

security summit, again in the game except for macro in washington looking like, uh, uh, like his yeah, puppy dog. i mean they, they keep saying this is dangerous, trump is wrong. the americans are wrong. and what was the germans talking about? some is what the americans will get against nature. it was the german seeming to suggest the hand of nato and going out alone, a pariah continental west. and consummate because the crazy thing about that see, is that if you really, i'm sure of the americans, few and future american simple, that should be a most, it's, you know, to, to end the war in ukraine and reduce tension with russia. and you know, i have reminded some danish times it is that russia and no russian government, as far as i know in the whole of russian history. leslie bruton has ever claimed or threatened a single inch of danish territory mange. i'm where as of course,

the us administration has just only exactly to monday, but for we say suggestions very strongly. but denmark my times over a 100 as 384-0000 square miles of danish territory. most of them wrote and in fact, so i mean it's not really denmark, but still, but it's just very old. i mean, you know what it is done, but we're going to allow that trump the story to but it is going to bring it to his birth, you know, but i mean, in a western academic, so i like to, to preston in a patronize in fashion about pos, dependency of russia. you know, it's tied to its history and pos dependency of china and wherever. but you could hardly find a more pulse dependent lot of them. uh, you know, the, the pin for it and security of the, to the moment they, they put themselves on

a railway track as halston to, to, to russia. and they seem incapable of getting upset. i mean, they will eventually, but i'm not going to, it's taking a long time because they, when it'll take generations. and of course, it's not just the leads. some polls show that a convincing numbers of population of western europe is realm of your raise. you do believe all the propaganda and so on and see russia as the biggest threat to their existence. not realizing that the reason defense expenditure was lower was not because since the 1991 wasn't because of the united states were paying for it, it was because they brush or pose no threat to the exactly. i mean, one of the crazy things is, i mean, i suppose this is also this, the sites my age. but nobody seems to remember gorbachev or gold, the mania advice him and his idea of

a common european home. um, you know, whichever, whichever one was of july, sorry about that. of course in his late he is going to trust. i mean he strangely criticized bruten. but he also bits of the come to the west, so betrayed that vision and run to the i think. but of course, when it comes to your pin publics, well, what can you expect the look person? i mean, it's the bbc am the times i'm the daily teller growth and even they've gone to a unit and the magazines all in say exactly the same thing. and the read, basically getting back to from government funded. think turns switch all unanimous on the same subject. you know, i mean, you come expecting 3 people to know any better than they all are and that's the thing. so we talk about russian misinformation about by different pulse of goals.

but even if you look at britain today, um, you know, they're in a sense, there is no public debate. there is no in public serious public discussion about precision trends versus priorities international realities, minute, tre, reality is none of it. you know, it's really authoritarian regimes would have to work very, very hard to create the kind of, you know, absolute media and intellectual consensus that you see in the, in britain and in fan is doing this the are who have the guts to say that the things those are lead, still one are detained in my country are and, and you are going to imprison of and r t is bad. and of course the fox news is banned from broke cost. effectively. there's enough comb agency that prevents view

points and presumably some scholars press t v from a bunch of and they just don't allow these. the rumble in front is banned. do you think we'll ever see a free press again in western europe as possible? what's been going on as in uh, q have, and most ago when i hope so, but of course the fear is, and i mean, i think you've seen this in america that, you know, let's face it is the democratic policy and it's media around the lights. you know, winton for a, you know, as, as it turned out, almost totally a on based unit campaign of misinformation against trump is a russian agent. you know, in the process of pools, all of this would come out of inventing material or adopting totally, you know,

on base material. and the school is manipulating the u. s. secret services. well, now you see, of course, the trump administration hitting back during the same, you know, the same, but if you like, even worse, i mean, this is my fear of quotes that the, the present order will collapse, but you will see a new from, you know, the more radically rights in europe and which will then try to impose its own and forced consensus, which will be different. but it's not necessarily better just finding that i had it those days. extraordinary summit. so what, it'll just be a bunch of days any. it's working and it's a real move. don't seem to understand the new realities. what the, what does it say about scholars, interior politics and international relations, scholarship and international relations in diplomacy in these western european capitals. will it take

a generation to get people to understand the group think is the enemy of being a scholar when i have to say, i mean, for me, this is a deeply depressing because i was, you know, which on best on a pulled by what's happened to westman john, listen and an academic terms. i'm a combination of the international relations, the textbook, and as far as i can see, i are as an academic subject has, has become totally useless. it's contributed nothing new value in policy terms to the formulation of policy. the historians are very good at discussing the immensely complex reasons for the origins of the 1st. well, i'm, you know, jen, jen generally agree in that. they went complex on the phone to room, but she wasn't on one side or the other. um, but have withdrawn, it was totally from any attempt to suggest that this might have lessons for the present to lessons of i do know the self righteousness of the present and the area

stopped is probably around that time. but uh so yeah, well i'm in a mood dispatch. maybe i hope that will corrupt itself professor rather to leave and thank you. that's it for the show you. some it's on ukraine is scheduled for thursday. we'll be back with a brand new episode on saturday until then keep in touch while we're on social media. if it's not sense, you know, country and what channel going on, you're going to be on the com to let you know that there's a going on the guns is either the the

the coalition of the war and gas b, u. k. on strong pick phase tall said to plans to put boots on the ground in ukraine or the missing. they can't do it without with us, which isn't exactly washing to get on board. i've asked every foreign minister i meet with. tell me your idea of how this turns out most don't have a plan. a few have said, well, let's give them another you are fighting a year from now a year later after another year of death, another year of destruction. the us president national security advisor apparently suggests it's time for the wednesday to synthesize then let someone else make peace as also the ukrainian lead his diplomatic disaster of a trip to washington. the saw him fix out such a wide.