they give me just to establish, i mean, do you think the trump administration believes that the bible proxy war that it inherited on taking office signifies some sort of a existential threat to the united states. trump, again, in a game in recent to wait days, weeks and see, because you know, your rates and warning of world war 3, if a piece cannot be found. but i think that's it. trump does not trickle. and separately, people don't. the russian threat to you, right? which of course, does exist as an existential threat to the united states unless the united states goes to war with russia. but then again, of course, of present bite and every european may so lead to send repeatedly that they would not comfortable with russia. so in taking that off the table um, you know, the trump is not actually sacrificed anything of the,

the other aspect of course is there's a great many people in the american establishment and within the trump administration. things which is really trying to that is the existential threat to america. enough. that too is greatly exaggerated. bought um, most is quite obviously true is the trying. there is a vastly knowledge of richer and more powerful states and therefore relatively new potential rifle. the rusher is so from a purely rid of this point of view, it makes like some sense to trying to reduce tension with russia and concentrate on china. and trump and ministration has basically been, you know, suggesting that this is from nixon to china. moment in reverse, that trump is, is going to, in a sense, go to most go, we'll meet with with persian and cruel boots and away from the russian relationship

with china to. yeah, i do want to get back to you crane. but china, very quick. actually 2 of seemingly be much colder on the plan to reduce nucleus golf balls by 50 percent have. do you think anyone in the trump administration quite understands what's been happening these last few years and that some nickelodeon, cleaving of badging and most coaches isn't on the cards because of the sanctions that were imposed. i mean, do they understand that that's over i think i for quite a long time. and there is this very foolish tool cuz it's crazy. a breach between rusher and showing no turning roster, in some sense into a you know, arrival of china. that's not going to happen at the same time, but a lot of russians are worried about russian becoming too dependent on china values . you know, one of the things that we have to offer to rusher as an incentive to make peace

that ukraine and reduce its dom honesty. right? the fact that, you know, as long as western sanctions and european refusal to buy russian energy remains, you know, china or isn't a buyer's market as far as russian energy is concerned. and therefore, you know, has the ability to dictate the price and, you know, the, the price, the price is being set by the chinese, i'm not favorable to russia. so uh, you know, i think the, there is the tons of, well, on the other hand of groups, the close, the very close russian chinese relationship does. um, you know, bring a lot of benefits to the chinese in terms of energy security type, military technology, other things. so the unit there is the ability not to create a breach between rusher and china, but so you know, to crazes, suicide,

an extra degree of distance between them. yeah, the zoom connections a bit off the washington. i don't know what the us department of government efficiency affecting zoom. what do you think the head of this european, extraordinary summit of why on earth, the europeans or an elite group pro, run their your up at the moment. what, why they didn't have a plan b, a in case this kind of administration. i was ever to take office in the united states that wanted to make peace, wanted the tool and to some kind. they don't seem to have any plan be, i mean, you mentioned the energy actually your best being buying on the gray market begin to g from the who knows maybe even more than try to, we don't know. i mean, the sub, the cost of the war on ukraine is it was at the britain in front of germany, up paying for the world. new. great. now you play as some of the policies of the go

to well, i think the point is that from many, many decades from the united security and strategy point of view, your pin country simply outsourced the brains to washington. and, you know, not to one party will be out of it to the bipartisan us establishment. it's not that body pauses and establishment. just ceasing to exist fluid. oh, sorry, but you know, you worked at some of the highest levels of you certainly within the scholarly framework in, in britain and in europe as well as a, you know, within this bipartisanship how, how, i mean, you say that just of pick up, they've just outsource their brains to the circle, deep state. i mean, why didn't they read your books? they just know like you are now and then it printed off base and it is very old. and you know, particular, i think it was,

it doesn't surprise me much in germany because all of this comes out of the post from the 2nd will. it doesn't surprise me so much in britain because it's a great extent, the or patricia stablish much as most with the american bar. and of course, the subordinate wrote, it was somewhat surprised me. the french have done this to such an extent. so, you know, they just were not thinking, they spent the unity, the 1st trump administration, basically just waiting and praying for the democrats to came to come back. they came back, they would say the delights here, that they subordinate themselves completely to buttons, gender and ukraine. until you know, months, in some cases, literally weeks before the last election, many of them refused to believe that trump could be reelected. and they was so frightened of that because of course they, they don't want to think seriously about, you know, having to defend themselves,

draw up plans for them and security, they're just not used to it. and i mean to be fab of coal, some. well, 2 things we won, as we saw with stallman speech and bottom, and this is going to take a lot more money that they don't have. they didn't want to think about that this is, you know, going to be very, very painful. but the 2nd thing is, of course, that for a whole set of reasons, they've trapped themselves with rhetoric against russia, with the even a grotesquely overblown language about russian genocide. russians threats to your route, you know, etc, etc. and you know, it's easy enough it from the to reverse that because you know, he wasn't in power, it will be easy, i think. and to couple of years if we see a dependent governments in front of for dependent government to reverse it. but

it's quite difficult to know for governments which are being screaming and talk with that voices. you know about how, you know, you train must, when we must back ukraine for as long as takes of full then, you know, basically to turn on the dime. i'm change that to language, which sooner or later they're going to have to do, but it's, it is difficult, except if you have an elite that is so out of touch with your own population all easily does horribly unpopular, including stories only just been elected in, in britain and you have no real education and diplomacy. i don't know. none of the norms of diplomacy built up over hundreds of years. up in uh, in western europe. uh, being applied whatsoever. it makes it dangerous for most go doesn't it? because as the united states may seek its own, deals with the russia. how to deal with the idea with m, i 6 will be there, the, you know, off to 80 piece agreement. as for the nazis of the east of you,

great. and you to under basic lensky, and will be against any uh thing that zalinski is forced design. how can they be trusted? because the drones is still there and frankly, trump said the, you know, a few days ago weapons would still be flowing in just not more. so and uh, but we do know that the drum new drum and johns low, well, he wants to supply a towards me. so i was easy to down in front of this, but he's expanding the war difficult for me months ago of what it is. and you know, there was so much talk in the west of how we comp, trust the russians. and that's why, you know, the ukraine must have absolute guarantees and so forth. but the point is, of course, that the russians has at least equally good reason not to trust us. given the number of agreements that the west is broken up. but also of course, um, you know, as a russian expert said to me recently unit,

no agreement made with us can be trusted beyond 4 years because of elections. and you know, another policy comes in and simply tests everything up. but do you kind of the, the or pins would be insane to you know, undermine a piece process, a new crime because that would infuriate trump and it really might please the europeans like trumps, as they all are undermining them, jumps as they are undermining the base agreement and the coolest front and the britain have you in security council vito's. so the united states rush here in china conte team up and get a resolution to prevent these west and european powers that i call them the european rump of your asia from acting some sort of madman strategy. do they not realize russia has the largest number of nuclear weapons and that they would be against policy in washington, moscow and b j i'm not sure that they do, frankly. um, i've been approved by the lack of serious strategic salt in europe. i'm. but as i

say they're just not used to is i, you know, mean the bushes, tabs and basically for many years. and i was being used to getting its orders from washington, and in a sense it is still a bad and the orders of the last us administration. without it, it seems still fully taking account of the fact that, you know, you have a very different us administration. i mean, my theory is that this is so deeply, i mean it was kind of genetic the imbedded in your pin for an insecurity establishment. then think i would spend the next 4 years, basically treading water. um, well, praying that the democrats come back in 2028 a box. you know, that is give them the general situation and extremely stupid policy to follow

a professor, leave it on a copy of that. well, if i'm the director of the i is your program at the quincy and city of responsible state gloss. after this break the hello and welcome to the cost of full horses. here we discuss the wheel and the the welcome back to going undergrad. i'm still here with the director of the raise

your program at the quincy institute for responsible statecraft prevents. and that will leave in present even at the end of the one you are talking about the possibility of europe and the leads just treading water and waiting for the jump to leave the office. do you think one thing that might concentrate their minds apart from their own electorates? of course, because they will be elections in wisdom your but i'll give the may change policy is if trump starts to withdraw us basis, say from germany which is now seems to be being discussed in the united states circles. he. he only gave a few minutes as far as i understand it, to the publish present. dude, when he visited washington, all the talk is of moving these tens of thousands of american troops to, to poland. do you think that will make these european leaders understand that i know cause a lot of bases in britain as well? the idea of with it, they're going to be moved as well, but that will kind of make them realize that arms control the tool and these are the most important issues of uh, uh, lives off times right now. well,

i think, i mean, if trent news troops from germany component it won't have any effect because this will actually indicate an increase of us commitment to defend eastern europe. however, petite could well be that the trump administration will make this proposal in order . then to be able to bargain this away with russia, as possible by the arms and invitation agreement. as you know, out of the whole ukraine peace process, we'll have to see the thing is that some on the one hand, i don't think that there's any chance whatsoever the, the trunk ministration will leave and they took the old will withdrawal the main us basis from your because, you know, amongst other things ramstein,

nashville space in, in germany, in naples naval base in the mediterranean, a very important to projecting american power in the mix of, sorry to interrupt the if the talks in riyadh inside of your area, which we know privy to happened to mention that as a overarching security architecture discussion outside of ukraine and palestine. do you think because the nuclear weapons i understand are in run stand right at the targeting run or yeah, i don't know that, but i mean, what i'm sure is that, you know, they use at least really government and these riley, nobody would have hysterics or space so that america was actually withdrawing from europe. and even while the trump is not going to listen much to european governments, he is going to listen. one assumes 2, and that's on yahoo. up and then, you know, there, there is the, in, as a basis and intelligence gathering based and in britain. but on the other hand,

of course, i mean, so a fearful all the europeans and the germans. and of course, the polls and in particular about any us with the tool that's it would only take a raw the limits hit us withdrawal threats of, of withdrawal. you know, not sizing done wrong starting on. but, you know, between some of us troops basically throw a bucket of cold war for them and tell them, look, you better listen, when we tell you that, you know, we, we want to peace settlement with russia. so i think that could well be the the approach or the trump administration. they also turned in a mood to send some pretty stuff messages to you or yeah, know that the j d balances message at the munich forum and elsewhere about the lack of free speech

in western europe seem to do much them and me. so the remaining police and judges grew front runner and remain is election which has been referred to again, i think by j. b, j. d. but you don't have some shared values. if you're jailing people, you don't have shared values. if you can single reactions because you don't like the result that happened in your romania, but i suppose they'll get the message. these european relates that the, they better take the old is just as they took me, what is blinking and but otherwise they're in big, much bigger trouble than even would have been wielded. uh, how would it be wielded by them and blink or i think so. i mean, if you look at the new john and sean solicitor's magnets look, he what some black rock for most of his career electronics atlanta system is, is, you know, they extend to his bones. and so i strongly suspect that all through his talk of your pin independence in the end he will defer to,

to washington. and the other thing, of course, is that advances remarks have been portrayed as america against your, you know, in america cutting itself off from your husband. fence is part of a total of what firms is trying to do is position himself as the leader of a new international, conservative movement, including the ones like the pen in fronts. and gonna ask the in germany, that's very different from trump who don't, who genuine is not give a damn about ideology your europe will, but many other things. but this wasn't violence against your this was events citing with this new wing of european politics against the old europe in which anyways, if wouldn't center which anyways in the us. and it's because of the sell sanctioning of the 3 is since $20.00 to $82.00. i mean, these are all yesterday's men in effect as incredibly unpopulated, unpopular they zivare huge the divided populations between rich and poor. and

then we get a comment like method. fredrickson for denmark. thing kind of piece is more dangerous than war. i mean, a window hear about them eventually realizing they have to follow washington's orders, but that as, and what is being site. this isn't what it's been sounding like for the past. the days since the munich security summit, again in the game except for macro in washington looking like, uh, uh, like his yeah, hope. the dog. i mean they, they keep saying this is dangerous, trump is wrong. the americans are wrong. and what was the germans talking about? some is all the americans talking against nature. it was the german seeming to suggest the hand of nato and going out alone, a pariah continental west and continent. the, because the crazy thing about that is really to really i'm sure some of the americans, few and future american simple. that should be a most, it's, you know,

to, to end the war and ukraine and reduce tension with russia. and you know, i have reminded some danish tells us that russia and no russian government, as far as i know in the whole of russian history. leslie bruton has ever claimed or threatened a single inch of danish territory mange. i'm where as of course the us administration has just only exactly to monday but for we say suggestions very strongly. but denmark mice, honda is a 100 as 384-0000 square miles of danish temperature, most of them in fact, oh, well, i mean it's not really denmark, but still, but it is very old. i mean, you know what it is done, but we're going to allow that trump the story to but it is getting the right to bring it to his birth, you know, but i mean in a western academic, so i like to,

to preston in a patronize in fashion about pos dependency of russia. you know, it's tied towards history in pos dependency of china and wherever. but you could hardly find a more pulse dependent lot of them. uh, you know, the, the pin for the security of the, to the moment they, they put themselves on a railway track as halston to teach with russia. and they seem incapable of getting upset. i mean, they will eventually, but i'm my goal. it's taking a long time because when it'll take generations, and of course, it's not just the leads. some polls show that a convincing number is a population of western europe as a realm of your raise. you do believe all the propaganda and so on and the see russia as the biggest threat to their existence. not realizing that the reason defense expenditure was lower was not because since 1991 wasn't because of the

united states of paying for it. it was because the russian pose no threat to the exactly. i mean one of the crazy things is, i mean, i suppose this is also this, the sites my age. but nobody seems to remember, gorbachev will go up the mania, advise him and his idea of a common european home. um you know, whichever, whichever one was of july sure. you guys will close in his late. he is going to trust. i mean, he strangely criticized. guten! but he also bits of the come down to west, so betrayed that vision and roughly, i think. but of course, when it comes to your pin publics, well, what can we expect? look person. i mean, is the bbc i am the times. i'm the daily teller growth and even the gone to a unit. i'm the magazines. oh, it'll say exactly the same thing. and the read,

basically getting back to from government funded. think turn switch all unanimous on the same subject. you know, i mean, you come expect temporary people to know any better. they, they all, i mean that's the thing. so we talk about russian misinformation a box by different pulse of course. but even if you look at britain today, um, in the very mean in a sense, there is no public debate. there is no public serious public discussion about british interests, british priorities, international realities, minute free reality is i'm gonna really authoritarian regimes would have to work very, very hard to create the kind of, you know, absolute media and intellectual consensus that you see in the,

in britain and in fan is doing this, the are who i have the gods to say that other things, those are lead still want are detained in my country are in daniel countries in prison, of and r t is bad. and of course the fox news is banned from broke cost effectively . there's enough comb agency that prevents view points and presumably some scholars press t v from a bunch i'm and they just don't allow they use the rumble in front is banned. do you think we'll ever see a free press again in western europe as possible? what's been going on as in uh, q have, and most ago when i hope so, but of course the fear is, and i mean, i think you've seen this in america that, you know, let's face it on the democratic policy and it's media or allies, you know, winton for a, you know, as,

as it turned out almost totally on based unit campaign of misinformation, against trump, as a russian agent. in the process. of course, all of this will come out of inventing material or adopting totally, you know, on base material and the schools manipulating the us secret services. well now you see of course, the trump administration hitting back during the same, you know, the same. but if you like, even worse, i mean, this is my fear of quotes that the, the present order will collapse. but you will see a new from, you know, the more radical rights in europe. and which will then try to impose its own and forced consensus, which will be different, but it's not necessarily better. just finding that i had it those extraordinary

summit. so what, it'll just be a bunch of days any it will give you a real move don't seem to understand the new realities. what the, what does it say about scholars, interior politics and international relations scholarship and international relations in diplomacy. in these western european capitals, will it take a generation to get people to understand the group think is the enemy of being a scholar? well, i have to say, i mean for me, this is a deeply depressing because i was, as you know, to invest and on a pulled by what's happened to westman john, listen and an academic terms. i'm a combination of the international relations, the tax buzz, and as far as i can see, i are as an academic subject has, has become totally useless. it's contributed nothing new value in policy terms to the formulation of policy. the historians are very good at discussing

the immensely complex reasons for the origins of the 1st. well, i'm, you know, jen, jen generally agreeing that they went complex on the phone to room, but she wasn't on one side liliana. i have withdrawn those terms from any attempt to suggest that this might have lessons for the present to lessons of i do know the self righteousness of the present and the area stopped is um for the time. but uh so yeah, well i am in a move dispatch. maybe i hope that will correct itself professor rather to leave and thank you. that's it for the show you. some it's on ukraine is scheduled for thursday. we'll be back with a brand new episode on saturday until then keep in touch while we're on social media results, huntsville country, and what channel going under going to be on the com to let you know that there's a going undergrads is that the

russian states never as tight as i'm sort of the most sense community best, most all sense and up the in the 6595 and speaking. what else holes question about this? even though we will bend in the european union, the kremlin media machine, the state on the rush has to day and split the ortiz full. even our video agency, roughly all the band on youtube, the payment services for the question, did you even closer to the

people please? then please feel free to protect yourself. good. so like, no, those are right and the orders showing that we're in good shape. as i mentioned that enough for the 3 with the navy university in the way chicago, illinois doesn't always color kind of roland result of the tailor. should i just click on the news list, any slab with the room that is on key out of my breast mistress, the rescuer, a phone number or the sure. and then for example, that you patients at the, the,

the coalition of the loring as the u. k. and friends, pits of farfetched plan to put boots on the ground, a new crane, meaning they can't do it without the us, which isn't exactly rushing to get on board. i've asked every foreign minister i meet with tell me your idea of how this turns out. most don't have a plan, a few have said, well, let's give them another you are fighting a year from now a year later after another year of death, another year of destruction. essentially, ukraine is on live support. if the european union and the americans do not provide funding, then the ukrainians will not be able to fight and more over the ukrainian state will not be able to survive. the hon gary and prime minister warns that kids hands are tied.