e, but this situation is unfavorable, it only reflects the fact that imports are declining much more than exports, both in physical and in value terms in the next 2 years, and there will be a partial reorientation of trade flows, imports will gradually begin to recover, exports will continue to decline. including due to the decline in world prices for major export commodities. this will bring e to a significant reduction in the current account surplus. as for this year's inflation, it all e will be affected by restrictions on the supply of goods and services. i mean, the company's rising costs, including logistics costs and restructuring of technological processes change, business model supply is declining more than demand, which generates

high-information pressure as a whole. for this year, consumer prices are expected to rise by 18-23%, according to our forecast. but this includes the sharp increase in prices that has already occurred since the end of february and is especially strong in march, and future inflation annual inflation over the next 12 months for april 23 years will be much lower in the baseline forecast. it will be in the range of 10-12% . the main price adjustment to the changed conditions will take place this year to a lesser extent next year as a result, annual hmm inflation. next year it will drop to five seven percent, and in the twenty-fourth it will return to the goal. reduction of inflation and its return to four percent

will largely be due to ongoing monetary policy our forecast takes into account all adopted and announced decisions of the government on budget policy additional decisions will be taken into account by us in future updates of the forecast and may significantly affect it. and in conclusion about the risks for the forecast and the prospects for monetary policy, we are in a zone of colossal uncertainty. at the same time, there are very significant changes on the supply side and on the side of factors affecting the aggregate demand. today, supply is declining. outpaces the decline in demand, but in the future the situation may change. this means that it is possible, both about inflation and disinfectant effect. uh, so it 's especially important for a central bank to make informed

decisions, a, given the changing balance of risks. so far, the most likely scenario for us is the scenario when inflationary factors and risks prevail, but the pendulum may also swing in the other direction, when demand falls faster than supply. this can happen in a situation where consumers are still in a tough economy and supply is already starting to recover. there are other forks for our future decisions, for example, related to exchange rate dynamics or credit crunch, as well as the emergence of new external e, trade and financial restrictions, indeed, much will depend on the development of events that are unfolding rapidly, so the importance of operational data, both at the macro level and at the sectoral and regional level, is even more important.

as of today, we see room for a key rate cut before the end of this year, the current forecast range for the average key rate for this year is 12 1/2-14% for the next nine eleven%. and at 24, six eight percent. e, the possibilities and timing of the use of this space will depend on the incoming information from the development of the situation and further changes in the balance of risks. we will make decisions on monetary policy, taking into account the need to adapt the economy to radically changing conditions, while price stability remains our unconditional priority. since without it, sustainable, economic growth is impossible. thank you for your attention, and i and alexei borevich. we are ready to answer

questions. and colleagues, please, i remind you, please, don't forget to, uh, introduce yourself and name your building. and nastya please you the first question. anastasia savelyeva interfax but you wo n't say what kind of inflation you expect at the peak and by uh, when this peak will be fixed. uh, the second question. the united states is now working on the possibility of transferring russian frozen reserves to ukraine . and how realistic is this in general, since the reserves are not confiscated, but frozen, and what share or volume falls precisely on u.s. reserves a hmm and you said earlier that there could be lawsuits due to a reserve freeze. at what stage is this process and another question. can you tell me how gazprombank will sell the currency that they receive as part of russian gas settlements in rubles. and the central bank had to

present its own different procedure, what will be this different sale procedure? thanks for the inflation. uh, in annual terms, we see a peak at the end of the year, as i said 18-23%, but this really due to the fact that inflation for 23 includes uh, sharp uh, price increases at the end of february at the beginning of march. and what about such sequential inflation? well, probably, most likely, we passed this peak. alexey borisovich, uh, you can give, then, really the maximum monthly. there's a rise in prices, it happened in march. it was very large by all historical standards. uh, hotels. we will get a noticeably lower figure. it is valid, since the monthly rate of increase in prices appears to be in the rest of the spring and summer

will be higher than the rate of monthly price growth last year, then annual inflation will rise a little more, but in the fall, uh, and i remind you last year in the autumn month. september-october inflation, uh, was already high, uh. well, probably, during the autumn, we will most likely overcome the maximum value of annual inflation at some point by the end of the year, we will reach 18 e 23% in december, and as for, and possibly, the confiscation of the frozen part of russian gold reserves, we are preparing everything necessary legal remedies in the event of any development of the situation. that's a lot of organizational legal work. hmm, if it's certain that we'll be allowed to use legal remedies. we found ourselves in a situation where many institutions have either been canceled or are close to being canceled, and there are no

ready-made recipes here. how to respond to this cancellation, but there are proposals that parity decisions are needed regarding the property of unfriendly states, persons associated with it, but this issue is outside the mandate of the central bank. as for our strategy and tactics. e legal protection now there is active work in this direction, but, probably, mm, and it is too early to talk about the details. and as for hmm payment, and gas in rubles? uh, the procedure for the sale of foreign currency received on special accounts in payment for gas, as well as the overall relationship between gas buyers and an authorized bank. they are determined by a presidential decree by a decision of the board of directors and adopted in accordance with them, e, the rules of the most authorized bank and the current procedure.

he clearly defines the period during which hmm funds from the sale of foreign currency are credited to the ruble accounts of buyers of natural gas; this period is defined as two business days from the date of receipt by the authorized bank of foreign currency from buyers. these rules are available to gas buyers. they create a clear understanding that the payment mechanism itself is transparent and balanced in the current situation. we do not see the need to make changes to the established procedure. mm, we are getting information about the concerns of individual gas buyers regarding. e possibilities m-m the emergence of difficulties with currency conversion, e, coming to special accounts of authorized banks. and as a consequence, er, the potential impossibility of paying for gas in rubles. and at least in this regard, i would like to assure you that if

the established procedure for interaction between gas buyers and the authorized bank is observed by the buyer and there are no problems for the authorized bank in terms of selling currency on the stock exchange due to restrictive measures on the part of foreign countries, then there can be no any obstacles to payment and receipt of natural gas. thank you colleagues, please, rita please. thank you very much, resplash tass uh in continuation of anastasia's question, i would like to clarify when the regulator expects a steady slowdown in inflation, and uh, the second uh question. uh, is uh, the central bank considering the same bold steps this year as it did today to cut the rate by three percentage points at once, should we? uh, the same luxury to wait on and

on thank you as for, uh sustainable deceleration of inflation, of course, we are all interested in this. uh, now the current inflationary pressure, as i said, is decreasing, but this is after a sharp increase. uh prices in february to march. uh, it will continue to depend, and on the development of the situation, first of all, on how quickly the supply of goods and services will adjust, it is now, uh, in many respects, the determining factor is not the only one, but the determining one. as for the next steps. uh, well, indeed, we, uh, lowered the last time. hmm, and the rate was three percent in this time by 3% of a point, but this was the movement due to the fact that we were cleaning. that's how i already called the so-called premium from the key rate, because two, when we raised it to twenty

percent, and one of the main ones. the factors, uh, were limiting the risk of financial stability and therefore, uh, of course, everything depends on the development of the situation, but in the baseline scenario, we see a more measured movement in the future. and if you pay attention to our key rate forecast until the end of this year under the base scenario. we hmm, we see a and that is such a development of the situation when we will not have from this space to reduce, that is. eh, so here a lot will depend on the development of the situation and on the ratio of different factors. colleagues, please, next question yes, ivan, please. good afternoon. here are two short questions. this is the first question. this is about dividends and company reporting.

is it worth it now for public companies, but to report and pay dividends, i mean russian companies, and the second question is about non-resident foreign investors, uh, who currently have limited ability to sell, and russian securities. here. eh, how long? this freeze will last, taking into account the risks, if they come out, then this will create great risks for the russian stock market. thank you, but here's the thing about disclosure . it is true that the company has the opportunity not to disclose these statements. yes, i do not make a decision, based on this a and that the same company applies to dividends estimate, and how much now it is necessary to pay dividends to shareholders or hmm to make decisions about not paying dividends. indeed , depending on the situation in which a particular company turns out to be, we have a company whose financial results are growing and cannot afford it

and are confidently looking into the future and there will be such a difference, because now the restructuring of the economy is really taking place and very big changes. eh, as for mm. uh means foreign investments in russian securities, but really these are the restrictions that we have imposed on the movement of capital. hmm we are currently discussing within them the possibilities for non-residents to carry out portfolio investments in russian securities within the framework of accounts such as s and hmm. well, these are just the approaches we are discussing. yes, but at the same time, the possibility of withdrawing these investments abroad. repatriation in some foreseeable time frame is still impossible to say. sorry the next question is online, but olga shiritsa to lead,

sevastopol olga please ask questions. hello and my question is in the continuation of the topic of inflation here. e, what was the reason that in early march, prices doubled even for domestically produced goods, for which there was no rush demand before. the reasons for the rise in prices, er, and at the end of february, at the beginning of march, one of the reasons was the rush demand, also against the backdrop of the weakening of the exchange rate, but the rush demand. it usually acts immediately on a wide group of goods, a wide range of goods, regardless of whether they are imported or produced here, except in addition, when we often say that these are russian goods, they may contain imported components. even very subtle minor ones. hmm. well, here's a well-known example with paper bleaches and so on. and so it can also cause. uh, logistical issues and, as a result

, prices rise, but we see that after the rush demand has gone and against the background of the strengthening of the ruble, we are experiencing a significant slowdown in the rate of price growth. colleagues, please, katya last row good afternoon ekaterina litova statements of the ministry of finance said that he is preparing, uh, preparing a new budget rule, whether the central bank takes part in its preparation and how the regulator sees it. this is the first question and the second. what options did the board of directors consider today regarding the movement of the key rate. thanks yes indeed such discussions go. i consider it important in the medium term to return to the fact that the budget policy was an anchor of some sort, anchor of which was the budget rule. and here, well, apparently, it will be a modified er, the rules of the details to discuss wounds.

there is, only alexey borisovich will not add something. no, i think that these are, as it were, the outlines of what the ministry of finance thinks about at the ministry of finance. so in advance. marked e, the day before yesterday here. well, i think the discussion will be, uh, still going on for some time as part of the preparation of the three-year budget, of course, we will take an asset in this. participation i hope that with regard to those decisions that were discussed today at the board of directors , there were mainly two options for a decision to reduce to 15% to reduce to 14%. colleagues, please, yes dmitry hello, dmitry bodrenco mersent, i have two questions. the first question concerns part of it was answered, by the way, concerns the savings rate in companies, and for their households, it is now the second year that

it seems to increase people's savings for corporations is already more difficult, but in very different ways. and how do you process it? you see a longer perspective in the perspective of the twenty-third year, but will there be households, because the numbers still reflect the accumulated results, there are many factors, but will households still want to increase saving? and the same with the company and the second question. as for the ruble, after the introduction of capital control, it is obvious that the effect of the transfer of rates. prices look different than what they looked like before february. and what, in general , is the ruble now in the changed conditions, does it have anchors, and what to focus on, how to say e in the balance of payments on the balance of payments to focus on something else, but in determining at least the ruble will behave there in the future and how inflation will be related to the problems. thanks in regards to the savings rate is really the savings rate. mm has grown and with

a tight monetary policy, the savings rates of the population are higher than they were there in the twentieth twenty-first year, but hmm as they decrease. e hardness levels and as we return to the inflation target. uh, i think the public's propensity to save will roughly return to some long-term norm. as for hmm, the company’s savings, the company’s savings, apparently, it’s about what they keep in deposits, and alexey borisovich, i’ll ask comment. maybe for the first e, i 'll add the population too. uh, there really is an additional motive for saving, under which it is customary to call saving with precaution. that is, when under conditions of high uncertainty. people save simply because they suspect that they need some kind of additional airbag , probably such behavior. we, too , can observe the next couple of blocks there, but then again, it will e go to no as

the bottom point of the economic downturn e passes, as for companies, uh, usually after all, the savings of a company is not about, uh, how they use their time for free funds, their free cash flow in the whole company, if they do not see, uh, attractive, uh, objects to invest, they are their free funds. well, often they just don’t accumulate so much on their accounts. how much is returned by an emotional person or used to pay off a long time. eh, that too, eh, quite. ah, a natural process. uh, there will be a strong difference between industries, because again, this one here, and then what many times. we repeat and we government economic restructuring means that the effects will be very different from what is happening in different industries. uh, but uh, while uh in terms of investment behavior. as you can see from the

forecast this year, uh, there is a very strong uh, subsidence in investment investment investment activity. uh, gross fixed capital formation, we expect that this year will be reduced by 16-20%, but already from next year. e goes into the positive zone. that is, again, here within the framework of this logic of behavior. uh companies will probably be similar to the behavior of the population from next year. investment demand will also make a significant contribution to the recovery of aggregate demand, if questions about it. as for the exchange rate, the factors that affect the exchange rate have indeed changed significantly. yes, uh, with restrictions on the movement of capital, first of all, it is affected by trade flips in the trading account and to what extent exports and imports. uh, how much exports in this case exceed

imports, and this is the main factor, although we, of course, have some capital flows. but this is the main factor, but at the same time, we proceed from the fact that with these restrictions. uh, according to the movement of capital within the current account, the rate should remain floating, that is, it should be balanced depending on how much the exporter sells. how many importers respectively hmm buy at the same time, of course these restrictions on the capital account, they hmm weaken the possibility of financial markets. financial flows smooth out er, exchange rate fluctuations. well, there are seasonal fluctuations within the current account, yes, so the exchange rate can be more volatile than with an open capital account and with the fiscal rule mechanism. yes, that is, these are two two elements that largely smoothed out. it's exchange rate volatility. hmm and uh, it's probably very important to note here that uh,

when we're talking about price stability and the effect the exchange rate has on inflation. uh, that is, the effects of hmm exchange rate pass-through in consumer prices. they, well, the effects may remain, the mechanism will remain the same. it will simply be determined not by the capital account regime taking into account the capital account, but by the shares of imports associated with imports costs and, in principle, with stable imports. in dollars, the pass-through effect to rubles. uh should be exactly the same as it was before, but we now see that, in addition to the fact that there is an increase in dollar prices in the whole market, world inflation, but also the dollar prices of imports for us are growing due to the increase in the cost of logistics and so on and so forth, so this optical may look like more of a carryover. yes, but it

reflects other others others in other factors related precisely to shock and suggestions. thank you and the next question is online a alexandra wald project life and invest a sasha please ask your questions. hello, the main purpose of the monetary policy is to protect the income of russian citizens in the national currency. we see that real inflation is actually much higher than the sound and today it is obvious that the policy that is being pursued the central bank is not enough of those measures that are not enough now. the question is how politicians will change in the future in order to come to the inflation threshold you declared today. thanks e. well , indeed, the personal inflation of each one is different from the statistical one. yes, we understand. everyone has their own consumption pattern. although now

the structure of consumption of the population will also change. and, of course, the methodology for determining the consumer price index is potentially. it's got to be taken into account as far as hmm is enough death monetary policy. well, that's inflation. we've always talked about this, after all. the ratio of supply and demand and now the main problems associated with rising inflation on the supply side. the disadvantage of this proposal hmm and mmm . uh, monetary policy affects the demand side, if we suppose now to greatly reduce the key rate, and the supply, due to logistical restrictions that exist and which do not depend on the level of the rate, remains low, all this will result only in an additional rise in prices, therefore, we must carefully monitor, when pursuing monetary policy, what happens to us on the supply side. e in order to hmm and

not allow accelerating inflation, but rather, to have a steady slowdown in inflation. at the same time , as we understand that there will be a structural restructuring of the economy and a restructuring of relative prices in relative in this period, the inflation rate may be increased above the target, and this determines our monetary policy, but nevertheless inflation should be stable decline. this is fundamentally important for the economy in that there is predictability for all subjects of economic activity in order for long-term loans to appear, it is important that there is confidence that inflation will gradually decrease to the target level. this is our task and , uh, a brief commentary. here on uh, the standard remark that inflation is higher. uh, officially reported uh, must uh, cite uh,

the results of the latest fom poll on inflation expectations. and there are two interesting facts. first, the fact that the population's inflationary expectations in april fell sharply compared to march appears to be. this is largely due to the stabilization of the exchange rate. they came back about the middle, 21. that's what the chair of the speech mentioned, but the second even more interesting fact is that the observed population is inflation. uh, according to the results of the survey, 19.9%. here, and the official current inflation. well, and so the assessment of annual inflation from the last week. now about 17.6. this is the smallest gap between the observed population inflation and the official for a very long time, which really calls into question how much inflation is felt. it is very different from what is officially airported. thank you, colleagues dilya please thank you

very much, dilyar, sun velberia news, i have questions about reserves, and the first question. uh, the central bank disclosed the structure of reserves around march 25th. and then you said that you had already prepared for the geopolitical risk, and you finished it. e share of gold and yuan in reserves up to about 50% has it changed since then somehow the situation. how much is the share of gold in reserves now? this is the first question and the second question, and in response to the freezing of our reserves, the central bank also imposed restrictions on the movement of foreign capital. is it possible to expect that such a situation is such a status, whom will remain until then, in the meantime, they will be lifted restrictions. they will unfreeze our reserves. thank you uh, regarding the structure of gold and foreign exchange reserves, we will continue the data on reserves, though in such a

truncated form, but with a flag in time, we we leave the principle, so i will not comment now. what share? uh, how things have changed, but you saw that we uh resumed buying gold. as for restrictions on the movement of capital and, accordingly, the situation with frozen assets, we imposed a restriction on the movement of capital primarily in order to reduce the risks of financial stability in an environment where we cannot carry out foreign exchange interventions. and these risks have grown substantially . you probably noticed that after that we er have taken some mitigation measures hmm ah these ah. e these restrictions thinking about it further. uh, uh, and ours. uh, hmm, our goal is that you are a business that builds new

chains, enters new markets and, uh, continues to develop something trading activity was predictable, it was possible to do this, and uh, but we were introduced for the risk of financial stability. not only restrictions on the movement of capital. do you remember we conducted and hmm necessarily the sale of foreign exchange earnings hmm and at the beginning it must be was selling within 3 days. then we e extended this period to 60 days from the beginning for non- commodity, then for all. hmm and now we u proposed to the government commission to consider and the next step, but for non-commodity non- energy exporters. in principle, it is already possible to zero e-e, it is obligatory to reduce the sale of foreign exchange earnings for raw-material e-e to 50% in addition, what we consider e