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central bank today will make a decision on the key rate market participants expect another decrease to 10:00 or even nine percent per annum such a step is possible thanks to the strong ruble and the slowdown in inflation alexandra nazarova will tell more about forecasts and situations in the economy the bank of russia continued the easing cycle monetary policymakers, such a forecast regarding the meeting, which will be held today, is given by representatives of the

banking sector, let me remind you in february in the face of sanctions pressure from regulators. increased the key rate from nine and a half to twenty percent, but already in april there was an opportunity for a gradual reduction of the central bank three times adjusted the rate with a step of 3%. this time , another decline is expected, but not so sharp. although the latest statistics on inflation allows us to make bolder forecasts, if earlier another week ago. we, like most market participants, a assumed that the decline would be 1%, and then the latest inflation data, a for the last week of may, which showed a decrease in consumer prices and, in general, a very low inflation rate for may, a as well as a low level infectious expectations create the prerequisites for the fact that the rate cut may be stronger. therefore, now at the last moment it is possible to predict up to nine, that is, a decrease of 2% to 9% per annum compared to april in may per annum

inflation fell by almost a percentage point in the first month of summer - this trend continues at an upward pace. prices continue to decline and come close to 17%. normalization is due to the strengthening of the ruble, the absence of a commodity deficit and the contraction of demand, inflationary expectations of the population are improving, experts are also adjusting their forecasts for the end of the year, the inflation forecast. we have recently improved. in particular, after the release of the may statistics, it can be seen that inflation is slowing down at a faster rate than we expected early deflation in we start with pleasure, and we lowered the rating from seven seventeen and sixty percent. finally a year to 15%. a strong ruble also makes it possible to follow the course of reducing the key rate, moreover, this is partly. helps to stabilize exchange rate dynamics. although now the influence of the rate in this segment is not so tangible, experts believe the main factor here. they call the expansion of the

trade surplus exportable. we are significantly more than we import, according to the preliminary assessment of the central bank, as a result of a surplus in the current account of the payment russia's balance in january-may increased by almost 3 1/2 times compared to the same period last year. however, in the coming months. balance. may start to shrink speaking experts. in addition, the requirement for the sale of foreign exchange earnings of exporters is softened. at the end of may, the norm was reduced from 80 to 50%, and from june 9, the size is already determined by a government commission. as a result, the ruble may return to a more comfortable value for our economy. although it is quite difficult to make exchange rate forecasts now, most forecasts are. focused on lowering the price of oil. at another half year, respectively, a reversal. the ruble is in the direction of weakening, but we see that this scenario is still not being implemented and, on the contrary,

new estimates are emerging. m that oil prices may continue to grow further, so there is a very high uncertainty in the ruble exchange rate, but while we keep our forecast for the end of the year at the level of seven seventy-five eighty rubles per dollar, the main task now is to stimulate credit activity and the economy in overall, despite a gradual slowdown in the growth of banking deposits. significant funds of the population go there; they can be redirected in a different direction. here the central bank wants to change the trend, so that the money goes not to savings, that is, to deposits. and just spent, uh, by the population and went to consumption, that is, lowering the rate will lead to the fact that, on the one hand, the company will have loans available, because the rate is lower, and on the other hand, ah. and the same enterprises that will be able to invest will also switch to consumption, and the demand for their products will go into the central bank’s fine-tuning mode

notes analysts. this year. we can expect several more cuts in the key rate, but with a small step, and before making decisions, we will need to carefully weigh any changes in the dynamics of inflation and economic growth. some foreign brands have put their business in russia on pause. what could be the losses in the event of

their final departure and how shopping centers will change about this special report by anna lazareva a room and a half, the museum of joseph brodsky's apartment in st. petersburg appeared in the life of an entrepreneur maxim levchenko several years ago in museums he is only 2 years old. although the history of its creation has almost 20 years, this is the place where he lived. e, joseph brodsky, before his departure to the united states, the businessman gathered a team, attracted funding and solved a long-standing problem with the premises here with us, e, the archive is forming our collection, which contains the autographs of brodsky 's poem, literature, books, and so on, we

got a modern space where the only one in st. petersburg is located poet's apartment museum, exhibition bookstore lecture hall bar and an endless stream of visitors with a record for 2 weeks. sometimes maxim himself conducts excursions. as a matter of fact, there are one and a half rooms in which the brodsky family lived in 1955. in the year 72 , brodsky leaves for emigration, he says, the museum, as the second work for the soul, the main work maxim levchenko manages two dozen shopping centers. now he takes up almost all his free time. we have to engage in de facto anti-crisis management. many large shopping centers have such half-empty floors with dark shop windows. foreign brands are located here, which have

suspended their work in russia; these were often well-known brands of clothing and footwear, which not only occupied a huge area, but also attracted an additional flow of visitors according to various estimates. now 20-30% of the area is idle in shopping malls, according to forecasts, 3 million square meters will be vacant by autumn, the territory of 420 football fields, malls' incomes are falling, it is becoming more and more difficult to service loans. europolis is one of the most large and modern shopping centers in the city is included in the portfolio of ford group where maxim levchenko is a managing partner. now, of course, we have a big tragedy in our understanding, because, uh, only having reached the normal pace of the pandemic. again, let's say we faced such a difficult challenge. but here we see that an almost empty gallery, closed in a row almost massimo blow for zara's arkul then i'm

not bad. in no hurry to break the lease in the hope that the stores will open after a while, but there is a big fish, uh, which which floats on the ocean, and around it such small fish join, and this one here shopping center works in much the same way. yes, uh, in the beginning there are large large tenants, and small ones line up around them, then there are no large anchor tenants who suffer ; at the same time, the expenditure part of loans. taxes. remained the same says maxim the key issue for us. this is a property tax we are talking about optimizing the tax burden with the president of the russian council of shopping centers , dmitry moskalenko. according to him, the main problem is inadequate cadastral valuation, on which the size of taxes depends for 7 years, it has

never decreased. although the industry was going through hard times. no one is reviewing it. and while we are up, well, as it were, we do not see economic reasons, because incomes for the shopping center are not growing yet. they're all going down all the time their arguments. russian councils outlined in an appeal to vladimir putin in the same place a request to impose a moratorium on the collection. taxes on property and land until the end of the year. at the same time, to calculate them as a percentage of turnover, dmitry moskalenko addressed another wish to the monetary authorities to add predictability to monetary policy. we would like to somehow take some kind of strong- willed decision of the established key rate and not touch it. ah, two years, let's make it 4%, thereby increasing demand, leave it for 2 years stable a little bit do e property tax exemption business.