there is no demand in the global market for 3.5-4 million barrels per day. let me remind you that now we have already returned to the global indicators that we had before the pandemic. this consumption total for the year is more than 100 million barrels per day. well, in addition, the international energy agency also makes its own forecasts and conclusions. and just yesterday, in his latest report, he talked about what we see on the market today, and some increases in production in countries that are not part of the association of guardians. plus in the first place, of course. it's strange too oil and production they didn't sign this deal and now it is expected that there will be a gradual increase of 1 million and 900,000 bpd this year. e production is in these countries and in fact the same figure will still be in the twenty-third year, and experts from the international energy agency, they believe that such a bias is possible due to the fact that custody plus, in their opinion, does not fully comply with those criteria . which are declared and of course,

including due to a decrease in e, production from them again i emphasize the opinion in russia, i remind you that regarding oil. uh, the united states immediately imposed an embargo on russian oil in the eu, it will be, uh, the bargo will gradually come into force for some time from 6 to 8 months, but if the countries that are not affected by these restrictions are these bans. well, and in addition, of course, everything that happens on the market and quotes certainly react to the statement, as we see recently now for a barrel of north sea. brenda give about 120 dollars. today morning there were the same quotes, but lately, the maximum figures have been around 130, and this is how the figure has changed and how the cost of a barrel of oil has changed, and on those statements that were made against that situation against the backdrop of the situation that exists today in the oil market, but definitely. uh, the gas market is directly dependent on the oil market, and in

march, around the ninth, we saw that the gas market had record highs. it's over 2,000. e dollars were given for 1,000 cubic meters. this marks in europe then gradually the situation stabilized. well, those marks that we saw, of course, were facilitated by a number of factors, including the regular discussion on the ban on russian gas supplies to the eu countries influenced these figures. in addition, we know that transit through the territory of ukraine is also not fully carried out now. well, the fate of nord stream 2 is also known, so we saw a jump then. now the situation has somewhat stabilized, but still, of course, the prices that are on the gas market europe for european primarily consumers. they are very high, because they hit the pocket, we know perfectly well how it is now and what is the situation on the market today, for example, energy in europe, when is it huge? the bills are

two to three times what european consumers usually pay. well, i remind you that when the sanctions were introduced. uh, russia has proposed the following option, e. payment for russian gas in rubles. ah. the following scheme is for a buyer who wants to purchase russian gas. he is in his own currency, that is, the euro gazprombank transfers to e, which then converts the money on the moscow exchange and gazprom transfers rubles already, thus all payments are made in rubles. uh, in total , companies that signed contracts at different times for different periods of time, and there are 54 of them with gazprom. there are companies all over europe about this, alexander novak, deputy prime minister, spoke about this as part of an event of russian social science, where he just talked about how that today 54 companies in total work half of them, according to his data contracts have already been signed for that period of time. by the way, he will be in our studio, i will definitely ask. how much is the company now. perhaps this figure has increased, therefore. the calculations are in progress. in the

meantime, europe itself is in such a situation that , according to the statements of the heads of european countries, it is necessary to increase all the reserves that are underground and gas storage facilities, but the point is that it is still necessary to increase the volume in ugs facilities for a single temporary period. well, forever. naturally impossible for germany , for example, the following is the goal in october to e ugs facilities were 80% full, but, and in the future, they were already 90% full, and now berlin is very actively striving for this goal and filling gas storage facilities as much as possible. and, of course, in addition , even today, if you look at the overall situation on the european energy market, it is, in principle, like this. and we supply about 45% to the gas market. in addition, we supply virtually the same amount of coal and 25% not all of the total consumption that i have in the

european union and, of course, at a time. about what today the europeans say to replace such volumes, well, it’s simply physically impossible for those volumes of lng that they plan to buy now, and the countries that have terminated any contracts with us, or those who want to do this, but increase physically and technically. uh, very quickly it is impossible with these volumes of production that are necessary, therefore, of course, it still remains dependent, especially when it is actually dependent. well, somewhere on and somewhere on the third, somewhere even actually half, therefore, in the current circumstances. we know how the negotiations are going today, but we certainly know what is happening today. we are now talking about the european market and the energy markets, of course. all this affects global gdp indicators to the level that was expected and, of course, what will be here is also the situation. she is quite complex. let me remind you that many people are now talking about the world global recession, because

if we saw growth rates in the nineteenth year, they were about two and a half percent. even a little more later, uh, we saw a decrease in the 20th covid year, and then there was actually a decrease of more than 3% of global gdp well, in the 21st year, there was already growth to 6%, but these figures that i just mentioned they, of course, are now not quantified by those changes that are taking place in the global economy in terms of, of course, calculations in terms of the purchase of certain goods and services, because, of course, now there is very high inflation and, as i said, the inhabitants of those countries themselves suffer first of all, which heads of state have imposed restrictions on russia well, if you look at, for example, the inflation rate for the united states, the mark of eight and six tenths of a percent. it is very large as well, however, as for the eurozone to show at the highest eight percent, it is actually a. time has never been certain. this is

reflected in the economy. and, of course, on the lives of ordinary citizens, because, as i have already noted , we see the rise in price of gasoline almost every day, and articles in newspapers, magazines on television about this the european press also talks about how the price tag changes for the usual goods and services and very many people. it's just that europeans can't afford to live anymore. under these conditions, there is certainly another such cornerstone of this whole story. this is transport accessibility and logistics, which, of course, given all these restrictions introduced. it is now becoming more expensive, because we know that we also know about closed territories to transfer sea flights from somewhere to somewhere, so, of course, the increase in the cost of logistics is directly reflected in the cost of those or other goods and services that are often well , some products. they simply disappear even from the shelves of stores and they also talk about it, including in the united nations organization, they now generally pay a lot of attention there. the situation

that exists in the food market the fact is that we see, among other things, reports on the current situation about how countries, for example, africa, suffer from the fact that they do not have the full volume of goods that they need in food . and, of course, we also know about the rise in prices, and all goods and products, more in the fao, this division of the united nations organization that deals with food issues is actually already sounding the alarm saying that well, if not global hunger, then nevertheless there is a food crisis. it threatens among, of course, reasons, and i will remind you of the ban that the united states of america has imposed on the supply of russian fertilizers. true, already according to bloomber, literally the information was a couple of days ago, and in the quiet, not to mention it. uh, officially, so as not to involve additional attention and engage in additional pr for american companies, meanwhile. all the same, they continue to buy russian fertilizers using some other schemes, because, let me remind you, our

country is the leader in the market for the production of certain categories of fertilizers and chemical protection products, so, of course, uh, the situation on the food market has also attracted special attention today. but this is global. eh, the economy, of course, will also be talked about today, and not only today, but also on other days. well, that's about it what is the situation in the russian economy today, what has already been done, what else needs to be done today and will be discussed in just a few minutes by representatives of the russian financial sector. this is the minister of finance, anton siluanov, head of the central bank elvira nabiullina, assistant to the president maxim oreshkin well, in addition, the minister of economic development maxim reshetnikov will now discuss the current situation in the russian economy. and let's see just this session. good afternoon i am glad to welcome everyone to the forum

st. petersburg international economic forum. i think that the most important achievement that has already taken place. we are almost all without masks and can see each other's faces. this is certainly one of the most important achievements from the last economic forum. we're having a fantastic, fantastic session, but before we start. i would like, well, by virtue of commitment to the principles of democracy, to give the halls the opportunity to vote, as sociologists say, i beg you truthfully. and don't think about the consequences. raise the hand of those in the hall considers himself an optimist does not concern the presidium, they

are optimists by position. so once again it is possible that i colleagues suppressors accurately count no? no, sorry, please, we did not create a counting commission. this can only be done by secret ballot. that's why the vast majority. e. well, then you can start it is very important. for those who are sitting on the stage, but because i hope there is no need to introduce the people who are sitting on the stage with us. and so, uh, getting ready for this session. i'm the only newbie her. to be honest, i looked at all the previous ones and saw that this session usually followed the same scenario, which of the great financiers are you in brackets of economists. well, for example, baptized agard, uh, crystal georgiev and so on and so on and so on told us how things are going in the world and talked about what we need to do in order

to be like in the world. by the way, everyone appreciated what we are doing, how everything is very good. and we have a little left. that's the point is that here we have quite a bit left. it was said every year in this session since this is the session. e began, and it suggested such an academic one. well , you know, how the atmosphere of the symposium is a conversation on the topic of macroeconomics. here today. i think that there is no need to convince anyone at a time when specific decisions are needed on absolutely specific issues on specific problems. however, there is such an opinion, it is quite common, that you need to be patient a little, and everything will be as before, everything will return to normal on the stage, the people who take part. working out we really

acceptance. excuse the tautology of the most important decisions in the economic sphere, and therefore each of them can not only talk about these decisions. and can explain why this or that decision is made. we have very little time, only an hour and 15 minutes. and so i won't interfere anymore. i have a first question. let's come to you so that we will have everything as before. christina now, it seems to me, is busy with other problems there - inflation. and once a little grown up and take care of yourself, but now they said such a phrase, yes about the fact that, uh, everyone wants wait it out. this is actually such a normal

property of the human psyche, which is designed to protect a person, that if something changes in life, the first reaction, of course, is a denial of what is happening. well, that's a completely wrong approach. i look at the erroneous strategy in many of the meetings that have been in the last three months, then somewhere else somewhere constantly heard phrases. let's wait now, let's not make a decision. now everything will return and nothing will need to be done. it's very, of course, the wrong approach, because what is happening now in the world is not really some kind of short-term. history is a very profound change. profound changes in geopolitics. eh, there, if you turn, even there to the speeches of the president. here he was a widow a year and a half ago. in the same place, the diagnosis is clearly decomposed and e, the desire for unipolarity, which leads to confrontation between countries. and problems with social

inequality in the world problems with macroeconomic policies, so all that is happening now is one of the in this big chain, so the answer to your question. no. and at different levels in the public sector they are aware of this, the sooner they build a strategy based on a new understanding of what is happening, the better it will be in our country. thank you, but then, based on what you said, look, because a lot of decisions are being made. here. uh, by the way, here, uh, i look at anton uh, sometimes very expensive solutions for the budget. however, now i can say, now this is my feeling that does not leave me that we are largely degrees in the measures that are being taken today in this unique situation. we copy the

measures that the successful ones actually successfully applied during such covid, that is, covid times. and here, uh, anyway. i think there's probably a difference in time, uh, and in the problems that are coming up now and no, well, there were some serious achievements there last year, we have, i think, 4.7 economic growth, but we understand, that it was, after all, recovery growth and, at the same time, recovery growth in the world 6.1. here we are in this situations. we react to sanctions, but also business and key people. they want to hear today how successfully we are fighting against sanctions. they want to see the future. they want to ask what model of the future we offer them in the first place in the economy and, uh, instead. unfortunately, sometimes we hear uh, you know, such competition in

catastrophic forecasts. you said that as it was, it won't be. and how will it be, if it is possible, then, as it were, maksim gennadievich would throw the question over to the minister of economic development. uh, firstly, according to the fact that since it was not going to be or even argue now. but no, i can’t see it in my face, then i will, but i ’ll probably start with the topic of comparison with the code, because on the one hand there are certainly similarities and similarity primarily concerns, and the speed of decision-making is flexibility, because we really. the practice that has been working in the covid-19 and, in general, let’s say methods, approaches to decision-making, the speed of reaction and the willingness to take serious steps. we really are all used, a and in this situation, at the same time, i completely agree with maxim stanislavovich that, but the situation has changed dramatically and if there was a task in covid, what is called waiting out and one way or another, we understood

that yes, the world will be different after covid. well, in general, and in general it will be similar, but now we understand that the degree of similarity. well, in general, she is. eh, let’s say it’s completely different, it will be so. that's our task is also to buy time. yes, but this time is needed in order for the very structural restructuring to take place and to the external environment. here, too, i fully agree that external conditions are changing radically and the world economy is changing. well, and, accordingly, our economy under the sanctions pressure of reorientation, and the supply chains of the restructuring of production. the chains will also change, so the depth of these changes is different and, by and large, according to this decision, which is now being taken on a scale. well, there are the same deferrals for social contributions, or there is a vat refund or budgetary expenses, the scale of our loan programs is the readiness of the state to participate, including jewish lending to the real sector through guarantees, the choice is everything, it fundamentally has a different format and fundamentally,

but in a different way to influence the situation. at the same time, of course, we understand that what the models of the future will probably be and what the structure of the future will be like. we have yet to define this. the process that is going on now and which depends on the decisions that are now being made in the end. you said that we are all competing there in catastrophic forecasts. yes rather no probably, the last month, on the contrary, went. uh, a wave of improvement in estimates of improvement in forecasts. and in general, yesterday hmm and the central bank. or rather, not yesterday, but recently. i am clarifying my forecast for the better. we are also preparing to refine the forecast for the better, so we soon see that the measures that are being taken so intensively. they give their results.

a tele2 subscriber on his smartphone is always fully charged. with cool equipment, he can send gigabytes at any time. and knows when to buy leftovers to sell and even to cinema change subscriber tele2 subscriber so, only in tele2 tariffs and every day i invest my time and care in business, so i connected the service package. summer on

yandex.market, buy what you need with discounts up to 80%. e.g. dewolf bikes up to 25% off. this is an advertisement for vtb and it's time to speak frankly there are things that will not disappear anywhere our decades of experience that helped us become stronger and survive all crises 1,300 branches across the country with real professionals who are ready to help in real life life, not just in advertising government support and trust of tens of millions of customers. everything, this remains unchanged, as well as our responsibility to you. that is why everything will be in order with your money, as from the fulfillment of the dream of your home and the opportunity to support loved ones at the most necessary moment. go to vtb and everything will work out. in 2022, the

implementation of a unique project will begin in st. petersburg. gorskaya territory of innovation cooperation agreement for the development of the territory between the city government and of the megaline company was signed as part of the st. petersburg economic forum in 2021, on june 8, 2022, the results of the international architectural competition were summed up, the consortium with the austrian company cube hemilblb became the winner, the best foreign architects work with the megaline company, we are developing our hometown. we develop russia megaline invest in the future. what to do when inflation rises bcs knows investments and stocks? download the bcs investment world app and invest with the leader. just now we raise the rate by 5%, a bonus on your first deposit in any bank in finn, register and open an online

deposit well, here is the fast payment system, a new way of contactless payment for purchases. i decided to make it difficult for her the task of forecasters. this is the last thing, in my opinion, in the face of unprecedented uncertainty that we found ourselves, well , considers that they are enemies there or unbelievers. i think it's just completely misunderstood what the situation is. a. well, it’s complicated and it’s not important here say someone made a mistake in the forecasts, but really show the flexibility of the situation is changing rapidly, and one would have to have. uh, opportunity, skill. respond to it quickly. this is in my

opinion. the main thing. uh, the second thing i wanted to say as before, will it be or not? i think it's obvious to all of us that it still won't. we repeat this, as such a banal phrase will not be the world has changed as before. what won't be the same? uh, external conditions have indeed changed for a long time, if not forever, and we have changed significantly as a country, we are currently losing from participation in the international division of labor, because our exports are discounted, imports are at a premium, a and under these conditions, of course, in my opinion , we need to rethink what we also talked about, but did not advance the benefits from exports . it has always been believed that export is such a value in itself. we receive foreign exchange earnings in the country. but if this export does not buy imports, and if you need to accumulate risky assets in assets, you need to rethink and finally think about the fact that a significant

part of the production should work for the domestic market to a greater degree of processing more. uh, creating the final end product. uh, regarding your direct question about gdp , gdp is good, but when we measure, uh, and we want to measure and talk about people's well-being. these are, of course, non-volume indicators. we all understand this, well, at least gdp per capita. yes , the second thing that is very important is the distribution of this wealth wealth among people. yes and here is the problem of inequality - this is the problem. not only social are economic problems. if there is an inequality of access to education. all this is reflected in labor productivity, so, of course, gdp is a good indicator. well, not the only one, and hmm, you need to look at what measures the quality of life. thank you please indeed. uh, everyone was waiting for the reaction of the money is not,

but it's me so then, wait about uh. so it will be the same or not. yes, well, really about the river. you can remember, yes, that it flows, you won’t enter the same water, but that’s not the point. the fact is that they really understood that the globalization we used to go through is not at all like that. eh, let's say that. eh, comfortable. e, k. e ours to the countries, because here it very clearly appeared that i say my alien globalization, that's why globalization turned out to be very politically biased and in this regard. in connection with this, we have encountered all these obstacles that we are currently working with, and

now it is clear what to do, it is clear what needs to be relied upon first of all. we need now actually, as before, there was a new economic policy, a new industrial policy based not only on one's own strength. i agree that we should not close ourselves off and in no case should we do this, but with support and in the first place it is necessary, in fact, those critical technologies that we must produce. eh, life has shown that without this it is impossible, this is how it is. we know the food security doctrines there. so it is necessary to do the technological safety doctrine there. here and uh, the following to us, and in this regard, of course, we need more of these, as it were, more freedom of entrepreneurs. we need less administration. now for the administrative impact, we need more protection. actually. we've been saying all this, but now it's all coming up as just a necessity, as a necessity, so uh your question uh hmm

what uh means what to do and what indicator is an indicator? yes, you said gdp and some other you know, probably, m-m two indicators. we also discussed. uh, in the government, it's inflation. why it would seem that this is not e income of the population is not growing economic, because employment is a complex indicator that tells how the economy works, unemployment is full employment, which means that employment of this income of the population. it's uh, work. uh, once again i repeat the economy, inflation, the indicator that says how much uh. uh, prices affect these incomes, how much they can both eat up part of the income, or , on the contrary, incomes can grow in real terms, so in many countries, uh, these two indicators are key in assessing e

economic policy. it seems to me, uh, in addition to gdp , uh, growth there, yes, it’s understandable, once again, i repeat, these two indicators cannot be sold in any case. thanks maksim gonovich hmm it seems to me that such a conversation is in itself. generally abstract enough. what kind of gdp are we talking about? we have four estimates of gdp, so when maxim stanislavovich, uh, ended this one in the future as minister of economy, our gdp, uh, in 1919, growth was, in my opinion, 1.6%. now the estimate is 2.2%. well, basically different estimates, therefore, it is also very difficult for us here. like what kind of forecasting we do. i always ask myself a question. what score do we predict so which ones were coming. which or what figure we choose, if you take, let's say, the growth of real incomes of the population. you will show a different dynamic. you just showed just now that you have chosen the parameters that are convenient for you you don’t have the feeling that we very often

choose the parameter that is convenient for us at the moment the question is not about that the question about meters and about what methods are behind the measurement, so when we make a decision, as anton germanovich said, of course, we look at a wide list of indicators, of which the task of well-being is well, no less important than the formal gdp growth that it actually was, we will find out only in 2 years, so we have a lot of indicators and now, thank god, we have a lot of operational indicators in our hands, starting with ccp and the money supply of the central bank. here's a great job done we really have enough economic statistics, so that, well, adequately, as adequately as possible, assess the situation. then why is maxim stanislavovich as i understand it, he wants to add then why, after all, here is the indicator. drop it's always interesting where it all starts now everyone sees the manufacturers of

good things they want and it's best to check.

already, taking into account the transformation, if you agree with this, what awaits us, look, if you look at our entire economy, we have now given the example of lada granta yes, the cars of our economic development are part of the details financing of high-tech companies there are a number of other elements that are not currently available. this is exactly the task of exactly that structural change in the economy, which was told to make it so that the car was assembled and at the same time was of good quality. import substitution yes, well, it is obvious that

import substitution in this word in itself implies copying. well, there is something what in the world exists? let's do. we actually have a copy, if we approach everything this way, then we will not achieve anything in our history shows what to achieve something we can much more of it, to the soviet union that now, well, let's see, uh company. yandex, for example, and search did not even replace google, they made theirs much more efficient and algorithmic. uh, yandex.taxi won the competition from uber. e, by making more modern quality products. or, for example, financial services. in our country, yes, people who come to other countries see how much russia has moved forward here. that is, we are able to make quality products. able to make them on the new level exactly this task. it is necessary to make it clear

that to replace everything at once. yes, do everything new at once, it will not work. this process is not easy and structural restructuring will take place for some time, but you will see products appear. but the main thing is to set the task of making them at a qualitatively new level, not to repeat the mistakes that exist in certain western, for example, institutions and in these inflated levels. that is, after all, here, uh, you can. to the question i did not ask what task i think that with the tasks that you are now designated no one argues. i asked what awaits us, these are different things. thousand-year history of russia already strong already strong this is a low blow

let's do it this time let's do it well? it will take time it will take effort of work. well, you know, i just remember something from macroeconomics, for example, the leontief function, which is crossed by retelling in simple language that the absence of nails does not allow building a quality fence. even with the maximum increase in the release of the number of boards, it seems that no one has canceled it. that's what you say, i i just wanted to make a video, basically, we lived for almost a century lived in a situation where, in general, we thought that we were forced. i'm not going to say.

there it is right wrong. we just had to rely on our own strength. so, when you talk about solving these problems, what does this mean? again, the question of an amateur fan of the beatles or something else? well, of course not, yes, because obviously the economy. on the union, for a number of stories, it was ineffective, and it was not thrown that it was closed. she was it was inefficient because it was not competitive, it was inefficient because it was over-centralized, all this is not there. and of course, it won’t be in russia, another model is more effective, more capable of changing borya is capable of creating new things and examples and countering the pandemic and the work of the business. now it shows that we can cope, and we will cope. so, yes, please, i think this is the key question,

because the question will be later for you about the financial system. the key question, because everything is um they fear that this restructuring will indeed lead to degradation in conditions when we are deprived of our usual access to sources of technology. this, of course, is what everyone here wants to avoid. this is not a task. yes, setting the task, of course, setting the task of modernization. just how. well, here, in order not to return to the soviet union, where was it? of course, you just need to look at private initiative differently without private initiative there will be no technological development. it's not a question. there taxes are not a question of support from the budget of some projects. this is all that is connected with the development of private initiative. if you let it manifest itself, then there will be the development of technologies for the development of innovations. what we call modernization, but everything should be around this.