uh, this time it's not just an economic blow, it 's including a whole series of artificial restrictions on certain types of business, technological restrictions, we can't use a whole range of imported e equipment. and you understand that this is the most technological sector in russia , banking, so, on the one hand, it is familiar on the other hand. uh, a number of fundamentally new restrictions. i can say that for 3 months from the end of february, in fact, the work, the opening of other large banks. e is fully stabilized this is said by the fact that deposits are loan portfolios. here, for example, they have even grown compared to the beginning of the year, but, uh, we de facto need technologically and this is primarily transported, since many services. they will be unavailable and you need to understand that, for example, an ios device is on ios. strategically, they will work in russia, it

’s just that you have to put up with it and look for a technological replacement, it’s clear that there are a number of restrictions on mobile applications. uh, payment calculations is something to be reckoned with medium term. and to these technological changes, banks must quickly, uh, adapt, and we must find the third one. uh, each of the banks is a whole new business model, because the business model that was before february with a huge share of expert import operations, foreign exchange payments, foreign exchange savings of their population in russia was almost 100 billion euro dollars. uh, this model will no longer work if we are talking about the global russian economy. and now what do you see inflation caused before the russian economy to end of the year, what dynamics are expected in exports and imports? how will this change, do you know? we e

after the last rate cut by the central bank on june 10, we expect inflation to be around 15-15.5% this year. that is, even slightly lower than it is now, there is no such a large decline in gdp, as we planned for ourselves before, that is, within literally five and a half percent this year. uh, this is uh good, but uh, here uh, where do we disagree with many? uh, i think that this is the exchange rate of the ruble, which is now developing. many they think it's artificial, that's all. but there's no machinations of the central bank or the government of the russian federation, but in answer to your questions, exports will most likely, uh, be russian at about the level of last year. well, maybe 10%, but less. but imports have declined sharply and very sharply , and therefore, the features of the russian economy this year are the current account of

the balance of payments and this is the accumulation of foreign currency. oh, and accumulation. here is the same currency, which was partially arrested by the gold reserves. e february. but the problem of using this currency by both economic entities and monetary authorities is such, in fact, the main challenge. because the structure of exports has changed drastically and uh, this is not happening. eh, too much. uh, too fast. well, look in this situation, the savings paradigm is also changing. it turns out that the russians are now expecting from the real estate market how prices will be affected by new ones, and conditions for preferential mortgage programs. well, you know, again, over these months and there will be more there is a change in the behavior of the population. where the russians, in principle, invested, they kept about 20% in foreign currency, let me remind you, they

invested very actively in housing, especially when there was a preferential mortgage at the lowest rates and the third direction was becoming more and more active. this stock market is almost 7 1/2 trillion rubles. and various investment instruments have reached. hey, here's the volume. uh, it was the investment of the population by the end of last year. now. unfortunately, investing in foreign currency in securities, foreign practically it is impossible that part of the investment has depreciated and that's the direction. it is no longer so attractive, at least for most investors , but still deposits and savings accounts, that is, traditional banking instruments. and with the further development of mortgage programs, housing will probably remain one of the key areas of investment as well. uh, of course, it will be less than

square meters, since housing prices have risen, but in terms of the amount of investment. people, probably, especially when uh, again state support programs will invest quite a lot of money in housing, that is, these two areas will remain as the main real estate and deposits. i would also note that, of course, not only constitutional instruments are leaving the currency, but the amount of foreign currency savings is also declining. uh population part people withdrew cash in march. at the end of february, now, quietly, this withdrawal is taking place. and of course. uh, since the economy does not objectively need such volumes and banks. she doesn't need it, then of course the rates are on currency deposits. they are zero. sometimes they are even already negative, and therefore the currency is, as it were, just in case for foreign trips, but it is not a store of value. you have already said just now that the rates are real, they artificially explained why, and what links for the ruble exchange rate to

major currencies you see before the end of the year. well, you know, with such a structure of the country's balance of payments, as it exists now with, uh, much less active, uh, tourist flow abroad and not only tourist, because russians spent another 25-30 billion dollars on educating children for their own education and for treatment abroad, these are the flows of currency and countries. they have also declined significantly, so uh, you can weaken the ruble exchange rate only by lifting restrictions more and more actively, and in fact, the government is doing this, and by some kind of revival of imports, a revival of imports of not only consumer goods, which i think will happen quite quickly, this business will provide but also uh, import. there technology because basically e beats the reduction. that's all

registries that are introduced to the import of technological equipment, well, or complex products, such as, for example, cars and uh, without revitalization may be from other jurisdictions of supply. uh, these imported goods will be very difficult, uh, to weaken the ruble. although this. maybe both the government and the monetary authorities in a broad sense would like to, and we will live all this year on a fairly strong ruble, but maybe at the end of the year just because of the balancing of the balance of payments. of course, it will weaken somewhat from today's level, but it is unlikely to be weaker, than 70 dollars 70 rubles. for a dollar. and there is another very important topic. now they are writing about the sale of the opening bank was announced earlier, and the decision that the bank will be attached to vtb however, there are different opinions and the media wrote that there would be a meeting with the government on this matter. what

mechanisms and options are currently being considered? well , first of all, i'll note that we've successfully gone through the entire , uh, last four-year period. eh, the net profit of the discovery at the end of last year was 71.72 billion rubles. opening as a group, that is almost billion dollars, which is why we understand that the discovery, even after being included in the station list, is a very attractive asset. our capital is now money capital, as a group of approximately 425 billion oe, rubles is precisely money capital, which is why there are so many discussions. i wouldn't prejudge now. uh, the final solution is being discussed and one and the other options are clear that it will be a sale to the central banks. uh, discovering how competitive it will be. uh, how the buyer will be selected, uh, that's all, it will just be determined in coming days. our task is essentially to provide our customers with our shareholder. good results

and i can say that according to the results of five months, the opening of the russian standards and now summed up about 5 billion net profit. that is, we despite all these difficulties that you have been talking about, we are profitable uh by russian standards this year. well, clarifying question. can we say that there are some alternative investors now and maybe there are some of them, we certainly are. uh, we're negotiating. uh, including with uh, private investors and we feel that there is certainly a demand for our assets mikhail mikhailovich thank you very much for the very interesting answers, let me remind you that the president of the board of the otkritie bank, mikhail zadornov, was in our studio and gives the floor to my colleague maria in slobodyanskaya. yes, maria thank you very much, we continue to analyze the key statements that were already made at the session of the st. petersburg forum. and, of course, the key session. today was devoted to the state of the russian economy and what are the prospects for its are waiting. what vectors of development need to

be developed now, and in general speaking at this session. the head of the central bank, elvira nabiullina , noted that the financial system now faces enough. an urgent task is the creation of an international settlement system based on partnerships and agreements. and our country really plans to focus on this. in addition, she noted that the financial system of our country is stable. this, of course, is a huge plus. at the same time, most of the currency restrictions, as stabilization the economy will need to be removed and it was also said that even now the government is already gradually softening various currency rules, including a lot of talk about imports and exports , and the bulletin probably noted that the russian market and russian production will need to switch to domestic consumers . and, of course, change their export supplies. still yes or no? i think it's obvious to all of us that still won't. we

repeat this, as such a banal phrase there will be no peace still changed hmm what won't be the same ? eh, external conditions have really changed for a long time, if not forever, and significant ones have changed, we as a country are currently losing from participation in the international division of labor, because our exports are discounted, imports are at a premium, and in these conditions, of course, in my opinion we need to rethink what we also talked about, but did not promote the benefits of exports. that, as before, the economy would not say and presidential aide maxim oreshkin, he replied that those trends that are now observed in the world economy are deep-seated and, of course, concern not only our country, he also said that under these conditions , inequality and poverty will be key indicators of the state of the economy, including the state of the russian economy, while the forecast for and

he called the decline in gdp quite optimistic and suggested that it would not exceed five percent. in addition, of course, they also talked about import substitution , and maxim oreshki noted here that russia should not replace all imports and there is no such task. worth it because. we just need to develop and increase our own technologies. in many areas, results have already been achieved. 20 we can much more of it, to the soviet union what now, well let's see, uh, the company. yandex for example, yes search. i didn't even pre-spoof google made my algorithms much more efficient. uh, yandex.taxi won the competition from uber. e, by making more modern quality products. or, for example, financial services. in our country yes people coming to other countries see how much russia has moved forward here. that is, we are able to make high-quality products are able to make them at a new level smoothly.

this task must be made clear. what to replace everything at once, but to make everything new at once will not work. this is a process, a difficult and structural restructuring will take place for some time, but you will see products appear. but the main thing is to set the task of making them at a qualitatively new level. about how the budget and budgetary relations will be built. the minister of finance spoke today anton siluanov. he noted that it is necessary to bet on critical technology. since all countries were not working before, including due to political divisions into their own foreign, while budgetary rules are also necessary, anton filanov noted that budgetary support for industries should be dosed unconditionally. this is a medicine that helps business develop, but we should not become a drug in this, but in terms of course, russia needs to live through and rely on its own income in order to

not to accelerate the inflation of the state, in the meantime it must take on the risks of the business for the sale of goods, that is, to provide them with the domestic market. now we need to support only what is demanded in the first place, namely, those new technologies that we spoke about, which have now become less accessible to us. yes, it's electronics. this means our numbers. these are the, uh, means productions that require. uh, restoration and reproduction is already our own hands. here's what we need to support now. of course, in the margins of the form, a large sign is signed the number of agreements, including those with the regions , the governors of the regions talk about them on our air. in particular, the sakhalin region plans to develop the gas industry. it is now becoming more and more relevant, i suggest listening to short comments. aviation fuel we can produce

gasoline we can produce uh, diesel fuel for the needs of the region quite right, but please note that aviation fuel gives us an advantage in the asia-pacific region of our aviation the aurora company, which serves the entire far east, will not only make social transportation cheaper, but freight transportation will also appear. in general , on the sidelines of the forum, they note that the departed foreign companies, of which, of course, there are now many, they open niches for russian business. and most importantly, that the main task facing the government. this will provide good macroeconomic conditions for russian entrepreneurs. these were the key statements that have been made at the sessions so far, but i give the floor to my colleagues, not to lazareva thank you, thank you maria and now next to me is the head of the federal customs service, vladimir bulavin, vladimir

ivanovich hello well, of course, let's start. i think the sanctions are life in the new conditions. you also live in new conditions, how does the customs service feel? and uh, were you able to adapt to these new conditions? yes , indeed, not my friend, other countries are putting sanctions pressure on the russian federation. it’s not just pressure from our ports that the main container lines have left, our brownies are forbidden to work in european countries. from our the domestic market has gone the legs of the brands, and it is no longer just sanctions. this is an economic blockade and basically. all this is aimed at erecting a barrier to the movement of goods and the ability to pay for these goods, the implementation of various broadcasts and, of course. this affected the

foreign trade of the russian federation as a whole and the standing of the trade turnover based on the results of five months. we can say that our turnover in weight loss decreased by 7.9%, but in mutual violation increased by 19%. and, of course, it affected on customs economic activities and in connection with this government. and this is a whole range of systemic solutions to improve the efficiency of our economy. if we evaluate the comprehensive plan adopted by the government, then we can say that 46 points of this plan are directly related to the customs area most of the businesses.

these are, of course, financial support measures for businesses, and i can give you a few examples. you probably know that import customs duties on 1,128 goods have been set to zero. tell yes zeroing, in basic customs duties. so far, 11,000 participants in foreign economic activity have already taken advantage of this opportunity. they imported about one and a half thousand different goods, and the amount of benefits was 17 billion rubles. in order to somehow help our business, which is working. here on the channel near the goods to the russian federation , you know that there were special sanctions, but they were introduced by unfriendly countries in relation to spare parts and

aircraft, and those aircraft spare parts that were just introduced in the russian federation now are issued for free release by the russian federation, on the same topics they were provided with 185 aircraft and a large number of spare parts - 178 billion. in general, at the beginning of the year, only customs communications were to support the business. more precisely, 578 billion dollars, if the import rates and the volume of declarations that our business is currently demonstrating are maintained, then we estimate the amount of benefits will be

about 1,000,000 rubles. for our part, we also accepted from merce in order to reduce the administrative burden on us without using the so-called subjects oriented model of the risk management system. we slightly improved it in terms of reducing the thresholds for designation, thereby increasing the green sector. so this is a sector. e participants in foreign economic activity, in which we fully trust. now everyone draws up 80% of the declaration , more than 90% of payments to this category of business are paid. potentially applicable auto-release mode in this mode, we now issue about 35% of all declarations, auto-release time is 2.5 minutes,

in addition, to criticize important imports, we have the first regular clearance procedure for about 905% of the consignments of these imports is processed within four hours, the frequency of inspections has been significantly reduced. it now makes up about one percent of all shipments, and we have removed such weights, dimensional control from checkpoints brought actual control to the posts in order to increase the actual throughput of our checkpoints. goes us to increase the speed of clearance of customs administration on the other hand significantly business support the quality of control, while it will not

decrease, that is, whether they will be able to import according to some gray ones. schemes understand the quality of control, while not affected, which means our claims management systems. uh, as it was configured, so these settings are saved. uh, something on the order of thirty percent of consignments falls under additional control. at the same time, the quality is a-a. here the additional control is about 50% or rather, the effectiveness of the control that from january to april the customs service transferred to the budget. over 2.5 trillion rubles this is even a third more yes than expected, how the situation has now changed following the results of already 5 months of five months. we transferred 100 billion rubles to the federal budget. this is almost 50%

of our annual order, or 25% more than our six-month forecast. what can i say that in recent weeks we have had payments on the import component equal to payments on the export component, if earlier we had a ratio of two to one, that is, 66% was import, the component is worth somewhere percent export, now the payments have been worked out. here, uh, according to the results of the same five months, payments on imports amounted to 520 billion, so our exports are growing. paws the results of five

months the same situation persists, indeed the situation persists. i have already said that our export payments have grown. this means that we now receive about 45% of payments from oil and gas revenues. how it has changed over the past month, by and large, the structure of exports has changed little, of course, with the exception of those commodity groups that fell under and we prohibit manure in the russian federation, this is primarily a machine, mechanisms, technological lines.