galya, we watch the history of russia in the application or on the website for free. new world new opportunities according to such slogans , the 25th anniversary st. petersburg

economic forum of politics is being held. economists and experts from different countries are looking for ways of development and cooperation in the rapidly changing conditions of the outside world. today, the second main day of the forum, there are dozens of various session events, round tables and discussions. the main event will be a speech at the plenary session of vladimir putin, most of his speech will be devoted to the development of the country in the new realities and, of course, the president before the remains of the situation of the world economy and politics. the day before, the issues of integration of russia and belarus were discussed at one of the venues of the st. petersburg economic forum, they talked about the creation of a business council for the interaction of the businesses of the two countries under sanctions and the formation of a single scientific and technical space. there are already large-scale projects in this area, the secretary of state of the northern state spoke about them. dmitry mezentsev, we are preparing a program for a union state to form a russian

of the belarusian satellite constellation to provide remote sensing of the earth with a unique resolution of up to 35 cm. today, scientists of the fraternal republic joined the association of those researchers who will form their scientific plans around the peak reactor. in gatchina, today we are talking about the fact that the formation of a single scientific and technological space and the creation of an infrastructure for fundamental and scientific research from the south state are just on the threshold of this, of course, this will, of course, relieve researchers from the need for double costs are parallel costs to maintain. today's programs of the economic forum are opened by the business breakfast of sberbank on the topic of the russian economy. how to build a bridge to the future live broadcast on our channel?

good morning, our dear friends, our dear colleagues and partners. i am very pleased to welcome all of you to the st. petersburg forum at our traditional event and i want to say thank you to all of you, thank you so much for being here at 8 am, despite the late event of yesterday . today you are here and today we are uh, all together we will discuss the topic, which we again formulated, based on our surveys of entrepreneurs, first of all , the topic that they consider the most relevant

for the current moment. we named it. e, after long discussions, i must say a few words of gratitude andrey mikhailovich makarova russian economy. how to build a bridge to the future? and i want to welcome here today with our distinguished members of the government, who are here with our uh, distinguished members of our parliament. and e our entrepreneurs today we have more than 20 leaders of our russian regions present here. as a matter of fact, people, uh, through whom, in fact, the implementation of the economic social policy in the country proceeds. i want to say. thank you very much to all our governors who

are present here and welcome them to this hall. well, uh, of course, i would like to introduce and greet the prime minister, uh, of the kyrgyz republic. uh, snglkovich, zhaparov and our distant partner. we have known each other for many years cooperate and e in due time. uh, we worked together in different governments and thank you very much for being with us today. uh, dear colleagues, i would like to show the traditional role with you tomorrow, to bring us all to one page of our discussion. please turn on the video. in 2022 , russia faced unprecedented sanctions pressure most of its exports and imports were banned more than a thousand

companies left russia 80% of the banking system was cut off from the world market, and half of the gold and foreign exchange reserves of the frozen showy economy managed to be softened thanks to the measures of recent years, the replacement of the dollar to the creation of its own payment system, the direction of the share of energy flows to the east, partial import substitution. but a new challenge lies. not just in overcoming the recession, it requires a large-scale structural transformation of the economy in the coming years, it will be necessary to reorient trade flows to create new industries. find new export opportunities outside of oil and gas. now the urgency of the urgency of these tasks is significantly economic policy how to create infrastructure for trade reorientation? how to

avoid becoming dependent on the new economic relations, which sectors should receive support? how the budget rule should change how to create a new russian economy and let me introduce ours, of course. key speakers, while all our guests are always our welcome speakers, and we, as always, are calling. e all to participate in the discussion. uh welcome very short uh, remarks are very short speeches and i invite all respected colleagues to discuss. uh, nevertheless there is a circle of participants with whom we spoke scripts in advance. i would like to introduce them today. this is dmitry nikolaevich chernyshenko deputy representative of the government of the russian

federation e. reshetnikov maxim gennadievich our minister of economy our minister of finance of russia uh andrey mikhailovich makarov on the budget of the state duma and uh, without andrey mikhailovich breakfast uh and thank you very much for his active position always. e borisovich titov borisovich first of all he is a well-known businessman. and , of course, presidential commissioner for entrepreneurial rights uh hmm alexey mordashov. thank you very much, alexey , for being with us, as it were, key participants, but nonetheless. i invite everyone, uh, entrepreneurs and leaders of the regions. and uh,

all participants for half an hour to participate in our discussion with you. well, uh, if i may, i'd like to show you some slides. with uh first effect we have today from sanctions, it is much softer than expected by all experts and experts. what is called on the other side of the world, which were undertaken e, against the russian economy and the russian expert - e ruble. eh, strengthened this has its own reasons. eh, of course . uh, including the strengthening of the ruble affected inflation and what we are seeing now is lowering rates and resuming lending to the economy. this is the most important factor of tradition and stability. and, of course, a huge surplus. uh trade balance. uh,

decline sharp decline in demand for currency a somewhat sharp decline in import flows led to such a period of strengthening. in general , such a situation. i never remember. uh, when , strictly speaking, no one needs currency in russia, banks introduce negative commissions , there is no demand for foreign exchange assets, and, uh, today we are in a rather paradoxical situation. and the general situation. uh, it seems not so dramatic, but of course the sanctions are taken without precedent in the world of sanctions. e, leads to the fact that most of the economy of the russian federation is under countries that have imposed sanctions against russia account for 56% of russian exports and are at risk of 15% of gdp from the restrictions that are currently introduced in

russia. it is planned to increase the sanctions pressure to 90%, e . e according to eu plans by the end of the twenty- second year and by the twenty-seventh year. uh, there are plans to abandon russian gas imports on the import side, too, difficult situations 51% of imports. uh, it falls on those countries that have imposed sanctions against the russian federation, of course, our key trading partner the european union 32% of imports into the country and, of course, this affects a number of people today. uh, very sensitive areas such as machinery and equipment pharmaceuticals uh, vehicles . well, and so on and so on and so on, about thirty billion uh of critical positions, uh, 30 billion dollars

of critical position of imports from countries that have imposed sanctions against the russian federation . another very serious limitation is logistics. we see that there has been a drop primarily in maritime and maritime traffic in the volume of container traffic decreased six times. we see so mini rational redistribution of logistics to e, road transport, and, of course, huge difficulties with air traffic. as a result, uh, if u do nothing, then approximately such a consensual trajectory of the russian economy, uh, and approximately returning it to uh, the level of 2021 can take approximately 10 years? and uh, we want to

discuss today. as a matter of fact, to put two questions on the agenda, the first question is the image of the russian economy 20-30. what we see and what we can get as a result of macroeconomic policy, structural gdp of the russian federation and the image of social policy in the russian federation by 2030. there is no point in taking an earlier horizon, of course, these will be difficult years in which we all will have to live and adapt, but 2030. this is probably the only horizon e, the most rational ones that need to be taken as a basis for building some kind of macroeconomic scenarios, because macroeconomics is has a very high inertia. we tentatively named the first scenario. and the pipe to the

east? and in general, this scenario is already being implemented under the word labor pipe, we mean, uh, everything. uh, traditional russian exports the russian economy has actually demonstrated. e, absolutely e not about- extraordinary flexibility. eh, well, no one expected that perestroika and adjustment to the new situation would take place at such a fast pace. eh, and of course it happens. this is largely due to the fact that the russian economy over the years. e. gained unique experience and most of it is private, because only private initiatives, only a huge number of subjects of independent economic entities

can quickly rebuild their business, including rebuild export flows. and we see that uh, let's say, if we talk about oil, then 73% of deliveries in march. mae has already been redirected to countries that have not imposed sanctions against russia and, of course, there are problems associated with logistics , discounts, and so on and so forth, but that no less such terms uh, redirect uh, such flows. in general, not very not very realistic, however. we see that gas and oil products are much more complex in terms of logistics e. all chains of products, but nevertheless we see that most likely, and here uh, will be found. by their own decision, but this

is not enough, of course we see that the average share of exports for the largest. uh, developed countries. it is something like this and we see that, of course, we have a lot of work to do to adapt. eh, in general structure of our economy. the main challenge, of course, is to ensure the structural restructuring of our economy, something that has not been possible to do for many, many years, because if you look at, uh, the structure of the economy has changed over the past 20 years, well, not radically. and now we are facing a huge challenge in completely different macroeconomic prerequisites to make the same transformational breakthrough that has not been possible to make in recent decades, what

needs to be done to achieve this? what economy? we want to build by 2030, and the second second part of our discussion - this is the answer to the question how what conditions need to be created? how to build this very bridge to the future, and i would like to ask colleagues to vote on the two issues that we have prepared. eh, if possible, display first , eh, we use the qr-code traditionally, and such a tool as evank and requests to enter through the qr-code open the camera and it will be possible to enter the voting mode and please put the first question. what is the desired scenario? in your opinion. the

first answer is optimal for the russian economy is that we we have already discussed what, in fact, will probably happen one way or another. this is the redirection of trade flows to the east, and the second is the change in the structure of the russian economy, the diversification of the russian economy, which has been a task for the last decade. e. enable voting mode. colleagues, but for some reason there is no voting mode. and if it is possible, if it is possible to break through the guys, i think that not everyone, maybe, managed at least another 10-15 seconds. well

, in general, the results are already there. and 27.9 percent of the participants said that the most the optimal regime is changes in the redirection of trade flows to the east and 72% voted that we need to change the structure of the economy, and then colleagues. i ask you to put the second question to the vote. what scenario do you see or do you think is the most likely? what do you believe? which of these two scenarios

is implemented in practice? please enable voting. well, here i am, unexpectedly, unexpectedly. yes , we obviously have optimists in the hall. that's why 60 percent of the participants believe that we will achieve the results of diversification.

this is indeed an unexpected result. we were arguing yesterday about what the numbers could be, but hmm, the result that we have is impressive, so if you allow a colleague, then let's move on to the discussion and the first question. of course, i would like to address. so i saw that i forgot to introduce aleksey borisovich bobotkin to the deputy representative of the central bank. excuse me , please alexey borisovich is another important participant in our discussion and the first question. i would like to ask our minister economy. maxim gennadievich in relation to the image of the future. how do you see the structure of our economy in 2030? good morning everybody. it seems to me that hermos, still, in my opinion, at least at our table. we have a heated discussion here on the topic of

rebuilding the economy to the east. this is some kind of process that, well, almost itself has already passed. everything has already happened and the oil went to the east and imports. i went from the east. actually. this is a gigantic process that has just begun, which will take a very long time, and in the process of which there will be a structural restructuring of the economy, because not all of us will be able to redirect there, something will obviously fall out, and even what we showed with oil, that everything is fine with us already and oil has gone there, but it has gone, but the oil products that we have supplied they fell into europe, oil refineries are underloaded , what went to the east, went, because kuzbass coal was set aside a little, and so on and so forth. this is to answer the questions to which we will still have to look for answers and the governor's corps, which is present here to deal with enterprises. we have not integrated or not fully integrated and so on and so on. moreover, the concept of the east, but it

seems to me, is also very conditional, because this is the south of this eurasian space of ours - these are big processes that lie ahead. in general, logistical tasks much more complex than just transib there and so on. yes, this is what we do all the time . well, in general, this is a very large complex process. it includes not only logistics it include, that the infrastructure is the construction of an independent system of foreign economic activity of the calculation of courses. uh, the price of education in our contracts, which finally need to be untied there from the dollar to create our own stock indicators. and so on and so on and so on. this is what we will be doing in the coming years, and in the process of which there will be a structural restructuring of the economy. but the question, probably, is about, here again what will the new economy be like, how will we argue in terms of new economies, we will discuss in terms of which industries again? what are the technology priorities? where to invest? well, we will probably discuss in these terms, yes, and we will talk about the fact that the domestic demand of the industry is focused on domestic

demand, and so on and so forth, but it seems to me that we have come a long way here, which we have traveled not due to the fact what we have determined. hmm, what we need to develop mineral fertilizers, metals , oil refining, and so on. and due to the fact that we have built institutions. we gave an opportunity to private business, in general, do what he does. maybe and should do. we have built, by and large, a national financial system. yes, she was not without flaws, probably, as it were, yes. well, in general, such was the paradigm. that's when we talk about the new economy. us first. we need to decide further on this course. what we do, we still rely on national capital, we still rely on building an open economy. well, yesterday morning, one of the speakers there flashed something that , like, they played globalization. well a little so to speak, they deceived us, yes, and it seems that let's mean more internal affairs. study. well, it seems to me that the setting is also not very correct there. well, yes, somewhere.