shot the bank of russia lowered the key rate to 8% per annum dollar exchange rates on such news practically did not change following the splash, and loans in russian banks will also become cheaper, the decision of the central bank will also affect the profitability of deposits the regulator was able to soften the policy against the backdrop of slowing inflation improved forecast for russia's gdp, according to bank experts .

a-a country's economy, this year will save the sky, e will be reduced by no more than six percent. previously, it was said about eight ten percent, gdp growth will resume in 2024 press conference chairman of the bank of russia or vera nabiullina and will start any minute. we'll show it live. russian defense minister sergei shoigu arrived in istanbul. there he will take part in the description of documents on lifting restrictions on the supply of russian products for export , the ministry of defense reported, and today in istanbul they are preparing to sign an agreement on russia's action and russia's assistance to ukrainian grain. in addition, the minister of defense will meet with his turkish counterpart. the government expanded the list unfriendly foreign states the list includes greece denmark slovenia croatia and slovakia the reason was the actions directed against

russian diplomatic missions in these countries , inclusion in the list in particular limits the ability to hire russians to work in the embassy or consulate of these countries located on the territory of russia being on the list of unfriendly to russia countries may have other consequences. here is how the press secretary of the president dmitry peskov commented on this news countries entails a decrease in the level of contacts. it is a matter of government it is the government that makes such a decision is bound. it is very simple with the unfriendly manifestations of these states. you know that this is due to restrictions on the recruitment of staff for consular and diplomatic institutions. there may be other consequences for these countries. of course. and now our channel is broadcasting the central bank alexei bobotkin, and we begin

a with the statement of the chairman on the outcome of the meeting of the board of directors. good afternoon. today we accepted decision to cut the key rate by 150 basis points to 8% per annum. e, our decision is based on all third-party assessments of current conditions and revised macroeconomic forecasts in may-july, inflation has been consistently slowing down due to the strengthening of the ruble and the correction in prices for goods that have risen in price in recent weeks. this slowdown has become more widespread, which also speaks of the disinfection contribution from consumer demand. we have lowered our inflation forecast for the current year to 12-15% per annum, the forecast for the next year is kept at the level of 5-7%. our monetary credit policy takes into

account the need for structural adjustment of the economy and aims to return the inflation target to uh, 4%, uh, in 2024. i will dwell on the decision factors in more detail first. uh, price pressure continues to ease uh, price declines. it continues almost without interruption. for 9 weeks now, and we still believe that the main reason for the decline in inflation is the price correction after the jump in march, and then there was a sharp the weakening of the ruble the company's costs increased significantly. i rush demand allowed them to transfer these costs into prices. and now the situation has changed, the ruble has strengthened significantly. uh, trade organizers see that some prices have been raised by a margin, however, a price correction can not happen overnight. it is stretched out in time and business is groping for such a level

that will be acceptable to buyers and will cover growing costs. the significant strengthening of the ruble had an impact on the perception of prices and attitudes towards shopping. this is clearly seen in the dynamics of inflation expectations in july. this figure dropped to ten point eight percent. and this is the minimum since march last year. people believe that the current prices of many goods are unreasonably high and expect them to come down. short-term price expectations of enterprises continue to decrease, they returned to the level of last spring. now let's talk about how we see the impact of consumer demand on inflation in recent months. it was disinflationary along with the strengthening of the ruble, it ensured a more rapid slowdown in inflation. at present, the propensity to save is high, although the situation may change, the high saving rate is partly

due to the fact that due to external restrictions and the departure of foreign companies. people could not buy what they wanted and put these funds in reserve. further dynamics of consumer demand is one of the key forks in our forecast, on the one hand, a high propensity to save may persist in the face of increased uncertainty, the population tends to save more as a safety cushion. this is a rational behavior that will allow you to feel more confident in case you have to face a reduction in the working week, forced vacation or problems with employment. in addition, the ongoing decline in prices and the strengthening of the ruble can be perceived as a signal to postpone large purchases now, in order to buy cheaper later. on

the other hand, we can get a repetition of the pandemic scenario, then consumers at first sharply reduced consumption, and then, after the lifting of the lockdowns, they also quickly restored it. this was observed in russia in many other countries, today's e, in fact, the forced accumulation of savings. this is a compressed spring in the economy, which, under certain circumstances. it can give a sharp increase in consumption with restrictions on the supply of goods and services - this can quickly disperse demand and inflation, and some signs of an increase in consumer interest are already being formed, and i will name three of them. first, by according to polls in july, people began to appreciate e, the favorableness of the current moment for making large purchases, much higher. secondly, deposit rates are decreasing, which increases interest in

consumption; thirdly, the decrease in the retail loan portfolio observed in april-may has been replaced by its growth. and on what scenario consumer activity will go in the future, whether demand will grow faster or slower, how this growth will correlate with the possibilities for expanding output will depend our monetary policy decisions? secondly , incoming data indicate that the economic downturn will be more extended in time and possibly less deep, in the current year, the decline in gdp is projected to be smaller , largely due to a more moderate decline in exports. this is primarily due to the redistribution of oil exports to new markets. uh, while the dynamics of imports is in line with our expectations after a significant

decline. this figure has begun to recover. consumer imports are mainly increasing. e, thanks to the establishment of new minibuses for deliveries e in terms of intermediate and investment imports, there are still no clear signs of recovery. conditions of structural adjustment. e, which force businesses to be more careful about the prospects for implementation long-term investment projects. the situation in the economy is determined by how the company adapts to changing conditions. this adjustment is very heterogeneous across regions, industries and even individual companies. uh, within the sector as a whole, it can be noted that many companies managed to

avoid the rapid depletion of stocks, uh, which could lead to a stop in production chains, and in order to restore stocks, it is necessary to look for new suppliers domestically outside of it takes time according to our data. monitoring. over the past 2 months, the situation with inventories has not worsened, but it has not improved either, which remains a potential pro- inflationary risk factor and this topic is sharply discussed in our latest report on the regional economy. the restructuring of the economy will be noticeable by changes in the labor market. for us, this is one of the key indicators of the transformation process. to give an example of companies that are experiencing marketing problems, one group is completely export-oriented companies that worked mainly for european markets, the other

group is manufacturers of individual parts for electronics, automakers localized in russia, furniture factories, household appliance assembly lines, due to disruption in production chains, their products turned out to be unclaimed as a result of these companies. we will either have to change the assortment or reduce output at the same time, there are industries where opportunities for import substitution open up and new jobs will be created there. uh, while the situation on the labor market is calm unemployment remains at historically low levels business uses part- time mechanisms, but as structural adjustment we will see increased labor flows between companies and sectors. considering the continuing nature of the ongoing processes in the economy, we have revised the forecast for gdp according to our estimates of the economic downturn. this year it will be less and will be dash four dash 6%. in the next e year,

the overall gdp indicator will decrease by one e, dash 4%, the future dynamics is more indicative in quarterly comparison. we expect that in the fourth quarter of next year, gdp will be 12.5 percent higher than in the fourth quarter of this year. the third monetary conditions are gradually easing, interest rates on the credit deposit market continued to decline, as well as short- and medium-term ofz yields. uh, long-term yields haven't changed much lending activity has picked up somewhat. although still subdued, uh, mortgages are recovering the fastest. but mainly due to preferential programs, unsecured consumer lending also began to grow corporate lending is recovering

. in a situation of increased uncertainty, the savings mood remains strong, despite the gradual decrease in the yield on deposits, the funds of the population remain in banks. e, at the same time, the share of term deposits is decreasing, and current accounts, which are the most liquid part of savings, are growing and they can be quickly redirected to consumption when sentiment changes, a few words about the balance of payments and the exchange rate of the ruble in the new conditions of sanctions and restrictions on the movement of capital, as well as the absence of a fiscal rule, the exchange rate has become more subject to fluctuations and is formed mainly by the current account, and for the monetary politicians. this means that inflation under the influence of the exchange rate also becomes more

volatile and, accordingly, can become more volatile. interest rates in the economy for keeping inflation on target if the current account contracts in line with our forecast from the third quarter and the exchange rate adjusts to it, then its disinflationary impact will be smoothed out. as for the risks for the forecast, we spoke about them in detail in a press release. uh, in general, it can be noted that there are three main sources of uncertainty. on the forecast horizon. these are external factors, risks from the geopolitical situation and the global recession. fiscal policy and changing propensity to savings. the further trajectory of the key rate will depend on how the balance of risks develops for our target. uh, the trajectories of

reaching the inflation target in 2024 in accordance with our revised forecast. uh, and taking into account today's decision, the average for the year. the key rate this year will be 10.5 10.8% per annum. hmm. this corresponds to a value by the end of the year in the range of 7.4 dash eight percent. next year 6 1/2-8.5%. and in the twenty-fourth year, six dashes 7% per annum the situation, which is characterized by a series of processes that are multidirectional in their impact on inflation, the economy, requires from us more flexibility in decision-making and more attention to cooperative information. thank you for your attention.

thank you colleagues, let's move on to questions, but please, do not forget, uh, to introduce yourself and name your publication, and the first question is reta, please. thank you so much. e, good afternoon dear colleagues and rita shpilevskaya, tass agency, and today's decision of the central bank was unexpected even by the most courageous analysts predicted 150 basis points. and would like to know what decisions were on the board's table and retain or potential for further rate cuts this year. thank you. thank you. we discussed three options in detail. uh, eight eight and a half and nine and a half uh, nine percent nine percent, and the potential is uh, for further rate cuts on hmm uh , the medium term remains and we showed this in our average key rate forecast, if you look at the trajectory, then it is uh ,

is gradually decreasing, but everything will depend on of incoming data, as i said, the situation is not definitely a lot of multidirectional alternating factors, so we, uh, will adjust monetary policy in such a way that by the twenty-fourth year we will return to four percent, but of course, we will respond to all the incoming information on emerging trends. please, nastya, please. hello savelyeva anastasia interfax can you tell me what parameters of the new budget rule are currently being discussed. do you agree with the promotion? price cut-off there conditionally up to 60 dollars per barrel and with the binding of new rules to production and export and the second question. hey, i can't help but ask. and how do you feel about the decision of the authorities, and not to give permission to foreign participants to sell

russian subsidiaries here, will you support this and uh, do you agree that, but it is necessary to introduce management in foreign subsidiaries of uh, banks, and then. uh, who will manage the state bank, as suggested by some deputies and the central bank may be some state structures. we are currently discussing with the government ministry of finance. um. hmm, maybe the fiscal rule mechanism. we support the renewal of the budget rule, of course, it will probably be modified in our opinion. this is an important mechanism that ensures the stability of the economic parameters of the budgetary parameters of budget expenditures. regardless of what happens with the oil and gas situation, but the specific parameters before they are officially announced by the ministry of finance of the government. they would not like to comment on that. e hmm the work of

russian daughters, foreign banks, a and permission to sell them. this decision is actually taken by the government commission. we participate in it and, uh, these decisions will be raised each time individually, but of course, that factor is taken into account here. uh, in what way uh hmm what is the relation to the subsidiaries of our russian companies abroad, as far as external management is concerned, and our position is that if hmm but foreign uh, russian subsidiaries are foreign banks, and according to our legislation, these are russian banks, if they comply with all the established standards normally work with clients carry out calculations and no external controls need to be introduced, in our opinion. uh, the basis for this is currently not. please, u dimitri. i have two questions.

first 150 basis points. it's still quite a lot and the signal is strong and it's obvious that the cbr had information on the table that the market didn't have. can you tell me what do you know what the market doesn't know? yes there on what was the main factor that determined the rather abrupt decision and the second question. do i understand correctly that in the new forecast there there is no such figure, of course, it has already been laid down, at least the stagnation of the world economy for 23 years. as for the fifty basis points of e , we did not rely on any information that is unknown to the market, we relied on the information that is known to the market, and hmm, we see this also from current inflation, and it was very important for us that e in dynamics hmm uh, current uh current hmm current

growth rate. price cuts are already underway for a wide range of goods. uh, plus inflation expectations have dropped significantly and they were about the same as last year. yes already on m-m. uh, for the start of last year and beyond. if you look, they are already approaching the levels where they were in the late 18th and early 19th centuries. yes, that's why we revised the forecast. if you have seen, we always refer, but we make a decision not only on the basis of the analysis that comes in fact. data, yes, but also on the forecast, we and our forecast, on inflation, also quite significantly, has changed. now we've downgraded it. uh, range. uh, so i must say that after the release of hmm the latest data on inflation inflation expectations, and the opinion of

expert analysts also began to decline. e, to converge or change in the direction of a greater reduction in the key rate. uh as far as hmm uh the risk of a global recession stagnation, there really is uh, the risk exists. we take into account. what is what is risk? well, here, uh, aleksey borevich, can comment on what exactly we have laid in terms of external conditions and the development of the world economy to deepen. here are the topics, i probably will not. we will have a report in a week on monetary. politicians there will describe this in a little more detail, but on a qualitative level, dmitry is right and, uh, should we call this stagnation? this is a matter of taste, but what is included in the forecast is that the growth rate of the world economy is below the long-term trend, this is so dilya please i

also want to ask you a question about today's decision, but still it was really quite sharp and you mentioned. today, the word deflation already, does this mean that the central bank has become more significant the subject is not to consider deflation, but in their forecasts and lay it, most likely. and as uh, it's likely that there will be more uh, probable deflation than a runaway inflation. and, do you expect that we will still have deflation in july and august, and possibly in september , traditional. thanks ugh first. i did say disinfection factors, disinfection risks. this is a decrease in the rate of price growth. here, deflation is a decrease in prices, yes. or, as we call negative. you're just the center but real

price reduction. and we do not see any such trend. we do not see and i will repeat the variation again. we talk about this all the time. uh , deflation is still, uh, a steady decline. its price must be measured and it must be looked at. e on indicators of annual inflation annual inflation. we are still at the level of double-digit uh figures, and the price reduction is in a certain week of the month. this is a fairly common situation with us. we are usually familiar with the fact that we have price cuts when fruit prices go down. vegetable products, but this time we have a decrease in inflation in june, a decrease in non-inflation of the general hmm er the general price index, and it was largely related, and i repeat again, we remain on this point of view. uh, with uh, a significant price correction after a very significant strong rise in prices for february in

march, but we do not see any. the emerging trend of sustainable deflation and the next question is online and alexandra wald project life invest sasha please hello u i have such a question that is quite popular now banks and brokers are introducing new commissions for storing and purchasing currencies of the complexity of international transfers. i think that you are well aware of this, and what scares people now, in general, what are the risks? ugra, what about storing currency in the account, and here are directly specific questions that are often asked, can dollars in russia fall under sanctions, is it possible that in russia it will be impossible to buy or sell dollars at all and can banks somehow way to freeze dollars in the account in the same way as it was with stocks? well, what are risks, if suddenly nrd gets under e, excuse me

on rd nc will get. we are under sanctions, which in general can be problematic for citizens to store currency. thank you so much. thank you very much, but, to be honest, it is not us who have already imposed sanctions on the use of the dollar in russia, and the most severe option is what can be seen in banks that have fallen under sanctions. um, there are difficult calculations, transfers and so on. uh, so uh, of course, uh, here uh, hmm have foreign exchange deposits. uh can be risky getting banks, and under this kind of sanctions, uh, and so hmm here, of course, uh people companies. we need to take this into account. by the way, many companies really take this into account and transfer their assets, not only companies, by the way, people transfer their assets to safer, more reliable

forms of assets. and if it's not the ruble, then the currency of friendly countries. hmm. and you had another question. eh? uh, could it be that in russia it will be impossible to buy a dollar? uh, well, you know, even in the most apocalyptic, if i may say scenarios complex scenarios. uh, cash dollars will circulate in our country, because uh, well, i can only name one figure for us uh hmm under our estimate e cash uh, cash foreign currencies dollars and euros in the hands of the population are only about 85 billion dollars and now banks can sell to buy this currency, so here. and, of course, the appeal to personal currency, it will be as regards the ncc nsd. and nsd has already applied some sanctions against nsd and other banks. we always consider this risk

sanctions, so we are conducting a and e, we are stimulating the policy of devolutization. there should be a devolutization and a reversal in many respects of the balance sheets of banks once again, if not in rubles, then in a friendly currency. please, julia last row. thank you so much. my name is julia starostin. i represent the bell and i would like to submit a question. uh, about the budget rule. i understand that the discussion is ongoing and it is too early to talk about the parameters, but i will allow myself to ask you to lift the veil regarding the sterilization of the currency according to new the budget rule, after all, if you want to neutralize the impact on the ruble, the liquidity of purchases of foreign currency in reserves. some kind of sterilization mechanism is needed. could you please elaborate that you are discussing currency transactions here, not liquidity in the banking system or open market transactions. and also, if you will,

we have entered the third quarter. and uh, please tell me if you fix the occurrence of shortages in the labor market. oh, not on the market for goods and services, but about the labor market. i would like to clarify. uh, what are your forecasts about the situation in the labor market for autumn. thank you so much. as for the budget rule, how does it work? at the beginning of the budget? uh takes from exporters. ah, rubles. yes, in this way these rubles are withdrawn from the economy. and when does currency transactions take place. we, in fact, mirror these operations for the ministry of finance, then these rubles are returned to the economy. this is how we sterilize. therefore, yes, a foreign exchange operation, if, uh, a budget rule is introduced, then, most likely, this kind of foreign exchange operation. uh, should be alexei borisovich if you want,

i’ll just clarify for unambiguous reading that this is the meaning of the currency part of the operation. according to the budget rule, it is precisely connected with the fact that, at the expense of e, the purchase of foreign currency for additional rubles for rubles that are collected in the form of additional income. to return rubles to the economy, that is, the very operation to buy currency in the budget rule is the operation that neutralizes the effect of the budget rule in terms of the impact on monetary aggregates, so take some additional actions definitely not necessary. as for the possible shortage of goods? yes, of course, certain products have disappeared from our market, brands have disappeared and so on, but uh, we see that substitute products are coming. it is clear that other brands of other e-e manufacturers. if we 're talking about consumer goods, well, hmm, this

process will uh continue. well, here's some systemic problem. we don't see now. here, regarding the labor market for the fall. and as i said now. indeed, the situation, but stable calm uh and unemployment on historical levels. but of course, the situation on the labor market will largely be determined. uh, the speed of structural transformation, what 's under that again, keep in mind, some enterprises will cut output to optimize employment nearby. here, either new enterprises will appear, or those enterprises that will need employment, but, because they will find niches in the domestic market, there will be such a flow of labor. it will, of course, be reflected in overall unemployment figures. uh, when people are temporary looking for work. uh, so it's really important for us to watch right now. here on this situation, not only on general indicators,

but also on how vacancies behave. yes, what is the demand for labor in other sectors, and here, of course, questions may arise with the need to retrain people from new tasks. uh, there are some very important government programs here. but , therefore, here much will depend on the structural restructuring of some kind of quantitative forecasts on this topic. we don't give. next question online elvira zainullina news agency tatars inform please hello elvira with what questions i have two questions for you the first question of the pandemic the key rate was set to 4.2% of the current situation in the economy, it is hardly easy, and therefore we are very interested. what is the red line for reducing the key rate for the bank of russia in the current conditions and the second question. well, it's not a secret that this year there is a good grain harvest, do you see the risk of food deflation in the country in the fall

and how the monetary policy will react, if this is real will happen, thank you. as far as the food price reduction pro in the fall, that's possible and a good harvest and is a disinflationary factor, uh, that will help keep inflation down, but uh, fluctuations in food prices. this is a common thing with us and within the framework of standard seasonality. e hmm that's not the factor that affects monetary policy. uh, because monetary credit policy. uh, it reacts to, uh, stable factors of inflation, when deviations from inflation are due to stable factors and can affect, among other things, inflationary expectation on spillovers, and fluctuations in food prices are still hmm a factor that is reflected in the current price level, but these are usually one-time, one-time

such temporary effects, as for the first. i would like to begin with the following, we really m-m compare the situation with a pandemic in many aspects, but in fact, these are two different crises, because during a pandemic there are pandemics. mm pandemina crisis could be called such a cyclical crisis, when at the beginning there was a shock demand and the pledge of down due to the fact that people could not simply consume. eh, the way they consumed, and we lowered the rate precisely to push this demand a and the demand recovered very quickly and even faster than our expectations, but then problems began to appear, and the offers turned out to be longer. uh, all these logistics production chains are breaking them. it had an impact on the fact that it just grew, and the supply

of goods did not grow accordingly. and it poured out just like that. increasing inflation hmm in the second half of uh, 21 and the unwinding of inflation expectations. now, after all, there was a crisis, uh, structural and uh, in many ways. e, catalyzed by shocks to the country of supply, and at the same time, the potential of the economy is reduced and the rate cut, even a very large one, will not be able to. we compensate the effects to the same extent as we did in 1920, so we are watching very carefully. what exactly is happening with consumer demand and to what extent, its dynamics corresponds to the dynamics of supply. uh and compare directly uh, these two episodes. may be not worth it, while e you said about the red lines, and there are no red lines for the solution of the delivery not from below or

from above. hmm and the rate will be e. uh, get out on the basis of the trajectory that should ensure the return of inflation to the target in the twenty-fourth year, and colleagues, please, olga hello olga galadze often investor investment adviser my question concerns the restoration of the pace of lending to the population now the population. as you already said, it has come to a savings model of behavior, but for the economy it is essential to maintain good lending rates. the question is whether the central bank sets itself goals in terms of the timing of the restoration of lending to the levels of the twenty- first year, and if they do, then in this case, to what extent the central bank assesses the current level of the interest rate as sufficient in order to reach such levels of lending rates, but then what you

say set a goal. uh, at some level of credit. this is a different regime of monetary policy. this is credit targeting. we still have inflation targeting, and inflation hmm uh affects uh, and lending performance definitely, but also other indicators, that is, credit deposit mechanism definitely affects. this is an element of transmission, but specific indicators for lending. uh, in terms of lending. we do not set ourselves the main thing for us is the inflation forecast and we make a decision based on our own. inflation forecasts of the trajectory that is necessary in order to return it to the goal alekseevich i can only add that, uh, yes, of course, the credit component is part of transmission mechanism of monetary credit policy. it is very important if its part of the credit channel is the most effective channel, especially in the current

conditions e, but it is not an end in itself and, ultimately, the loan and its contribution to the money supply and, accordingly, the money supply under the influence of both credit and other factors , including the budget, as it were, the situation with the balance of payments. it, uh, should eventually grow at the rate that will give us 4% inflation. politics is no different. colleagues next question online evgeny written by bloomberg zhenya please hello you have discussed with the government about the possibility of a weakening of the ruble ah. you have come to some kind of consensus, after all, it is possible that the ministry of finance will intervene in the currencies of friendly countries. if so, what exactly ? and the second question. what is the status of claims for the return of international reserves. and if it's possible

a small third, you said that imports began to recover according to our estimates, but based on data here is russia's foreign trade partners who publish such data in may, imports moved to a resolution and increased by 17%, a month. uh, well, this recovery is more about consumer goods. can you please share your ratings. err regarding the recovery of imports and are imports exceeding consumer goods? last year's thank you thank you for the course, but here our position is unchanged. we believe that the rate should be floating; you cannot switch to the rate targeting mode. eh, we don't deny the possibility of foreign exchange interventions is about impossible and with a floating rate. uh, but within the budget rule, so that's where our position is. uh, yes. intervention is admissible, and in

what instruments of a friendly currency? uh, any other tools? it's more of a prerogative. ah, the government. e, here, well, we have such a discussion going on. and as for the status of lawsuits regarding the defrosting of wind turbines. we are a complex process. we are at the stage of their preparation and import. uh, imports really after ta after a sharp drop uh, began to recover, but it began to recover consumer imports of signs of recovery in investment intermediate imports, until we see as to the data. uh we, publish disclose data on a quarterly basis. we have imports in the second quarter as a whole imports of goods and services in the second quarter. uh, dropped by

22% compared to the first quarter, and the year of the year, probably, yes, 22% and uh, hmm, these are stubborn indicators. uh, we understand that while uh, the price of imports for transportation insurance grew world prices, and hmm probably led to the fact that the physical volume of imports fell a little more. uh, do alekseevich let me add a little bit about foreign exchange interventions, you need to understand that, again, based on the question that we already answered earlier, that when there is a purchase of foreign currency as part of the operation according to the budget rule, then those rubles that were withdrawn from it, which it already had, respectively, additional money supply. as a result, this the operation does not create inflationary pressure. and if the operation to buy currency is carried out by the central bank independently, yes, and this practice really was like that. there in the

2000s, many other central banks. this is also carried out periodically, as a result, the central bank adjoins the economy with new e-money, which create inflationary pressure and, as a result, real exchange rates. yes, nominal exchange rates are not weakening, but real exchange rates are. it will still get stronger. it's just that this strengthening will happen for higher inflation in the country. so colleagues, please, andrey good afternoon andrey ostroukh agency, reuters i have a few questions first. here we are now talking about budget rules, does this mean that the central bank can start an operation within the framework of the budget rule before the end of the year, when it is adopted, that is, will the central bank buy the currencies of, say, friendly countries, and the second question, but about inflation and parallel import. please tell us how you see the impact of parallel imports on prices, a how much this can spur inflation and if

the nominal ruble exchange rate will fall. could this mean? that valuable manufacturers will raise prices again, because the ruble exchange rate will be weaker, and one clarifying question, did you receive anything about hsbc and expobank? central bank statement, and what will these banks think about this deal? thank you with regard to our operations in the foreign exchange market under the budget rule, if it is introduced this year, we are, of course, ready, if it is introduced we are ready to conduct these operations are within the budget rule. the only thing is the parameters of these operations. mm. we will announce only after this decision is made under the most budgetary rules, but certainly before these operations begin to take place. we're going to be predictable here. but what will we buy? it depends on the ministry of finance, because we

will do these operations on behalf of the ministry of finance and tools. what will be determined by the government here, as regards the impact of parallel imports on inflation, we see somewhat differently. we believe that, on the contrary, parallel imports will have a disinflationary effect, because the supply of goods on the market in russia will grow, and therefore, uh, there will be a more likely disinflationary effect. uh, alexey pavlovich, you want to comment on hmm and swing courses about correct imports. actually, there is nothing to add. that is, it was you who formulated your question that parallel imports are more expensive than the similar imports that were before. yes, but now we need to compare not with past situations. and with the fact that just a sentence in a new reality distracts us in a new reality, in parallel, infra certainly increases the offer and, accordingly, is disinformation . actually a

very good question. thank you so much. ah, probably, uh, think about it, now u should. so, uh, the exchange rate changed very much and in one direction and in the other, and, probably, those exchange rate levels that we observe there in june and july yet, well, they are definitely not transposed into prices and in full volume and, probably, not even far from all companies, they transfer some kind of business plans, that is, in general, the expectation that the business has something that is at a new equilibrium, it will be found on some e, other level, respectively, if, uh, there is some kind of reverse movement in the course, then this will not create additional sustainable pro-inflationary pressure. but this e will quickly exhaust the temporary one-time factors associated with the effect, the transfer of the course, and we will see it sooner. here is the steady sustainable growth rate that

now a little blurry. uh, here is the effect of the transfer of the fastening that happened from uh from march to them and according to the deal through bessie and expobank, we have not received such statements by agreement. next question online igor lavrenkov business publication avant-partner, kemerovo and how much, according to the bank of russia, the socio-economic situation in the regions began to differ due to sanctions pressure, which of them began to lose more, who feels quite stable, but really the right question . at our situation is different in different regions. eh, this is largely due to the structure of the economy, not in many ways and almost as a whole is connected with the structure of the economy in certain regions, for example, in the northwest.