tv Fakti RUSSIA24 July 22, 2022 4:00pm-4:22pm MSK
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various payments to management will negatively affect the financial stability of banks, whether the central bank justified these fears and the third question related to npfs and pension areas. you have always been in favor of a more thoughtful and conservative approach, and in terms of investing pension savings and npf reserves, and now, since a large number of investors have left the markets. increasingly, more and more often it turns out, and more and more often, there is a proposal to invest pension savings in various a projects. tell please, have you changed your mind about this? do you think it's necessary to expand, uh, the tools and increase the risks. uh, three retirement funds investment on this one. everything, thanks. thank you, regarding, ah. sales
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of russian subsidiaries of foreign banks, uh, if negotiations are going on anyway, i think you need to even get permission from the government commission beforehand, because the likelihood of obtaining these permissions is small, let's say. and as for the analysis. hmm, and the state of m-m financial condition of banks, indeed banks are currently not reporting. yeah, uh, but we're thinking about how they should start disclosing . and as we talked about the balance of payments. you also believe that banks should be transparent to their customer depositors. e for your partners. oh, and this issue is now being actively discussed. in what format, when to start disclosing, so that banks start disclosing their financial statements. well, this is probably a qualitative assessment after all, and the banks, and it's better to have passed this crisis. period than we expected and output
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at the moment that the systemic capitalization of the banking sector in the systemic capitalization of the banking sector. not necessary. at the beginning, i personally thought that in february in march, because the financial shock to the financial sector was of such magnitude that, despite the previously created buffers, despite the achieved financial stability, such a systemic capitalization of the bank would be required. we do not see a need for this now, but for individual banks, the owners may need help. e in order to improve e the situation in banks, and we gradually want to get out of regulatory easing, we see that banks are not already ready for this all at once, but, nevertheless, gradually do it. and what about dividends? uh, yes, some banks pay dividends. our position was, if uh banks are in a good state, and
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at the same time they do not enjoy regulatory relaxations, they can pay dividends, but indeed some banks. they do not enjoy the regulatory easing that we have presented. and in principle, even here they can afford to pay dividends and the third question was about pension funds. a very good question too. ah really hmm a lot of proposals that pension funds began to invest more actively more widely to promote economic restructuring. of course, you are wonderful, but for us as for the regulator. problems of safety of investment reliability. e pension savings, it is a priority. yes, you can look at some may be an extension of the toolkit, but not to the detriment. uh, here's reliability and safety retirement savings is a priority. one, in order to, well, we really lack a class of institutional investors and we need to more
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actively develop all types of collective investments of a private equity fund. uh, look at their regulation. we talked about the tax benefits that should be possible for this institutional form of investment. hmm , direct collective investment. of course, we need to develop. and the next question is online elizaveta vereshchagina world of belarus, please elizaveta please ask questions. we have two questions. in recent months, the death rate of business has increased in the country, and in our region, also tell us whether you think that the measures taken to support entrepreneurship are sufficient and whether new mechanisms are being prepared. eh, and how do you generally assess the prospects for the business climate in our country. and you have repeatedly said that you will not seek to reduce inflation, at any cost. what
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inflation trajectory are we now willing to allow, given that credit must remain available and is it possible decrease in inflation soon after, or rather, an increase in inflation soon after its decrease, and what then will be the monetary credit policy? thank you as for the mortality of the business, but really the exit to legal entities, the closure of legal entities this year has increased compared to 21, but here, probably, one cannot judge simply by the data of the year of the year, because compared to, for example, the twentieth year . e in the twentieth year, the number of legal entities closed more during the pandemic. yes, compared to closing, but here, uh, it’s even more important, probably not, not the speed
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of closing legal entities at the same time the emergence of new legal entities and the expansion of the scale of their activities, because structural adjustment will really mean that they will reduce output of some enterprises, maybe even close others should expand release to be created. and the new new companies, as for, and the business mood hmm, they are very different, there are different indicators. we also have our indicator. we measure business moods question. but he has shown some improvement in the last few months. yes, an optimistic signal for inflation. yes, we really e argue that in terms of structural adjustment. and after a sharp jump in inflation, there may be a period of increased inflation for some time. it may deviate from our target for next year. i repeat we see
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uh, the inflation forecast is five dash seven percent. that is, it is above our our goal and at 4%. hmm yes , some periods. maybe it's inflation. uh, or is there just to rise for us it is very important to watch this under the influence. one-time factors or this is a steady increase, if you are a steady increase we can and will respond with a rate in order to bring inflation back to the target of 4%, because after all there is confidence in price stability. this is the most important factor, including the reduction of long-term interest rates on loans. with high inflation, there are no affordable long-term loans. therefore, price stability has been and is a priority for us, colleague, please, maria, yes. hello maria slobodyanskaya, russia 24 in a row
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liberated territories, for example, the kherson zaporozhye regions, the ruble has already been put into circulation. and when can we expect that the ruble will become a full-fledged currency in these and other territories of the liberated ruble. really. e, walks in these territories nearby along with the hryvnia, it is difficult for me to speak of some terms. colleagues, please, margarita margarita mordovina rbc i will have a question regarding the ncc. and in june, when we came under sanctions, you proactively recommended that banks reduce their foreign currency positions in the ncc did the banks follow these recommendations, how much their foreign exchange positions decreased over this month after the recommendation, and, in principle, the open foreign exchange position of banks has somehow changed. after we activated devaltization. thank you we see the bank of russia sees
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positive dynamics in the process of reducing e, the value of foreign currency balances in ncc nsd's accounts, mm and hmm in the banking sector as a whole. uh, we have a long open currency position. she has grown a little for the last month, but she is smaller than in march. why is this happening, but because uh hmm the daglutization of liabilities is going on much faster than the privatization of assets, yes, that is, if you have long-term foreign currency loans and so on, a lot of work is required here, perhaps in terms of conversion into ruble assets, but in any case, privatization in the passive part it happens faster than in the active part, and we see that it is not only under our, as it were, influence, but also under the influence. unfortunately, the sanctions, a banks a a continue to
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actively take measures under the evaluation of their balance sheets, they understand that this is a risk, uh, despite the fact that we have temporarily introduced uh, regulatory easing on the currency position uh for banks that exist under sanctions, but we gave them the opportunity to have these easing, but they must have exit plans from uh, this currency position, because uh, we have no intention of extending. here is the regulatory relaxation after january 1, 2023. the following question is written from the newspaper kurskaya pravda from oksana shevchenko a in the last few months the central bank took a diametrically opposite decision on the key rate, and from a sharp increase to a decrease to the level of last year. do you think that such decisions of the bank of russia mislead the population and farms, which are already in conditions of high
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uncertainty, or maybe it’s worth immediately lowering the key rate to the minimum values of 2-3% yes, indeed, while the uncertainty is very high and the scale of changes in external conditions are unprecedented, but even in these conditions, in in the face of such uncertainty, we consider it very important to preserve. er, the key elements of stability, namely price and financial stability, so our decision on the rate yes, a sharp increase - this was dictated primarily in order to restore financial stability and then reduce it in order to ensure a smooth decrease in order to ensure price stability, in our opinion. these are key business elements for business planning. a and well, if you say
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to immediately reduce the key rate, uh, to two or three percent, what would happen? ah, most likely, what would happen is that people would instantly withdraw money from deposits. and i have already said that now people have transferred funds from time deposits, where they are more secured. yes, in current accounts savings accounts from which you can easily spend. yes, that is, it shows that people. e are more ready to withdraw money, reduce their funds in banks and direct them to consumption. and if slavka would be 2-3% on deposits with double-digit annual inflation, of course, people would be the first turn. uh, they would go in to buy goods and services so that money would not depreciate on deposits, and there would be no more goods at that time. with such a fall, including imports, and we would get, but just a very unwinding inflation and no price stability, then there would be no question,
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therefore, of course, such drastic actions to sharply reduce the minimum e-e rate at the rate they would simply lead to an increase in inflation to the point that people's savings would depreciate. and i must say that the loan from this would not affordable, because when banks issue loans, yes, a short-term loan. they focus more on the key rate, but in long-term loans, they focus on what inflation will be and , of course, with a two-three percent key rate, for example, two-digit inflation, loans will be and interest rates on loans will definitely be two-digit. er, so it wouldn't have such a positive effect. but uh, just our actions on the rate to reduce inflation. they lead to hmm being adequately available. uh, long-term loans for colleagues, please, evgeny penultimate row popov evgeny investvich a little
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about the labor market, even though you said that you do not comment on unemployment, but still you said that the labor market will change. as a matter of fact, we get the qualifications of workers will change, and how this will eventually affect wages. strictly speaking on the demand for inflation on monetary policy. and the second question. he's such a bit of a conspiracy theorist, given that today, uh, the interest rate is like this. sharply reduced and is it due to the fact that let's say, uh, the geopolitical situation. uh, now it 's tied to limiting, say, russian oil exports, plus the introduction of an oil price ceiling, as the central bank actually evaluates this, and uh, well, in general, like how the central bank evaluates it. clear. well, with regard to the labor market. uh, here's the restructuring of the economy. it will, of course, be accompanied by structural changes in the labor market for some specialties. mm,
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others will be more in demand a little less. like these ones there will be movements and salaries will also be very different. yes, in different sectors where the deficit will be visible, by the way, after the pandemic. do you remember when e remote services. eh, very actively began to develop. the shortage of it specialists, yes, cybersecurity, and so on, has simply sharply manifested itself. and this is also an example of structural adjustment. uh, how this will affect overall unemployment rates - it depends on, uh, how quickly on the one hand the work force will leave and be released from those sectors, which or enterprises are squeezing and moving over those that are growing there and the speed of this will also depend on how special your profession is. so knowledge and specialization will be in demand. does it need to be retrained? how long and of course, it's there a complex process, and therefore it is very difficult to do a quantitative measurement. but
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this is this process. uh, u will definitely happen , it will need to be monitored. a and. uh, of course, the total aggregate unemployment figures. they will affect inflation and we we will take this into account in monetary and credit policy, with regard to geopolitics and the possible push for oil exports. but if i don’t even want to talk now, it’s really unrealistic, right? ah, but if it is introduced in one form or another, in my opinion. this, uh, will obviously lead to an increase in world prices. and as far as i understand, we still, uh, will not supply oil to those countries that set this price limit, uh. yes, on, but, nevertheless , our oil products will be reoriented to those countries that are ready with us interact and hmm therefore, and since it
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will occur against the backdrop of growth. uh, world oil prices. yes. uh, even with a possible reduction in quantitative indicators - this, well, may have, uh, a smaller effect on all indicators. let's just say that you are aware of the balance of payments. of course, this is more of a question for the government. i rather commented on what it might look like as an impact on macroeconomics. colleagues time is running out, and the last two questions. yes, natalia , please natalya zorodskaya vedomosti specifying, if possible, and one complete one. and about the budget rule, and in what currencies it is advisable to store additional oil and gas revenues according to the new design, and the question itself. e, now there is a discussion and preparation for the second reading
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of the draft law on electronic archives, but is it being discussed with the bank of russia now, what objections or proposals does the bank of russia have on this issue and what is the best option for digitizing bank documents in the form of the bank of russia and do you agree with it ? well, respectively, is it taken into account is it in the bill? thank you with regard to the budgetary rule, the expediency in which the government's assets will be kept, because the budgetary government will be within the framework of the budgetary rule. this is the accumulation of government assets, but this, of course, is a question for the government. uh, hmm we are ready to discuss this with them in a consultation mode. hmm well, the set of assets, let’s say, is not very large, about which you can store and, uh, you can also discuss the currencies of friendly countries, but here you need to look at stability. naturally these currency markets liquidity.
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all these parameters are taken into account when placing assets. as far as e- archives are concerned, in principle, we support unconditionally. e transfer from paper form to electronic form of all assets. we know the archives know from the side of banks how high the costs are precisely due to the storage of archives in paper form, in the final analysis, they are some kind of shares there. for loans, uh is included, so, of course, uh, the digitalization of everything is very important, we have created our own digitalization programs. we have digitized a lot of documents digitally and what hmm is allowed not to be stored not in digital form - no, not in paper form, we digitize, but about the specific details of the bill. if it will be necessary for him to clarify, i simply do not have information now. yes,
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nastya please, the last question. i have a question from my colleague tatyana chubasovana. it just ca n't connect. ah, you won't say, uh, this central bank always talks about the return of retail investors' confidence in the stock market. ah, but how much are we we know, but the decision of gazprom to refuse dividends greatly shook their confidence. they were upset and how to return me. this trust in connection with this decision, there may be some corporate actions, and the gazprom companies, e, allowed you to return this trust, for example, a buyback, shares and one more question. and what national indices is the central bank currently working on? thank you agree retail investor confidence is extremely important at the moment and steps will need to be taken to improve
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confidence of retail investors. uh, because there have been a lot of events right now that have had a negative impact on retail investor sentiment , including related external restrictions. it is difficult for me to compensate for some corporate actions on the part of gazprom, i will not do this, but certainly one of the elements that retail investors are counting on. this is the dividend yield. it certainly is. it will have to be taken into account. uh, when we're talking about getting retail investor confidence back. e as for national indexes. um, in principle, national price indices are very important to us. it is an important source of information on market prices. in conditions when we can no longer rely on global indices that were actively used , such a first index for wheat already exists and we are working.
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