the hero is now under sanctions restrictions, and other indicators will be lined up from this, uh. uh, dynamics characteristics. e economy, including the dynamics of gdp, including consumption and real incomes of citizens, so investment support is now probably the main central main central issue, but in general we expect that the decline in investment this year will be limited to about two percent . next year, it will remain half as much, that is, somewhere at the level of 1%, for example. further imports, uh the key issue of these posts, since the restriction of imports is one of the main, uh, tools, or rather levers in general, of the entire logic of the sanctions impact on our country. so, in general, if we talk about the dynamics of imports, they are now

at about 65-70% of the previous year. that is, at the peak, we had a drop in imports by about half. now the drop in imports is 1/3. that is, this difference was won back, but here the picture is significantly different. and if we talk about consumer imports. this is also a sign. uh, the revival of consumer demand. he practically recovered, which, of course, is also somewhat unexpected for many. uh, the result is a key role. here, of course, played uh, well, just like and since somehow new routes, and the most important thing is the permission of parallel imports, if we did not allow parallel imports, uh, the government and the decision of the president, then, of course, we would now had a completely different picture in the non-food market. eh, first of all household appliances and other goods. and so are consumer imports. it is somewhere

now in terms of the most important goods, somewhere three minus 3 - 5%, uh further u import of investment goods, uh, here it is much stronger. and this is somewhere around 17-20%, and this is quite natural, because we need to restructure investment imports. it doesn't work quickly. it's impossible. uh, there's design. there are orders for specific types of equipment. it all takes time. although here we see a recovery trend, although much slower a and hmm uh intermediate imports, including for chemical products for forestry products for a range of our industries. it means that he is somewhere to sleep -10%, and here are the figures that he just mentioned, and this is a priority import. i'm here. please pay attention to what we see, in fact, here quite quickly, the restoration processes of

import substitution that are taking place at the level of private business. generally. our imports have decreased by about 30%, i told you by a third, and the most important import is the so-called critical, which was made according to the estimates of the ministry of industry and trade. here it is reduced. we have about 11-12%, i have named these figures, that is, the rest of the imports. it has shrunk it, it is being filled now, which means it is being filled quite successfully, and by our own e manufacturer and this is one of the sources. uh, that's the positive dynamic i was talking about. so the next moment is probably the most problematic of all, and it also requires. uh, such rather intensive support measures, and this is the situation with exports, which is divided into two parts related to oil exports and energy more broadly, if we take the coal industry, which we have come

under imbargo and, as you know, the europeans. now decides. but what to do, because they are well aware that the situation with the provision of energy resources to europe in other countries is at an extremely low level at a critical level, and winter is ahead, and so on and so on, we see prices, now everything is happening with valuable gas in the confusing market and hmm uh in other markets these restrictions peak at autumn. and that's why we've got to watch this for now. hmm, keep a close eye on this. how the situation will develop, and as for the non-raw materials non- energy voyage, here, opposite the picture, it is already more or less clear. and thanks to the sanctions, uh, sanctions efforts, we lost the markets of europe, this hmm, of course, led to quite serious restrictions related to, uh, supplies, speaking in numbers, the supply of non- commodity non-energy exports decreased by more than 13%, and we we believe that the year-on-year

reduction will be about 17%, and as is known in the world, uh, markets, not that they will not voluntarily yield even to our friendly countries. so everyone is already fighting for the markets, so the question of hmm e support is not from his non-energy exports along with investments. now is also such an important element of our anti-crisis program and the last sixth trend that i wanted to say is very important in fact for it. often overlooked, but i need to. uh, now i'll even explain why, but nevertheless it is key this is a structural decline, we have a structural contraction that is happening in our economy, since sanctions restrictions operate differently in different sectors and, in general, can be distinguished among manufacturing industries. one group is

where we have a. it is more than 50% now, and the auto industry practically got there, and some other types of production, that means for the auto industry, uh, mmm . uh, on instructions from the president, on your instructions , a prepared program, which is actually a program for restructuring the automotive industry and inscribing new conditions, and there is, uh, a fairly wide group of engineering industries. this includes manufacturers. e, mobile machinery equipment special machinery and so on, where the decline is about 10 to 18%. here in the same group. i would attribute the production, which is somewhere around 9-10%, to mainly chemical production, which also faced resource restrictions with import supplies.

that's the average drop in inmy. that is, if we take here are the maximum levels, and february from filmed season only 4.5%. these two groups, uh, these are the groups where the decline is, well, it's about 2-3 sometimes four times deeper m. uh than what other industries have today. this applies primarily to three related to, uh, hmm providing consumer demand for the intermediate demand industry, some situation there, either minor or there at all. uh, he 's completely missing these two groups of hmm growths. uh, this is the auto industry, uh, and those who are associated with automakers and you can put or chemistry constitutes such a zone of potential risk for the release of employees in the second half of this year. this means that we do

not see any significant signs of a deterioration in the situation on the labor market, however. there are risks of releasing employees or transferring them to different people, intermediate forms of part-time employment, uh, lowering wages, and forced release, and so on, somewhere the maximum number. eh, somewhere around 200-300,000 people. of course, we will cope with such volumes, but the regions should know. everything is here, of course, you can, apparently, to specially hold some kind of event and orient the governors. here is a picture of the situation, so that our colleagues in the regions analyze the situation, which is primarily in those sectors that are in their regions, which today are in such a zone. that kind of restrictions. and here is the general picture. eh, as i said just now, it is better than it seemed. and before, and if we sum up all these conclusions, about which i

just spoke about the trends, then i can. say that a this year, and, most likely, the results of the overall economic results, if we measure the dynamics of gdp , we will have a decline of less than 3%, somewhere around two with a small percentage next year. we have every chance to limit ourselves. under one percent you can't get minus 0.8% to minus 0.6%. and that creates a very good environment for, uh, growth as well. uh real incomes of the population and for the growth of budget revenues next year and respectively 24-25. well, for this, of course, we must fight. so what to fight. uh, the first one i already said is the key point. uh, it's an investment. we are completing a launch this year, or rather two of these rather large-scale ones. uh, can equal regulatory tools. eh, first of all. here, including with the help of a huge dmitrievich.

thanks to mitin, anton german played a positive role here . i would like to remind you that we have 36 projects currently under implementation, and before the end of the year we have to launch 25 projects. this agreement on the protection of investment capital encouragement. uh, with a total investment of almost a trillion rubles, 870 billion rubles. and at the same time, in accordance with the instructions president. we are now very active, but we are engaged in the introduction of the regional venetian standard, which is qualitatively changing the business climate in the regions. this work is in progress, but directly through observation and participation, and business russia and the rpr have 12 pilot regions, which last year. it was more or less a huge realization. thank you, just in moscow, because, as always, here moscow tatarstan acts as leaders and takes over. uh, practicing so many tools this year. uh, 33 more regions should enter e fully complete the implementation of this

standard, and next year hmm by in accordance with the age of 24, respectively, by order of the president, all 85 regions should enter there. this is also such a very significant factor that should be launched. and, of course, we need the third one. i'm here asking for instructions from the government. maybe we need today's instruction, but, taking into account the instructions of the president, which were given at the st. petersburg economic forum, taking into account your instructions, and the ministry of economic development, miss mintin and industry ministries worked out additional measures to stimulate investment, including working off. uh, industrial clusters are also one of the measures of the regime, which will promote the growth of investment, and then import substitution. now the president's order is coming out on this topic, we are working on the so-called large-scale pull projects. these are projects in the field of aviation

and shipbuilding. ah, the railroad. maybe the mood is there and so on and so forth, which will create a kind of framework for this whole line localization policy, uh, the hardware that makes up the frame. uh, in fact, the production industrial apparatus. we also need to add energy turbine engineering to a whole range of other m-m types of products, but, uh, these are more plots of the twenty- third year. and if we take the current year, then hmm, it is very important for us to support those import substitution processes that are already going into production. the ministry of industry and trade has developed a whole large program, and worked out the nomenclature. there are approximately 2,000 positions, of which 430 are currently in operation. positions. and it is very important for us, including i will talk about this, these proposals relate to the dispersion of money. these are the maintenance processes. here it is a

question, first of all, of allocating money, including money for the capitalization of the industrial development fund, which is now our main instrument for lending to these short programs. uh, import substitution is next. there, too, in connection with the instructions of the president, and there were also your instructions for this development of transport logistics corridors in accordance with the instructions of the president until 1 september. we need to approve roadmaps for the development of transport logistics corridors. in general, these roadmaps are ready to report that the ministry of economic development and the ministry of transport is doing a great job in identifying promising cargo flows along each of these corridors along the north-south corridor, along the corridor connected with the sound-sea basin and along the corridor to the east. and the ministry of transport for each

of them, taking into account these e-freight flows along each of the corridors, determined the bottlenecks, and and about the cost, and investments to eliminate these bottlenecks places on the horizon. uh, the twentieth. e until the age of 30. and it works now. she demands naturally. and here, too, i would ask for instructions. it requires some more additional steps. we need it is very important for us now to fully coordinate as well as these costs with these funds that are allocated within the budget up to 25 years of this work. she specifically held that we simply did not have uh, but financial university obligations, and in addition, we need to coordinate uh with those tools.