reported the press service of the russian embassy in the central african republic this morning , the head of the russian house, dmitry sergeevich bald, he tamgi, received an anonymous package that contained the substance of the still serious pravda and is currently in the main hospital of the city where the state of health, that is, time obeys. i will also add that exactly one day ago the last 130 french troops left the central african republic, this was reported in the ministry of armed forces of the fifth republic, the department explained this by the fact that the military mission no longer had an operational justification; the main contingent of french forces was deployed on the territory of the bangui airport. late the evening before, vladimir putin held a meeting with the permanent members. the security council discussed from everyone taught issues related to security and interaction with neighboring countries with a report delivered by minister of foreign affairs sergei lavrov

separately today, uh, consider current security issues in various directions for the country, and also talk about our interaction. e neighbors in a separate , very significant direction for us. now on our channel there is a live broadcast due to the central bank , please good afternoon. today we have decided to keep the key rate at 7.5% per annum. and the current rate of price growth is moderate and consumer demand subdued, however, uh, there have been recent signs of increased price pressures among pro-inflationary factors. i will highlight the increased inflationary expectations of labor shortages in certain sectors of the constraint. on side of proposals expansion of the budget deficit

deficit, as well as the deterioration of the terms of foreign trade, we will take into account the impact of these factors and the conduct of monetary credit policy. let me remind you. our goal is to return inflation to the target in 2024, and we keep the forecast for next year in the range of 5-7% uh, let's move on to the arguments of today's decision on the first situation with inflation. in november and early december, prices rose mainly due to one-off factors e, primarily indexation of housing and communal services tariffs, but the influence of factors that increase sustained inflation next year this trend will continue what are these facts? firstly, inflationary expectations of the company's population remain at elevated levels until they result in an increase in consumer activity due to the cautious attitude of the population towards large purchases and

savings behavior, but the situation may turn around. secondly, due to the increased e, shortage of personnel, the company 's labor costs increase. this is noticeable in the enterprises of the transport, logistics and construction. if salaries will grow at a rate higher than labor productivity. this can lead to additional growth. prices, through business costs, is another growth factor, costs associated with the adaptation of a business to changing conditions. e, the company continues to look for new suppliers, logistics routes and methods of payment to solve difficult issues related to the import of new equipment and the repair of existing production lines. costs. businesses to varying degrees will be carried over into end-user prices. finally, budget policy the ministry of finance has raised its estimate of the budget deficit from 0.9% to 2% of gdp for this year, we

took this into account when making today's decision, and we will reflect it in the forecast figures after the pivotal february meeting. e. now i can comment, both monetary and budgetary policies affect aggregate demand, if money flows through the budget channel grow, then to ensure price stability , it may be necessary to curb inflows through the credit channel, therefore, other things being equal, a looser budget policy means more tall the level of interest rates a few words about annual inflation in the coming months, it will continue to slow down from its calculation will come out. uh, the heaviest months of this year in terms of price growth, when inflation is very volatile, its annual indicator says little about price pressure,

since annual inflation was overloaded last spring with bags. it can drop even below four percent. but this will practically not characterize the dynamics of prices, here and now e in such situations, e, when making decisions, we are more guided by the forecast and current indicators of sustainable price pressure, cleared of the influence of one-off facts. the second about the economy, external trade restrictions continue to give in and cause for the company this month, they were added by the entry into force and the barrage of oil supplies, as well as the restoration of the price ceiling for it , their effects, we will clarify in the updated february forecast. business activity in october was recovering after a decline a month earlier, data

from an enterprise survey indicate continued growth and in november the business climate index of the bank of russia after the october decline, current estimates and business expectations regarding production and demand improved, especially in the service sector. speaking about investment activity, it can be noted that the slowdown in private investment is partly offset by the increase in states in the regional context, the largest increase in investment is observed in the far east, where the transport and logistics infrastructure is being actively built and modernized, its import capacity is increasing. through the vostochny ports is already a quarter higher than last year debottlenecking values ​​are of key importance for the restructuring of the economy. and detailed information on investment activity in our regions is given in the december report by the

regional economy. in consumer activity, regional heterogeneity is clearly manifested in moscow and st . we characterize it as restrained savings model of behavior of the population is preserved. the third monetary conditions generally remain neutral with ofz yields changing slightly after rising in september . at the same time, the slope of the curve became a little steeper, that is, the rates at its short end corrected downwards, while at the far end they remained unchanged. this reflects the persistence of increased geopolitical risks, heightened inflationary expectations, as well as an increase in government borrowing. in

general, lending conditions did not constrain credit activity. there was a high growth rate in corporate lending. in the mortgage , the issuance of unsecured consumer courts was restored. rates on deposits continued to adjust to the increase in yield, ofz, that occurred in september. this contributed to some inflow of funds for deposits. eh, the process of devaluation of bank balances has continued in recent months, and there is a change in the structure of demand for money. and instead of foreign currency for settlements in the treatment of investments and the formation of savings, it is increasingly used rubles. this was reflected by a significant increase in the ruble money supply m2, which many paid attention to. however, more informative is the broad indicator of the money supply m2x,

which also includes deposits and accounts in foreign currency, this indicator is growing at a rate not exceeding annual inflation. let me turn to the risks that could lead to a deviation of inflation from the baseline forecast. short-term risks have shifted towards pro-inflationary ones and their list has expanded . we still see risks of a more significant cooling of the global economy than our baseline scenario. although there has been recent evidence of a decrease in inflation, in some developed countries the risks of excessive tightening of monetary policy have decreased accordingly, the sanctions regime and the embargo and the ceiling affect the economy from the external conditions. prices for russian oil coincided with a fall in world prices for hydrocarbons due to a deterioration in the

outlook for the global economy. a long period of low prices or their additional strong decline could result in a sustained loss of income for exporters, escalating geopolitical tensions and tightening sanctions are hurting the prospects for russian exports and mean faster trade balance cuts, putting pressure on the steering wheel. an important group of risks is related to the situation on the labor market, and it is possible that the shortage of workers will continue to grow as a result. we may see not only historically low unemployment rates next year, but wage growth substantially outpacing the increase labor productivity. e, finally, a pro- inflationary risk may be a possible expansion of the budget deficit compared to the envisaged one at the moment, the group

of disinfection risks is less pronounced; they include the preservation or strengthening of the savings behavior of the population, as well as an increase in credit risks in the economy, which will lead to an increase in the cost of risks that banks include in lending rates, and in addition, in a situation of increased uncertainty, banks may impose even more stringent requirements on borrowers and collateral for loans. all this can cool down lending and, as a result, curb inflation and, in conclusion, our future decisions. the economy continues to adapt to ongoing changes, we will analyze information on how companies are adapting to new conditions. how consumer behavior is changing, their inflation expectations, as well as the dynamics of external conditions and the expansion of demand from the state, taking into account all the incoming data, the bank

of russia will determine the trajectory of the key rate in such a way as not to impede the structural transformation of the economy and ensure that inflation returns to the target near four percent in 2024. thank you for your attention. thank you, and colleagues, please move on to questions. uh, and please feel free to introduce yourself to name your edition. and i will sometimes help you nastya please. hello savelyeva anastasia interfax, you won’t say the absence of signals from the statement can still be interpreted, as it was last time, that perhaps further movement rates in different directions up and down, how much in general due to the increase in pro-inflationary risks that you note, and probably the tightening of monetary policy, that is, the transition of the e central bank from neutral, but to a moderately tight

monetary policy there in medium term. and one more question. e, you said that you will evaluate and take into account in the forecast the implementation of the embargo and the ceiling on the price of russian oil, but can you already now a evaluate indeed, this is a serious risk to reduce the economic activity in russia and can the situation be called a shock? thank you. we have given a neutral signal, which means that the next decision on the rate path will depend on the incoming data on what factors e will prevail e, pro-inflationary disinflationary, but as i already emphasized in our opinion about inflationary factors. uh, they prevail now not only in the medium term, but also in the short term . eh, so once again the movement of the rate will depend on the incoming data, it is possible to maintain the rate and increase it and reduce it if

the disinfection factor is realized, which we now consider to be less pronounced. as for the influence of the embard. uh, while it is difficult to evaluate, uh, and all its effects. we will try to do it in february. ah, at the february pivotal meeting, when will we update? the forecast will be more information, including the response to the russian side will be taken into account. this is in the month of february. colleagues, please ask me the next question. you don’t write pens for me, hello, the news agency from my stepanova i have a few questions, and the first one in the media wrote that the authorities are working on an installment plan for buying a home for some categories of citizens, how the bank of russia looks at this initiative. and when it can start working, if it is already being worked out, and the central bank has repeatedly

said that it will cut. uh, the influence of e so, well, toxic currency, including it was announced that there will be surcharges for e, loans to legal entities in toxic currency, could you tell us when it will work and is the central bank preparing any other mechanisms for reduction toxic currency on the balance sheets of russian banks and i also have the last question about the central bank deal and the opening of the ipb. and at what stage is it now ? is it clear already what will happen to the management of the otkritie bank, because so that there are messages in the media, that the management will leave this bank. thank you. thank you for the possible mechanisms of installment. uh, buying a home, uh we hmm in detail haven't discussed when the detailed offer will come unconditionally. we will deal with this. uh, that's

about it. hmm uh, reducing the share of the so-called toxic currencies on bank balance sheets. indeed , we have the opportunity to establish, e, differentiated premiums depending on the type of currency at the moment. we don't see the need to use . eh, such a toolkit. we will see how it will be, what will happen to the balance sheets of banks from their open currency position and, most importantly, the balance in currencies, because serious changes are taking place here now and, as necessary, when changing these mechanisms, as for the deal to sell the opening, it is at the final stage. er , we confirm our intention to complete this transaction before the end of this year. yes, dmitry , please, you indicated four

groups of risks in your speech, could you make it clear that you cannot evaluate them in terms of the likelihood of how they are realized, and in terms of weight as a potential stage, say on the horizon of six months, could you rank them like this by probability and by weight. ah, a lot depends on their combination, but we believe that they all require it. e attention. you are probably talking about inflationary risks certainly inflation expectations that e remain elevated, despite the fact that we have for several months, the current inflation. uh, inflation expectations were usually lower than actual inflation, but we see here that they still remain at an elevated level. this factor worries us, and others. which i also listed, of course, according to

the budget and external restrictions and the labor market, which we are now carefully watching. hmm, but they are. these are some. uh, their interaction the cumulative effect is always subject of discussion at the board of directors and collegial judgment on the overall impact of these risks. colleagues, please, rita mordovina margarita mordovin rbc i will have a few questions first related to the finance ministry's proposal to unify ofz payments so that foreigners can also receive them directly on demand, and not count as they are now. but the central bank does not support this proposal. at what stage is it now, and one more question about reporting, and your former colleague sergei shvetsov recently noted that it is necessary for companies to either disclose their financial statements or give

adequate explanations, but about why they do not disclose their financial statements, while controlling the content of such explanations, and sergei suggested that the central bank be assigned, among other things, how does the central bank feel about this initiative, is it ready to take on this controlling function and is it necessary to force disclosure at all to be explained in a directive mode and the last short question concerns the situation with the fund, from which supposed. pay compensation to the investor at what stage is its development now? thank you as for the proposal regarding the unification of the receipt of coupons on ofz bonds, we believe that this issue must be considered in conjunction with the need to ensure the interests of russian

persons whose assets were blocked in foreign jurisdictions in connection with the imposition of sanctions e, and hmm and therefore i want to emphasize that foreign persons in the russian legal system. were not deprived of the right to receive payments under ofz. they are credited really consider, type s but e funds of accounts, type c e hmm and it is possible to reinvest, including for a in the ofz market to pay taxes, payments of other commissions, therefore, it seems to me that this issue should be considered in a complex, what concerns? let me remind you that the decree of the government that gives the right to issuers, uh, not to disclose either part of the information, or all information, is valid until july 1. this is the position of the central bank that after july 1 it is necessary disclose information and the

procedure that applies should apply. yes, the current order. it does not provide any explanation or presentation of an explanation. but uh, after july 1 , we believe that the procedure should be in place when there are, there are possible restrictions on information disclosure, issuers notify the central bank if they do not disclose this information . disclosure, and we now we are working to see if it can be expanded. restrictions taking into account the sensitivity of information, but in general, our position is that we need to move on to a more complete disclosure of information, indeed an exception can be sensitive information, its list should not be very long, because obtaining information is fundamentally important for investors and we

expect on the development of the capital market and to ensure that investors can invest prices, of course. need to get back to normal disclosure of information once again may be subject to certain exceptions, but also compliance with these exceptions. they are explanations of individual issuers, namely compliance with these established exceptions. uh, can check the central bank, like uh. hmm now according to the order. this applies to the development of a compensation scheme, e partial compensation by the investor e of not received income through the sv e, the issue is difficult to work out, but so far there is no significant progress on this issue. ah, the next question from petersburg artemy smirnov newspaper, evening st. petersburg, please, good afternoon. thanks . hello. a bit of a nerdy question, but i think it's curious. look, according to

published data, in early november, the central bank lent commercial banks 1.4 trillion for this money. they mainly bought ofz, and by some accounts. thanks to this, the ministry of finance attracted a record amount of money, about one and two tenths of a trillion, at the end of november, including on november 16, a record was generally recorded. uh 823 billion and in one day. in early december, the picture repeated itself. yes, on december 5 there was another trillion. on december 7, the ministry of finance beat a very rare ruble of another 832 billion rubles. and we can probably assume, yes, that this is how the budget deficit is financed. well, this is between two questions. can we call this the russian option the amount of easing and secondly, how is the level of weakening of the ruble in this regard, the central bank admits that it is acceptable for itself thank you it really increased the ministry of finance

placement of the ufz, in the last month, and at the same time, the main expenses from the budget are also traditionally shifted to the end of the year, and the operations that we conduct repo transactions allow, uh, to support the liquidity of banks before they come, uh, the corresponding amounts of expenses from budget to them and this reduces the volatility of rates in the money market. and uh, this is not a unique situation. we did. uh, in the twentieth year or was it 21 when the ministry of finance was in the twentieth? yes, when the ministry of finance, uh, at the end of the year, borrowed enough funds, uh, and uh, banks used our lipo and repo. they returned almost everything at the beginning of the year. after the budget funds have arrived at the bank accounts and operations on - this is a return operation. well, in november, one 1.4 trillion was attracted, really

for a period of 1 month, banks. they returned these funds in december. they returned these funds in december. and in december they already borrowed a trillion, that is, a smaller amount, we do not expect that they will also reduce the amount of debt in january after the receipt of december expenses and the demand for these e, at the auction in january will be significantly lower, but repo operations differ from so -called quantitative easing programs both in form and in purpose. uh, under the program, the number of us easing the central banks are buying. er, the securities and the balance sheet structure of the central banks, it changes, if not irrevocably, then for quite a long time, until they start, uh, selling these securities. uh, carrying out the same operations, which, as i said, are returnable, in addition, they

can be stopped at any time and the quantitative easing program was used by others countries, when uh they could no longer lower the rate for this, and this was done in order to increase inflation zero. e. hmm repo transactions by the bank of russia they do not lead to a shift in monetary policy. and accordingly. uh, there's no effect on the exchange rate either. thank you for the last row. i also have two questions. first question. you today e in a statement according to the results of the bet, they said that economic activity in the fourth quarter did improve somewhat, hence the question. uh, what is your

forecast for uh, the fall in gdp for this year, will it be somewhere in the region of 2.500 or the central bank still lays down, but a more pessimistic assessment, and what will uh happen next year? will we keep within one percent and the second question. and you just said that in the spring annual inflation could drop below 4%. does this mean that the central bank admits that the inflation target can be reached as early as twenty third year, not twenty-four. thank you . what about gdp estimates for this year? uh, do you remember our uh, the last forecast we gave in october of three and a half percent, and according to our uh hmm under our gdp expectation uh, gdp growth will be close to the upper limit, that is, rather close to 3:00 percent, but certainly a lot depends on what will be the economic dynamics in november and december. uh, if it goes

well. uh, gdp could fall by less than three percent. e in this year. next year we forecast. uh, we will clarify in february, taking into account all the factors that are happening now , we will take them all into account and will clarify, updated data. let's give in february, with regard to the reduction of annual inflation, below 4% uh in the next year, this, perhaps in the spring, uh, this does not mean in general that we will go below the target, our forecast for the year as a whole is five dashes 7%, uh, the rate of annual inflation will decrease due to the base effect. uh, for us, the stable components of inflation are important. they have been at a level somewhere lower for a long time. our target is four percent, but we are now

seeing price pressure. and price pressure may increase and pro-inflationary risks will increase, and we will focus on this, and our goals are to return inflation to four percent in 2004 once again, for this, we will first of all pay attention to stable inflation factors. a next question online a evgenia bloomberg please zhenya ah, hello in recent years, the ministry of finance has taken on a lot. well, that is, you can say, the record volume of payment obligations is payments for which they are tied to the speech rate. this is not only ofz with a floating coupon, but also preferential packages and sme loans, and economists have calculated that this is about 15 trillion rubles. the sum of these obligations is added up, that is, in this way, an increase in the key rate by 1% point per year, the e

budget can become about 150 billion rubles. are there any risks that such a sensitivity of government spending to the key rate, but will limit its increase. eh, and somehow maybe the ministry of finance is now more involved in determining the key rate. this is the first question and the second question for the race colleagues. you said there was a deal coming up soon. vtb openings, that is, soon you will change the opening to ofz and you can generally explain this question in a simple way. why should the central bank do this? what is the actual strategy. we invested in the opening for so long, so that later we would be in the lead for the mythical support of the suffering state bank. thank you and as for us taking a key bet on this does not affect in any way. uh, an increase in the share of expenses subsidized by the ministry of finance or some other.