the beginning of the year is the time of forecasts our economy last year was subjected to a powerful attack and withstood the blow, of course, this does not mean that we do not have problems, moreover, the prevailing conditions. russia needs to accelerate the development of its economy. however, the state of affairs in the world remains difficult and the economy. we have seriously slowed down so that our government faces a difficult task. to find ways to accelerate economic development

against this background, in his vision on this topic , presented in his report the center for macroeconomic analysis and short-term forecasting. there are four scenarios at once from the most positive to the negative. why four and what is the most probable one we will ask one of the authors of the report, dmitry belousov, is he at the studio dmitry rybovych? hello. why four as they thought? well, first of all, happy new year, huh? here, secondly, on the old one. yes, it's pretty good today. just uh, they asked before, that last new year. e director of newtonian forecasting. he asked to gather in the house of scientists and discuss possible forks. next year starts some standard exercise that starts with uncertainty analysis. you know how we have a set of forks, respectively, which we can pass and find ourselves. there means the situation is

as good as possible to as bad as possible. than the maximum good maximum and the worst independence of probability has an independent value, because a sore throat there is a certain horizon, perhaps, here, and the second is there, well, consider it fashionable now, the bottom is there. yes, that there is no worse knocking from below, well, there will be no sense there without awakening, therefore, here cthulhu will wake up. there won't be until then. well, there will be no economy and it simply won’t release its own one, and everything else. hmm, it’s more or less there, you can collect it, apparently, the risks, what are the surebets. here is the first one. e even without relative to us external environment. yes, i have a world. uh, it's likely to be drawn into chris which may or may not be light enough. that is, there, uh, with a loss of about a dozen points. we are almost certainly losing

a few dozen points regarding here world level last year. well, what does this value mean there is a deep slowdown in europe almost, for sure, nothing is clear with the rest, china may grow up relative to last year in a good way. and what, maybe you can slow down they have problems with construction there, there are still spheres. uh, the first fork, respectively, you can lose a little mainly because of europe, we can and strongly in russia somewhere up to well, somewhere from the loss of a half-point of growth, that is, with a slowdown in china, because in china the states and serious, and relevant losses e corresponds, because overheating is more or less everywhere, but it seems to be nowhere in the ninety-seventh year, not this one here, not a mortgage story. yes, you know, respectively, we will begin to squat. actually. here are the oil prices. there may be problems in poor sales and

energy options and so on. well, you don’t really know the first fork, yes, the second story there in the world. and you know, that's the situation, and europe well , first of all, europe, it and the rest are looking at it, or it can speed up or not speed up energy, the transition is a very unlikely story, but nevertheless it is for a bad option. it must be borne in mind that not only energy, not only eco other energy security tyry-pyry, let's be a mass transition - the rejection of narcotics, energy carriers, hydrocarbons in general. yes, of course, and from its russian features. but why is this necessary? well, in order to simulate here, so that supplies are as it should be. uh, it means, well, further is the sanctioning case bogged down with how much it will be. e level e, the risks associated with the action of an external adversary.

e engaged, if the situation is richly resolved quickly, well, the sanctions are sensational regimes almost always and react. well, we, in principle, saw this this summer during such a half-pause. yes, uh, you know, and through turkey , something can be done. something else is there through someone once there, which means that the dull-sweat is looking in the other direction there is something there, here huawei is not allowed there. well, it’s possible. hmm, that means, yes, uh. but on the other hand, there are sanctions regimes, so you can build up and it’s clear that there are secondary sanctions where swift tyry-pyry, a large range, here is the last fourth fork - this is, uh, we are doing a crazy situation. especially if everything is fine, yes, that's the thing. the main thing, probably, means, yes, and it was good to live. uh, how to find out uh, in uh. there the old days flowed by. we are there, in fact,

we chose whether we spend this business on development or to what extent, or something saves or saves? yes, you know, in principle, there by and large. e management is good or bad. i don't even want to discuss it. yes, i ’ll ask you about it later, i’ll ask a very big one in the world, management came down to the fact that he you can do a leaking resource there inside, in principle, there, uh, something there to correct a lot of things they did there with a pc there , technological ones. therefore, it will be the most important thing, here i am, we can use its three resources for our own development. to what extent yes? to what extent can we save there for a rainy day to increase the stability of the exchange rate to create reserves there to lure investors to overprotect the market there. yes, i have, uh, the bad news is that we 're running out of that resource anyway. in the long term. even if uh there, uh, tomorrow will be an agreement is concluded there from some of all

the sanctions will not be immediately said. yes, uh, then you think it's fiction. well, anyway. uh, long-term transport is already due to energy transitions will be to reduce energy sales. in general, prices to the point that our partners, uh, too uh, underestimated their capital investments in oil, and therefore prices were temporarily high there, but in general, there, if you add. with the energy transition excess efforts and sanctions we can get a faster decline and that's the situation, what are we doing? yes, if we have good question, if we have rents in the high options, maybe we can use non- stimulus, uh, or um or uh, form- well, we spent the reserves. with us, it is not very clear with the course that it is being strengthened, then vice versa. let's mean, here are the budgetary reserves, gold and foreign exchange again

comrade fiscal pressure. here are the earnings again. here appeared rocky pressure. upgraded from legan there. you know the second option. yes, if we have, uh, if it doesn't really rent the economy, no, we have bad options. e, in in general, two options are an active option. it 's about how he survived. well, for example, iran was developing alive. yes, e needs 1-2 main partners with whom we interact. we are working on a development program there, in which we will arrange everything. well, china is there, of course, with a good game there, you can score a couple of three of them there. we are energy carriers there. no, there are investments in technological resources and so on. well, or the second option is a situational response, which means trying to form partial reserves. means uh there ain't u looking for some points

growth. right there, just there, that's something balancing the deteriorating situation. still trying, there is inappropriate in this situation. let's lick. well, respectively, one of them is a researcher of many scenarios. yes there four by four, yes, so some are not joint, uh, four main options. the first version of this all good crisis is easy. this means that they do not indulge in an accelerated energy transition to a partner. uh, it means that in the world, not only i repeat, not only europe with which we know what is happening to china and the sanctions regime is not increasing, but in fact weakens, because that's it, well, in fact, it will not be in form. well, firstly, there and in the form there on the street. something there, damn it, grain is not enough. let us know there, there are not enough titanium blanks there. we are there for you. for spare parts for aeroflot, shooting ranges start there, some kind of

such all sorts of sanctions were introduced there for everything and some kind of reservations. and if necessary for national security, you can violate for example. by the way, yes, there in malta, i think, a few months ago. there was a conversation about what needs to be provided flight safety. i thought so. yeah , maybe we can somehow detail there through the side there, these stories have a lot of these stories and ours. eh, there, when there was this frenzy of the year and there he asked, well, there in roskosmos there, well, he was a member of the council there, he talks about such space. and so i say, well, sanctions are sanctions, it’s clear if people don’t even understand that there are male problems - this is a joint russian american program to capture and transfer e-to consumers. er, well, capable distress services. here aircraft and ships. k worked and works. and what? what could not

work? this is a pancake, well, we have supplied and continue to supply titanium, but the part yes titanium yes, here we are, let's remove it again, you will not deliver there. guys only have parts for the engine. here is the upper story , and we use it for the development of stimulating the growth of housing, infrastructure, and payments to the population. e investment is that it is baroque, which means that this is the highest option, the probability of it is such. well, in general, not very big somewhere there is so on hand encourage 15-16%. well, there we get approximately the same parameters that were voiced by the government. here it is somewhere in the order, well, the government - minus one percent growth, uh, recession, to be honest, rather minus one and a half, because well, because about forces, then explain it to us highly. the first quarter, that is, in fact, we are slowly growing there,

but because of the base of the first quarter of that year, we automatically have this, yes, nothing can be done about it. uh, so, uh, the consumption of the population is already going into plus there some kind of light, there is about 0.5%. i have such a next year, a year of such a half-hearted about, well, an arithmetic minus, but in reality it’s not in vk, it’s good. let's immediately talk about the bad, because we don't have much time and the worst. it's all bad, you know? besides, he was chischelilis. eh, we're very unlucky. e with the fact that he will repeat quite unlikely. hypopro-not percent, 2-3, there, of course, uh, but this is a risk concentrator. what is the problem there? what do you mean there is time? the cry of experts has already begun there. it covers us. do you know the new sanctions, do you know there too? gazprom will go around the world barefoot in one shirt. everything

is bad, bad, and the rate will be 200 there. you see , it is declining there. let me see what happens if we hit the entire jackpot. here is a world crisis for one artificial energy measures, also in china, because they need to be quoted on world markets. uh, along with the new sanctions packages, we're also, uh, trying in this situation. instead of stimulating growth. uh, means to engage in ionization. well, on the contrary, let's go let's collect everything there, the bones of the skull. here you can and here. well, somewhere around minus six and a half, that is, it’s bad, of course, but dozens are not recruited there and the rates are in your forecast. i saw about eighty, yes, the average annual, right? well, there, it seems to us that with the speed of the ruble to the dollar, what could have flown away here is bargaining. a balloon there of frictional options, it is very mat discovered even the

south itself when it was still considered in the last brand. uh, what kind of impact on imports do we have, uh, and the price of exports. we have both halves of the trading balance squat, so hmm uh, well, there's a collapse here on course, chatted himself early. well , this and all this exchange rate disaster. it just doesn't work. here, well, that's how it came out, respectively. eventually. and i say, we do it, we do it. i did not dare to publish, because then this was all that guys a. uh, it turns out one more thing simply, because we were not driven by fools. now it's late. you can, of course, fools, if they also stimulated us, as it were. it would still have been the economy in case they ruined not only the entrance to us, but they to us both sides tried something to keep balance bill. just at a lower level. well , okay. well, they are really fools, there is no question, and you are in a good situation. i saw it there, 62,

i think. yes, laziness conceived the average annual earth , we understand, this is approximately your estimates you need to carefully read your reports come to my mail, sometimes there is a trade balance, this is the whole story. eh, dmitry ivanovich after all. hey, we only have a few minutes left. and what do you think, you have already said about the percentage the worst option is the most good. and there are a lot of questions for you, unfortunately, airtime is ending. a and. uh, i would like to, like, ask if there is still an option that next year we can even grow even without taking into account any. not yet. yes, while not a plus, not worse. i say it's a good one. we use, we go to light plus. why because we have involved the population of the population this year? yes, seats. yes, you know we did. uh, here, uh, a few hanging fruits we took down construction site

works. how can we not double our lending to the population, but has already lent something where further to lend something has been paid by the population. it will be paid there, uh, military factories work three shifts. well at 6:00 they work can't say 24 hours. if anyone was, uh, the sanctions regime, which is, even if it will, uh, turn into holes have already been told. well, he, uh, to zero, he won't leave there. yes, that's why this is in any case, it's a slight minus some plus. we have another story, a story that i, uh, such an inner horror experienced. well, is it really here's a single voltage voltage, yes a voltage point. this is that we can, because of the sanctions, fight with the intermediate one, on which we depend. there, the government is all this and very much, but at or there, they tried to solve this problem, uh, substitution of intermediate imports

sits bearings. uh, chemistry there binders electronics that's the whole story. but if we have problems there, and the import of finished products to growing markets will go. yes, this is, perhaps, the history of the auto industry 2.0, in fact, with which i realized that this is a serious issue. we will definitely discuss it. unfortunately next time. thank you very much for dmitry rymovich to come to us. i think that everything will be fine with us. as a result, she remembers that we talked with the head of the analysis and forecasting of macroeconomic processes at the center for macroeconomic analysis and short-term forecasting dmitry belousov

ah, thank you for the question. you know, it seems to me that konstantin iosifovich kosachev described the events in brazil best of all. yes, deputy chairman of the federation council who, uh, called it a strange and pointless road to nowhere. yes, very indeed. more than a week has already passed and it is very difficult to understand the unambiguous beneficiaries. instigators of all these events determine the leaders of these

events, as well as generally determine who is really the culprit at all for such a scenario. here is a repetition of conditionally capitol 2.0 was being prepared for almost the whole year. yes, it was. the main central theme, and there the last months of the election campaign. and in the end, some kind of thing often happens, then what seems like everyone is so actively preparing for this, turns out to be dissatisfied. it often finds , uh, swollen and, perhaps, deliberately overlooked, yes, as they say now, many politicians and analysts in brazil abroad. it seems that it was decided to hang all the sins on the belsanars of his comrades-in-arms. although he was back in november for the first time commenting on the results of the presidential election. e, called on his supporters, protesting supporters, to peaceful demonstrations. he condemned all acts there, violence, blocking, roads, etc., and many noted in the fall that balsanara, just managed to avoid the mistakes that were

attributed to donald trump uh mistakes. i mean the behavior after the loss in the elections, because the balnar after all, his supporters retained the majority in both houses of congress. uh, among the supporters there were governors, very many influential states . that is, he had all the political capital to spend these 4 years as a serious domestic political factor. he could become a serious opponent; the oppositionists had the strength and, in general, had every chance in the next electoral cycle to again apply for should with the president, now his political capital is his political reputation. it is simply destroyed and the main ideological enemy. oh yes, that's the left wing of the democrats, well, or the democrats in general. i mean the balsar, it has been destroyed, and this is very significant, because the united states, as we see it, seeks to devour not only its ideological opponents, but also those who staked on them. yes, i mean, the

rapprochement between brazil under the boy and washington under the administration of this trump, which we observed there in the first term of the presidency lived-baltans, then brazil became a priority partner of the united states is not necessary, when negotiations were underway on a free trade zone of the united states. and when sonars were one of the first to support e, the white house was in e in the venezuelan crisis. yes and well, apparently, the united states is quickly forgotten. uh, similar gestures to the side and uh, now the situation has changed, therefore, alcyonara has turned from the former main ally and friend into a sworn enemy. e dmitry vyacheslavovich what do you think, could this be a deliberate provocation, because it is clear that not the same trump and volosanaru. he did not incite his supporters to storm, uh, and violate the law to storm the administrative building. this is nonsense. it has nothing to do with the actual achievement of goals. this is a clear

provocation. and that is, these are the forces that now do not want the strengthening of the so-called conservatives. someone calls them patriots, there are different assessments, a and terms, but the fact remains. these a patriots are the sun globalists, about whom so much is now being said that these are globalists. they just set up a sanaru, and which, of course, again. well, what kind of person would say in a normal way, a politician, go storm the buildings. this is a coup d'état. it's really framing yourself will destroy your reputation. well, or make a revolution, then, probably, it was necessary that sonar could not be made from florida in any way. so who do you think could do it? all the same, this provocation or it was not? it 's probably central now. the topic of discussion is just an attempt to understand who is the ultimate interest in all these very strange meaningless events. well, there are no direct evidence, yes, some kind of interference there by official washington, but at the same time, i can refer to recent fresh statements in

an interview with e, a companion of the former president of balivia and morales. well, we know a person who, with his history of relationships with washington and morality, believes that they are behind the organization. in general, the same wrong organizations and the united states that supported the entire election campaign, it seems like a force, but at the same time, they previously lit up in a grandiose corruption rock, which, probably, is worth separately to say and we are talking about, first of all, the wrong organization of the open society of the notorious, and joseph jorjaso. yes, some famous names pop up all the time. such a vivid emotional reaction of the american establishment to all events is surprising. in my opinion, excessively redundant what becomes suspicious? yes, just recently, too, over 40. uh, congressmen from the democratic party. the united states, for example, demanded support for the investigation. eh, all these events and even demanded to revoke the visa. uh,

jeirabanara. well, that's why such engagement, general interest in democrats. it is possible that the democrats are really solving this internal political problem for one thing. this is a way, including pressure on donald trump. eh, there are already differences. she's probably stupid. ah, dmitry islavich. well, in general it causes strangeness. why would a perform after the inauguration? it doesn't make any sense at all. no. well, this is some kind of stupidity just to take a go on and on. the main thing is that even here in america it is active. they themselves discussed this american media as a carbon copy is simple. the sixth of january, 21 , and here you are for these january, however, there the inauguration was supposed to be a baidan later. and here. well, there is still at least somehow it makes sense, although it is clear that it was a provocation. it was what was done in order to put the trump. it's still clear as daylight. e, nevertheless, how now, in your opinion, will the situation in brazil develop to calm down or is it still possible for some relapses? well, uh, i think that some

individual relapses are possible and in general, galsanara has always had a very active and mobilized army of supporters. if we remember the last years of the ballionar, it has always outright won what is called the war of the streets. and during the election demonstrations during the celebration of independence day on september 7, the supporters of the ballionar showed that they easily organize themselves and take to the streets. well, the truth is, we are talking about some such more radical part were the senarists. and we see that, for example, a moderate part of the supporters of the pallionar. she is in total shock. what is happening, as, probably, the sonar itself was and does not understand. why did all this happen? er, also trying to identify the real culprits, so, well, brazil as we know the street protests, in general, part of the political culture and dynamics. they never get away. we may recall the protests of the thirteenth year of the fifteenth year of the fifteenth year which led to the resignation. yes, the impeachment of rusov in general, within the framework of the scandal. i know there was strength. arrested, so probably for

a long time, hmm. after all, half of the country voted for boarder. and this is so to say tension, it will not go anywhere. but as we see now, the authorities are trying to restore order, there are a lot of security officials on the streets with strict meters, and in this regard, brazil is now , probably, much safer than a week ago. well, yes, unfortunately, brazil's known problems with street and security and so on. uh, and uh, dmitry alexandrovich and nevertheless. what do you think, literally like this, it’s possible not very uh, in short, what will force to do, but in relation to us he is interested in how he will build relations with us, because you know this is his abhat, what is the issue and in the abkhazation of biden macron, everyone directly sympathized with him. oh poor, poor dosyeva. how are you offended? we are for you and so on. will he not cross over to this stan and will not spoil relations with us. well, you know, if the united states

or the west was really behind these events, then lol is definitely not the kind of politician, uh, who can be made accommodating. or yes. or turn on your zone of influence, he's absolutely political he is an absolute pragmatist. yes , the weakening of balsanar is now, uh, beneficial to him, since this is my opponent with me. let me remind you that there were sonar, generally called for hanging power, but uh, these events will not lead to the fact that lula will automatically begin to equal washington or the european union there. uh, lula remembers perfectly and knows how, uh, the united states supported. this is the scandal already mentioned car wash or pita in 2015, which cost the career of his successor, and which generally led to his arrest. yes, and he knows perfectly well what role played by the same ngos, which we recently mentioned in those years. yes, he has no illusions about who is his friend or who is his true enemy, yes he is baidan's invitation to come to washington in february, well, we

will be able to remember that in his first term he was still elected president, still in office. washington made the same first visit, but this did not stop him a few years later on the famous. summit america in mardel plata. just to publicly humiliate george bush by burying the alka project, so lol this pragmatic force, as a pragmatist, he understands that good bilateral relations with the russian federation within the framework of brix is ​​an absolute and foreign policy priority of his country. therefore, here i would not be so worried, uh dmitry slavich let's hope that the new president of brazil will really , uh, first of all, take care of the interests of his country, and uh, correspond to his people. thank you very much. let me remind you that we talked with dmitry razumovsky, director of the latin american institute of wounds. after a short advertisement, our broadcast will continue the programs news duty department, and i alexander karevsky say goodbye to you until next week. all the best. the leadership decided

to develop an atomic bomb kurchatov was the first to understand that this weapon should not be used. it had to be folded, not folded. the test of the soviet atomic bomb, which sobered up the aggressor, led the people, they thought about how to use it for the benefit of mankind on earth. soviet nuclear power plant. the farther we go.