[000:00:00;00] russia overcame western sanctions thanks to trade with china turkey and the strange eurasian economic union writes the american newspaper the new york times foreign trade returned to the level it was before the start of the special operation in ukraine and exports from china reached a record level replacing

the supply of european goods to russia , the industrial city of the soviet union embankments blazed mamaev kurgan and the cavalry gallops bombed not specifically any military facilities troops there was a carpet bombing of the whole city, half of the volga there was no time to patch up the armor and it was hammered with chopsticks, all these fragments flew into people. they killed them in stalingrad at that time, he did not return with you. we look to know everything about russia

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wildberries overboard -50. russian cold 150 g of inconspicuous rich taste in one glass big incredible taste motor oils this week the international monetary fund acknowledged the obvious our economy is much more resilient to external shocks. what was it supposed to be? western analysts, a year ago

, not only did russian gdp decline by only 3% last year with forecasts of 15-20, but this year there is even a chance that our economy will not only not fall, but may even grow a little, despite the most severe sanctions ever imposed on one side in history. can this happen, let's talk about it with the first vice president of the center for strategic research? gleb pokatovicham gleb gennadyevich hello well, let's know, let's start with the mvs forecast. we know that the imf is one of the pillars. uh, the nonsense of the tenwood system, a serious organization and forecasts from this organization that do not always coincide with reality. this does not only apply to our country. you yourself know this very well. but nevertheless such a forecast. e, you should not treat it, but superficially, and i would still like to understand, why did the imf e friend make such a statement, how would you

comment on it? well what is now published this update usually happens four times a year. and the only thing that is directly stated in the comments to the forecast. this is what a price ceiling is, and the one introduced for russian oil is ineffective due to the redirection of oil exports to non-sanctioned countries. when in april, uh, a full-fledged uh, imf forecast is probably a forecaster, they will share some thoughts about what they actually had in mind and due to what factors, in their opinion, uh, the russian economy can move to growth already in this year as a whole imf uh, all of last year was a much bigger pessimist than the consensus of russian economists, and in general the consensus was also quite conservative, but it quickly reacted to the incoming statistics and

actually changed there already in the fall, for example, estimates of the decline in 22 years were about two and a half three and a half percent. and in fact, it probably seems that even there are two and a half or less. that 's why, in general, of course, it's normal when the forecast does not quite match what actually happened. here and actually, the same imf already in april. maybe, revise their assessments in some other way, or vice versa, uh, clarify in a more positive direction. i mean that, of course, international investors are listening to him, and so on, they don’t really care about their mood now, let’s put it frankly in these conditions that we have now, but nevertheless. demand for hydrocarbons, raw materials and so on depends on the mood, er and the state of the entire world economy, so we are thus connected in this way

with world markets. whether we like it or not, and so we survived we pay attention to such forecasts, however. eh, after all, you really rightly noted that you were more skeptical about our country. now somehow he is even more optimistic than i understand, even our ministry of economics. and here is your center. i have such a forecast for our economy, and here it is. a few words, why do you have such a forecast? what is it connected with? well, we are still trying not to overestimate expectations by the fact that now it is just beginning and even the main annual statistics will be released in a week, and the data on investments and the final estimates. well, not the final, in fact, a preliminary assessment of the dynamics. gdp will also be in a few weeks, so i would probably say that, well, let's say , with a high degree of confidence that if there is

a recession, it will not exceed one percent, but there are three times less, right? uh huh, please continue. in fact, those shocks that occurred. they have already happened. they remained last year in absence. well, such as, for example, the departure of western automakers, it has already taken place, and gas exports to europe have already reduced to a minimum and so on. that is, that is, now we are at certain levels from which we can start, but move upward. in addition, we will join in full growth those tools that were either invented last year or er, prepared for launch. now they will begin to act and the state will act here. uh, let's put it this way, a kind of shoulder for investment demand, uh, and moreover, we have

an investment decline, perhaps at the end of the year there will not be. that is, for the results of nine nine months. we have had an increase in investment 5.9% and practically guarantees that investments will remain in the positive zone at the end of the year, so, in principle, we have a certain set of prerequisites that will allow us to provide. uh, positive growth rates, yes gleba gennadievich well, i will explain to our viewers that investment is not a dirty word. this is a very important topic, and economists talk a lot about it, because jobs depend on it in general , the development of the economy for investment, as you know, they do not exist. and yet. eh, that's a problem. it was before all these sanctions. at we are not up to investing. the economy was saved. unfortunately, the chronic situation has changed for the better. well, not so fast. as we would all like, uh, the depth is different. and what do you think, here are the measures to be taken in order for this investment process to intensify, although you rightly

noted. and if this is finally confirmed, that even in such, well, to put it mildly, not simple conditions. our business is our gost companies after all. invested in the economy, that is, invested believes in economy. here is what else needs to be done to make this process more active. it seems to me that we need to get rid of what is, because even the government's plan, which included priority measures to establish economic activity. it included more than 300 events, some of them, of course, have already been completed, some have become indefinite, such as , for example, various kinds of regulatory measures , the transition to a christ-oriented approach, and so on. that is, uh, the sanctions forced us to change our own, and the regulatory landscape. and thereby reduce

the cost of the enterprise, so ah. arsenal of tools. he's big enough. they are , in fact, over budgeted. they are included in the federal budget. uh, there are company standards for them, so uh, it seems to me that you need to use what it started and you need to continue, that is, sequence is important here, and changing the trajectory, as things go. eh, well, could it be worse than ah? come up with some new merch. that is, i once again have 300 measures for that , roughly speaking, some of them are already implemented. and you, uh, said such a word for budgeted. that is, there is really money for them, there are opportunities. and that is, these are not wishlist, but real plans. do i understand correctly?

yes, yes, and the fact is that, well, the state is simple and it is easy to finance all private investments, our investments are almost two-thirds a little less financed from the company’s own funds by the state can act as a kind of a kind of shoulder, that is, share with investors uh, risks give uh, key financial support, where it is it is necessary and, accordingly, when the machine will work, the machine will go further, but will our machine continue to work, if suddenly, uh, such a chance, unfortunately, there are realized wishlist, just mr. mcfaul, whom we will discuss a little later his wishes. but he offers a price ceiling of $ 30. when we were already talking about 60, we said that no one would stop at this ceiling and that it would continue to be introduced, firstly, today. this week they started to work. uh, some measures, that's our february 1st. which oppose

all these restrictions, and on the other hand on sunday. uh, on the 5th , the restriction will also come into effect, you know about our oil products. here are a few words in a complex of how the situation will change, er, when all these measures start to work. well, with the ceiling, even the imf has already told us that it doesn’t work, and it doesn’t work, not because he probably doesn’t read the imf reports, he still wants us to lower the ceilings there to the floor, probably, but he doesn’t work according to a lot, no matter the price. well, besides, hmm promises russia lies in the fact that we will not comply with any ceilings. and those who lead them. and for those who carry them, there will be no deliveries. accordingly here, uh, chief. uh, the question is actually not really already there is the answer to the main

question. this is to ensure that our, e, trading partners from friendly countries maintain demand for e, our products. well, india, china, uh, in terms of deliveries, in which u have grown literally several times with oil products, of course, it is somewhat more difficult, but it is already clear from current statistics that that part of the flows and european ones is already is reoriented, for example, to africa, that is, and the ability of russian business to adapt to new challenges. it has been tested many times, and it is being tested now and this ability itself. e quite a giant will bring results , so uh, i think that we have every chance to cope with this situation, well , no matter what numbers uh, will be written in the new restrictions. well, here is another point. uh, in february, we have to

decide on the monitoring of prices, which, uh, at which we sell this order president to decide on these activities. why was this a question? because, of course, ceilings don't work, eh, but they still affect the mindset of traders and we see $49 at the price. $80 a barrel i don't like these prices. i think we all don't like these prices, that's why we love india, we love china, but we also love ourselves, that's why we would like our partners to be adequate to our traders, most importantly, without using an excuse. well , you see, the sanctions, so we sell there, how much is it easier to sell, but in order not to happened to not something that some kind of abuse. i didn’t want to say the right word, but such backlashes, so that we clearly understand who buys from us. how much to buy and so on. there are already some considerations here, how can this be done? or some kind of wound to discuss it.

another whole month. well, first of all, it's a month. there's a certain amount of time to come up with mechanisms to release the documents, but that's one of those uh problems. uh, with which we already faced last year, because all this sanctions wave. on the one hand, she made us solve those problems faster, about which we knew so and which we tried to solve. well, perhaps, new problems have arisen not with the same degree of intensity, which, in particular , are related to the fact that there is a certain set of agencies that form, e, quotations, including oil quotes. the situation is not clear. yes, yes, since the situation is changing and oil is already trading a little bit differently, uh, that is, the cost of insurance fracts. they may no longer be reflected in the price that

the agency officially publishes it is necessary to understand, basis and of course, this basis, e, must be determined in some way understandable for our state, because in the end it calculates, based on this, taxes for oil companies. that is why, ah, here are the news that appeared literally today or the other day that this work has been launched and will be completed in a month. this is very important, because a is just a set of quotes, e, necessary for budget management and planning and for general understanding what is happening what is happening in the market, and it is very important and it is important in particular so that we do not react to the information that here is the brand 80, and the url is 40 and 40 dollars are going somewhere and we need to -do something, but in fact the price is somewhere in the interval, where exactly it is. i

think that it will be, of course. i understand you , your hint is clear to me and the logic of thinking too. i even agree with her, but nevertheless we attract attention, because people ask questions about this issue. they also read the news. there 80 here 40, well, there with a penny yes, questions, but, therefore, there are elements of the game of information warfare and so on, therefore, well, we must clarify the situation, you cleared it up, gennadyevich, we literally have a minute left. still. let's sum it up here. your forecast for, uh, gdp , you said, is somewhere minus 1%, uh, maybe it's about, what can change this forecast? and to change this forecast, probably, maybe some significant preservation of demand for electricity, our key export commodities for oil for electricity, oil products, and certain shocks domestic demand, whatever they were,

because a lot depends on the domestic demand of consumer investment e. well, these are probably two main things. well, in general, of course, the level of interest rates from the state of inflation, because well, here the regulator, er, our mega-regulator, the bank of russia will react. and on how the price situation develops and the rates will change accordingly, if they do not grow significantly, then this, of course, will simplify. uh, restoration, well , in almost all contrast, but agregatovich, and the external shock, which, nevertheless, may be now, despite the fact that it seems that the external situation in the foreign markets of consumers of our goods. we are only interested in this side of it. and let there be cunning schemes for energy, but everyone knows perfectly well that the west is buying. our goods through money there and so on. what do you think, after all, this can also change? uh, your view on our economy, if it accelerates there, the recession of the external.

in general, i know some where. by the way, with regard to global indicators. i'm here still, in a certain sense , like many of my colleagues, i am guided by the imf forecasts of some kind of sharp slowdown in the global economy is not expected, as a halt in growth in china, especially given their rejection of e, a zero-type policy. that is why. uh, of course you can come up with extreme manaria, in which uh. i apologize to us while it is not visible. to be honest, yes. i'm sorry. we have run out of time, unfortunately, we will definitely discuss with our own. this is another time. and the topic is extremely important. well, the year has just begun. we are still we will return to this. and thank you very much i will remind you. we talked with the first president of the center for strategic research, gleb, rolling in pyaterochka, there are always discounts for lyovushka candy

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in ukraine, more and more new facts are being revealed, and multimillion-dollar embezzlement in various departments and spheres, the reasons for such purges lie not at all in the desire of vladimir zelensky to eradicate corruption, but in attempts to curry favor with foreign sponsors. after all, they will definitely ask you to report on where billions of dollars have been spent. anton there are so many corruption scandals in ukraine that they can already be divided into the most loud, perhaps, the ex-deputy minister of defense was arrested with the military shapovalov can be released on bail of half a billion hryvnia 11 million dollars, but few people believe in this the national police handed a sheet of suspicion to the adviser to the deputy defense ministry of ukraine, the locksmith, all in the same high-profile egg case, when the officials of the defense ministry they bought groceries for the armed forces at exorbitant prices and stole almost 120 million budget hryvnias into the shadows, the sbu claims that this is more than 3

million dollars. to an official from the ministry of defense khmelnytsky and other issues related to the purchase of low-quality bulletproof vests, as well as hats. by the way, it is necessary for kiev to switch attention to something. so far , the russian army is crushing everything under artyomovsk, but this is not the main reason for the notorious anti-corruption war. reasons, across the ocean, the republicans got a slight advantage in the lower house of congress in the house of representatives and all they can afford is as they promised to start an audit with the help of ukraine and at the same time zelensky yes, he really puts on a show because that they fire deputy ministers, they fire people who do not answer in the first place. well, it depends from my point of view. uh, the mess in the ministry of defense should be received by the minister of defense, respectively, he would have to fly, then the sacristan oligarchs have long been an eyesore to zelensky. he does not intend to share power and considers kolomoisky one of the main threats, who remembers the president of ukraine as just a comedian on stage on his salary. and now zelensky is taking revenge, he opened

the black accounting of ukrnavta and ukrtat nafta kilograms of documents, dozens of seals from various companies. under one scheme, companies did not list the state's excise tax on gasoline, while priced to consumers. he was laid under suspicion by the chief accountant. the first deputy head of the board in the criminal case of embezzlement c 40 billion hryvnia. this is more than a billion dollars, even kolomoisky himself was being searched today. and you gut you enough. seriously , he has a procession of such boorish behavior and defiant behavior, in principle, it’s hard to find a country in the world in which they only the head case against the grate. here. well, the only thing even in ukraine already. as you can see, they got there. that's why i think that, most likely, kolomoisky will still, uh, take state officials lukewarm by the hand, prosecutor general. kostin announced the exposure of an employee of the odessa administration. he received a bribe of $ 40,000 for fraud with land under suspicion, the ex-minister of energy for salik

, who even under poroshenko concluded agreements that were unprofitable for the state, those whom the sbu and nabu have not yet come close to take away legs, like the deputy head of the presidential office, kirill timoshenko, who was involved in a scandal with the theft of humanitarian aid in zaporozhye and was driving one of the suvs that the americans gave kiev, supposedly to evacuate the wounded from the frontline zones , the current anti-corruption so-called official fell the main victim, which the deputy head of the president's office kirill timoshenko uh, it was launched, not by zelensky, but by the united states in order to pull the leash in order to clean the ranks of the people of zelensky , who frankly got out of hand presented, as well as an occasion on the eve of the ukraine eu itself to show itself as a fighter against corruption , the topic did not go very well, not in europe, but in ukrainian society they did not separate

the stealing officials. directly from zelensky himself, but zelensky continues to fight corruption on the show in front of the barrel of funderlein charles does not hesitate, in fact, the independent hopes to beg for an early entry into the eu, although it unambiguously hints to her that this will not be the case for zelensky. i really want to go to kalashny ryad, however, so to speak, the appearance does not allow, however, there is enough corruption in europe itself, even though they pretend not to be stained. democratic paradise deputy head of the servant of the people kravchuk suddenly spoke out that it is very important that we are fighting manifestations of corruption, but it is also wrong for the european parliament to say that there is no corruption in the european union. there were also searches and detentions related to the world cup, when the european parliamentarians covered up the violation of human rights and so on at the current summit, you can hardly remember this while zelensky is catching ukraine the opportunity to show the west the goods in person, curbing corrupt officials in public , the military meetings of the oligarchs, corruption is

one of the tools for managing ukraine , if it were honestly non-corruptible politicians, it would be impossible to work with them. they would defend the interests of ukraine and it would be impossible to unleash a war on zelensky , after all, the oligarch himself, the system mired in bribes and theft was also grown by him, so the current anti-corruption company is nothing more than dust in the

eyes our former western partners want to arrange a big explosion for us, we are talking about an article by the former american ambassador to russia michael mcfall in the most authoritative us political magazine forex, we can say, this is a cry from the heart of those political circles that organized the war in ukraine, the article directly states that the prolongation of the conflict has already become unprofitable for the west and a number of measures are proposed that, according to the author's intention, should radically change the situation in ukraine, that is, it is necessary to the victory over our country is even assigned the date of a radical change on february 24, the anniversary of its. why is mr. mcfull in such a hurry, which means the appearance of such an article, we will talk with one of the most respected political scientists in our country, an emeritus