we continue to review the news today vladimir putin arrived in the arkhangelsk region, where he will hold a meeting on the development of the timber industry, and the trip began with a visit to the production area of ​​the ustyansk complex. it is included in the list of backbone companies of the federal level, and the president went up to the modern operator's shop. there, on the screens, you can observe all the stages of working with a tree. for example, an enterprise. vladimir putin's message to the federal assembly, the press secretary of the president dmitry peskov

the armed forces of the russian federation continue to conduct a special operation in the kupyat region as a result of offensive operations by units of the western group of forces. we will return to this topic, we will definitely show the briefing footage. now there is a live broadcast from the central bank at the beginning of the statement of the chairman following the meeting of the board of directors. good afternoon. today we have decided to keep the key rate at 7.5% per annum. uh, there's been some big changes lately.

eh, on the one hand. ah, it got worse. terms of foreign trade have fallen russian oil prices with a different situation in the economy is better than the october forecast, and the shift in the structure of demand continues consumption remains restrained private investment is slowing down, but budget spending is growing, while informational risks. in general, they have increased. therefore, in the current year, the probability of a rate increase exceeds the probability of its reduction, and the expediency of changing the rate will be determined by the development of the situation. i will dwell in more detail on the arguments underlying today's solutions. inflation dynamics remains moderate at the moment. we do not yet have full inflation data for january, but weekly data show that in january , current price growth rates likely increased to the highest

levels since april last year . , like fruits and vegetables, but at the same time , more stable components, for example, prices for services, also contribute to the acceleration. in general, the pace growth in stable components of inflation, according to our estimates, is still moderate; this is largely due to restrained consumer demand. household spending on major real estate purchases, car repairs and overseas travel declined due to changes in supply and high uncertainty, these funds from household participation spilled over into savings. uh, the propensity to form which is now high. at the same time, there have recently been signs of improvement in consumer sentiment, increased consumer activity may

contribute to persistently high inflation expectations. the company's price expectations also remain well above the multi-year average inflation expectations built into ofz yields also exceed the inflation target, despite a gradual increase in the current price growth rate in the coming month. uh, a significant drop in annual inflation due to the base effect. uh, as we said in the spring months, it is very likely to drop today's 11.8 percent. even below 4%. but this will only reflect the output from the calculation of annual inflation of high values ​​​​at the peak of the rise in prices in march april last year, they are the current inflationary picture. restructuring the economy, the completion of increased

business and cost pass-through to consumer prices, and the persistence of foreign trade restrictions will continue to drive up prices this year. our monetary credit policy takes this into account. it is aimed at ensuring that, taking into account the scale of the impact of these factors on the economy, to stabilize inflation in our country. targets near four percent in 2024. significant structural changes continue in the economy, we have improved the forecast for gdp dynamics for this year. this is due both to the upward revision of estimates of previous periods, and to more significant budget expenditures. what was taken into account in our october forecast. structural changes in the economy are manifested in a steady increase in output in some sectors and its reduction in others. the former can be attributed, for example,

to a separate industry and construction sectors, which are increasing transport infrastructure is developing rapidly, where public investment is playing an increasingly important role. at the same time , private sector investment projects may be delayed or curtailed due to unavailability of necessary equipment or uncertainty about future demand. in general, the contribution of budget expenditures to the dynamics of aggregate demand is increasing the labor market is an important indicator of structural changes in the economy unemployment has reached a minimum level the shortage of employees in agriculture and construction is increasing in regionally, the shortage of personnel is more pronounced in the urals and siberia , where the growth of industrial production has accelerated, as well as in the far east, a new logistics and trade infrastructure is being created there.

structural changes inevitably lead to higher costs in many sectors. detailed thematic materials on this are included in the february consolidated report of our territorial main departments of the regional economy. well, gradually the pressure on prices from costs will decrease. we are already seeing improvement the situation with logistics, in particular, when transporting imported goods from the far eastern ports to the european part of the country. in general, we can summarize that the economy is actively adapting to the ongoing changes and we estimate a decline in gdp for 22 years of 2.5% for the current year, our forecast for gdp dynamics is from minus one to plus one percent. now about the external environment the risks of global recession have declined to improve the mood in world markets contributed to three factors. the first discovery of the economy. china

after the removal of covid restrictions, the second - it is that the central banks of developed countries, which are making significant efforts to reduce inflation, are close to the peak of raising their rates and the third decline in prices in the energy markets. first of all , everything in europe. this is favorable. it also affects the economies of developing countries, including russia's key trading partners . however, the positive impact of this factor on russia will be restrained by sanctions. comparison with previous forecast we have clarified the impact of sanctions on oil adjustment of the russian oil sector in december january occurred due to lower prices, and not a reduction in volumes. uh, today the government announced a voluntary 500,000 bpd cut in russia's production from march.

we will monitor the impact of this decision on the dynamics of oil prices, but nevertheless, compared to october, our forecast for oil prices for 23 years is lower, uh, as before, in the forecast table, we indicate the forecast price of urals oil, but when compiling the forecast, now in more detail, given that after the introduction of restrictions, export prices russian oil varies greatly depending on the brand of oil and the point of its shipment, respectively, the actual emerging average export. new prices for russian oil and its forecast may differ significantly from quotations, markirovsk. as for the assessment of the consequences of the embargo on oil products, it only came into force a few days ago and the effects are yet to be clarified. we have revised the forecast of the balance of payments for this gost year, the export forecast has been lowered. uh, imports, on the contrary, are increased taking

into account the actual trends of recent months as a result, the current account surplus forecast for 23 has been reduced. we will return to this topic for the statements of the head of the central bank. and now the footage from the presidential press service. at the suggestion of some of our colleagues. we are now with a group of comrades here in the arkhangelsk region

. i think that it will give odds to its competitors in any country in the world that is engaged in this type of activity together with the heads of companies of specialized centuries. consider today the state of affairs in this sector of the economy in the processing of forests. and in general, in the forest industry as a whole, i would like to note that we regularly address this topic. in 2020, a number of important decisions were made on the development of the timber industry complex. including measures to increase the degree

of wood processing to control the use of forest resources throughout the entire technological chain, as well as to improve forest management and forest supervision. today we will definitely consider how these and our other solutions are implemented. and of course, taking into account the current situation, i propose to discuss what has been done to stimulate domestic demand as for the products of the timber industry complex , i would like to note that russia accounts for one fifth of the world's timber reserves. this is a huge natural advantage of our country, and from the point of view of ecology, from the standpoint of industrial development, the question is how prudently we manage this resource. well, for reference, let me remind you that timber reserves in russia amount to 82 billion

cubic meters; in brazil , 126 billion. complex in russia's gdp is a relatively small amount of about one percent, to be more precise, well, everything for 99 acres is obvious that with a modern approach, the industry has reserves. good potential for long-term growth , however, last year, domestic forestry industrialists faced serious. and worsened in general, the global market for wood, processing is perhaps the main reason. and as we know, the european market is closed for our companies. and in the end , all this led to a decrease in production. definitely support the relationship of our wood processing companies and

professionals employed in this area by companies that have already invested and continue to invest in deep wood processing, including in the northwestern federal district of course. we need to help businesses build efficient logistics flows to predictable partners. i expect today to hear a proposal on this matter, while we must unconditionally adhere to the strategic vectors of the development of the timber industry. i'll remind you increase in demand within the country, increase in own processing capacities and production of quality products with high , added value, including e, wooden houses, furniture, paper, and so on, vladimirovich spoke about this today, when he showed her this enterprise. in addition, it is necessary to expand the use, as is done

here to make fuel in the housing and communal sector, as regards electricity housing construction, here it is necessary to develop the mortgage instrument more actively. good prospects for wooden houses. is in settlement emergency housing. same. today we talked about this in the creation of fabs and other social objects, i think today too. let's talk about this in more detail, of course, the key question. this is the availability of modern technologies and equipment for processing. unfortunately, just like here, there is still a high dependence on foreign parks. no, i understand perfectly, yes, we all understand that the task is not easy, well, of course, this dependence must be overcome. i ask you to place special emphasis on the development of our own technological base during the reports woodworking. what has already been done and is planned to be done to increase the output

of domestic equipment and components , it was also nice to lay out about this, as well as to promote profile research in this regard, including this is important for the modernization of our pulp and paper industry. here it is necessary to increase the depth of processing to develop new types of products for various sectors of the economy. that's what i would like to say at the beginning let's start with the word netorium or not. colleagues may have said that today's meeting is dedicated to one of the most important sectors of our country 's development of the forestry complex, it is also forestry, for which the ministry of natural resources is responsible for the forest industry, for which the ministry of industry and trade is responsible for the starting point or systemic changes. as far as the decriminalization of the industry is concerned, the decision to ban the export of coniferous and valuable

hardwood roundwood from russia is certainly a historic decision. this decision, like many other systemic measures to develop and decriminalize industries, was made by you vladimir vladimirovich at the meeting. everything in september 2020 was reported in execution. the first ban on the export of coniferous and valuable hardwood roundwood has been in effect since january 1, 2022, the federal customs service reliably monitors the implementation of this decision . in order to stimulate the deep processing of wood, from june 2021, decisions were made to introduce export customs duties on rough sawn timber. this year , such duties have been extended for another 3 years. to control the turnover of timber, the growth of the forestry, vested

with additional powers before this type of supervision, did not exist at all , as a result, since july 2021, more than 18,000 cases of administrative offenses have been initiated. second, a number of systemic measures have been taken to increase the transparency of the industry and combat illegal logging until recently, no one controlled the movement of timber from the plot to production. and exporting it outside the country this problem. we solve through the digitalization of the industry at the first stage, we modernized the forest and egoist industry information system; at the second, by 2025 , a new information system of the forest complex will be created and a unified digital forest register will be formed. on your instructions, from 2022, electronic

accompanying documents are being formed in the forest and egoist, which are necessary at each stage of the movement of timber. if there is no confirmation of the legality of the origin of a batch of wood in the system, then its sale and movement is impossible today, more than seven and a half million electronic accompanying documents have been generated in a year and a half , more than 480,000 warehouses and more than 50,000 production facilities have been registered in the system. prior to the introduction of these services was unknown. how many such facilities are there in the country and where they are located control over the sale of timber by regional and municipal institutions has been strengthened. for them, the obligation to sell wood using exchange mechanisms has been introduced. it allowed. doubled increase the cost of a cubic meter of wood

harvested during forestry activities reduce corruption risks increase in 22 the income of such budgetary institutions by 2.5 billion rubles. since this year , requirements for the sale of wood have been established. through the exchange also for federal agencies. as a result of the decisions implemented to date, the volume of illegal logging has decreased by 1.6 times compared to 2020. over the 2 years of the forest complex reform, it has not only significantly reduced illegal logging, but also to achieve the most important goal of balancing the conservation and use of forests. vladimir vladimirovich, for the first time in 20 years, the annual recovery forest indicators exceed the area of ​​felled and dead stands by a quarter.

work continues on the digitization of public services provided in the forestry sector on a single public services portal 10 of the most popular leaf services have already been launched, including services for filing forest declarations and reports an application for an examination of forest development projects and approval of forest projects recovery. first work on epgu, more than 420,000 such applications have been submitted. vladimir vladimirovich, you recently instructed the government to more actively implement artificial intelligence mechanisms in various sectors of the economy. we in the forest complex conducted an experiment on automated fixation, a timber truck of timber trucks on the roads using artificial intelligence video cameras in real time determined in a stream of cars loaded timber trucks. this information was compared with data from the industry information system for the presence of an electronic accompanying document. the experiment turned out to be a successful

artificial intelligence system. within 2 months, i recognized one thousand 1052 vehicles as timber-carrying equipment, of which 370 facts. transportation was not issued electronic accompanying documents. if you support us we will work out the legal, financial and other aspects of this mechanism. as ways of holding liable for the transportation of timber without an electronic accompanying document? thirdly, a number of support measures have already been taken for private entrepreneurs in the forest management block by 2 years; the validity period of forest declarations for tenants has been extended by half ; neighbor or forest inventory. this made it possible, according to

rosleskhoz estimates, to reduce business costs to 5 billion rubles until 2025. the deadlines for the entry into force of the norms on mandatory equipping vehicles working in the forest with the glonass system has been extended. the deadline for fulfilling obligations to compensation forest restoration from one year to three years has been reduced by the volume of use of planting material from a closed root system with restoration up to twenty percent. according to the estimates of the sectoral department , business costs for reforestation have thus decreased by 5 billion rubles. important amendments to the forest code have been adopted regarding the provision of forest plots for timber harvesting to enterprises with capacities for its processing. this will make it possible to provide the timber industry enterprise with a forest raw material base as a matter of priority and exclude the very possibility of the existence of such a thing as

early forestry. additionally, i ask you to consider the possibility of introducing another support measure. it is considered fox -like to give timber industry enterprises this year a deferment from paying lease payments for forest plots while maintaining employment vladimir vladimirovich work on decriminalization of the development and digitalization of the complex will continue in cooperation with the regions branch business and scientific community my colleagues. today, they are reporting on support measures from the ministry of industry for finding new markets and stimulating domestic consumption . thank you for your attention. thank you very much, please, denis dear colleagues, despite the objective decline in indicators in the timber industry, our task is to continue the systemic development of the industry and, uh, create

additional conditions for the resumption of growth no later than 24 years. to do this, we have focused on three main areas, about which you have already mentioned this further deepening of wood processing to develop new export markets is not to expand demand, but domestically to meet these challenges. here the industry continues to implement priorities. last year, new capacities for the production of paper were introduced.

more than 30 large projects are currently at the implementation stage. for some of them, due to changes in the project documentation , the deadlines are being adjusted. but the main thing is that investors do not abandon their plans, in particular , the launch of cellulose is planned in june. ah cardboard plant in the irkutsk region , about 90 billion rubles were invested in this large-scale investment project. its opening will increase the production of cardboard in the country by 600,000 tons. these are the capitals last year supported by nine billion rubles, for example, through loans for the development of industry

, mechanisms, kppk, and now we are connecting. a new instrument cluster investment platform announced at the end of last year to stimulate the development of marginal , including in demand in new export directions, the enterprise in the industry is already diverting shipments to friendly countries to help re-route last year along with a russian export hub. we subsidized the transport costs of the timber industry by 8 billion rubles. what made it possible to increase russian processed timber, uh, to north africa middle east, uh, middle southeast, this applies primarily to lumber

, paper, cardboard, pulp and other nomenclature, which was in demand by your decision to increase the number of container trains east direction. losses from export restrictions, it is necessary to use all the possibilities of domestic demand. as you have already noted, we have an excess of capacity for today's papilley, which was created mainly in the north-west for european markets, but we have worked with the ministry of construction on the possibility of transferring municipal boiler houses to this environmentally friendly type of fuel needed for our equipment is produced and we see the potential for at least 60 boiler houses in

the near future, a very capacious segment for the growth of wood consumption is construction residential and social facilities, including construction. here, wooden houses are growing today, but so far it is predominantly often at home. built in an economic way you gave instructions for the development of industrial housing construction, the timber industry is ready to provide houses with a set for high-rise buildings of schools, kindergartens, uh, post offices and standard projects have already been developed and are in the public domain. for their implementation. the ministry of construction and i have made significant progress due to the mistake of rules from snips. now there is no more regulation

barriers for the construction of four-story apartment buildings have already been implemented, but they need to be mass-produced in order to stimulate our citizens to purchase industrial house kits. we have provided subsidies for compensation. manufacturers, but above all scale this segment. we will be able to, where the state is the initiator in the first place, meaning construction projects within the framework of national projects and regional programs enterprise order. let them load their

capacity.