hello, the international review is on air at the fyodor lukyanov studio today in the program of the international review the events of the week chronicle facts comments the skill of escalating the conflict, how to avoid a military clash materials of our program? africa on the eve of an era of change, a window of opportunity opens report from

morocco this spring was awaited with apprehension , a surge of tension here and an attempt to turn the tide on the ukrainian fronts and the growing impact of the economic war and the aggravation of all international conflicts. after all, the ability of the players to mutual understanding has gone to peak and the world has accumulated, as before, objective contradictions said , military conflicts have accompanied mankind throughout its history. this is europe in the second half of the 20th and early 21st centuries. lucky to consider the war an anomaly. our ancestors would have been genuinely perplexed. what arrogance the peaceful order is recent, but rather an exception for almost any historical period. yes, and it is established for a long time or not, only as a result of big wars, and wars happen regularly. the thirty years' war began

on may 23, 1618 in prague when the representatives of the german emperor were thrown out of the window by the czech nobles. it was a rebellion of protestants who undermined the power of the catholic lord of the bohemian king ferdinand from the house of habsburg to suppress the rebellion; the troops of the holy roman empire were sent to suppress the rebellion; a campaign began in which many european states were drawn into . against gasbooks soon to it is joined by denmark, sweden , and several other principalities in europe in august 1626, the troops of the holy roman empire inflict a crushing defeat on denmark following the war with it, emperor ferdinand ii issues a restitution decree.

it prohibits any manifestations of protestantism, and all the lands of the protestants come under the control of the holy roman empire , but sweden is categorically against this, it goes to war, capturing new enemy territories until november 1632, when the king died in battle, gustav ii adolf, the death of the king affected the morale of the soldiers of the swedish troops are beginning to suffer defeat. and the troops of ferdinand ii, no longer able to attack, the parties conclude the peace of prague, according to its terms, the protestants get back the occupied territories and are equalized in rights with the catholics, the opponents of the habsburgs , disappointed france declares war on spain, but in 1636 the habsburg army attacked france simultaneously from the south and the north in paris of this the troops of the holy roman empire did not expect to reach almost paris, but their lightning speed on the army was stopped

louis 13 february 15, 1637 ferdinand ii dies and takes over the empire. passes to his son ferdinand. the third war takes on a protracted character, the decisive battle was the battle of rock-rua, which france defeated spain, the empire lost its main ally, sweden, in turn , inflicts a series of defeats on the imperial army , captures the czech republic, bavaria and invades austria on october 24, 1648, the holy roman empire was forced to conclude with the opponent of the westphalian peace, according to its terms , the habsburgers, retained the eastern possessions, including austria and the czech republic, the neighboring lands of the holy roman empire, ilsaz and three bishoprics in the north-west, went to france, and paris becomes one of the most influential capitals of europe

, holland receives independence sweden reaches a new level for itself and becomes a european power, the holy roman empire itself . it broke up into more than 300 dwarf states subordinate to the emperor only formally. after the thirty years' war, and this series of conflicts was established, the first european order, westphalian, the second was the result of a slightly shorter series of upheavals from the great french revolution to the congress of vienna 26 years, finally the epoch from 14 to 45 another 31 years, two world wars and many local wars a tough cradle of the world order, which is crumbling now, and then again 30 years of chaotic no time or we can do it faster. how our time echoes not ours, let's talk, a wonderful historian and internationalist nikolai silaev from mgimo

kolya hello. in our country, how is any world order still operating now? or have we finally arrived at blessed anarchy? i don’t know how blessed she is and how blessed the order was, if it was, and international experts very often talk about anarchy as an inalienable property of the international system, but they don’t often define this anarchy, in my opinion the best metaphor. invented by a man who is to the theory of international relations. seemingly distant, ernest geilner compared the international system in one of his early works. uh, with orders in the atlas mountains let us recall the berbers, well, an anthropologist, a political philosopher, a very large political philosopher. ah, and hmm, he says

that there are, of course, there is another word there is clans. there are strong clans. there are clans, weak over them, there is no power that would determine the relationship between them and would set, for example, the regime for the use of violence, and that's it. this happens in the process of some kind of agreements. one clan may depend on another clan, another clan may be completely independent, they can sometimes agree on something together, but at the same time of them can continue and conflicts can continue and this one can be more or less, when, for example, more food is more order, when there is less food, you can conflict, while things remain that, even in the most acute conflicts between clans, are inviolable to a greater or lesser extent. lesser degree. that is, i will already give examples from, uh, the geographical area that is closer to me, well, for example, in the north caucasus in the pre-imperial era, but they

used special protection and roads along which they ran the code for winter and summer a pasture murder committed on such roads on such roads was considered especially serious. just like now, almost everyone, except ukraine, agrees that it is not good to shoot nuclear power plants. a and. a. in this sense, the waist, we will always have a different share of anarchy, but now, of course, it is obvious that there is no one clan that could claim. let's say on the royal status, even if it is compared with some kind of francs. and here we are in this state, it turns out that in this sense hegemony is more reliable there, at least it is clear who determines the rules. uh, so only a caveat that she will never be a complete hermony, also some kind of ideal, a type that does not occur in reality. well, right now, literally

in these years, we have had the very dubious pleasure of watching as a conflict, which, in general, could initially be considered a local ukrainian issue. the so-called is turning into a platform for the restoration of the world hierarchy. that is, this is a topic, generally speaking world world wars, as it used to be was? how does it happen? this jump from one level to another begins, but there are some hmm well, let's say local issues, and suddenly you are. i'm not sure there is maybe some kind of general jump rule here. and i 'll just remind you how hemingway failed locally. from a certain point of view, the conflict of the spanish civil war was put by an epigraph from john don that it was not sent to ring, for whom they call, do not send to ask, for whom the bell tolls. he calls you in this sense too, but then he tried to prove that this bell tolls for everyone,

that this bell tolls for its readers in america it rang after a while indeed. and that is, it is also like this. here is a debatable question. whether it concerns us or not, and uh, if you look at the conflicts in which russia has been involved in one way or another in one form or another since the collapse of the soviet union, there have been fully local conflicts. although , too, they could change their role. well, for example, the karabakh conflict, and about which there have never been disputes until recently, between russia or these disputes were somehow minimal, you can explain why they were minimal, because anyway, no one saw any prospects, so there’s nothing to argue about, but the bottom line is that their there were no conflicts, they also did not see prospects, but with this dispute, and then suddenly in the twentieth year with the connection of turkey with a deeper

passion for russia, it turned into not quite local. or how the ukrainian authorities last spring strongly pushed azerbaijani woman to open the second front? what if e? strongly intense this is the state of anarchy. it's an anarchic process, uh the players are looking for ways to uh hurt their opponent. and here, of course, everything comes from the other side. here, let's take it. eh, ossetian georgians or abkhazian georgians conflicts, they actually started as conflicts between communities. and uh, they grew. eh, to the bigger ones. uh, including under the influence of the interests of some external big

players. ah, when suddenly in the 2000s it turned out that the line of contact, uh georgians, ossetian between the territory controlled by the authorities of south ossetia, the territory controlled by the georgian authorities is also a fault line between russia and the nato military machine yes, with all the reservations about the fact that georgia has never been guarantees from nato, but political it was read that way and ah. in this sense, uh, and uh, the crisis in ukraine could remain local could remain local. if, uh, if the big players found a way to finish found an opportunity to take into account. interest in each other. that's where the opportunities came in. i know that you, as an expert , participated in the so-called minsk process for several years. now let's go everyone disown. everyone explains that no, we

didn’t mean it at all. here, if i may, your personal impressions count from the inside. uh, it was an attempt to negotiate something. and by the way, everyone was really brainwashing someone with someone and getting ready to strike. i think it was an attempt agree. yes, at the same time, uh, the goals were different, while the vision of the desired agreements was different, and the russian vision, by the way, always u was as close as possible to the text of the minsk agreements, but i think that it was an attempt to negotiate and well, here is francoisland and angela merkel so cheerfully tell how they wanted. russia, but at the same time, one more very curious thing is overlooked. and when they supported, e , a set of measures for the implementation of the minsk agreements in the un security council, when it was

enshrined in a security council resolution, he they wanted to deceive the un, they didn’t want the security council, as it didn’t exist, well, russian foreign minister lavrov recently mentioned this, but others don’t remember this. yes, it is, in my opinion. of course, they were cunning, and then they are cunning. and now then some were cunning. uh, because they, uh, probably proceeded from the fact that, well, sooner or later in russia, everything will change sooner or later, russia will reconsider its foreign policy, so we will agree on this for now, and then we'll see. well, uh, minsk agreements this document is very broad and there were many sides and there were many different approaches, including. who should carry out their political part, if we talk about the non-political part? well, uh, was it possible to agree on an effective ceasefire and the disengagement of forces with

an active ceasefire near dava- yes , sometimes it was possible to agree on the last truce e. well, and the latest agreements on the termination regime. fire, uh acted. e. well, let's say so more confidently than the previous one, and it was also possible to disengage forces agree. and if the forces are divorced, it means that people no longer shoot, which means that political mechanisms acquire a completely different role, a different meaning. plus. uh, it's only in february of the seventeenth year. uh, ukraine has made an official decision on the transport benefit. if this decision had not been made, if trade had continued, if ukrainian enterprises had continued to work on the don, which paid taxes to ukrainian budgets. that too would be a completely different context. these are long-suffering agreements, and the steinmeier formula, then there is a mechanism for the entry into force of the law on

a special procedure for local self-government in the donbass, uh. after all, this was also a part of large agreements, serious agreements on how to get out of the deadlock associated with the fact that this law does not enter into force, that it is necessary to hold elections and they talked about elections for some time. uh, serious enough, very tight. let's just say it's worth the point of view when everything collapsed. that's when it became clear that everything would be nothing, how far from the war from the war of action. i think it's e. what's first call? uh, there was a failure here, well, the first one out there from uh, maybe not. there , the last three last two, the failure of the agreement on the establishment of a coordinating council by representatives of the public of ukraine and donbass is the beginning of the twentieth year, if i am not

mistaken. ah, when this agreement, although it seemed, uh, so completely symbolic, but it assumed that it was possible to overcome this problem, which, in general , kiev invented for itself that it does not conduct direct negotiations, uh, with the republics of donbass and, as it were, official direct negotiations no, but there is some kind of advisory council that discusses something, and goes along with it. actually work, which is negotiation, which is free from these endless endless throwing of the ball. we are negotiating with them no in some places we are not negotiating. ah, the document was signed. and soon ukraine, in my opinion, two days later, ah, refused him. e,

withdrew his signature, referring to the fact that they need to consult with germany and what are they? well, they don’t approve of this, indeed the approach is european and when not only germany and france, but also when martin edik, in my opinion. and in the fall of last year, but i can confuse yes , there is an interview with a businessman about how the negotiations took place from her point of view, and he quite openly expressed the position there that both the osce and germany-france were categorically against any bilateral agreements between russia and ukraine well it's clear. in general, now it, of course, already has more such historical significance, but it is curious, but let's return to the great floor. er, to what extent , er, what is happening now can be considered the equivalent of a world war? i mean not scale. for now, thank god. and here is precisely the structural fact, as far as it is built.

it's, uh, like a new hierarchy. if yes, then it can, again for 30 years we will walk through the burning desert like previous times, or we will still be more agile this time. this is a very good question. uh, i totally agree that from a structural point of view this is a world war. as for the scale of actual military operations, otherwise this scale is determined not so much, but by the desire of the parties. how many of their opportunities are opportunities and with uh economics and opportunities associated with an escalation limit. we are witnessing a worldwide conflict that involves nuclear powers. and we are now seeing it in action. we are observing how nuclear deterrence works in such a conflict.

by the way, that it is not absolutely involved then? they are asymmetrically one directly the second not directly, but very actively. there is a very fine line here. uh, what is the status of the territory of ukraine and american citizens in arms, a formal declaration of war is a thing of so many ten years now yes, as far as duration is concerned. this is very such an interesting idea and an interesting historical idea that the world wars have been going on for about 30 years. both she and the third cycles

of hegemony are connected with the transition of the center a-a of the global capitalist system from one region to another from one country to another. but this is also a very european centrist view for the chinese. the world war began, if i don't confuse anything, in 1933 or 1935, at least in 1937. yes, and ended , uh, should it be considered a continuation of the korean war for them? and plus to this, but for them indeed, this chronology, which is very important for us, defining, because their official doctrine, which is laid down even directly in the chinese constitution, is 100 years of humiliation. mm, they have super wars until the victory of the communist party and a. or if we

look at the middle east, events that can also be regarded in the last decade. in what sense, as a prologue to this world conflict, it all started there in 2003 for some countries from 1991. that is, in this sense, the question, er, about 30 years is uh uh, this is a question that will be answered differently in every region of the world. we can imagine such a scenario for the development of the political situation of the military-political situation in the world. that the ukrainian conflict will become local? yeah well, i don't know if we want it or not, i guess let's wish for peace, wish for peace. this is correct. thank you very much , nikolai silaev from mgimo was with us in the studio. world confrontation or not until

we finally do it, but one thing is known, the number of countries involved or affected is growing our permanent author alexander popova discovered a plume in the warm regions in the haze. we are located in the city of agadir, which is 300 km from marrakech, and a stone's throw from the sahara, the golden beaches, the ocean and the warm climate attract crowds of tourists here . this region has long become interesting and the american military, it is at the agazira training grounds that the african lion is annually trained, the leading role. the us army is playing here, along with it, the organization of combat work is being worked out by the armed forces of the moroka. tunisia and senegal scenario international the military group confronts a developed and fairly well-equipped enemy, the practical part takes place at moroccan training grounds, which, according to legend, become the territories of fictional states, and training in morocco is very valuable for the military

and the united states, we gain extensive experience in interacting with aviation and artillery , armored forces and infantry, which is very hard to train. it's great to have exercises here in morocco with our partners. local media showed selected moments from the work of the headquarters. this is the commands in the background active staff work was behind the scenes reporting on a strike on air defense facilities of a mock enemy, the americans said that this s400 should be recalled that by now such a system was in service only in three countries: russia, china and turkey . we have been cooperating with morocco strategically for a long time. these exercises are very important for our relations. the participation of 7,000 military personnel of different nationalities allows us to conduct large-scale multifunctional exercises, our combat capabilities will increase significantly.

however, a little over a month ago, the news morocco flew around the world to supply ukraine with 20 t-72 tanks, the only of all african countries these tanks. she received from belarus 20 years ago. we hand, it seems to be really modernizing. then they were supposed to return home, but, apparently, someone decided otherwise , paid prague for repairs and forced morocco to transfer equipment to ukraine, this is a new world order, but we moroccans have good economic relations with both russia and america russia has never been our enemy we cooperate. many of our students study there in the east. there gets education and our diplomats. against the background of military mutual understanding between countries from below , completely different voices, people do not understand, why do americans come to them and why do they train? why russia or china should be enemies american soldiers have already come to morocco, but recently,

in addition to them, there were also french spaniards and senegalese, about 20 countries participated in the exercises. why do they train here in morocco say? i really don't understand this. the us army and the armed forces of less developed countries conduct exercises works out the destruction of russian- made equipment. perhaps the pentagon planned to demonstrate to friendly countries its ability to counteract and successfully hit the most modern systems in a similar way, the united states could once again show friends. the need to develop cooperation. after all, if american technology is capable of hitting russian anti-aircraft systems, then alexander popov needs to be bought from the confusion of the international review. from african countries that will be allowed indirectly involved in the american coalition of support

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march 3, a memorable date in the military history of russia march 3, 1799, the capture of the fortress by ushakov corfu, the russian squadron of ushakov stormed the island of corfu in the mediterranean sea, the decisive actions of the great naval commander made it possible to capture the impregnable fortress with minimal losses. the capture of corfu put an end to the claim to napoleonic france for mediterranean dominance. suvorov wrote to ushakov. why was i prikorfu at least a midshipman in nigeria, the largest economy and the most populated country in africa, 213 million. people passed the presidential elections in a sharp struggle, the candidate from the ruling party defeated bulatinubu.