vladimir putin signed a new basic law on citizenship, which simplifies the procedure for obtaining it, also provides for the deprivation of russian citizenship for discrediting the armed forces due to the commission of actions that pose a threat to national security. to document. an amendment has also been made to grant citizenship to a foreigner who has entered into a contract to serve in the russian army. in addition, the requirement of consent is excluded, the second parents of a foreign citizen receiving russian citizenship and a child born in a mixed marriage to deprive citizenship may, among other things, for acts of a terrorist orientation, serious crimes against the state, as well as for a crime in the field of drug trafficking and forgery of documents. the fsb prevented

sabotage at the power system facility. in the kaluga region, it was prepared by an underage supporter of neo-nazi ideology, he was going to set fire to an electrical substation in a cache equipped by a criminal, three improvised incendiary devices were found. also seized means of communication in relation to the detainee opened a criminal case bottle. for the sake of interest, i signed up with the bot of the master's corps. they told me everything is piled up, what are they? what are they doing. i became interested in this, no, they threw off the link neatly, to which i already unsubscribed. well, this is already getting further conversation after a long communication of different options. we agreed here at the substation, then i made it, and three bottles of watches were subjected to massive shelling by ukrainian militants. they hit peaceful neighborhoods with multiple

launch rocket systems, as well as heavy artillery, dozens have already been fired, strikes of ammunition fix the city center, and in the area of ​​​​the baraka palace, combinations also hit the republican stadium of the children's hospital , park and residential buildings, one of the shells hit a minibus, as reported by the mayor's office, 7 people were killed, including a child. and now our channel is broadcasting from the bank of russia glad to see you here at the bank of russia i welcome our online participants, a and today we have, in principle, a press conference of the chairman of the bank of russia lira nabiullina a and deputy chairman alexei bobotkin a and at the beginning of e, the statement of the chairman following the meeting of the board of directors. good afternoon. today we have decided to keep the key rate at 7.5% per annum.

inflation is shaping up slightly below our february forecast, while gdp growth is stronger this year. we expect the economic recovery to continue, and it may be accompanied by increased inflationary pressures. this will largely depend on factors on the demand side, if we see signs of such an acceleration in inflation that will threaten the achievement of the 4% goal in 2024, then we are already at the next meetings may need to raise the key rate. let me dwell on the arguments of our decision. the first annual inflation is temporarily at lower levels. many people have a question. why inflation in february hmm was 11%, e in march fell three times to 3.5%, although prices continue to rise. this decline

in inflation was expected and is due to the estimated base effect, finally in february, annual inflation reached 11%, but seven and six. e of them, uh, we received in march last year. uh, after that march withdrew from the calculation of annual inflation. it has sharply decreased and this effect will continue, and in april he emphasized that this was a temporary decrease in annual inflation. it should not be taken as a sure achievement. according to our forecast, inflation will be fixed at the target level only next year. uh, has been building up in recent months, sustained price pressures, for example, stripped of the volatile components of core inflation, are accelerating, though still below 4% yoy, with the current growth rate of the overall index consumer prices in annual terms for

several months at the level of four percent. and the important factors behind the acceleration of inflation are the revival of consumer demand . this can be judged by the latest data on household spending, primarily in the services segment, as well as an increase in demand for loans. consumption is supported by rising wages and improved consumer sentiment. consider trends. we raised our forecast for household consumption growth. at the same time, the acceleration of inflation, uh, is restrained by reasonable factors that turned out to be stronger and longer lasting. in particular, last year's record harvest is reducing further pressure on food markets. in addition, last year, many companies, anticipating difficulties with supplies , formed increased stocks of goods,

including due to a strong exchange rate. now they are gradually selling stocks and this may explain the relatively small price transfer, uh, the weakening of the ruble that occurred at the beginning of the year, apparently such a transfer will be more extended in time, and we will take this into account. inflation expectations of the population in april fell again, they are now slightly above the range of the seventeenth -twenties, when inflation was near the target, while the company's price expectations were mostly attributed to industries. ah, keep going up. taking into account the facts of lower price dynamics in the first quarter and the longer impact of one-time disinfection factors, we have reduced our inflation forecast for the current year by half a percentage point to four and a half to six and a half percent. let me remind you that the previous forecast was 5-7%, yes, we allowed for the possibility of more

a long deviation of inflation from the target than usual, so as not to impede the structural transformation of the economy, but 5-7% was not our unconditional target for this year. now we see that the economy is adapting faster. uh, in addition, due to a very significant one-time shift in the price level. last year, companies were able to quickly adjust their costs to changing conditions. an important role in the adjustment of the economy was also played by the expanded demand of the state. however, as the growth trajectory of the economy the level of excessive demand stimulus, if supply lags behind, could result in accelerated price growth in the next year, given the lags in the impact of monetary credit policy. we will have to

respond in a timely manner to this increase in the key rate. the second economic activity is recovering, given the faster adjustment of the economy, we have raised the forecast for gdp growth this year to 0.5 two percent by the end of next year, the economy will return to the levels of the end of 21 with growth rates. e, 0.5 2.5%. then she will rise to 1.5-2.5% per year adaptation of the enterprise to changing conditions. it continues to be supported by the expansion of private and public demand, in our estimation. today, the demand in the economy corresponds to the dynamics of the production of goods and services , the possibility of an accelerated increase in production is limited by resource constraints, primarily due to the rather tense situation in the labor market. and the demand

for labor continues to grow. and many companies experience difficulties in finding staff, this problem is especially acute in the manufacturing industry, according to our territorial subdivisions, companies show an increased demand for programmers, civil engineers , representatives of working specialties. this leads to higher wage retards, which labor productivity may not keep up with. the third monetary credit terms remain neutral the slope of the fz curve has become. even steeper, mainly due to lower rates, for short-term securities for up to 2 years. this reflects a downward correction. market participants' expectations regarding probability increase in the key rate so the market could react to statistics on the current

dynamics of inflation rates at the long end of the curve federal law has been at high levels since september last year , the main reasons are high uncertainty and the expectation of further expansion of the borrowing program from the budget . limited liquidity from the market in this segment. a even with these ofz yield levels in march, active growth continued in the credit market for corporate e, portfolios significantly increased largely due to the company's loans involved in large investment projects. such companies actively placed bonds in february of this year , there were noticeably more market placements than in the same month and 19-21, despite the fact that rates on corporate bonds are now higher than then. uh, the appetite of banks for risk has also increased in the retail market,

credit organizations are sensitive to the improvement in the situation in certain industries and the growth of wages, therefore they are ready to offer some borrowers more favorable conditions. besides, in the first quarter, banks received high profits, which allows them to feel more confident in issuing new loans. i want to note that march is only the first month of such a noticeable recovery and we need more data to assess the sustainability of this trend. in addition to the growth of consumer lending, there are other signs of a gradual decline in the propensity of the population to save, and in particular, the share of current ruble funds from the accounts of citizens has returned to peak values ​​at the end of the 21st year. this means that bank customers prefer a more liquid form of storing their funds, which make it possible to quickly direct

funds for purchases. a front to external conditions. threats to financial stability remain in the global economy, which will put pressure on global growth , on the other hand, this growth is supported by the opening of the chinese economy . settlements, conditions for creation and exchange technologies are fundamentally changing the world economy. it is likely that these trends will become less integrated and fueled by geopolitical tensions. for russia, the influence of both positive and negative factors from the external environment is restrained by sanctions, however , these effects will be transmitted primarily through the demand for russian

exports of their price and volume. in the first quarter , the value of exports decreased compared to last year, although it corresponded to e, the upper limit of values, previous years, imports continued to expand , taking this into account in the updated forecast of the balance of payments. we slightly downgraded our export forecast and raised our import and current account balance forecasts. as a result , it will decrease to 47 billion us dollars this year. now let's talk about the risks that may cause inflation to deviate from the baseline forecast. about inflationary risks are still more pronounced. first, we attribute to them a possible tightening of the sanctions regime. second, a worsening labor market deficit, which could slow down the structural lead transformation to growth. price. thirdly, there are risks that supply in the markets

for goods and services will lag behind the acceleration of consumer demand. in addition, we will continue to closely monitor the implementation of budgetary policy. in the base forecast. we proceed from the current budgetary plans for a tighter monetary policy. may be required in case of additional expansion of the budget deficit deficit. they are expenses. from the side of disinfection risks, one can single out a longer preservation of the high propensity of the population to save. in addition, expanded stocks of agricultural products can hold back price increases for a longer time. and the conclusion of our future decisions due to the lag of the monetary policy, future decisions on the key rate

will increasingly affect inflation will affect inflation next year, when it should return to the 4% target and gain a foothold on it. on this horizon remains very high uncertainty the range of risks is wide. at the same time , pro-inflationary factors still dominate among them. however, disinfection factors can demonstrate greater vigor. the updated average key rate forecast is 7.3 and 8.2% for the current year and 6 1/2-7.5% for the next year , and these ranges allow for various solutions. now our vision assumes, uh, a gradual increase in inflationary pressure until the end of the year at the next meetings. we will continue to evaluate the feasibility of raising the key rate in order to ensure that inflation is stabilized, with a target of near four percent in 24

and beyond. thank you, and colleagues, let's move on to your questions, please, uh, introduce yourself and name your publication. and anastasia please. hello savelyeva anastasia interfax and when you expect the weakening of the ruble will already be reflected in prices, will it be significant or due to the fact that we have reserves, it will be spread out, and we will not notice it at all. and one more question about the currency market. what should be the limit e for the purchase of foreign currency as part of transactions for the exit of unfriendly foreigners from russia, the sale of their assets here, but to smooth out the volatility of the foreign exchange market, can it be 150 million dollars, which, as we know , were spot on one-time transactions and one more question, is the transfer of subsidiaries

of foreign banks under the control of a russian bank under the control of a russian bank now being discussed? abroad, they will be transferred to the management of foreign assets here. the weakening of the ruble, however, is already having an effect on inflation ; other disinflationary factors are also at work. hmm, we really think that it will e be more extended in time. ah. right now, hmm, it's being held back by the factor that i mentioned, a lot of companies stocked before, did more, and did it harder. e rate, but, nevertheless, the weakening of the rate, which occurred at the beginning of the year, even if the rate remains at the current levels this factor in itself will be, uh, pro-inflationary for itself, what can i add here?

so now, with regard to the limits for making decisions by the government commission on making payments abroad, we support the establishment of such limits. hmm , as for the specific parameters, i think what the government commission will announce is, after all, the decision of the government commission. e hmm and really believe that e adoption has such limits. uh, it will help u reduce volatility, because hmm, such trades, if they are also large-scale, can create short-term volatility in the foreign exchange market. but once again i would like to emphasize the speech, in no case does it mean that we are going to influence the level of the course through this. we have a floating one. and, as for the possibility of transferring assets under the management of russian e-assets. uh, instead of allowing foreign u to go

around. uh, well, these decisions must be made with very good reasons related to the stability of the functioning of the russian economy in the banking sector. we do not consider this price. forest-like colleagues, please, dmitry dmitry butenko 23 24th year in terms of inflation, well, somewhere by 1/2%, well, somewhere by half a percent lower than you expected, nevertheless, your signal remained exactly the same and in your speech. you seem more certain than you used to say about what on the next dates you'll be considering on a number of occasions. yes, there is some possibility of raising the key rate. well, not a downgrade. it's clear. and you intend to make your signal from hard to hard. yes, there is a verbal performance of the game, it seems to us so, or it has remained the same.

what are the current cash loan terms. after the revision of your forecast, they have become more stringent, less stringent, or monetary credit conditions have remained the same. we think they're staying. hmm, about the same neutral, there are fluctuations. there are some inconsistencies. not really. we hmm here's our logic is that we see that pro-inflation prevails. risks although our key rate forecast, if you look at this year, he admits some possibility of lowering the rate, but uh, nevertheless, we consider it more likely to continue to consider the rate increase more likely, which means that the probability has decreased there. i do not presume to argue, we will look at the factors. but, perhaps, here is an important aspect that i once again emphasized. we are now looking at how our decision will already affect next year's inflation,

because next year we really do declare that we want to return inflation to the target of four percent, this year. she can be above the target, because the structural adaptation that occurs faster, but we will take into account. let's take into account all the risks in order to bring inflation back to four percent, just maybe, i will also say that the forecast itself, the revision of the forecast for monetary credit conditions, probably will not affect the specific conditions monetary credit policy, but also accordingly, we will evaluate the need to assess the feasibility. uh, raising the rate with taking into account the fact that would return inflation to the goal of four next year. thank you the next question is online from tatyana lastochkina of the kurskaya pravda newspaper, please good afternoon

, dear colleagues. still, i would like to clarify. uh, it has already been said about inflation that it has decreased, you explained why, but nevertheless, because of the weak ruble, our economy and enterprise are in great need of money, and yet. why is the central bank not considering the possibility of reducing the key rate and is there still a chance that this will happen? made? thank you thank you but the fact that annual inflation figures are falling is not in itself a reason to lower the rate our monetary policy is lagging it does not affect the economy lagged and it is looking to the future hmm including inflationary expectations of business investors. here's an annual inflation rate that's really declining it shows the past it reflects average price increases over the past 12 months and uh we had

very low inflation hmm in the second half next year, but from the fourth of last year, but from the fourth quarter, it is accelerating and, uh, the monthly rate. now the season is flattened already at the 4 percent level and uh, so uh, the sharp slowdown in inflation that you can see in the digital annuals already happened last summer and uh, we reacted then. uh, rather quick rate cuts last summer and in september from 10pm to 7 1/2% hmm and uh, so now in order to uh meet the 4% inflation target next year. we don't see any reason to go down at the moment. rates, uh, but in order for hmm to have affordable credit for the economy for businesses, it just needs price

stability. predictably, low inflation makes more affordable loans for economic restructuring. please, maria front row. stepanova and i have a few questions first. and what options were considered today at the key rate at the board of directors and, secondly, regarding mortgages. well, there have been many proposals recently regarding preferential mortgages, for example, preferential mortgages for officials, and or extending subsidized mortgages to the secondary market. and how does the regulator look at these proposals and do you participate in discussions? thank you today at the meeting, uh, the board of directors considered two options and raising the rate and uh, keeping the rate at the current level, the decision was made to keep the rate, however. uh

, we also considered the option of raising the rate, with regard to the development of mortgages, and here are the programs that you mentioned. hmm, with regard to preferential mortgage programs for civil servants. we do not offer specific seen. but as far as i understand, we are talking simply about changing the mechanism for supporting civil servants, and moving away from subsidies to preferential mortgages. yes, probably this will allow him more number of civil servants. uh, it improves living conditions, maybe even with the same support parameters, but in general, with regard to benefits for the secondary market, and you know our common position is that broad preferential programs. they are effective as anti-crisis measures, but then they should be curtailed and, uh, we should move on to targeted programs. and what concerns targeted programs. i think that, uh, it would be very useful

to extend them to the secondary market, because this is a targeted program, after all, this is not support for developers, but support for specific categories of people, and it doesn’t matter how they improve their living conditions by buying a home in the primary market or in the secondary market, therefore, in our opinion, could be extended to the secondary market. thank you yes dmitry please first row. dmitry moroka, russia 24 elvirovsky ships good afternoon, firstly, i would to join in the high appraisal of your work from the outside, and the head of the fed , jerome powell, who said the other day what you did, the maximum in order to reduce the impact of sanctions on russia and here is such an assessment. i would like to wish the central bank further fortitude, but the second is the issue of voluntary savings of citizens, which you developed into the system together with the ministry of finance. but tell me, the ministry of finance believes that the profitability of these savings. uh, it will be even higher than

for bank deposits. how can this be guaranteed by what? thank you, but really on voluntary, generally voluntary, the development of voluntary accumulation of long-term savings. this is an important priority in our work together with the ministry of finance, because it will also allow people to get new forms of saving money for a long time. for the economy, longer uh long resources, really voluntary accumulation can also give a higher return uh compared to deposits, because investments are made for a long time hmm and he can have a fairly diversified wide portfolio of different kind of assets, uh, and it is not necessary to invest in some short-term securities, maybe in long-term ones. uh, so this is quite possible. of course, we are closely

monitoring what concerns, for example , non-state pension funds, and for their investment strategies. then, that they choose the assets that are most attractive under the available opportunities, protecting the rights of future retirees and those who invest in their long-term funds. in addition, there was a live broadcast from the bank of russia, let me remind you today, the regulator decided to keep the key rate at the same level of 7.5% of the dpr was created by the republican center for unmanned systems. the essence of the lesson is to prepare the cadet to work with real devices. no more

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