hello on the air of the international review of the studio fyodor lukyanov today in the program of the international review of the event of the week of the chronicles facts comments. the results of the turkish elections are now exactly the second round of a divided country. international discharge, how the luxury of reducing voltage leads to its growth materials of our program. mishuta

zil is a german of turkish origin, probably the most famous and most ardent supporter of erdogan in the world. by the way, in germany, where the largest turkish diaspora lives, recepta and erdogan won. in the first round of presidential the election of his rival kemal kyzydaraglu the intrigue continues, the fate of the turkish presidency will be decided in the second round. after a week of passion. before the first vote , they warmed up to the entire international community, openly sympathizing with the applicant. now in western commentary. disappointment seeps through, but the result is not a foregone conclusion those who predicted turkey's toughest elections in decades were right. the first round of elections

was held, with a record voter turnout of 89% , erdogan confidently won in fifty-one provinces of turkey and his rival kemal, when chudaraglu in the thirty remaining major cities, including istanbul and ankara voted for the opposition candidate, but there the gap between the candidates is no more than 2%. but the incumbent president confidently wins in all the northern black sea provinces of the country. among them, sinop samsung trabzon is noticeably inferior to its opponent in the south , almost the entire mediterranean, the coast is beyond the reach of the road. these are provinces from the world of aydin mugla, antalya mersin adena. haitai, moreover, the gap between candidates with the exception of the last two reaches 30%.

at the same time, the central part of the country, the religious and conservative turkish hinterland, supported erdogan in the province of hatay, the gap of 1% a suffered from the february earthquake in the other two gaziantep and kahramon, marash, the overwhelming majority among erdogan's supporters . the east and south-east of turkey are completely on the side of kalachdaraglu in the provinces mardin deyar batyr shirnak and hockey, where predominantly kurds live, the gap in favor of the opposition candidate reaches 50%, by most foreign sites, unlike inside the turkish vote won, won the kalach-dar oglu erdogan won in france germany norway and north africa in russia voted for his opponent. but is it possible to take it as it is customary? according to the number of votes, erdogan won abroad even in the first round and gained more than 50% of the support of all voters , mainly due to germany, where there is a large turkish diaspora. and the prospects

for the decisive round will talk with our good friend and urologist pavel shlykov from isa pavel hello what was unexpected in the first round and how these surprises can manifest themselves in the second, well, the main, but unexpected moment was that the shinanogan is the third person in this shortlist with uh, electoral results scored so many almost 3 million and obviously that this will become an important factor in the runoff campaign. and the subject of the struggle between the two main contenders was another unpleasant surprise, rather it was for the opposition kemal kalovich dar glu, who, according to almost most sociological polls ahead of a few percent, and on some issues even almost 10%, e of his

main competitor, the incumbent president rejeta, and she and he received less, almost again, the percentage did not win. in the first round, and preparing for a very difficult one, but when choosing the opposition, it came from the fact that they would lead immediately, yes. she hoped that a , in conditions where the rating of the incumbent president shows a downward trend , is enough money for a while, and the rating of the opposition, which was able to consolidate and nominate a single candidate, however, is not a single candidate that many counted on in the kemaljakovic team was extremely popular measures the capital of ankara and the mayors of turkey's largest city of istanbul , respectively, mansur, i am your mother of the corner , and they are always

in the lead during this preparatory period for elections. and by the way, speaking of sampling, malikovich in the corner of the road has accumulated discord in the coalition of six positional parties for a long time negotiations were going on and the result of these negotiations was a very strange configuration, what will happen, and the presidential candidate is kemal, and in his team. popular measures and the leaders of all six parties will receive the positions of vice president, we can imagine that in the case of kemalakovich daruglu, what the political system of the turkish republic will look like yes, one president , six vice presidents, uh, and a coalition that does not have, as we already now see in a parliament with a serious potential for carrying out non-compromises and non-compromises with other political forces of their legislative initiatives. here you mentioned leg seeds, but for obvious reasons, we treat them, he especially

has a phd and is portrayed as a nationalist and xenophobe. well, that is the anti-migration agenda, and apparently, it turned out that it resonates more with the mood from the break than they thought. xena nagan was born in the sixty- seventh year in the turkish province of the games in azerbaijan. family 89 graduated from the faculty of business administration of marmara university in istanbul, where he also received a master's degree in financial law specialist in russia ukraine and the cis countries in lived and worked in azerbaijan in the nineties, first in the office of the second azerbaijani president, abulfaz ilchibey, and then for representatives of the turkish cooperation agency for the coordination of tik, which is considered the main instrument of turkey's soft power in the world . in 2004, he created and headed the center for international relations and strategic analysis of turkmens 2009 he

defended his dissertation on the formation of the russian direction in turkey's foreign policy in the context of globalization nationalists in 2011 he was elected a member of the turkish parliament the parties of the nationalist movement were davlet bakhchili. however, he was later expelled from the party because of disagreements with its chairman by a court decision, the politician was restored, but after 2 years he was expelled again. since then, he has not been a member of any party, like many other oppositionists. agan believes that the country needs to return to a parliamentary form of government promises to raise the minimum wage to fight corruption and guarantee freedom of the media within the country in foreign policy for friendship and good faith relations with both east and west and is ready become a mediator in resolving the conflict between russia and ukraine, ogan advocates a more active military intervention in

turkey in syria so that there are no bulls of the kurdistan workers' party left on its territory at all . and sociology showed that, after all, the voter is more interested and worried about the economy, turkey in recent years has been at the peak of the financial and economic crisis, one of the most difficult in the recent history of the country. uh, lyra can tell that in the middle of the 2000s years, and one dollar was worth one lira there 20 kurush now one dollar is about 20 lira, we can imagine yes what scale and what speed of inflation, it especially accelerated after 2017-2018. and by the way, this was due to the sanctions that were imposed against

turkey by the western allies and the united states and a number of european countries, which introduced imba dual-use technology supply agencies, especially and froze cooperation in the technical field. and finally, sanctions in the energy sector, which initiated the european union and literally last fall, these sanctions were extended. and that's the topic of sanctions, really. it sounds in turkey in two ways on the one hand. this is a question of how cooperation with russia will be arranged and how economically the potential of this cooperation will be realized, and on the other hand. this is actually an internal turkish topic, because these sanctions hit the national economy very painfully and hit the well-being of literally every turk very painfully, as far as the migrant agenda is concerned. well look at the facts, and the number of migrants

only syrians. yes, but it is estimated at several million, and someone says that about 4 million is only seven. and this is understandable. why, because a huge number of undocumented migrants. and now he will feel the flow of illegal migration very much the second moment - this is a natural increase in the number of syrian refugees of the young population. e extremely fertile. and among the turks , the fertility rate has only been declining in recent decades and naturally without an influx of additional ones. uh migrants, the increase in the number of syrians was 300 350 people in a day. this means that a number of areas, and a whole number or in turkey, are becoming more

arab and less turkish. there you can hear arabic more often than turkish. this is extremely irritating to the nationalist-minded electorate. yes, and it even annoys the kurt population, because it’s impossible to speak kurmanji calmly, as it turned out, you can speak arabic, by the way, uh, uh, what is kemal kalovich, yes, uh, in his statements after the first round , but began to pedal the anti-migrant, and the agenda is created, in my opinion, a number of risks for him, because on the eve of the elections a situation developed that the peoples' democracy party, which is often called the kursk party, did not nominate its candidate for the presidential elections. and i remember that in 2018, and such a candidate, but from the opposition and this

party of the people's democracy, was a very charismatic politician from the village of khatildash. and a person who infects supporters with his magnetism, and in my opinion extremely promising, given the peculiarity of political culture, turkey, where charismatics just e and attract and achieve results. here, let's now about the most important thing for us. eh, we had a lot of turkish guests in our studio during the election campaign, and they all said about the same thing and that, of course, oglu eh, he would move to the west , but in principle, he is a moderate reasonable person. he understands the importance of russia. nothing will radically change. and suddenly, uh, kemal, stew takes, i would say, a rabid anti-russian position. what happened it seems to me that this is partly a reflection of what, uh, whose party

ekimalkovich headed the road and tried to slightly reformat the national republican one. a party, making it such an all-encompassing party that will be liked by a larger number of citizens of the republic than this has traditionally been for the center-left parties of the people's republican party. after the arrival of bulent agvita there in the seventies, and kemal kalovich brought taro to the corner. this is new in the strategy of the people's republican party, and it seems to me that this is an aspiration, but it looks like a candidate from the united the opposition, as a candidate of the party, which became much more of such an all-inclusive coverage than was typical for the irp. and pushes akimali kalych dara corner to make a statement that if we look at them in sequence, and does not evoke a feeling of some kind of strict logic. kemal.

in the spring of 22, nikolaevich dar ugol declares that you will put the question to a vote in parliament . he will liquidate nato bases in turkey, so to speak, we will expel nato from our land, and kemaldar blue declares that we will support it. and literally through uh a couple of months kemalkovich, the gift of the corner declares that he will support. uh, a pro-western course and it seems that on the one hand there are kemal emissaries. nikolaevich dara ugle, who arrived in moscow at the end of april, presented his open letter to the russian public of the russian russian expert community, in which a very conciliatory tone is such, a restrained and very caressing the russian ear. uh, that is to say, xp and the russian layman were formulated

that yes, the value of russian tourist relations of a strategic nature and strategic partnership in the whole hmm syria , so to speak, the sphere of important e-e for turkey has enduring value. and if i come to power there as president, otherwise all this will continue. they say that another audience is turned into another audience, kemal, kalovich, the gift of the corner makes different accents. you know, this is actually called the word populism. erdogan is being blamed, but this is definitely populism. in my opinion. this is one of such nominal features of the political culture of turkey a and what was used by uh, politicians, a and the right wing and left wing. yes, literally. in the sense of the word each political party after the transition to a competitive multi-party political system used populist rhetoric

, the difference in the emotional and psychological portrait. e two candidates on the one hand a man who is willing to break. the foundations are ready. so to speak, to challenge even their western ally , whose economic and military-strategic potential is an order of magnitude greater than turkey’s a, and this is obvious to all kemalkovich, a gift to a corner from a person of the exact opposite nature. he's over inclined to seek a compromise, but to search for some points of contact with the treaty. he doesn't raise his voice. he is so emotionless. although and here is what he began to speak. uh, in such a snooty tone. uh, after uh, frankly speaking, not the best performance in the presidential elections in the first round of the presidential elections. it can be said that he wants to show that yes, here he is, uh, not so harmless not with such, but a calm old man,

like him, uh draw uh, and supporters and of course, the opponent should especially emphasize this. in general, i understood. uh, classic us always helps. this is chatsky against molchalin , only a little older. well, yes, if you use incomprehensible, oh well, well, we'll see soon. which popular one will win? thank you very much. we had a visitor. thank you while power is being shared in turkey, life does not stand still. on wednesday. erdogan announced the extension for another 2 months of the grain deal of the agreement on the safe export of agricultural products from ukrainian ports, which is a plus for him personally, but russian demands to remove restrictions on the fertilizer bank are not satisfied with another gesture. good will. received in july. a new scramble, when the grain deals were negotiated more than a year ago, some saw them as a harbinger

of peace talks. it turned out, on the contrary, just since then the topic of cessation of hostilities has not been raised any more, and in recent months the degree of intransigence has become absolute. well, there is an underlying feeling that the military situation has come to a standstill in principle , there is no need to wait for shifts, apparently this is the reason for the sadness of brazil's beginnings a couple of weeks ago now. i am willing and conducive. the ceasefire was declared almost simultaneously the vatican and a group of african countries led by south africa, and respect for success is hard to believe, but there is a more detailed initiative for europe , the special representative of the prc government for eurasian affairs, lihui, set off, started from kiev, then poland germany france brussels , the headquarters of the european union and moscow, the events are not ordinary, first of all for the reason that china, until recently, eschewed complex

diplomatic missions, and beijing’s nomination of a 12-point plan for the ukrainian crisis in february was perceived mainly, as a ritual, however, it seems that the chinese authorities now regard diplomacy as a necessary tool for strengthening positions , they talked about this with two participants in the club's just concluded central asian conference. valdai community if so, it seems to me that the tourist is such an opinion that china should be more active and china really heard, when they expect from beijing almost an application for world domination , they strangely position their hut exclusively on the edge of china has already reached the size when it understands that he can't, first be from uh aside from global processes. and moreover, this need is not only an internal dog, a chinese one. well, the external one, where

the outside world itself is gaining on it. yes, in the sense that the most powerful economy in the world, which in a number of parameters is no longer the second, but it is equal there in the first economy and even ahead, therefore the outside world itself. he's seriously pushing. yes, that is, we need a chinese position, we need chinese efforts. moreover, it’s not only developing these, let’s say, countries that, well , are often really seen in china some leader of the developing world, but also the smell of the ukrainian conflict china, of course, worries and geographically not so far away and the growth is fraught with unpredictable consequences, deprived of time. why not earlier why? only when is the anniversary huh? here is the beginning of the operation and china suddenly saw this twelfth point on e, the plan , because we created that if it were then there would be a big risk, because everything will be there, that is, they say that there, especially in the west, and that’s all, strong stronger, certainly criticism. uh,

china because they would say that china well and kra- some in a scooter role, so that russia will succeed from this process. eh, like, well, pauses, yes, that is. well, now i think, just the emotions have already changed a little, so, uh, just a little bit amazing is not necessary, that is, to find everything at once. with uh, a way out of this crisis , and most importantly, for everyone to begin to realize that is, if their interests are their positions, you need to start uh . this is a conversation, of course, in beijing they would prefer not to take on too much, but very trump is changing rapidly, and especially the most important thing at the beginning of the pandemic. uh, some 19 china turned out to be, well, in a certain shock when i saw that this situation was as externally favorable as possible, it changed and

will be so that it turns out, because of its equidistance, from everyone, it also turned out to be without a serious external political here this , but powerful support, when he began to experience pressure from the united states, and the fact that the united states is soldered at the same time can be a block of not just allies. ah, but the countries that are ready to instantly connect with him even on such ones. knocking as an anti-chinese constructor , it turned out to be very serious, so china realized that its silence is now playing against it and therefore participation in all these mediations is the use of its most powerful economy. for example, why for saudi and iran the position of china was interesting and in general , participation is possible, well, because there is, the yuan, how serious it is. right now, here is a financial instrument that is practically one of the possible ones today, which at least somehow somewhere can be, let's say, secure

themselves and those who worry about the dollar in beijing are well aware that the russian ukrainian plot is incomparably more complicated than , for example, the iranian saudi one, which was recently handled beautifully and, of course, china would like to share the responsibility recently there, just like that, recovery is like with autistic arabia and iran just to show. yes, that's what chinese e, and not only has some kind of vision under well, but there you pout more specifically. uh, plan of action. i think in ukrainian for the time being it still remains in field abstract there, that is, ideas, because if we turned to turn to history. uh, now there are earlier third parties, and sentences around nuclear north korean clothes, then you introduced yourself at the beginning of the three parties, and then these parties. and about the ukrainian crisis. why not start with some, that is, from the small multilateral

formation, and then move on to the big, that is, the verdict on the formation. hand kim song, an opposition cartoonist who has been working for western publications on the panda's diplomat says chinese diplomacy everything is clear without words italian emmanuel del rossa another diplomatic clash between beijing and washington on the ball, this is how us-china relations are written the answer is chinese blue-times of the osian countries, on the way to china, an american tank got stuck in a puddle of sanctions, so it is written in the picture and a man who looks like biden says push patrick chapat and switzerland tiktok like a spy tool of the chinese intelligence agencies another dance video with a real one of the soldiers screams and i will kill

himself. the longer the hostilities drag on, the sharper the issue of expediency is again started talking about freezing, as on the korean peninsula 70 years ago by the way, when the deadlock on the fronts became clear. diplomat with the participation of rather exotic intermediaries. in the end , it brought the war to a halt. this stop without a peace treaty continues to this day , after the advertisement, let's talk about how they generally get out of acute international crises. what does experience teach about the recent past? burger and barcelona chicken burger at a bargain price at a tasty and point, as well as in abundance. just order through food delivery services so that

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may 19 one hundred years since the birth of the main soviet americanist and one of the most significant international affairs scholars, academician georgy arbatov was a bright and courageous man at the front during the great patriotic war and in subsequent activities, as one of his students notes, georgy's hallmark has always been elegance and intellectual and in human behavior. arbat