from the world of aydin, mughlo-antalya mersin adana hatay, and the gap between candidates, with the exception of the last two, reaches 30%. at the same time, the central part of the country, the religious and conservative turkish hinterland, supported erdogan in the province of hai, which suffered from the february earthquake, a gap of 1%, and in the other two gaziantep and kahramon. mash has an overwhelming majority among supporters and erdogan east and southeast turkey is completely on the side of kalach dragols in the provinces of mardin deyar batyr shirnak and hockey, where predominantly kurds live, the gap in favor of the opposition candidate reaches 50% in most foreign polling stations, in contrast to the turkish vote inside the victory, won the deck oglu erdogan won in france germany norway and north africa in russia

voted for his opponent, but if we count, as is customary by the number of votes, then for abroad, erdogan won even in the first round and gained more than 50% of the support of all voters , mainly due to germany, where there is a large turkish diaspora. and the prospects for the decisive round, let's talk with our kind another turkologist pavel shlykov from isa pavel greetings what was unexpected in the first round and how these surprises can manifest themselves in the second, well, the main, ah, unexpected moments was that the third person in this shortlist of elective results scored so many almost 3 million and it is obvious that this will become an important factor in the second round of the election campaign. and the subject of the struggle between the two main

contenders is another unpleasant surprise, rather it was for the opposition to malkovich, who, by almost the majority opinion polls were ahead by a few percent, and according to some polls even by almost 10%, e, her main competitor , the incumbent president, regget, she and he received less, almost again, did not win a percentage. in the first round, and preparing for a very difficult one, but when choosing a position, it came from the fact that they would win immediately, yes. she hoped that in conditions when the rating of the incumbent president shows a downward trend, there is enough money for a while, and the rating of the opposition, which was able to consolidate and put

a single candidate, however, not the single candidate that many counted on in the kemaljakovic team, a gift to the corner of the extremely popular measures of the capital of ankara and the measures of the largest city of turkey, istanbul , respectively, mansur, i am your cream mother of the corner , and they but during uh, that preparatory period to the elections are always in the lead. and by the way, the selection of malikovich is expensive to the power of discord in a coalition of six positional parties for a long time negotiations were going on and the result of these negotiations was a very strange configuration that would be, and the presidential candidate is kemal, and in his team. popular measures and the leaders of all six parties will get the vice president positions, we can imagine that in the case of kemalakovich daruglu, what the political system of the turkish republic will look like yes, one president , six vice presidents, uh, and a coalition that does not

have, as we already see in parliament with a serious potential for carrying out, without consulting uncompromising with other political forces, their legislative initiatives. here you mentioned hay leg, but for obvious reasons, we treat them, especially he has a doctoral degree in haem, and he is portrayed as a nationalist and xenophobe. well, that is, the anti-migration agenda. and apparently, it turned out that it resonates more with the mood of the shaved one than you thought? sinanagan was born in the sixty- seventh year in the turkish province of games in azerbaijan. family 89 graduated from the faculty of business administration of marmara university in istanbul, where he also received a master's degree in financial law specialist in russia ukraine and the cis countries in

lived and worked in azerbaijan in the nineties, first in the office of the second azerbaijani president, abulfaz ilchibey, and then for representatives of the turkish cooperation agency for the coordination of tik, which is considered the main instrument of turkey's soft power in the world . in 2004, he created and headed the center for international relations and strategic analysis of turkmens 2009 he defended his dissertation on the formation of the russian direction in turkish foreign policy in the context of globalization nationalist in 2011 he was elected a member of the turkish parliament from parties. analytical movement davlet bakhchili, however, later expelled from the party due to disagreements with its chairman , the politician was restored by court decision, but 2 years later he was expelled again. since then, he has not been a member of any party, like many other oppositionists. agan believes that the country needs to return to a parliamentary form of government promises to raise the minimum

wage to fight corruption and guarantee freedom of the media within the country in foreign policy for friendship and good neighborly relations with both east and west and is ready to become a mediator in resolving the conflict between russia and ukraine, ogan advocates a more active military intervention in turkey in syria so that there are no bulls of the kurdistan workers' party left on its territory at all . and sociology showed that, after all, the voter is more interested and worried about the economy, turkey in recent years has been at the peak of the financial and economic crisis, one of the most difficult in the recent history of the country. uh, lyra can tell that in the middle of the 2000s years, and one dollar was worth one lira there. eh, 20 kurush now one dollar is about 20 lira,

we can imagine. yes what is the scale and what is the rate of inflation, it accelerated especially after 2017-2018. and by the way, this was due to the sanctions that were imposed against turkey by the western allies and the united states and a number of european countries, which introduced imba technology supply bodies of double value, especially and froze cooperation in the technical field. and finally, sanctions in the energy sector, which initiated the european union and literally last fall, these sanctions were extended. and that's the topic of sanctions, really. it sounds in turkey in two ways on the one hand. this is a question of how cooperation with russia will be organized and how economically the potential

of this cooperation will be realized, and on the other hand. this is actually an internal turkish topic, because these sanctions hit the national economy very painfully and hit the well-being of literally every turk very painfully, as far as the migrant agenda is concerned. well look at the facts, and the number of migrants only syrians. yes, but it is estimated at several million, and someone talks about about four million, one and then seven. and this is understandable. why, because a huge number of unregistered migrants. and so. he will feel the flow of illegal migration very much. the second moment is the natural increase in the number of syrian refugees in the young population. e extremely fertile. and among the turks , the fertility rate has only been declining in recent decades and, of course, without

an influx of additional ones. uh migrants, the increase in the number of syrians was 300-350 people in a day. this means that a number of areas, and a whole number or in turkey, are becoming more arabic and less turkish. there you can hear arabic more often than turkish. this is extremely irritating to the nationalist-minded electorate. yes, and it even annoys the kurt population, because it is impossible to speak kurmanji calmly, as it turned out, you can speak arabic, by the way, uh, uh, what is kemal kalovich, yes, uh, in his already statements. after the first round, he began to pedal the anti-migrant, and the agenda is created, in my opinion, a number of risks for him, because on the eve of the elections

a situation developed that the peoples' democracy party, which is often called the kursk party, did not nominate its candidate for the presidential elections. and i remember that in 2018, but such a candidate, but from the opposition and this party of democracy of the people, was very charismatic, and a politician, if we want deltazh, but a person who, with his magnetism, infects supporters and and in my opinion, extremely promising , given the peculiarity of the political culture of turkey where charismatics just e and attract and achieve results. here, let's now about the most important thing for us. eh, we had a lot of turkish guests in the studio during the election campaign and they all said about the same thing that, of course, the treasure trove of dar oglu e will move to the west, but in

principle, he is a moderate reasonable person. he understands the importance of russia . nothing will radically change. and suddenly, uh, kemal, stew takes, i would say, an aggressive anti-russian position. what happened it seems to me that this is partly a reflection of what uh, the party he headed, uh , kemalkovich, dear, stupidly, tried to reformat the people's republican party a little, making it such an all- encompassing party that would be liked, but by a larger number. citizens of the republic than this was traditionally for the center-left parties of which people's republican party, after the arrival of the bulletin and jivit there in the seventies, was kemal kalovich, he brought the gift of the corner, this is new in the strategy of the people's republican party, and it seems to me that this aspiration, but it looks as a candidate for

united opposition as a candidate from a party that has become much more inclusive than was typical of the irp. and pushes akimali kalych dara corner to make a statement, which if we look at them in sequence, and do not evoke a feeling of some kind of strict logic. markovic gift corner in the spring of 22 years declares that you will put to a vote in parliament the issue of the liquidation of nato bases in turkey, so to speak, we will expel nato from our land, and kemal casinor blue declares that we will support it. a literally in a couple of months kemalkovich, the gift of the corner declares that he will support. e, a pro-western course, and one gets the feeling that on the one hand, the isars of kemal kalachdara corner, who arrived in moscow at the end of april, m. e, presented his open letter

from the russian public to the russian russian expert community, in which a very conciliatory tone is such, a seasoned a and very caressing the ears of the russian uh, so to speak, xp and the russian layman, it was formulated that yes, the value of russian tourism relations of a strategic nature and strategic partnership in the whole hmm syria, so to speak , the sphere of important uh for turkey has enduring value. and if i come to power and become president, otherwise all this will continue. they say that another audience is turned to another audience, kemal, klych, makes a gift to the corner, other accents. you know, this is generally called the word populism. erdogan is being blamed, but there is certainly populism here. in my opinion. this is one of those, uh, immanent, uh, features of the political culture

of turkey a and what was used by, uh, politicians, and right wing and left wing. yes , literally. in the sense of the word each political party after the transition of the competitive multi-party political system used populist rhetoric, the difference in the emotional and psychological portrait. e two candidates on the one hand a man who is willing to break. the foundations are ready. that is to say , challenge. even with its western ally , the economic and military-strategic potential of which is an order of magnitude greater than that of turkey, and this is obvious to everyone to malkovich, the gift of a corner from a person of the exact opposite character. he is more inclined to find a compromise, but to look for some points of contact with the treaty. he doesn't raise his voice. he is so emotionless. although that's

what he began to speak. uh, in such a snooty tone, and after uh, frankly, not the best performance in the presidential elections in the first round of the presidential elections. we can say that he wants to show that yes, here he is, uh, not so harmless not with such, but a calm old man, like him, uh draw uh, and supporters and of course, the opponent especially emphasizes this. in general, i understood. eh, classic. it always helps us. this is chatsky against molchalin, only a little older. well, yes, if you use incomprehensible, oh well, well, we'll see soon. which popular one will win? thank you very much. our guest was pavel lykov thank you while power is being divided in turkey, life does not stand still. wednesday. erdogan announced the extension for another 2 months of the grain deal of the agreement on the safe export of agricultural products from

ukrainian ports, which is a plus for him personally, but russian demands to remove restrictions on the fertilizer bank are not satisfied with another or with good will. received in july. a new scramble, when the grain agreements were negotiated more than a year ago, some saw them as heralding peace talks. it turned out, on the contrary, just since then the topic of cessation of hostilities has not been raised any more, and in recent months the degree of intransigence has become absolute. well , an underlying feeling is growing that the military situation has come to a standstill, it is not worth waiting for fundamental shifts, apparently, this is caused by this. a bunch of undertakings a couple of weeks ago brazil. now i am ready and contribute. ceasefire the vatican and a group of african countries, led by south africa, announced almost simultaneously, and respect for success is hard to believe, but there is a more detailed initiative for europe

, the special representative of the prc government for eurasian affairs, lihui, set off, started from kiev , then poland germany france brussels , the headquarters of the european union and moscow, the events are not the rank and file, primarily for the reason that until recently china has eschewed complex diplomatic missions. yes, and the nomination of a twelve-point plan by beijing in february on the ukrainian crisis was accepted mainly, as a ritual, however, the chinese authorities now have a worse attitude towards diplomacy, as a necessary tool for strengthening positions , they talked about this with two participants in the just completed central asian conference of the club. valdai com. also if such, it seems to me that the tourist is such an opinion that in order for china to be more active and china hears , indeed, when they expect from beijing

almost an application for world domination, they strangely position their hut exclusively on the edge. china has already reached the point where it understands that it cannot, in the first place, be uh aside from global processes. and moreover, this need is not only internal chinese itself. well, the external one, where the outside world itself is gaining on it. yes, in the sense that the most powerful economy in the world, which in a number of parameters is no longer the second, but on an equal footing there is the first economy and therefore even ahead of the outside world itself. he's seriously pushing. yes, that is, we need a chinese position, we need chinese efforts. moreover, it’s not only developing these, let’s say, countries that well, they often really see in china some leader of the developing world, but also the smell of the ukrainian conflict china, of course, worries and geographically not so far away and the growth is fraught with unpredictable consequences, deprived of time. why not earlier why? when is the anniversary? yes?

here is the beginning of the operation, and china suddenly put forward this twelfth point on e, the plan, because we created that if it were a big risk, because everything will be there, that is , they say, yes, especially in the west even stronger, probably critics . uh, china because they would say that china is well- some kind of self-rolling roller, so that russia will succeed from this process. eh, like, well , pauses, yes, that is. well, now i think that just the emotions have already changed a little, so , uh, just a little bit of the product is not necessary, that is, to find it right away. a way out of this crisis, and most importantly, for everyone to begin to realize that is, if their interests , of course, if they need to start their positions , start this is a conversation, of course, in beijing

they would prefer not to take on too much, but everything is changing very quickly trump and especially most importantly at the beginning of a pandemic. uh nineteen. mm, china turned out to be, well, in a certain shock when i saw that this situation is as externally favorable as possible. it has changed and will be so that it turns out, but because of its equidistance from everyone, it also turned out to be without serious external political this, but with powerful support when it began to experience pressure from the united states, and the fact that the united states at the same time has a very strong bloc not just allies. and e countries that are ready to instantly connect with him even on these. knocking as an anti-chinese constructor, it turned out to be very serious, so china realized that its silence is now playing against it and therefore participation in all these mediations is the use of its most powerful economy. for example, why for saudi and iran the position of china was interesting

and in general, participation is possible, well, because there is, the yuan, how serious it is. right now, here is a financial instrument politically one of the possible today, which at least somehow somewhere you can, let's say , protect yourself and those who are worried about the topic of the dollar in weaving is well understood that the russian ukrainian plot is incomparably more complicated than, for example, the iranian saudi one, which was recently handled beautifully and of course, china would like to share the responsibility recently there, just like that, restoration of the type show once. yes, the fact that chinese e not only has some kind of vision under no and but there you pout more specifically. uh, plan of action. i think in ukrainian it still remains for more abstract there, that is, ideas, because if we turned to turn to history. uh, now there are previously

third-party, but the sentences around here are the nuclear north korean clothes and so on. so you noticed at the beginning of the three sides, and then these sides. and what about the purpose of the ukrainian crisis. why not, starting with some, that is , a small multilateral formation, and then it will move on to a large, that is, a sentence on the formation. hank kim song, an opposition cartoonist who has been working for western publications since the 1980s, the panda has written on his diplomat chinese diplomacy everything is clear without words italian emmanuel del rossa another diplomatic clash between beijing and washington on the ball, so it is written us-china relations response to the chinese global times.

osian countries, on the way to china, an american tank got stuck in a puddle of sanctions, so it is written in the picture and a person who looks like biden says, push patrick champade and switzerland tiktok, like a spy tool of the chinese special services, another dance video with rihanna, one of the soldiers screams and i i will kill myself. the longer the military drags on actions, the sharper the question of expediency, they again started talking about freezing, as on the korean peninsula 70 years ago. by the way, when the impasse on the fronts became clear. diplomat with the participation of rather exotic intermediaries. in the end , it brought the war to a halt. this stop without a peace treaty continues to this day , after the advertisement, let's talk about how they generally get out of acute international crises. what does experience teach about the recent past?

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may 19, 100 years since the birth of the main soviet americanist and one of the most significant international affairs academician georgy arbatov and brave at the front during the great patriotic war and in subsequent activities, as one of his students notes, georgy's hallmark has always been elegance and intellectual and in human behavior . georgy arbatov was born in the spring of 23 in kherson. in 1941 he graduated from school with a gold medal and , on the eve of the war, entered the krasin artillery school for 18 years. george arbatov commanded a battery of rocket-propelled mortars, passed the kalinin steppe voronezh, the first and second ukrainian fronts , crossed the dnieper twice, after which, with severe tuberculosis, he was sent to the rear of the war. for him, a young disabled person of the second group ended in the forty-fourth with the rank of captain. returning to moscow, he entered the international faculty of moscow state university, which soon

gained independence in the form of mgimo, studied us history and was engaged in journalism , worked in publishing, foreign literature and communist magazines. at first in the sixties, he got into a group of consultants to get rid of the cpsu on relations with the communist and workers' parties of the socialist countries, and at 54 he was headed by her father of soviet-american studies, arbatov, was an adviser to the country's top leadership from brezhneva andropov to gorbachev and yeltsin in the sixty-seventh year, on his initiative , a profile institute of the united states was founded and canada academy of sciences of the ussr formally work in was not a diplomat, but participated in many closed negotiations personally knew all the us presidents from johnson to bush sr. a considerable contribution contributed to the pogozhian movement of scientists, which advocated arms control and nuclear non-proliferation.

he brought up a whole generation of brilliant specialists, and he himself belonged to a bunch of prominent international specialists of the last soviet decades nikolai inozemtsev alexander buvin evgeny primakov valentin zorin fyodor burlatsky a number of others they had a paradoxical time according to all the formal signs of the ussr was at the peak of geopolitical and military power, however, the system experienced, growing problems not only economic, but ideological nature, the lack of internal flexibility affected the ability to continue the military-political competition of the united states. sofya sergeeva will remind you of the artifacts of that sparkling era in the summer of 1959, the confrontation between the two superpowers was hot, it was