hello, the international review is on air at the fyodor lukyanov studio today in the program of the international review of the week of the chronicles. the west is frankly disappointed with the prospects of the turkish

residents of the turkish reported seeing the actor güssel kay on the square, made up for filming as an ataturk, they approached him with the words you miss you so much. pasha wiped away some tears, the budgetary erdogan measures himself only with the founder of the turkish republic and intends to stand, in history, next to him, at least some. true believe his antipode from saturrok the destroyer of his heritage, but the question is in scale. erdogan won them quite easily in the second presidential round. this does not mean that the country rallied in a single impulse, the society split the city in the majority voted for

the opposition. but now it is a particular year of the centenary of modern turkish statehood. erdogan. he proved his right to sculpt the future of the country for another 5 years. ahmat rama, an artist from turkey, to meet the second round of elections, the heroes are guessed intuitively, everything is clear and without words wolfgang ammer from austria the work is titled archaic the sign on the shop reads antiques next to the portrait the plate novelty carlos amarin from brazil the results of the second round of the turkish elections the characters are easily recognizable, and the drawing is briefly titled as pasted michael civchaya from turkey the work is simply called the presidential elections in turkey from above, apparently, the opposition, and from below the so-called international support for another five long years

, the drawing of the dutch brand wonka in a prison cell. journalists, says the cartoonist. yes what are you suffering from? simple, add another 1.824 little erdogans, a drawing of a singing gother. this is also called, very briefly, first aid. what next we talked with fucking ashan, research director of the ankara institute in the recent past, he is a prominent member of the turkish parliament from the justice and development party and an adviser to the prime minister. taha for erdogan, each term is not the same as the previous one. what are the specifics of these elections are the two main results. the first erdogan won again. he continued a streak of consistent victories that has been going on since 1994 is almost 30 years old, if you add up all the companies from the mayoral elections, including the referendum, you get 16 winning

votes. the second chemical composition of turkish politics has completely changed, not for the better, the meaningful discussion of the elections has been reduced to an arithmetic competition. the only goal is to reach 50% at any cost. everything essential is secondary. erdogan needed the support of other forces , and they had to draw up the same from the opposition. merging with parties that would otherwise never come together as a result of a coalition, which, in the course of normal democratic development, is formed as a result of elections according to an understandable procedure. they appeared before the elections. this undermines the essence of party work, and also lays serious problems for the government for the future. the opposition has an identity crisis, but the government is also puzzling over how to reconcile very different approaches . he repeatedly. so said the last term president can

move away from populist politics, no matter how was, the next 5 years promise a lot of challenges. turkey, according to the imf and the world bank, is the 19th largest economy in the world, if we consider the nominal gdp, which last year exceeded 900 billion dollars among the neighbors on the list, switzerland, the netherlands and saudi arabia, the growth rate was about five percent, but they are declining reconstruction work after the february earthquake damage from the elements exceeded $ 100 billion in turkey developed and industry and agriculture country exports automobiles and clothing parts and textiles fruits and vegetables as well as chemicals and related products. in recent decades , modern breakthrough industries have been actively developing, for example, turkey was supposed

to participate in the production of american f305 fighters, but was excluded from the program after the purchase of russian anti-aircraft ones. ankara was accused of using american technology to create its own strike aircraft, and its attack drones. already now they are successfully produced and exported, like other the military-industrial complex during erdogan's presidency actively developed the fuel sector after the refusal of southern europe to participate in the russian southern gas sector. the stream, it has turned into a turkish stream. ankara has assumed the role of a major gas hub, inflation remains a serious problem, which, according to official data, fluctuates around 50% on the one hand. this is an advantage for manufacturers that offer competitive prices on the world market, but on the other hand, inflation undermines the purchasing power of the middle class. behind

during the reign of erdogan, the turkish lira fell four times against the dollar , and after his victory in the elections, the exchange rate updated its historical minimum 5 days before the first stage of voting recep erdogan, even announced a 45% salary increase for employees of a state institution against the backdrop of explosive inflation. it was like compensation to state employees and income. everyone says that the main topic now is the economy yes, the first thing the economic crisis prerequisites for overcoming it is the rejection of populism. everyone knows this, both erdogan and those who will be appointed government, but popularity will fall. in addition, it is not easy to satisfy the demands of both populists and technocrats, probably erdogan will need a combined solution of rational actions interspersed with populist outbursts, additional complexity in 10 months. again

, local elections, and according to the results of those that have passed, the opposition is in the lead in the twenty largest cities, large cities. istanbul ankara and other very important source of power in general, the next 5 years is a test for both the government and the opposition, the constant struggle to preserve unity. ryadovka. surroundings are very dynamic external skill forces, the active role of local players is just growing. everything, this is in the area that the ottoman empire once occupied, maybe its geopolitical traditions will somehow be revived , i doubt the main problems of turkey are the economy. the rest is seen in this context on the geopolitical front. i would not expect something of high quality and new, but i don’t think that the players with whom turkey interacts are ready for its more activity in syria, full of confusion nobody knows how to get out of the situation, attempts are being made to normalize

relations between ankara and damascus, but there is no resource for some new role, political iraq is completely fragmented , everyone is trying to snatch more progress for themselves there is nothing to talk about, in my opinion, no one even thinks in neo-ottoman categories . it's generally invented outside as soon as turkey becomes a little more visible immediately. the ottomans are sculpting the label; now everyone has one topic, no one has excess resources, rather, you can come up with all sorts of schemes and pictures of a deficit, but if the real resources of trying to implement grandiose plans will be investments in their own crisis. so, for example, happened to iran large-scale ambitions, but the means to materialize. no, it happens and vice versa, the united states, for example, if everywhere you interfere abundantly in this by investing, but you have no idea. why in the end is it just a threat for everyone so that there is a fundamental

balance everyone is learning turkey is learning the syrian lesson reasons turkey will try to maintain the status quo and rightly so, there is a new strategy. not to wait. we had a lot of problems in relations with the surrounding countries. now we have decided almost everything remains armenia and the difficulties with greece, and this process must continue, because this is the way out not only for turkey but for the entire region. i wouldn't call it a well thought out strategy just. the process of eliminating obstacles, we can say that methodologically turkey is changing the approach instead of a holistic foreign policy system of specific relations. we have so was for a long time until the beginning of the 2000s, then some idea became decisive. how the region should be organized now we are returning again to the system of good contacts, active diplomacy and economic ties, that's all. the middle

east as we know it a phenomenon by historical standards the recent legacy of the ottoman empire was divided in such a way that no one agreed with this diligence? that’s who you won’t take, if you look at what erdogan and not only he and his rivals say, then approximately every second speech begins from what we must revive we must return. we have to say so from quitting. if you look at what the arabs say, both muslims and christians, they say that this is all unfair, that strangely divided the borders wrongly, they decided us and so on, but partly said. uh, this anti-colonial one. uh, hmm i mean this said of course, uh, discourse this is a project launched. eh, relatively

speaking, wahhabino, yes, well, that's such radical islam as some mechanism for liberation from the turks. eh, and as a result a huge number of people lost their thoughts that they fled with their homeland, and so on. it's an empire , uh, it was legally annulled, but its legacy in various forms continues to exist in the modern middle east quite strongly. however, turkish colleagues react with irritation to discussions about the ottoman heritage. what kind of heritage of the 15-16.19th century before the first world war, the space of the ottoman empire was very different from what it was in the 16th century, unfortunately, in the 21st century, turkish foreign policy began to be represented

in a quite deliberately provocative way, turkey has become a dangerous competitor for many western countries in different parts of the world. the balkans, the middle east, north and central africa, primarily for france , the uk and. in some cases, the united states and immediately sounded a biased assessment. the goal was simply to scare arab intellectuals and present turkey as a threat. , recalling the ottoman empire, they tried to present turkey as the same colonialist as they themselves and to convince that modern turkey wants to restore the former, but not on official nor on what other level no one has ever spoken to us, but the intention to somehow restore the ottoman space. nejdan, without giving from the oglu , they never did this. all right, all right , there are no political plans, but it cannot be denied that centuries of common history could not pass without a trace. if we look at the ottoman empire t-3 forces of the arabs, turks and persians balanced each other, then the arabs

koran islam means, uh, classical arab culture, and uh means, uh, cities, holy cities in which they live predominantly arabs who receive pilgrims from all over the empire. so, accordingly, there is a special theme here, but, nevertheless, a great culture. uh, they actually gave rise to the language that the ottoman empire spoke, because the ottoman language is to a very large extent, persian classical persian theme is uh hmm means, respectively, sufiism brotherhood of military organizations, there and so on, including these all e. all all these pmcs of that time are also persian. basically an invention. yes, and the turks , respectively. yes, it's a military organization. military brotherhoods, uh, and the glue that sticks

together all these directional elements. and this all means that when it all fell apart, it turned out that the arabs don’t know how to organize politically, they don’t know how to stick together. uh, they started, so the wars began, there are problems. she attempted to create a large arab state came to nothing. well, and so on. let's have 29 states. uh, different traditions, which means uh persia well, iran in general. uh, hmm managed to survive somehow. true, by quite complex, er and not very. beneficial for the population uh, such uh. compromises of all sorts , in particular, with the colonial authorities, and so

on. well, actually the main ones have been lost. the most important thing of the ottoman empire was that this entire middle eastern history was balanced by romania in the european part of the ottoman empire, having lost greece, bulgaria , romania and everything else. well , actually, the jedi and moldavia, uh, everything, and everything. this is the ottoman empire reduced to its asia minor segment and that's it. will it be established a new balance in this part of eurasia is gradually being recognized, while everything is in motion in the immediate vicinity of turkey in the south caucasus doubly. it is interesting, because here the ghost of the ottoman empire comes into contact with the contours of the russian, and also persia at hand. we will discuss what to expect in the black sea region of the caucasus with our good friend nikolai silaev. kolya hello. everything became extremely interesting in the old conflicts, which were considered completely dead ends. suddenly, it seems to be resolved, but

new ones appear. it's some new stage starts there. well, i think the key word is still sort of, because we 're hearing speeches, but so far no one has signed anything, and as usual, there's a lot of anticipation first, which is a week ago. e, they said there was news that supposedly armenian azerbaijanis were going to write some kind of document, and in moldova on june 1, but this did not take place, and as a result, the meeting was summed up in this way. what does it mean that a good foundation for the future has been created there. that's when they begin to say that the main result is a good start for the future here. uh, it's hard speak. here in using perfective verbs, that something has already happened, but it is obvious that a lot is changing in the region, but here is the fact itself. uh, the fact is the recognition of boundaries. well, such are the soviet soviet republics. he is traditional or in fact it is still unknown, well, strictly speaking, he is both revolutionary and conservative from

the point of view of armenia, he is revolutionary from the point of view of everyone else, he is conservative, because in fact, these borders have already been revised several times by the old soviet ones. ah, and then the statement is made, but the statement made. here i should maybe even stand up a little for the power of armenia because the statement was created made a-a in a-a in the next video. uh, if the rights and security of the armenians of nagorno-karabakh are observed, then armenia is ready to recognize the territorial integrity of azerbaijan as karabakh in its composition, but there are conditions here. here are those rights. i think that armenia can sign at any time, even on june 1, even on the second, even on the tenth. uh, some kind of peace agreement on azerbaijan's terms if she still hasn't did, it means that something has not yet been agreed. well, all the same, all the same, experience shows, and modern experience at all, too, that

no matter how they appeal to international law, and what may or may not have been, the decisive factor is the results of the war, the war did not lose, and in general, even then it became clear that it won't work out the way it did. nagorno-karabakh , a small armenian enclave on the territory of azerbaijan , became part of the russian empire in 1813. following the results of the russian-persian war, with the advent of soviet power , the nagorno-karabakh, autonomous region appeared in as part of the azerbaijani ussr, in 88, inspired by the ideas of perestroika, the deputies of this region decided to transfer karabakh to armenia, but received a decisive refusal from baku, then protest demonstrations began in the capital of karabakh, stepan kersi, and in yerevan, with the collapse of the ussr, an armed conflict broke out between armenia and azerbaijan, active hostilities . the ninety-first to

ninety-four years were carried out and led to numerous victims and destruction, according to various estimates, from 15 to 25,000 people died. hundreds of thousands became refugees azerbaijan lost control over nagorno-karabakh and the adjacent region, where the unrecognized nagorno-karabakh republic arose in may 1994 in bishkek, with the mediation of russia, and the cis inter-parliamentary assembly, aside , concluded an agreement on termination. fire further years of attempts to achieve political regulation came to nothing in the september 2020 hostilities. they flared up again and stopped only after two months. after the leaders of russia , azerbaijan and armenia, signed a truce a number of regions of nagorno-karabakh came under the control of baku, and along the line of contact and the lachin corridor, russian peacekeepers were deployed over the past 3 years, as a result

of armed clashes , several more territories in nagorno-karabakh came under the control of azerbaijan . an azerbaijani checkpoint was established with karabakh in the fall, 2022, azerbaijan offered armenia a version of a peace agreement. based on five principles, the recognition of territorial integrity of both countries mutual renunciation of any territorial claims non-use of force or threat of force delimitation of borders, as well as the opening of communication, the european union has joined in the settlement since february, a european civil mission has been operating on the border in may at a meeting of the supreme eurasian economic council, armenia announced the recognition of nagorno-karabakh as part of azerbaijan . having mutually recognized

each other's territorial integrity , prime minister nikol pashinyan stated that on the issue of the rights and security of the armenians of nagorny karabakh must be provided with an international guarantee. the balance of power on the ground yeah, but we had the minsk agreements, where there were territorial integrity and rights and security and much more. and nothing happened. well, there still actually never stopped, the fighting. here you have them now, although on the other hand. why they will also be on the other side of the flash permanent good. but the turkish factor in all this, well, it is clear that turkey is the key player in the game. uh, there are already such arguments that turkey, russia maybe these guarantors will become, but in general the role of turkey in the south caucasus now. what i think that turkey would very much like

to become a guarantor and moreover, i think this is a hypothesis that i do not have reliable confirmation, but uh, in my opinion one of the motives. such an energetic participation of turkey in the second karabakh war in the twentieth year. eh, it just consisted in trying to impose on russia and the role of these equal mediators, by analogy with syria, it did not work out, because on the ground and russian writers, turkey is not a participant. actually, uh, the conflict resolution process. well, i can’t really imagine that the united states and especially the european union, which has now taken such, at least tactical leadership in this negotiation process, that they are ready to cede some, er , some share to turkey. there is some role here, because why? then so many things have accumulated at the house of the newly elected

president erdogan that i'm not sure that there will be any big activity here, in the near future here is the topic that appeared recently, but somehow it is becoming more and more noticeable. this is the attitude of azerbaijan to iran uh, there was an incident. uh, i was in the embassy in tehran. uh, always some skirmishes. uh, political rhetorical, and sometimes even with weapon elements. and this, firstly. eh, is it expected, secondly, is it structural or still contour, in my opinion, it’s still opportunistic and that’s why, because the skirmishes between iran and azerbaijan that are going on now represent something new at the beginning two thousandth. there it came to military demonstrations, moreover, with turkish participation. and

when there were disputes over the ownership of certain deposits and taxied out in parallel with how this exchange is going on, there is an exchange of courtesies between the vacuator at the same time. after all, an agreement was reached on the construction of the railway. you decide the container that should be completed this continuous e, railway line along the transport corridor south and it is obvious that russia needs it iran needs it a lot, who really needs india. now it's needed. although, of course, iran is very concerned about the fact that azerbaijan has close relations with israel. they get tighter cramped. and tehran is an annoyance. yes, this is what i hear from iranian colleagues all the time. uh, that is, they see, so they are generally taken, which means that the ring is used by both the united states and israel, azerbaijan as farpost when the decision on the military, uh , intervention will finally be made. everything, of course,

maybe people sometimes hmm ah, they turn out to be, let's say, captured by some kind of excitement, which happened especially from azerbaijan after the war of the twentieth year, but understandable. quite the fears of our iranian friends. eh, but it still depends a lot. here will be in front of this line. everything is still being tested here. uh, red lines, i'm sorry for this pop-up expression of each other's red lines. what is possible and what is not? i think that azerbaijan is also doing the same thing in relation to iran. okay, another country in the region, georgia, to be honest, surprised me. here is such an unshakable rock the government of georgia categorically does not allows for being drawn into a confrontation with russia by going. in general, e. i would even say

a confrontation with my main partners back in the west. this was expected in general, what is the reason for this, given our, to put it mildly, complex recent history. i would like to say here a word that i think has not been heard on domestic tv for 30 years. this is the national word of the bourgeoisie. oh-oh-oh, georgia differs from many other post-soviet countries in that the national bourgeoisie and people, that is, people, are in power there. who, uh, have their own pocket, their own well-being, related to how georgia will feel in general, the georgian part, in contrast to contracture, which, in contrast to i would say the global intelligentsia, respectively, the national bourgeoisie, and here are the people, in fact, how lions fight for their money, the growth of e-e transport logistics industry in georgia last year was 30% now

russian tourists will go anyway. uh, whatever it was, and that's why the country is, of course, interested in having these direct flights. and surprisingly at the same time, what is it to them e that they are not just defending their own income and , in fact, actually well-being, but the fact that they are trying to diplomatically go on the offensive. after all, when the georgian authorities say that a special military operation in ukraine began because of nato expansion, or when they say that, well, nato does not provide us with security guarantees , the best thing the west can do is to give weapons, but here it is gives weapons to ukraine easier from this ukraine well, a little easier. yes, a although it is still unknown, what would happen if there, uh, compare the scale of losses, uh, that is, they uh , are conducting such offensive rhetoric against the west this is very very

interesting, but uh, after all, the government of the georgian dream, different governments the georgian dream is quite a long time ago the power of the current example. it's not the first time. eh, the prime minister , and apparently, well, there is a thing as experience, here it is acquired while the ruling party is in power, apparently, it went for the future. it is extremely interesting, in general, we are used to the fact that our expanses are here. e, all e, they love to walk on the rake many, many times. but if it suddenly turns out that someone is bypassing, this, of course, is a sensation. it evokes such a powerful one. thanks a lot. our guest was nikolai silaev from mgimo

. yes, dude, one of us is absolutely not lucky . maybe this is our bullfinch. what are you doing, open your arms like that? ha ha, get out of there. what kind of picnic is this i don't understand. give it to the boy and it will work. yes, here the steamboat cannot be dumped through the forest and says, well, yes, such a budget option is the stomach. i'm just walking, revenged the eighth day, they walk one after another and can't do it fine. you'll manage everything.