[000:00:00;00] a wire from the perspective of turkish politics an echo of tectonic shifts in the world order, asia minor is quietly shaken by the aggravation of regional crises a powder keg of europe how to take away kosovo in serbia under the guise of a new excitement enough. pasha wiped away some of recep erdogan's tears and measures himself only with the founder of the turkish republic and intends to stand next to him in history as at least some. true, they consider him the antipode of the father of the turks, the destroyer of his heritage, but the question is on a scale.

erdogan won them quite easily in the second presidential round. this does not mean that the country rallied in a single impulse, the society split the city in the majority voted for the opposition. but now it is a particular year of the centenary of modern turkish statehood. erdogan. he proved his right to fight the future of the country for another 5 years. ahmad rama, an artist from turkey, to meet the second round of elections, the heroes are guessed intuitive, everything, understandable and without words wolfgang ammer from austria the work is titled archaic the sign on the store reads antiques next to the portrait the plate novelty carlos-amarin from brazil the results of the second round of the turkish elections the characters are easily recognizable, and the drawing is briefly titled as mikhail chivchik glued from turkey the work is simply called

the presidential elections in turkey from above, apparently, the opposition, and from below the so-called international support, for another 5 long years the drawing of the dutch brand wonka in prison camera. journalists, says the cartoonist. why are you suffering, just, add another 1.824 small erdogans, a drawing by the singer gotz heber, this is also called the first medical aid very briefly. what further did they talk with taha ashan, director of research at the ankara institute, in the recent past, he is a prominent member of the turkish parliament from the justice and development party and an adviser to the prime minister. taha for erdogan , each term is not the same as the previous one. what are the specifics of these elections are the two main results. the first erdogan won again. he continued a series of unchanging victories that

have been going on since the ninety-fourth year for almost 30 years, if you add up all the companies from the mayoral elections, including the referendum, you get 16 winning votes. the second chemical composition of turkish politics has completely changed, not for the better, the meaningful discussion leaves the choice divorced to an arithmetic competition. the only goal is to reach 50% at any cost. everything essential is secondary. erdogan needed the support of other forces, the same thing, and they had to form an association with the opposition. which otherwise would never have converged as a result of a coalition that, in normal democratic development, is formed as a result of elections according to an understandable procedure. they appeared before the elections. this undermines the essence of party work, and also lays serious problems for the government for the future. the opposition has an identity crisis, but the government is also puzzling over how to reconcile

very different approaches . he repeatedly. that's what the president said the last term may move away from populist politics, be that as it may, the next 5 years promise many challenges. turkey, according to the imf and the world bank, is the nineteenth largest economy in the world, if we consider in terms of nominal gdp, which last year exceeded $ 900 billion among the neighbors on the list, switzerland , the netherlands and saudi arabia, the growth rate was about 5%, but the hard times are falling on the economy reconstruction work after the february earthquake damage from the elements exceeded $ 100 billion in turkey developed and industry and agriculture, the country exports automobiles and clothing parts and textiles, fruits and vegetables,

as well as chemicals and related products. in recent decades , modern breakthrough industries have been actively developing, for example, turkey was supposed to participate in the production of american f305 fighters, but was excluded from the program after the purchase of russian anti-aircraft systems. 400 ankara was accused of using american technology to create its own attack aircraft, and its attack drones. already now successfully produced and exported, like other products of the military-industrial complex during the presidency of erdogan , the fuel sector was actively developing. after the refusal of southern europe to participate in the russian southern gas sector. the stream, it has turned into a turkish stream. ankara has assumed the role of a major gas hub, inflation remains a serious problem, which, according to official data, fluctuates around 50% on the one hand. this is an advantage for producers who offer

competitive prices on the world market, but on the other hand, inflation undermines the purchasing power. ability of the middle class. during the reign of erdogan, the turkish lira fell four times against the dollar, and after his victory in the elections, the exchange rate was updated to a historical minimum 5 days before the first stage of voting recep tayyip erdogan even announced a 45% salary increase for employees of state institutions amid explosive inflation. it was like compensation to state employees and income. everyone says that the main topic now is the economy yes, the first thing the economic crisis prerequisites for overcoming it is the rejection of populism. everyone knows this and erdogan and those who will be appointed by the government, but the popularity will fall. moreover, it is not easy to satisfy the demands of both populists and technocrats, perhaps erdogan will need

a combined solution of rational actions, punctuated by populist bursts of additional complexity in 10 months. again, local elections, and according to the results of those that have passed, the opposition is in the lead in the twenty largest cities, large cities. istanbul ankara and other very important source of power in general, the next 5 years are a test for both the government and the opposition constant struggle to maintain the unity of the ranks. neighborhood, very dynamic external forces less active role of local players. as it grows. everything, this is in the area that the ottoman empire once occupied, maybe its geopolitical traditions will somehow be revived, i doubt the main problems of turkey are the economy. the rest is seen in this context on the geopolitical front. i would not expect something of high quality and new, but i don’t think that the players with whom turkey interacts are ready for her more activity

there is complete confusion in syria no one knows how to get out of the situation , attempts are being made to normalize relations between ankara and damascus, but there is no resource for some new role, iraq is politically completely fragmented. everyone is trying to snatch more progress for themselves , there is nothing to talk about, in my opinion, nobody even thinks in neo-ottoman categories. it's generally invented outside as soon as turkey becomes a little more visible immediately. the ottomans are sculpting the label now everyone has one topic, no one has excess resources, rather a deficit is possible come up with all sorts of schemes and pictures, but if real resources attempts to implement grandiose plans will be investments in their own crisis. so, for example, happened to iran large-scale ambitions, but the means to materialize. no, it happens and vice versa, the united states, for example, if everywhere interfere abundantly in this by investing, but have no idea. why, in the end , is it just a threat for everyone so that there is a fundamental

balance everyone is learning turkey is learning the syrian lesson russia ukrainian the united states has a lot of lessons in general , another thing there is no certainty that everyone is doing correct conclusions, but for economic reasons, turkey will try to maintain the status quo. and rightly so, that is, a new strategy. not to wait. we had a lot of problems in relations with the surrounding countries. now we have decided almost everything remains for armenia and the difficulty with greece, and this process must continue, because this is the way out not only for turkey but for the entire region. i would not call this thoughtful strategy. just natural. the process of eliminating obstacles, we can say that methodologically turkey is changing the approach instead of a holistic external policy is a system of specific relations. we had this for a long time until the beginning of the 2000s, then a certain idea became decisive. how the region should be organized now we are returning

again to the system of good contacts, active diplomacy and economic ties , that's all. the middle east as we know it is a phenomenon by historical standards, the recent legacy of the ottoman empire was divided in such a way that no one agreed with this dealer. that's who you won't take, if you look at what says erdogan and not only him and his rivals, then about every second speech begins with the fact that we must revive, we must return. we have to say so from quitting. if you look at what the arabs say, both muslims and christians, they say that this is all unfair, that strangely divided borders wrongly misplaced us and so on. well, partly

said's. uh, that's anti-colonial. uh, hmm, of course, in discourse, this project has been launched. e, relatively speaking, we habiruem. yes well, here is such a radical islam as some mechanism for liberation from the turks. eh, and as a result of which a huge number of people lost their thoughts that they fled with their homeland and so on. it's an empire, uh, it was legally annulled, but its legacy in various forms continues to exist in the modern middle east quite strongly. however, turkish colleagues react with irritation to the discussion about the ottoman heritage. what kind of legacy of the 15-16 19th century before the first world war the space of the ottoman empire very different from what it was in

the sixteenth century? unfortunately, in the 21st century, turkish foreign policy began to be presented in a completely deliberately provocative way. turkey has become a dangerous competitor for many western countries in different parts of the world. simply scare arab intellectuals and present turkey as a threat, recalling the ottoman empire, turkey sought to expose with the same colonialist as they themselves and to convince that modern turkey wants to restore the former, but not on an official level, on any other level, no one has ever spoken about the intention to somehow restore the ottoman space. nejdan do not press oglu never did that. well, okay, okay, there are no political plans, but it cannot be denied that centuries of joint history

could not pass without a trace arabs, turks and persians balanced each other on the ottoman empire t-3, which means arabs koran islam means, uh, classical arabic culture, and, uh, means, uh, cities, holy cities, mostly inhabited by arabs, who receive pilgrims with everyone. and the persians mean, accordingly, there is a special theme here, but nevertheless, a great culture. uh, they actually gave rise to the language that the ottoman empire spoke, because the ottoman language is to a very large extent, persian is a classic persian theme - this is uh hmm means, respectively, sufiism brotherhood of military organizations, there and so on, including all these e. i'm eating

spells. yes, it's all these dudes of the time. this is also persian. basically an invention. yes, and the turks, respectively. yes, this is a military organization of military brotherhoods, uh, and the glue that sticks together all these directional elements. and this all means that when it all fell apart, it turned out that the arabs don’t know how to organize politically, they don’t know how to stick together . eh, it started, so the warriors started having problems there. she attempted to create large arab states ended in nothing. well, and so on. let's have 29 states. uh, different traditions, so e persia well iran in general. uh, hmm managed to survive somehow. true, by quite complex and not very.

beneficial for the population, uh, such uh . compromises of all sorts, in particular, with the colonial authorities, and so on. well, actually the main ones have been lost. the most important thing of the ottoman empire was also that this whole middle eastern history was balanced by romania, the european part of the ottoman empire, having lost greece, bulgaria, romania there and everything else. well, actually, uh, good jedi and moldavia, uh, everything, and everything. this is the ottoman empire reduced to its asia minor segment and that's it. whether a new balance will be established in this part of eurasia, we will find out gradually, while everything has come into motion in the immediate vicinity of turkey in the south caucasus doubly. it is interesting, because here the ghost of the ottoman empire comes into contact with the contours of the russian, and also persia at hand. we will discuss what to expect in the black sea region of the caucasus

with our good friend nikolai silaev. kolya hello. everything became extremely interesting old conflicts, which were considered completely dead ends. suddenly, it seems to be resolved, but new ones appear. it's some kind of new stage starts there. well, i think the key word is still sort of, because we hear speeches, but so far no one has signed anything, and as usual, there is a big expectation first, that a week ago, uh, they announced there was news that supposedly they are going, armenia, azerbaijanis, to write some kind of document, and in uh in moldova on june 1, but this did not take place, but as a result, the meeting was summed up in such a way, which means that a good foundation for the future has been created there. that's when they begin to say that the main currents are a reserve for the future here. eh, it's hard to say. here , using perfective verbs, that something also happened, but it is obvious that a lot is changing in the region, but here is the fact itself. uh, the fact is the recognition of borders, well, such

soviet soviet republics. he is traditional or in fact it is still unknown, well, strictly speaking, he is both revolutionary and conservative from the point of view of armenia, he is revolutionary from the point of view of everyone else, he is conservative, because in fact these borders have already been several times revised old soviet. ah, and then the statement is made, but the statement is made. here i must, maybe even stand up a little for the power of armenia, because the statement was created made a-a in a-a in the following form. uh, if the rights and security of the armenians of nagorno-karabakh are observed, then armenia is ready to recognize the territorial integrity of azerbaijan as karabakh in its composition of these rights. i think that armenia can sign at any time, even on june 1, even on the second, even on the tenth. uh, some kind of peace agreement on the terms of azerbaijan, if she has not

done this yet, then something has not been agreed on yet. well, all the same, all the same, experience shows, and modern experience at all, too, that no matter how we appeal to international law and whatever it is, the decisive factor is the results of the war, the war did not lose, and in general, even then it became clear that will not work as it was. nagorno-karabakh , a small armenian enclave on the territory of azerbaijan , became part of the russian empire in 1813 following the results of the russian-persian during the war, with the advent of soviet power, the nagorno-karabakh, an autonomous region appeared as part of the azerbaijani ussr in 88, inspired by the ideas of perestroika, the deputies of this region decided to transfer karabakh to armenia, but were decisively refused by baku , then protest demonstrations began in the capital of karabakh near kersi and in yerevan with

the collapse of the ussr an armed conflict broke out between armenia and azerbaijan, active hostilities. the ninety-first to 94 years were conducted and led to numerous victims and destruction, according to various estimates, died from 15 up to 25.000 people. hundreds of thousands became refugees, azerbaijan lost control over nagorno-karabakh and the adjacent region, where the unrecognized nagorno-karabakh republic arose in may 1994 in bishkek, with the mediation of russia and the cis inter-parliamentary assembly aside, concluded an agreement on termination. fire further years of attempts to achieve a political settlement came to nothing in the september 2020 hostilities . they flared up again and stopped

only after two months. after the leaders of russia, azerbaijan and armenia, signed a truce a number of regions of nagorno-karabakh came under the control of baku, and along the line of contact and the lachin corridor , russian peacekeepers over the past 3 years, as a result of armed clashes , several more territories in nagorno -karabakh came under the control of azerbaijan the only road that connects. compared with karabakh , an azerbaijani checkpoint was established in the fall of 2022. azerbaijan offered armenia a peaceful option agreements. based on five principles, recognition of the territorial integrity of both countries mutual renunciation of any territorial claims non-use of force or threat of force delimitation of borders, as well as the opening of communication the european union has joined in the settlement since february , a european civil mission has been operating on the border in may at a meeting of the supreme eurasian

economic council, armenia reported on the recognition of nagorno-karabakh as part of the azerbaijan side. mutually recognized each other's territorial integrity prime minister. nikol pashinyan stated that on the issue of the rights and security of the armenians of nagorno-karabakh should be provided with an international guarantee. the balance of power on earth uh-huh but we had the minsk agreements, where there were territorial integrity rights and security and much more. and nothing happened. well, there still actually never stopped, the fighting. here you are now, although on the other hand. why would they also be on the other side of the flash all the time? yes, well, but the turkish factor in all this, well it is clear that türkiye is a key game player. eh, there are already such arguments that turkey

, russia, maybe they will become these guarantors, but in general, the role of turkey in the south caucasus now. what i think that turkey would very much like to become a guarantor and moreover, i think this is a hypothesis that i do not have reliable confirmation, but uh, in my opinion one of the motives. such an energetic participation of turkey in the second karabakh war in the twentieth year. uh, just consisted in trying to impose a role on russia here these equal mediators, by analogy with syria, this did not work out, because russian literary people on earth are not participants in their own process of resolving the conflict. well, i can’t really imagine that the united states and especially the european union, which has now taken such, at least tactical leadership in this negotiation process, as a mediator, that they are ready to give

turkey some, uh, some- then share here some role is there, because why? then so many cases accumulated at home at the fresh president-elect erdogan, that i'm not sure that there will be some great activity here, in the near future this is a topic that appeared recently, but somehow it is becoming more and more noticeable. this is the attitude of azerbaijan to iran uh, there was an incident. uh, i was in the embassy in tehran. uh, always some skirmishes. uh, political rhetorical, and sometimes even other elements. and this, firstly. eh, is it expected secondly, is it structural or is it still oculo? in my opinion, it’s still opportunistic, and that’s why, because the clashes between iran themselves azerbaijan, which are now clashing , clashes of disagreement and quantity of innovation.

you can come up with a lot of synonyms for e, they don’t represent something new, and at the beginning of the 2000s there came to military demonstrations, moreover, with turkish participation. and when there were disputes over the ownership of certain deposits, they taxied in parallel with how this one is going. here the exchange is an exchange of courtesy between the vakuuter at the same time, because an agreement has been reached on the construction of the railway. you decide the old one that should be completed this continuous railway line along the transport corridor to the south and it is obvious that russia needs it too iran needs it but a lot of people need it, india really needs it. now it's needed. although, of course, iran is very concerned that azerbaijan has close relations with izra. they are getting closer and closer and tehran is annoying. yes , this is what i hear from iranian colleagues all the time. ah, that is, they see, so they

are generally taken, which means that both the united states and israel use it in the ring, azerbaijan as an outpost when already finally the decision is the decision of the military. uh, intervention will be accepted. everything, of course, maybe people sometimes. hmm , but it turns out, let's say, captured by some kind of excitement that was from the azerbaijanis, especially after the war of the twentieth year, but also completely understandable fears of our iranian friends. eh, but it still depends a lot. here will be in front of this line. everything is still being tested here. uh, red lines, i'm sorry for this escalating each other's red line. and what is possible, what is impossible, and i think that it also does the same thing, azerbaijan in relation to the koran well, another country in the region, georgia, to be honest, surprised me. here is such an unshakable

rock, the government of georgia categorically does not allow being drawn into a confrontation with russia by going. in general, e. i would even say a confrontation with my main partners in the west. this was expected in general, what is the reason for this, given our, to put it mildly, complex recent history. i would like to say here a word that i think has not been heard on domestic tv for 30 years. this word words national bourgeoisie. oh-oh-oh, georgia differs from many other post-soviet countries in that there are national authorities and people, that is, people who, uh, have their own pocket and their own well-being are connected with how they will feel, georgia is georgian in general,

unlike comprodudurs, which, unlike , i would say, the global intelligentsia, respectively, the national religion industries in georgia last year 30% now russian tourists will go anyway. uh, so that there is no a, and therefore the country is, of course, interested in having these direct flights. uh, what is surprising is that they are not just defending their own income and, in fact, well-being, but the fact that they are trying diplomatically to go on the offensive. after all, when the georgian authorities declare that a special military operation in ukraine began because of nato expansion, or when they say that, well, after all, nato does not provide us with a guarantee of security, the best that the west can do is to provide weapons. well, he gives weapons to ukraine easier from this ukraine well, a little easier.

yes, and although it's still unknown, what would happen if there was a comparison of the scale of the loss, ah, that is , they uh are conducting such offensive rhetoric against the west this is very very interesting, but uh, still the government of the georgian dream, different governments of the georgian dream for quite a long time the power of the current prime minister he is not the first time, uh, prime minister and apparently, well, there is a thing as an experience, here it is acquired while the ruling party is in power, apparently, it went for the future. it is extremely interesting, in general, we are used to the fact that in our open spaces, uh, everyone uh, they really like to walk on a rake many, many times. but if it suddenly turns out that someone is bypassing, this, of course, the sensation attacks causes such a powerful surge. thank you very much. nikolai silaev from mgimo was our guest. optimism looks at the armenian-azerbaijani settlement from

ankara. the statements from both sides are positive, armenia agreed to recognize the prevailing realities, turkey - this welcomes serious changes. i did not expect ankara's bat without a doubt turkey will support, azerbaijan lowering the heat will create a more rational basis for further actions the war is over, there is a definite decision and guarantors are needed, it is the activity of ankara and moscow that is fundamental here. there is a lot of pressure over the restoration of economic relations between turkey and armenia, there is no reasonable explanation. why are the borders still closed there is reason to return to the 2010 process the year when negotiations began to normalize relations and the fact that erdogan actually heads a nationalist government makes such a scenario more likely for a nationalist to make it easier to reconcile without fear of accusations. turkey's interests, as is known, extend far beyond

the borders of the former empire; the cultural space of the turkic world goes far away and claims to insult culturally. and to build mosques open a school of the turkish language, in fact, they prolonged the transition to the latin alphabet. uh. well, here it is, here it is some ideas that central asia is a central asian state - this is our culturally, there and so on the idea of ​​pan-turkism. she is not canceled by anyone. china sees things differently. actually, it's just one belt. one way is this big family central and there, that everything goes there kyrgyzstan and so on, the chinese see central asia as, uh, insuring chinese chinese mainland. e, according to the barbarian belt, well, relatively speaking, yes, there the word barbarian, in this case, no way, does not