here and they argued, uh, then the pandemic began and suddenly it turned out that it really was. uh, deformation and deconstruction. these are the systems of world governance regulation that can happen very quickly, much faster than anyone could imagine, suffice it to say that this is the globalization that we considered absolutely not uh, well, not inevitable unalternative objective process for several decades in the twentieth year, when the pandemic began, it turned out that all this is globalization, all these almost all four or how many five freedoms of movement that underlie it can be taken and turned off on a global scale within 10 days, which then happened in the spring, we all remember well, after that there were many other events, uh, that influenced the process, but not in the direction of their change, not in the direction of their unfolding. but only in

the direction of stimulating and catalyzing the catalyzing of what we then tried to realize, namely the changes in the world and the departure from the universal general model that globalization was supposed to signify. well now what is happening, it is not necessary to repeat. we see that politics, like an icebreaker, invades, uh, economic issues. and what seemed impossible yesterday, because it is irrationally happening literally. that's elementary instantly and no longer surprises anyone. this is a new reality that we have to get used to, but at the same time, and here i come, in fact, to the topic of our today's session. the most important thing is that this changing cardinal world. it doesn't fall apart though. he is not is fragmented into some separate pieces, which each function in their own way.

wild and normative, it remains extremely interconnected both in the economic and political and cultural and informational sense, but interconnectedness is not a synonym for the globalization that we and which we have become accustomed to over the past three or four decades. and here in this new interconnectedness. first, her. we must try to comprehend. what does this mean for all of us, first of all for russia, but russia in this case is the same an integral part of the world like everyone else and secondly, uh, does that mean we're after some time? we will be able to understand what are the new principles of functioning and whether they exist at all and whether these new principles are possible in the full form of a coherent system, as it was before? i have big doubts about the latter, but this is already a question, so to speak. as a matter of fact. to our guests

today we have a magnificent composition. we tried very hard. e, so that the world is represented in everything in diversity. and i hope that we it worked out a little. well, let's start with ourselves, as always. we love ourselves more than the rest of the world. although we also love him immensely andrei ivanovich belousov e. he did us the honor of the last days of uh the star of u many discussions, but i hope that our discussion will allow you to open up in a new light, because here, uh, a very important combination of general theoretical, so to speak , approaches with extremely applied, uh, circumstances of the development of the russian economy please start by saying, uh. which in my opinion, expert, and today key trends are unfolding. because

the actual scenarios are, uh, self-determination. uh, leading e players. and one way or another, e are reflected in the space that these global trends actually form. the first is definitely. i wouldn't call this a breakup. i would have said such a softer word degradation, but degradation nonetheless. that model of globalization refers to a specific model that took shape in the 1990s after the collapse of the blocs and the system. we have had monocentric system of the world, and uh, very quickly attempts were made to fix this monocentric system uh, monocentric system in the realities that were typical for the nineties. ah, these realities, a, consisted in the fact that, a-a

, huge resources were thrown onto the world markets, which were freed from decay. e of the soviet union and those countries that were economically connected by the soviet union and actually the nineties passed under the flag or seemed to. passed under the flag of the development of these resources, it was not by chance that trade then grew about twice as fast as the world gdp of global trade and it seemed to everyone that well, at least it seemed to someone that it would always be like this, or at least for a very long time , and so on, 93 94 the wto arises whose rules fix this status further uh, began uh, a new map of global investment global investment flows began to take shape and emerged in the fall, and how did an organization that sets the standard of best practice for global

investment further, uh, begin to modernize? well, she already the jamaican system was modernized, the system, then, uh, the dollar, then the euro. uh, like the dollar, like the key reserve currency. uh, the euro, in fact, just like the reserve currency that divided the world, uh , in a certain ratio , it means, uh, that we are, yes, it means that it is interesting that in the nineties the beneficiary was the main beneficiary. e of this system was not the united states, but china , because it was during the nineties. china was able to double its share of world gdp despite the fact that the americans lost it and the europeans it was lost a little longer, that is, this is the global pie, which means more. as i understand it, they naturally didn’t like it, and actually, starting from the second half

of the 2000s, it was the americans who began to successfully dismantle this entire global system as a standard. we are watching this. well, if some things are quite obvious. and for example, this is what the americans dismantled the wto system by blocking usb , and trump did it, then, it seems, it would seem that he is the limit now to unlock everything, nothing like that. but as remained blocked, and so far, means the ride remained blocked. why because it was considered? that's what china is gaining more than the united states next, and the trade war with china seemed to be a thing of the past. eh, generally for a taboo topic is impossible. here in the nineties this could not be it happened further protectionism. very interesting. i watched, having the opportunity to communicate with many people there, i watched. the situation that at first protectionism was behind you here protectionism is evil then that

protectionism evil consequences began to talk about china and we are already europeans. well, something like this protectionism, then moderate protectionism began to appear, regulated by protectionism, and so on and so forth, then the americans began to say protectionism. what is this talking about? this suggests that the system has really begun to fail, but two more factors have been added to this, which i also want to indicate here this trend, and the first factor is inflationary waves, and inflationary waves can be accompanied by there, forget about them, how to clean up and not a braking moment, but they are accompanied by a restructuring of the price, we now have changes in the price proportions of the world economy, for which there are very fundamental things related to the change in global markets. ah, and the second moment, uh, this accumulation is long, but it was believed that the debt uh, this gigantic debt debt overhang arose, and which

actually has a significant role only for the countries of europe and then for the southern countries, but for them it really . uh, world factor hmm first of all, these are france and italy, and it was believed that as the largest economies in the world, included in the top ten, it was believed that we really did. there was a crisis of 2008-2009, then this debt will come down, nothing like it in these countries and in a number of other countries continued to grow and has already grown to such a size that it has become the biggest problem for central banks. many countries, including the central bank , understand that it limits the possibility and, above all, anti-infection policy. these are even smaller ones moments, but i believe. that the first trend is this one? the second trend is a deformation in the triangle that formed the backbone of the entire world economy until the mid

-2000s, and above all the axis e, china the united states and it is no secret that the united states consumes more than it produces. this can be seen primarily in the state of their current balance. e hair on current transactions that chronically has a negative value. that is, they, uh, import more than they export. uh, they invest more than saves. uh, this, too, means someone should now finance from the outside, and china was involved in this financing, and which chronically had a savings rate and higher than investment, and uh at different times in different ways, but about the same scale uh hmm and the countries of the european union germany uk and so on and so forth. ah, in return for that. uh, the americans opened the europeans also opened markets for chinese goods, i think that in this way they will tie all of them to china out of

about three and a half trillion. uh, exports of a trillion in approximately equal shares went a little more to the united states and still do. and so this axis was opening markets. e, and you, so this is the very thing for us, and you finance us, this axis is quite stable, it existed until about the beginning from my point of view. and what about the second decade, the twentieth century? why did i say what is a sign? here, just look at the simple figures of the gold and foreign exchange reserves. china is actually the main form in which they financed, the united states accumulating its foreign exchange reserves in dollars and euros. so, well, in dollars , first of all, they grew from the ninetieth year. 2010 from zero to almost three trillion dollars 2.9 and after that they stopped here further. this growth was somewhat

oscillatory, but not significant. this means that china, by and large , has ceased to increase funding for the united states. and it was 2.9. there now it is 3.2 there, well, that is, the order of numbers is the same, it goes on. in fact, on this overhead with the trade war sanctions against china and so on and so forth. this is the most fundamental thing in terms of the functioning of a sustainable world economies of connectivity call it what you will. this thing is of the most fundamental nature, the third trend is the emergence of new players on the global market. i call them super economies. uh, a super economy is an economy that controls more than one or two percent of the world's gdp is an economy that has control over key resources an economy that has a certain technological capacity and so on signs. you can call them there, which means that a number

of countries, uh, passed because of this twenty years from the agrarian stage quite clearly went into the industrial phase of development and so began, in layers, uh, to move into the lean industrial phase. these include definitely uh indonesia is on the way these include, of course, brazil , and mexico belongs to them although mexico is in such a zone of influence of the united states, uh, but nevertheless, but on the way, uh, south africa, uh, on the way, in fact, nigeria with a huge population and with huge resources for potential growth and so on these countries these countries. this is the second factor that killed. uh, i call the wto the word “killed” because i don’t believe that you are the only one who will wake up, and our doha round was not completed precisely because these countries did not give it, which means, uh, they did not fit into its distinct interests. and these countries, they actually present

a new world, a world order, which i think they don't know themselves. that is, it is not right-handed, not that it does not correspond. uh, americano in any itself is a fact a this is a reaction to climate fourth trend a reaction to climate change. it's not about climate change itself, there are studies that show that the anthropogenic factor is not the main one there. and whatever you guys do with the climate, everything will happen. that's what we where and going, but the reaction is very characteristic and reaction. it plays a big role here. uh, than uh climate change itself. this is an energy transition with e with a very clear trend with a very clear trend to stop industrialization, and the developing wanderer uh. uh, hmm second factor. this is a transition to green technologies. it is related to

the energy transition. this is an attempt to create the basis for the technological basis for the formation of new alliances e, led by e, the leading countries of the world, with everything from the european union and , of course, the united states is understood in a broad sense, as including canada, australia , and so on with paternal these are these countries and the second factor , which hasn't fired yet, but is actually in the er now, is already very clearly predicted to be related to climate change. this food and water crisis, because, now, according to various estimates, but in the next 20 years , about 10 million additional people may be in the water shortage zone due to climate change, and this will be such a powerful migration wave, in comparison with which what happened to us after the syrian events may turn out to be there, uh, flowers and the last fifth trend at least. i am because this is what i

single out there colleagues. there are dozens more. i don't touch socioculture now. today already discussed this issue, this digitalization and space. i put them side by side on purpose, but because i'll start with the cosmos, what 's going on, so our cosmos has been developing for a very long time until the early nineties. i would say that before the americans curtailed the epolon program, it developed in such a military demonstration paradigm. there were demonstrations in defense, who was the first who was in charge there, and so on and so forth, and the military, of course, military satellites. intelligence, communications and so on the rest is plus there, yes, all this is ballistics. since the 1990s, and especially in the 2000s, and especially recently, there has been a very strong economization of space. that is, if we look with you at this standard s-shaped curve, then we

see that approximately this point is located on e, m. e, the third of the first third. eh, suffice it to say that the cost of launching an average kilogram of launch has been reduced 10 times over 10 years, and moreover, the americans still have the task to complete. now they have already broken through the ceiling. uh, cost uh 1.000 dollars per kilogram of weight. they are challenged to reach 200 kg. what does this mean, low orbital space constellation the americans are tasked with bringing the space constellation. in total, up to 40,000 chinese satellites. in the thirtieth year, they set about 13.000-12.5. this means completely new technological conditions. this is the internet of things. and the internet of things is a smart home, a smart street is total control. this is uh new industrial technology. plus, this is remote sensing of the earth

online. uh, it's brand new conditions navigation. that is, it is e. this is the next wave of digitalization, which, together with artificial intelligence, creates a qualitatively new environment, which entails a number of things, first of all, consolidation. well, first of all, new opportunities. i won't do it now. i will take only the negative is the consolidation of the digital divide. moreover, a very strong new hierarchy of countries digital rent, because spacewalk. uh, actually has five countries there. eh, for the foreseeable future. uh, it doesn't compare the traditional sectors. eh, this dysfunctional institution. uh, replacement. uh, what is called the term technoeconomics, which the president uh used about ours last year, and this is the emergence of new global players of the platform platform type, including mmm amazon, uh, alpha-bet and so on,

with which no one really does not really know what to do, because they do not look like hierarchical corporations of a completely different type and regulator. uh, the relation has not yet been developed, and their potential is comparable to the potential. now there are already such countries, uh, the average level of the average level of development is in the aggregate that's it, a creates a qualitatively new situation over the next ten years. and if we're talking about twenty, uh, there's a whole bunch of other factors to add in number and shift from cultural factors. eh, very short. which set of scenarios is currently being viewed. i will name two scenarios and the most likely. from my point of view and uh two less likely, the first most likely is an attempt at a new globalization. it's uh her pax americano which will be based on the digital

divide to anchor the formation new unions. it will be directed primarily against china and an attempt to strategically consolidate this gap. it actually, uh, already has very deep foundations. this is a new ideology. now i won't. it concerns this ideology of responsibility to future generations. it's enough there. eh, strong now eh, seething is important that the inclusion. uh, the formation of such. union is not on liberalism. she's a protectionist- based one, two. this is the configuration of the union according to the principle of the western ones. uh, closed clubs, and this is the essential role of power component in the formation. e new relationship. this is, of course, the use of the green agenda and the consolidation of advantages in the space of the second. eh, second. uh, a scenario that, uh, is about as likely from my point of view.

this is regeneration. this is the formation of e regional regional. uh, such uh, mega-economy around existing centers of development and new centers that are now being formed, we are talking not only about china, but about india, including here, and for us, too. perhaps there is a place. uh, having eurasian eurasian the continent and something else is the alignment of the periphery around the existing one. uh, super savings, now the third. uh, the third scenario, which i considered unlikely. this is a multipolar world. uh, unlikely, because you know, here we are talking about a multipolar world. we immediately have something so good, all this is a world in which everyone loves each other, in fact, it will invent multipolar measures. not uh old, but i think that it was invented. this is the westphalian peace with some. so this is sorry for the expression. the end of the thirty years' war in 1648, when the leader, when

the europeans of europe, these principalities, are all tired of thrashing each other, and they threshed , before that, e each other for more than a hundred years, which means they killed a huge number of people, then it means they gathered in this, it means they concluded the westphalian peace, which is based on the balance of forces, that is this is a balancer and some, so it’s not a core. yes, france credited for this role. so, if suddenly this is the function of such, then the mediator is weakening or if the balance forces are disturbed , it balances this is war, therefore these cruel a world constantly teetering on the brink of war. this is what a multipolar world is from my point of view. i think he is small. with this, he may be lining up, but it will be very fast . and the last one is also a scenario, er, which i suppose. this is the base of the fortress. i'm like this in a world in a world of chaos. it's controlled chaos.

uh, primarily in parts of the global south. uh, hmm strange central asia uh, the likelihood of this scenario is increasing due to climate change primarily due to food kris from the water situation. if the world does not cope with this , the likelihood of this scenario will increase. thanks a lot. indeed, a very solid description of both what was and what is likely to be. i am personally grateful to you for a multipolar world, because we are in the altai club in particular. eh, it's been a long time. m-m we carry out the messenger the multipolar world. on my own. this is not the goal at all. this is an environment, and the environment is quite problematic and really aggressive, and quite

right. you said this is a purely western concept. well, there, bring it to the weight or where this is a separate discussion, but the fact that in the modern sense these poles are products of american thought e of the seventies . this is known and another question is that when the russian federation adopted this concept, it had a very definite meaning against hegemony in the nineties, evgeny matyevich primakov, but now yes, we have come to this, eh. already a question. what does this mean, thank you very much, but there was so much touched upon here that we, of course, don't have enough time. we could probably discuss everything for three hours, but kolya, we have gone on a large scale, then i can’t help but ask, uh, our dear guest and friend of the valdai club professor hudson from uh, universities of the genre of business and economics. uh, andrey romych uh, mentioned different

types. china and as the most important factor is the attitude of china to the usa and that, of course, is extremely important for us. eh, curious. this is the dialectic of protectionism, when everything seems to be. uh, those who were against steel for those who were accused of protectionism became, on the contrary, please, professor he thank you very much. it is a great honor for me to be here on this forum. e in st. petersburg and participate in this panel, i want to say, first of all, that globalization. uh, it 's happening, and i want to say now that orientation is happening now, there are certain reasons for this

to happen and additional pandemics. uh, there were some interesting developments in terms of globalization, of course, the american uh, they promoted this idea and trump when u came to power and uh, here uh, the blow against globalization began with the arrival of trump and uh, there is opposition to this trend. this, of course, is primarily due to, uh, wealth inequality and, uh, the concept of national security or nationalist security has begun to gain momentum. and of course the concept of what concerns economic security and economic sovereignty have become the order of the day and,

in addition, there are softer language that is related to a sustainable supply chain and other things. it's just, uh, primarily to protect the interests of the united states. besides, there are other things. unilateral action from the united states and growing competition between the united states and china now that's uh american dominance on a global scale, but very seriously questioned nonetheless. these economic relations are becoming very complex. and, of course, as of now

, the trade turnover between the us and china is 7 billion dollars and beyond that. these uh trading operations in china are about 400 billion. uh businesses are companies like tesla stabucks, uh, that are very active uh works in china and uh, they work very successfully and so the relationship is very complicated and everything that is done. uh, the united states and produced in the united states is accompanied by events such as inflation and creates quite

serious problems. and of course. washington wants to write everything off. uh, that such a situation has developed and of course, it must be said that a very serious ideology also interferes in economic relations. and uh, of course, the americans take advantage of it. president biden, says this is what this a struggle between a liberal democracy and edictatorial ones. and today, this existing world order and these sanctions that have been imposed against russia are now strengthening the orientation of global e-e

commodity flows. and uh, for example, things like agricultural fertilizer products. these are very important products that affect the entire world trade in this part. and uh now, uh, the top 10 countries that supply fertilizer products to the uh, international market, and eight of them are subject. uh, the most various sanctions, certainly. uh, these are the relations of the european union, the presence of these blocs and what is happening.