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broadcast of the energy panel good morning, dear ladies and gentlemen, colleagues, friends, we are starting the work of the energy panel of the 26th st. petersburg international economic forum. i thank you for the invitation to moderate one of the central panels of this forum. i say ivanovich i ask you thank you very much alexander aleksandrovich dear participants and guests of the forum, changes in the global economy and energy, how its foundations are gaining more and more momentum and our forum is acquiring special significance from the point of view view of the analysis of ongoing changes. i am glad to welcome the participants in our discussion today in the face of unprecedented sanctions

, we do not want to name all of our partners in the hall. how is this done in law enforcement agencies? it's a joke. nevertheless , i'm joking again at the request not to direct the cameras into the hall. if you want, we can call our session the secret evenings, taking into account the time for the morning, so i want to start with the words of special thanks. to all participants in western civilization prosperity, which was ensured through tools such as colonization, slavery, the inquisition, up to the use of nuclear weapons against civilians in the cities of hiroshima and nagasaki, which claimed the lives of more than half a million people , showed that the main method of interaction

is coercion. the attempt to implement the green transition utopia has already brought disastrous consequences by the actions of irresponsible regulators has been introduced, in fact. forbidden investments in traditional energy, with no clear-cut goals of viable technologies understanding the long-term consequences of their actions. they launched a process that gave rise to a crisis in the global energy sector, unleashed inflation on world markets. all this has been exacerbated by the impact of the pandemic. it should be noted that both world practice and our own show that disasters are caused by a combination of a number of factors that have not been taken into account, and some of them. but in principle it is impossible to take into account, and the fundamental reasons are added to the chain of unforeseen circumstances from my own experience. i know that this happens with all major man-made disasters. eh, i'll remind you. about fukushima engineers

the electrician provided for seismic protection of the station and it survived, but the tsunami factor was not taken into account. the station was located on the ocean. this experience comes in hindsight, it is impossible to place such objects on the coast in seismic zones, another. example, when an accident occurred at the foreign shushenskaya hydroelectric power station, when a set of vibrations occurred in the odessa hydraulic dam, the destruction of the dam arose after the subsequent flood. we managed to build a drainage tunnel and a system for dampening the speed of water by volume in the line. agars literally lead into operation in just a few days. uh, before the flood began, the urgent time was the same unexplored factor, with the already launched fall in global markets. could and still could be a us default, new risks will initiate the necessary

decision to minimize them. e, these are the formation of new payment mechanisms, the departure from the dollar, the creation of new secure supply chains that provide market access to the advantages that europe previously had and which were the basis for the competitiveness of european industry. now e started receive apr countries lockdowns and barriers to trade and investment. led to stagnation to change cooperation. fragmentation of fragmentation has arrived. regionalization. everything that we used to think of as the hallmarks of liberal free-market democracy. the destruction of the foundations of international contract law, the destruction of the arbitration system , the destruction of all institutions of the market economy, the destruction of all institutions of the market economy;

election cycle, long-term investment objectives are replaced by someone's short-term goals and political demagogy. all this spins the flywheel of the box office bringing collapse. it is also a fact that any increase in resources today is given to us more expensively, and we need more and more of them, it is also necessary to take into account that all intentions, ambitions and plans for radical changes rest against the colossal inertia of the economy , overcoming which requires additional costs and does not guarantee the desired result. let's see what awaits us and what we need get ready. the climate has changed throughout the history of the earth, including periods of both global cooling and warming. this is an objective cyclical process, along with climate change. the so-called global warming is

an obvious fact already now, but about the nature of the reasons for the speed of long-term. these processes of scientific consensus do not exist. the concepts on which the policy of the green transition is built on the absolutization of the anthropogenic factor are not confirmed. an indisputable fact is also an objective scientific research and a significant increase in average temperatures. at the same time , temperature changes are manifested unevenly in different regions. for example, in a pharmacy, global warming manifests itself four times faster than in other parts of the planet, which creates additional risks for the coast of the seas of the arctic ocean, including a study related to possible flooding, published in the authoritative scientific publication nature communications indicates that by the middle of the 21st century, the arctic will be practically free, then until september, and by the end of the century there will be no ice even in

october, which will significantly expand the navigation window for shipping, thus development plans. the sevmopute is based on real climate dynamics with climate change, and new opportunities are emerging related to access to the resources of the arctic zone. and where the resources already discovered only by our company amount to about 20 billion tons of oil equivalent. global warming is another significant factor in the growth of energy consumption in in turn , the world's ventilation and air conditioning systems already accounted for about ten percent, and of all electricity produced, and the fiftieth year the world's demand for maintenance. indoor climate protection could triple and in terms of total energy consumption it will surpass the us and the eu together, taken, unfortunately, the declared energy transition is not provided with the necessary technologies. we are faced with the fact that renewable energy, in fact

, is not renewable; moreover, the authors of the green transition, which imposes unilaterally, certain standards have not yet understood that their rules need to be harmonized with those. who has the production capabilities and the corresponding resource base, since a significant part of the production of equipment for renewable energy is located in china, which has concentrated in its hands the full cycle of solar panel production. this is 79% of the world polycli production. me 97% of the production of plates 85% of the cells 75% of the panels, thus providing 85% of the global production of solar panels with a key is also the question of the cost of energy transition according to the estimates of the international energy agency by 2030 investment. clean energy should almost triple from the current $1.7 trillion to $4.6 trillion

a year, or two to five percent of global gdp according to marchesia estimates, to achieve carbon neutrality. only the main sectors of energy, transport industry, utilities, agriculture, forests, climate projects, will require at least 99.2 trillion dollars of annual costs up to 250 years, which is 250 trillion dollars. of these, 3.5 trillion for new low- emission assets and associated infrastructure should be noted. what separate breakthrough technologies appear in my opinion are, uh, new developments of electric vehicles that have gained popularity in certain countries. we see a significant increase in the share of new car sales. it has reached about 25% in china, europe, and, taking into account

hybrids, it can reach 35-38, respectively, on average around the world. sales have already reached about 14%, does this mean that found panacea for all problems? the number of electric vehicles has exceeded 25 million in the whole world, but their share in the total passenger car fleet is about two percent and even according to optimistic forecasts it will reach 20 only decades later, that is , electric vehicles remain the privilege of a select few countries china germany usa japan that can afford huge investments into the appropriate infrastructure and generation. at this rate of electrification. the fleet will depend not only on the production of electric vehicles and on subsidies the growing number of electric vehicles will certainly be a serious risk factor for the global energy system and the real test and

sustainability problem associated with high load on the network and the simultaneous charging of a large number of electric vehicles will be especially noticeable at the local level in residential areas. for example, according to e, the mayor in 3.000 districts of the netherlands load at the same time charging. more than steel electric vehicles. you can exceed the capacity of a typical district network in the twenty-fifth year. percentage of the same on the international the energy agency in california, which notes an already high level of blackouts, it will be necessary to increase the program for upgrading the local electric grid five times compared to current plans in order for it to be able to take the load from electric vehicles by the thirtieth year, we are not even talking about regions where - where such a network is not at all logical. assume that the climatic sense of the electric vehicle. this is the provision of its green generation, so it is obvious that it makes no

sense to buy electric vehicles if it will to work on coal generation. and therefore , it is critically important to increase investments in the generation and supply of green energy, in addition to the natural growth in demand for electricity only to meet the needs of green generation electric vehicles. e-e will need to be further increased by a quarter of e by 2050, according to m estimates, the cost of energy networks and related infrastructure by the forties should quadruple from about 300 billion dollars a year to more than 1.2 trillion dollars a year of current prices. again, we cannot ignore the problem of the production of its recycling of the batteries themselves, the huge volumes of raw materials necessary for this and the corresponding increase in the production of metals, as well as their complete localization, as i said. uh, technology, uh, to. unfortunately, there are no relevant ones yet.

for a number of critical metals, investment growth should be even more significant bhp believes investment in medic mining should grow at least 13 times from $20 billion to $250 billion by 1930, but only about 50 have been confirmed. for the other two words of necessary investment, according to bhp, it is important to create an attractive and fiscal and regulatory environment, attempts to replace one metal with another more affordable in the production of a battery will require new technologies that ensure, at a minimum, the preservation of the necessary characteristics. in fact , carbon neutrality is unattainable on a global scale, taking into account the current floor of green technologies. many of the required technologies are still in the experimental development stage. at the same time , oil and gas technologies are currently are at the peak of their development in terms of

economic efficiency technology, and they can surpass those equal to me in terms of physical indicators of energy density and calorific value. only not mastered until hydrogen and thermonuclear fusion. the mistake of abandoning oil and gas is recognized even by oil and gas companies that have previously made a bet on accelerated energy transitions, and now they are postponing previously announced goals, for example, bp in february of this year admitted that the world needs oil and gazelle is stronger. what the company expected earlier and before the thirtieth year additional invest 8 billion dollars in new mining projects. this week. decided to reconsider, and strategic guidelines with an emphasis on long-term stability and production maintenance, providing the shareholder with higher returns compared to green projects and did not announce an increase in investments. on a four-year horizon, by 15% due to exploration. and exxon oil and gas production is the same to date , the improvement of technology in conventional

production gives more effect in terms of real reduction of emissions than investments in immature alternative technologies , so the oil and gas sector itself should become a priority at the current stage of the green transition. the united states once again avoided the so-called technical default, that is, once again temporarily canceled the so-called debt ceiling, which allows the government, a further increase in borrowing, to pay attention to the collision that occurred on the way to this solution. during the tough bargaining between democrats and republicans, there was a threat from president biden used the fourteenth amendment to the us constitution, allegedly allowing to guarantee the execution of the budget in spite of debt obligations, let me remind you. this amendment, adopted as a result of the american civil war in 1868, was intended to prevent

the payment of compensation to the slave owners of the southern states for the slaves freed by the thirteenth amendment of the constitution, since the fifth amendment of the constitution guaranteed the protection of private property and, in case of its withdrawal by the state, compensation is required. agree, this is a bright remarque to the question of sources of american prosperity. the systematic history of the long ceiling and the threat of us technical default is perceived by many, as political churches , in fact, at the heart of the problem is the real pending bankruptcy of the united states, a huge debt cannot be paid and the further, the more with rising rates. it will be impossible to service over the past 30 years , us government bonds have jumped 10 times from three. yes, more than 31 trillion dollars.

this is twice the economic growth and the cost of maintaining it can reach one trillion a year. and this is one-fifth of the uh budget, and this figure is growing. and here's an interesting slide now to look at, which says that the age of low interest rates is over since the federal reserve. started to skyrocket to contain inflation, which was the result of a liquidity bubble inflating in recent decades from the lowest interest rates in 5,000 years of civilization in the early bronze age. as a result, 22 became the worst year in history in terms of the yield of world government bonds, and issued since 1865 against this background, the fresh statements of the head of the fed pavel from the firm

intention at any cost to suppress inflation and raise rates for several years, despite the forecast for a long time to 51 trillion dollars from the thirtieth year testifies to the extremely serious. what are the solutions to the problem ? what solutions are offered to us ? debt. and here, as evidenced by the confession of the head. the fed's dangerous limit has already been reached, the third. actually default or partial default and the fourth war of the united states, this is a war only by economic means. here is a slide vividly showing that the main problems have always coincided with the participation of the us soldiers. us debt always coincides with the big wars that america is waging. judging by this schedule

, today the us is waging a war comparable to world war ii, at least in terms of the financial component. around the debt ceiling, let me remind you that initially the republicans proposed to increase the debt ceiling by only one and a half trillion dollars, the difference between what the administration of the proposal had planned since the publication of 957 million . how easy it would be to solve the us debt problem by refusing to debt to these countries, as they did with fishermen 155 years ago. who is the main holder of us debt over hated them, the main threat. their

main risks are obviously that a strange arthr is under threat, that is, the problem of the largest holders of american debt is that the americans have a problem with debt in a popular expression. uh, ivan krylov, you are to blame for the fact that i want to eat , or, as noted back in the early 1970s by the secretary of the treasury, the united states, john connelly dollars. it's our currency, but it's your problem. thus, the dollar becomes a problem both as a reserve currency and as an instrument of international settlements. in this case, the dollar will to remain for a long time, the main instrument of calculation and the main reserve currency in connection with the huge system of financial instruments and mechanisms created on its basis, influencing prices, exchange rate policy, and so on, yes, the dollar, which is accelerating at a pace , is losing its positions, but it will die slowly, and you need to save yourself urgently and here a huge role belongs to the central banks

of the wanderings available to maintain sovereignty in organizing a system for cleaning mutual settlements of swaps for the transmission of financial messages to new payment settlement systems. it seems extremely important to separate two interrelated, but not identical problems - an alternative reserve currency against the backdrop of a slow weakening of the dollar and the rapid formation of alternative payment and settlement systems between interested countries and economies, weakening the global role of the dollar. it began more than 10 years ago and the most significant step for implementation, paradoxically as the united states did, was made an instrument of sanctions. despite the apparent lull, the problems in the us banking system have not gone away and regional banks continue to experience problems about 700-800 banks experience problems with capital assets as

a result of the first banking crisis, the american regional banks included in the standardpours index lost about 25% of their value, while the entire us banking system is only about 20 a-a , while the index. uh, standard 500 up 8%, international credit rating agency moody's revised outlook for the us banking industry sector outlook was downgraded to negative levels further here the interest rates will cause a new wave of bankruptcy. there is no doubt that the us monetary authorities, uh, are capable of stopping these problems to a certain extent. however , this parallel limit the ability to fight inflation, periods of high inflation have happened before, although recently. they have been forgotten in the west, but they have never been accompanied by a debt crisis of this

magnitude . debts in the world have met the goals of gdp growth however, in the past 20 years. the so-called developed countries, and in particular the united states, began to clearly abuse their position in the financial sector sharply, starting to build up debts and inflate the value of assets inflationary, that it is possible to replace the dollar and how quickly, in order to qualify for the status of a new reserve currency, the country must be large enough and sustainable economy, and should also be secured free and barrier-free capital transactions prospects. the place becomes a currency, backed by commodity commodity flows, which gives them weight and liquidity. this is primarily the yuan ruble, as one of the most resource-provided currencies, but there are at least two problems. this geopolitical pressure from the current hegemon and the risks associated with the lack of targeting of the ruble exchange rate still does not allow it to provide cross-border

lending to prevent the rotation of the ruble into the regional settlement system unpleasant excesses at the turn of the century. uh from 1899 to 1902, us secretary of state john hay formed a new global strategy in the so-called three notes, the us uh, called the open door policy the basic principle of ensuring equal access to goods and markets. it was dawn pak from an american confident in herself and her competitive advantages. america sought the maximum removal of any barriers. and now we can say carefully the doors are closing america , which has lost its competitive edge , demonstrates an open door policy, trying to keep the elusive leadership in order to meaningfully talk about the fate of the global energy market and

the economy. in general, it is necessary to state the fundamental circumstances. the market economy no longer works. as the main mechanism for global capital regulation, high inflation, high interest rates, breaking the global chains of risk of deficits. and hence, the priority of security and the state, as the main guarantor of this security, localization is vital important industries militarization of the economy , provision and replenishment of commodity stocks , resource security, and that's it. these are economic tasks in it that are beyond the power of private capital, even large capital, which now, if it can exist, then only in the regime of state partnerships. let's return to gas as a result of the refusal of russian supplies, the absence of other sources of lng, an important consequence for europe

was the complete dependence of the european energy sector on the supply of energy resources and, in fact, the united states. european diversification policy sources of supply suffered a complete collapse before the sanction, we supplied 160 billion cubic meters of gases, and the united states increased supplies in the twenty-second year only to the level of 70. due to the growth of energy costs in the eu , a number of energy-intensive industries closed in december 22. % output of pig iron from steel by 17% december, well 21 years for the year. the decline in consumption led to a fall in prices, but consumption never recovered. at the same time, consumption fell primarily in industry in the twenty-third year, despite a significant drop in gas prices. e in europe, demand for january march was on average 17% below the average level in the seventeenth twenty-second years

of production, in industries whose output declined significantly in the twenty-second at the beginning of the twenty-third did not show a recovery while the overall level of output in the industry. in march 23 fell by 3.5% compared to december, 22 years of depressing dynamics the flight of energy-intensive production from the eu make the european economy still weak and vulnerable. world oil demand 23 according to current forecasts by the international energy agency and opec will grow by two and four tenths of a million barrels per day, a new record of 102 million barrels per day has been set. in the long term , physical volumes of oil consumption are estimated to increase by about 15 million barrels per day plus 15% by 45 and together with natural gas. it will continue to provide more than 53% of global

primary energy demand. africa's population growth is forecast to rise by 74% in the fiftieth year from 1.4. e three, uh, hundredths to 2.49 billion people, while in other regions the population will grow by an average of only 10%. from 6.55 to seven as many as 22 billion people, africa will account for 34 of the world's 100% of the world 's population, compared to 22. time, in terms of growth in energy demand in africa , it is projected to be around 780 percent by the fiftieth year, that is, the pace growth in energy demand will be comparable to population growth rate, this fact indicates an underestimation of the real potential for growth in consumption in africa

, which is faced with the task of eliminating energy poverty and the solution of this task will lead to higher growth rates in energy demand, which has yet to be realistically assessed. no investment is taking place not only in mining, but also in exploration, which has already led to underperturbation of production. e, the increase in new reserves in execution is about 90% of the volume of exploratory drilling are steadily declining, while their emphasis is directed towards deeper and deeper keyboards. now the average size of discoverable fields in the world is about 15 million tons of oil equivalent, which is not comparable with the giant discoveries of the seventies saudi arabia siberia in russia, e . however, it becomes more difficult for a strange object to reach general solutions.