in the capital 10 we continue to broadcast the morning news. so, the ukrainian orthodox church announced the seizure by the authorities of ukraine of the case of his pechora lavra lawyer, acting in the interests of the monastery. he said that representatives of the reserve, with the support of the police, had already opened the locks and entered the seventies building. according to him , the authorities have no legal basis for such actions. let me remind you that the situation around the abode escalated at the end of march. the ukrainian authorities unilaterally terminated the lease agreement with the ukrainian orthodox church and demanded that

the monks leave the monastery, the clergy refused to comply with illegal demands and both parties went to court. to strike at the administration building of the volnovakha district , the american haymars system was used, the updated data of the investigation were announced by ukrainian militants to the rio head of the region denis pushilin. one of the shells shelled the city the night before. literally passed through the building through three floors, victims. no, three of them have minor herbs. in total, we’ll bend from the side of ukraine for a day turned out to be six, the settlements of the dpr, the joint control center recorded almost fifty eight civilians were injured in the shelling , our correspondent stanislav is following the development of events in the region gorlovka and senova are now under a powerful blow, and ukrainian militants have been hitting these cities,

especially brutally over the past few days. uh, as far as we know, there are victims who use nato- style heavy weapons. well, it’s worth saying that again there is no one in donetsk, the kuibyshev and kiev district cities were calmly hit on the eve of the petrovsky district. there are serious injuries. got two people. destroyed, two there were no military facilities nearby, but, nevertheless, ukrainian militants continue to destroy civilian infrastructure, thereby killing the civilian population of donbass . and now a live broadcast from st. petersburg. in general, for the second year already, our economy is going through a period of deep structural transformation. the twenty-second year has shown that both the russian business and the financial sector. ah, in particular, but able to adapt to

work quite successfully even under such pressure, and the process of structural transformation. of course, it is not homogeneous ; somewhere it happens faster and more successfully. uh, somewhere less successful and here in this session. we just want to discuss the essence of the meaning in general and the course of this, but structural transformation. what it consists of is needed, it is not needed. how might it be improved. what actions on the part of the e-regulator on the part of the state on the part of business are necessary in order for this structural the transformation was successful, and i will be happy to introduce our speakers with us today vladimir verkhoshinsky chief managing director, alpha bank martyn galstyan, chairman of the central bank of armenia german gref president chairman of the board of sberbank andrey kostin president chairman of the board of vtb elvira nabiullina chairman of the bank of russia and sergey shvetsov chairman of the supervisory board of the moscow exchange. first question. i, uh,

would like to address the central banker, here, but in the context of structural transformations. need to understand how monetary policy works. is the previous decision suitable for the previous regimes, and the monetary policy for the transition to a new economy and for its own successful functioning of this very new economy, martyn candles, if i can start with you, you have a very interesting situation in armenia in general, and last year your gdp grew by 12.6% yes, this is the fourth result in the world. not to mention , uh, the eurasian space. and this year, according to various forecasts, gdp growth is expected well, by about 7%, something around that inflation slows down sharply at the end of may, if i'm not mistaken, it generally went into the red, uh, the dram is strengthening. and this is against the background of such multidirectional factors, on the one hand. this, of course, is an influx of relaxants, an influx of finance, and this positive economic shock, but on the other hand. uh, still remaining geopolitical

tensions in the region. here's to your point of view. what role did your monetary policy play in this economic growth that we are still seeing, because, as far as i understand, it is rather, uh, set itself the goal of limiting this growth, because the key rate for the first time was only in june. thanks a lot, good morning. er, if you'll excuse me, i'd like to start our discussion. eh, with two fundamental ones. in my opinion, theses that would help us to make any discussion about the transformation. here is the first thesis - is there any significant conflict between macroeconomic stability and structural transformation and the second question that i would like to voice is is it possible make progress in the field and transformation by injecting money into the economy, be it

helicopter money or artificial interest rate cuts. these, in my opinion, are the two main questions that we should probably answer and present to the court during the session. here are our answers about the armenian economy. how did you notice? what we faced in 2022 was a very large influx of quality workforce. demand, which strengthened the national currency and in turn, the way we faced the inflationary phenomenon in 2016. we had inflation

8.3, then the central bank did not partially restrain the strengthening of the national currency, which helped us to restrain the understanding of interest rates and solve the issue of inflation. as you noticed? we now have twelve-month inflation in the region of 1.3% per annum. uh, the central bank started cutting interest rates, but i want to point out that we were probably the first central bank in the world to start tightening monetary policy. we are in 2020 . when so many central banks were still debating whether transitory is it a phenomenon or not, we raised the interest rate, and we were sure that demand and the injection of money into the economy during the cavid pandemic would result in inflation and inflationary expectations in order to anchor our inflationary expectation. we have decided to act preventively at the end of 2020.

uh, what is happening in the economy now, you are the economy, now we are seeing a structural shift, we have not only uh, but a large increase in external demand, but we are seeing that our potential gdp is growing due to inflow, but new skilled migrant workers and plus an influx of capital, and we see that a process begins in our economy when we see that our productivity is growing. the underlying most important factor is e for the development of economic growth and from this point of view we think that a is the most important factor e for sustaining such growth. this is a strict

disciplined macroeconomic policy on the part of the central bank to reduce and ensure the inflation target, which we also announced from the side states in the field of fiscal policy. we think that the current situation, when we have growth above the potential, fiscal policy should be purely restraining and the state. in this period of time , reserves should be accumulated for other cyclical phenomena that will appear after which will appear very soon. uh, capital inflow capital inflow is a very difficult question to answer in terms of time lag because we don't know how it will convert. this is the injection of capital and human resources into productivity. if we have this process

, then we will have it. uh, higher estimates for potential growth. and so on , it will be easier if we have external demand all the time and internal sponsorship ahead of being above the potential, then there will be, uh, i will be needed. all these fiscal monetary credit measures. i'll clarify the last one. that is, it works. uh, the structural transformation of the armenian economy . that's what is happening now. but mostly only in a. pretty hard road accident uh, i would just clarify a little bit that this is a question. not only in dkp. i will give you an example in our it sector. here in the last seven years, growth in the order of 20% range. and here is the new infusion. it revitalized and added momentum to this growth here. mtp, as such doesn't

matter much, but mtp. e in the field of his activity. we, when we do, uh, inflation expectations, that's inflation defined for market participants, it adds to the enthusiasm. it is the same as ours 4%, you expect to exit, there is not even in the twenty-fifth year, but later correctly we will have lower bidding this year, but we we we know that it will be below the target, but we have a twofold problem with inflation there, because we have a very strong drop in prices for goods, but we still have high inflation for services, and therefore this does not allow us to be more aggressive in reducing the percentage rates. thanks elvirsky given. i also want to ask you questions about monetary policy . the central bank conducted a review of the monetary policy, moreover, and

it started it even before, let's say. so the beginning of the structural transformation is finishing now, when the process is in full swing, these are all the changes taking place for the second year, how they change the view of the regulator on the parameters of accidents and their flexibility. and how do you rate? this is, perhaps, even more important, how we assess their course of the structural transformation itself. uh-huh she good afternoon, first of all welcome everyone i 'll start with a review of monetary policy. we continue to conduct it, we have not finished it yet. these are important events for us, because in discussions with the expert community with business representatives in the regions we discuss the effects and effectiveness of the monetary policy that we carried out for a long period of time and hmm can immediately say that we are not only introspection. yes, this is indeed a discussion, but we come to the conclusion that the monetary policy regime, and this

is inflation targeting, a floating rate, first of all, it shows its effectiveness, both in calm times, and in periods of sharp shocks, and in periods of structural transformation that we are now experiencing. why because, firstly, it gives flexibility during shocks, the economy absorbs more easily. these are all the negative crisis external hmm events and the second gives. e of the economy is nominally an anchor that allows you to expand your planning horizons. eh, really. here is the seventeenth to the twenty- first year relatively free free quiet period. we had inflation at 4.2%, uh, well, so far, what do we see, while hmm, low predictable inflation has not yet become a full-fledged anchor for the economy. we need to move towards this. uh, it takes time for there to be

trust, for there to be an understanding that after each shock there is a jump in inflation. we will definitely bring inflation back to the target and the international will persuade. we are also studying it. what is needed to make low predictable inflation work, like such an anchor nominally, so that it really leads to moderation? long-term rates need years. well, there are probably decades from the period of double-digit inflation, and uh, in our country, of course, the situation is aggravated by the fact that these shocks, shocks, when prices jump occurs quite often, probably in some other country. i can't name that frequency. these are the shocks. uh, and uh, we still uh, we see that hmm appears more confidence that the central bank will not let inflation get out of control, and this is reflected , among other things, in the dynamics of lending, for example,

in the fifteenth year. we had a lending squeeze. eh, last year. no , on the contrary, the banking sector helped the economy survive this period, of course. here, the fact that the financial sector itself has become healthier has also played an important role, and , uh, this is very important, because we are the resources for the structural transformation of the economy, i absolutely agree with martyn, artashevich here that stability and transformation is not an alternative to non-opposite. we sometimes say, uh, there's growth or inflation and growth and, uh, low inflation, there's no growth, uh, associated with investment, unless there are moderate long-term rates, and moderate long-term rates don't happen on the basis of high inflation. they are only based on low predictable inflation. and now our

situation, you asked about structural transformation, if we talk about the economy as a whole, this is a change in many proportions in the economy. for example, we change the proportion external and domestic demand is an active import substitution of external demand. our geography is also changing. e hmm and this requires serious infrastructure projects directed, for example, to the east, the structure of domestic demand is changing. look , for example, in domestic tourism and all this transformation, of course, should and will be supported by the financial system. i haven't said a few words yet about the floating exchange rate. uh, because it's really such an important element. e of this regime of monetary policy. e, and

we see that when the exchange rate weakens, various conspiracy theories begin in our country that , almost on purpose, weakening in order to increase budget revenues or some other theories hmm and, but we must first of all look at the dynamics of foreign trade. she e largely determines the movement of the course. and, for example, a large-scale strengthening of the course. last year. many perceived. how can such a victory be sustained, but it must be honestly admitted that it was, after all, the result , first of all, of a sharp increase in exports and decrease in imports then. now if we look at the dynamics of the exchange rate. it also explains a lot. uh, hmm foreign trade. if, for example, to compare e, i'll just name this figure. it seems to me that it is indicative. uh, if you compare uh, the positive current account in

the first quarter of this year, compared to last year's peak, it fell five times. and uh, hence the floating rate. yes, it is under the influence of foreign trade and is changing. we have tools to smooth out short-term fluctuations in our swap there, but the floating rate in our mind's eye. it is a blessing that allows. these external changes, external shocks are easier to absorb and save. i'll probably stop here. and can i still then the question is just about the floating rate. and i will ask not only, after all, the terms of foreign trade determine the exchange rate of the ruble, but also short-term, but very stormy such failures determine some kind of geopolitical domestic political events. as far as we can talk about some kind of predictability and stability of road accidents . that's it in such conditions. floating rate

indeed, under the influence of many factors, we are talking about foreign trade, because this is the most significant factor, but , for example, the growth, for example, of budget expenditures, which increase demand in the economy and thus the demand for imports, also affects. this is also not some factor. well, there are short-term fluctuations under the influence of geopolitics. uh, you're absolutely right, but still, we think that, uh, the floating rate can really be volatile in the shock uh, but it's important that it doesn't break away from the fundamentals, like both exports and imports are affected by attempts to artificially maintain this rate, they end, and we know in our history periods of deep devaluation, when hmm this does not happen gradually and uh, business e meets with such silky changes and i want to say that in our decisions on monetary credit policy

of course, we take into account the dynamics of the exchange rate as well. uh, how can it take into account these risks. now the dynamics of the exchange rate bears about inflationary risks, and we will take this into account when making a decision, a on the key rate. well one more thing important note. in itself, low predictable inflation. it reduces exchange rate fluctuations. this shows international experience, that is, the more predictable, the more, say, low inflation, the less fluctuations in the exchange rate. thank you mutual movement. yes, then i’ll just add that the central bank was lucky in this regard of the central bank. i think much more than journalists, and the whole public knows about the structure of our import exports, and the structure and volumes, so we are now all guided only by your forecasts , if what, but vladimir vyacheslavovich and i want to ask you, but as the largest private bank

that fell under e, sanctions, you had to deal with internal structural transformation rather, or did external shocks from this notorious external transformation turn out to be stronger for you. of course not. it seems to me that every company, on an external shock, has to respond with internal transformations, and, for me personally, such a surprise is a lesson or a discovery of the last crisis. in fact, the last two crises in was that the response to external shocks, he did not dictaphoncratic is not technological. pentalgin extrigel contains the highest dosage of the substance against more inflammation pentalgin extragel against more inflammation in muscles and joints. get up off the couch, the new sportmaster app will help you become active launch an activity tracker, walk, run,

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business handle what? it seems to me that it was difficult to imagine under such a socialist regime a little, i will get to the bottom of you. okay what kind of stability, and what kind of stability?

on what horizon? can you now speak like a private bank? and in general, here we are now looking at the reports of banks and rejoice so now everything is fine. yes, such rapid growth. we hope that this growth will continue and continue, but at the same time there are forecasts that, in in general, it will end soon enough because of the low base effect and various other macroeconomic factors. what are you planning for yourself? for how long? and in general , it can already be said now that sanctions have not changed so much for the banking sector, not like that. it turned out to be a big problem or there is a disruption. well, i mean systems. yes, last year there was a huge loss there from foreign exchange revalued frozen assets. but it was one-time. all this remained in the past year, but systemically, in my opinion, sanctions. here are scared brought less than the same covid or don't even know when the central bank, sbp. launched or now

language models will be. and the only thing that, of course, withstand. these are only the best jars. i said a year ago that russia was left with seven banks. well, it is clear that 200 are regional niche players. there are some players there, really banks, who set trends and the market is interested in competition. well, in my opinion. now there are only five left. but what, uh, each of them is better than any european american bank? and the regulator is here. it seems to me not you should worry about competition, because we are doing well for customers. we are when the five- player oligopoly is the toughest competition with a bloodbath. vaughn, mallow alpha-ban. now i have canceled all commissions, payments for all transfers in general to all banks for clients good for employees. okay, we select teams for business well. eh, and in general, today they are already talking and talking a lot about such macroeconomic stability unexpectedly better than any

forecasts. how did the business deal with it? i believe that half of what is now what happens in this stability and economic success is the banking sector, the most advanced russian one is those five banks and, of course, the central bank. and it’s not even a matter of humanitarian policy, the dollar exchange rate is in those initiatives that the central bank made from the sps pc one night, when it all started , she called me, at the same time, the head of the mastercard visa apologized, said we were leaving russia tomorrow. and now, if you didn’t have everything that the central bank did not do, then it seems to me that we would have woke up a little to put it mildly, in a different social setting. that's why our forecasts for the horizon have not changed, if there are no macroeconomic ones, i hope there are global geopolitical cataclysms, then it will be a good year, the economy will continue to feel good and hold on. she will be including on these five banks and

the central bank of the fab five and the goalkeeper. thanks competition. by the way, we will return, in general, to the video of the state and to various monopolies. i hope we will have time to talk about them germanovich. i would like your opinion ask about the progress of e structural transformation. do you generally observe, uh, structural transformation, or is it just a change in some, but external and internal conditions without a really deep change in the very structure of the economy. good morning. e hmm i want to say that for the first time on the stage of the american theater and it's honestly, the feeling is just terrible, how much better from there, how they still manage to sing, play and dance it.

you know, structural transformation is also what it is, in particular structural transformations when you are being fried is such a complex story, vladimir said, i agree with most of them that after all , any transformation is done in a calm time. actually, what the central bank was doing in previous years. yes uh over the past 10 years there have been huge strides made in terms of sector transformation that is quantifiable . yes, there are as many as 200 banks. now there are 300 completely with something, and so on , of course, count the huge number of implemented initiatives. someone did not like someone did not like, but nevertheless in in the end it led to what it led to.

you can say as much as you like that you know the banking sector will earn a lot this year, thank god that it will earn a lot last year, it didn’t earn very much, well, obviously a direct fire on the banking sector. uh, the shot came , it was hard. but the main thing is that not a single bank collapsed in our country. and that we didn’t suffer in general, none of the uh investors and depositors, and with the exception, of course, of everything that was blocked in the outer circuit and what is the structural center structural transformation of the brain? yes, we have there, the cerebellum, the right left hemisphere is there , now i will remove something from this, or what? is this a transformation, or before you, i will say, think with the basal ganglia. well, somehow it's still the same in the economy and the financial sector.