tv RIK Rossiya 24 RUSSIA24 July 6, 2023 10:30am-11:00am MSK
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uh, you know, the banking sector will earn a lot this year. thank god that they earn a lot last year, they didn’t earn a lot, but obviously a direct fire on the banking sector. uh, the shot came hard. but the main thing is that not one bank has collapsed in our country. and that in general, none of the uh investors and contributors suffered, and with the exception, of course, of everything that was blocked in the external circuit and what is the structural trans-structural transformation of the brain? yes, here we have it, right left cerebellum the hemisphere is there, now i will remove something from this, or what? is this a transformation , or before you, i'll say, think with the basal ganglia. yes, well, somehow this is still the same in the economy and the financial sector , there is an established structure. and one way or another
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, this structure will continue to function. if we talk about transformation, we still need to understand what we are transforming. and where do we transform? that's why i don't really understand where and what do we need to transform now? here is where we have been for 10 years. it is clear the result can be check and feel and now very many colleagues living abroad. they say we are faced with banking in europe in the united states of america and lord in what kind of cave state are they? have you ever seen that someone came from somewhere in the united states of america or from germany and said, listen, he rode their mercedes terribly and found this. yes, it's point forward. yes, here are some areas where the client evaluates the work of one or another heart. this is true in the financial sector. and this
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something that we can be proud of, and somehow we are trying all the time. this is also a little e -level. and so and if something works out, well, then we are talking, but tomorrow there will definitely be no problems. there will be no problems in the banking sector, because the banking sector is in a permanent state until adjustment. uh to the current circumstances. here, therefore, here, well, my feeling is this and that the central bank has done its job well, the previous 10 years, so we are now all in e. very good. form. is here all the time. yes, here you are they said that e structural transformation is being done in a calm time, but in order to start it there was an impulse. we, unfortunately, do not start calm in times of doing something. here is a structural transformation to remember these financial sectors. after the last crisis and after the first wave of sanctions, we started
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such a serious transformation. after all, we are calm times. unfortunately, we often relaxed and this is an impulse that we and hmm we can pick up and the second thing i fear. we really have a financial sector, very advanced very advanced, no matter how we have complacency here that we have achieved everything, and the world is moving forward and here are new magical trends, how will our financial sector cope with this in the conditions that many technologies are not available to us. this answer will be from you from the banking sector, probably, what can we do in this regard? we are like the central bank, no , we are like the banking sector together the central bank and commercial banks, because we are really proud of what we can. a
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that's what we're going to do next in structural transformation. we have not gone through this structural transformation completely. we cannot say that now we have reached, there is some stage and then we can relax. well, i would like to say that in general it is better to always relax in a relaxed state, it is better to do the transformation. what we can do? the central bank, can not interfere? and we'll do the rest for sure. because we are customer oriented. here, if the client wants to trade crypto. well, let him trade lord, well, seriously, then of course, well,
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look. we often complain about the fact that now you know volatility has increased, but it has already increased a long time ago, it will change in the future, well, obviously. no, i used to talk about uh normal distribution, there are voice curves and so on. we are now talking about fat tails, yes, and a solid fat tail now and fat tails, what else are they called? well, it's obvious that it is? what can be? answer. the first it will end it will not end. in any case, beyond the horizon is unclear. next 10 years will never end. what can be the answer to this, you need to learn to live under water, this is normal here too. this is again called structural transformation, but it is obvious that , uh, management models need to be changed very much, and if earlier, 85% of the staff and 85%
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of the managers' time. e-e was spent on the provision of services or the production of goods, and 15% on managing changes and project-management setting up all systems, now the exact opposite is measured 85% of the staff and 85% of management time should be spent on e , we managed change. yes, in the broad sense of the word, but only 15% for the provision of services for the production of goods. if you have such a structure further, it can be 90 to 10 or 99 to one, but today, this is approximately the ratio. if you are in this trend, then it's obvious, or something, you will be able to adapt this this is the first, probably the most key change and uh, the banks here seem to me to be in good shape, everyone somehow mastered and ways of fast production and so
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on and so on , the second, of course, is already in the previous decision time period was at the limit of human cognition. now it is beyond the limits of human cognitive capabilities, and accordingly, it is necessary to use the latest technologies in order to master this area as well. we must be augments. yes, we must expand our abilities with the help of modern artificial intelligence systems. and here here. i think we are doing well too. eh, are we in any danger. that's what can lead to some uh degradative, there uh prospects and so on. today in the moment i don't see there is a problem. obviously there are problems
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for building the complexity of systems. uh, there are problems with training complex models, the requirements for uh power are increasing all the time. bye then. we're dealing with it. and i think that well, in any case , there are no such problems in the nearest future, i don't see it, i 'm answering your questions, so hmm. it seems to me that we have a good again in the financial sector. we have a good foundation. we are competitive, we can do a whole range of things that no one else in the world can do from a transactional point of view. experience is d or benking. all probably, well , in the world, you are unlikely to find the banking sector as a whole, which is able to do what we do, uh, we provide a loan to a legal entity. today we lost 8 minutes by 40%. well, in the world you will not find such examples. well, and so on and so on. so once again, our
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global competitiveness. yes , it is stimulated by a large number of crises. well, in general, it seems to me, professional politics, there is a regulator and despisers of the word do not want to say supervisory functions, er, the regulator and in general. i i don't see any threats. in short, and in the economy for structural transformation is no longer only the financial sector of the economy itself. you can see what structural threats threats, for example, are connected with the frontal cuts in budget spending. this is a quote from anton germanovich. the threat of frontal cuts, first at different stages of budget planning, the rhetoric of finance ministers, it is stable, in fact, so at this stage of budget
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planning. this is fine. why a threat, uh, if the finance minister is so position, on the contrary, it is not a threat. this is an indicator that we will probably be all right with macroeconomic stability. now, if he says that you guys either let's have an appetite, reduce your uh, the next budget cycle, or i will cut you all by 10%. this is fine. uh, normal uh mode to start a dialogue on this topic, so this is now we are in the standard. e ways. uh, standard budgeting process. uh, scheduling here doesn't see anybody any problem. economy, yes you are economy in the economy has many challenges, obviously. uh, what uh happened obviously requires a very serious transformation of a number of sectors of the economy and what can be the answer of the state obviously uh?
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liberalization competition creating competitive conditions for the private sector and reducing budgetary appetites for everyone, so as not to increase the tax burden, so as not to create contrast incentives for the economic growth of investments, which are now extremely important, so well, the process, it seems to me, is also developing logically normally and there is strategic are strategic industries. now it is obvious that they should be in priority, regardless of whether they carry some kind of uh, there may be economic sense at the moment or not, it is obvious that they should be different. uh, with the help of the state. uh, there must be a restructuring infrastructure, and this requires large colossal investments from the state, respectively, the requirements for
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the effectiveness of state policy. in general. they rise this period of time. and everything else, of course, to me. seems, tax incentives and public sector reduction competition. where you need competition is the obvious answer. it's not very difficult. at least big business. i mean in vent-foltax, of course. you know, we are a little uh, well, 300 billion rubles. to be honest, we talk about it more than uh. well, probably, the government needs to be prevented in terms of the fact that you see how we cry loudly for 300 billion rubles. if you rise even more, in general, we will cry even more. well, in principle, to be honest, e hmm, this is not very tangible for the economy as a whole, a further increase in taxes is obvious. well, if there are iron forms, they have already been developed on the basis of our practice. we parted a lot 1% increase. uh, taxes reduces gdp by 75%
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points. there are two years on the horizon. all this works. like clockwork, here you want to achieve economic growth by increasing the tax burden formula work and want to stimulate through government spending. economic growth, please, uh, one percent of spending gives 2 years of economic growth on the horizon, if correct, remember, 20. -28% of points, in my opinion, here's another well, here no need to arrange any abstruse forms, so everything is written here. here in these two simple elementary actions, so the choice is always political and the moment is obvious that the increase in the new year's load, especially at a time like this hmm will come to those of economic growth. thank you, andrey leonidovich, i really want to know your position on the meaning and essence of structural transformation, if i may. let's start with the financial sector. that is, what do you think, the financial sector, banks pass here
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this structural transformation, is it close to completion, what will happen next, and then i’ll immediately ask about the structural information of the entire economy and whether, in your opinion, strengthening the role of the state in the economy is necessary and an integral part of this stage of structural transformation. thank you good morning everyone. i do nonetheless. i would like to start with something else. i would like to remind you that june 24 will once have some negative associations for us, but there was one important positive event, namely, it turned 10 years old. position of the chairman of the central jar of elvirov's backwards nabiullina and and i not only want to congratulate her by saying that herman dwelled on these in some detail. volodya said over the years there has been a very deep, indeed, transformation in the supervision of the banking sector. and in general, our financial sector today has received
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a completely different financial sector. we have got a stable and efficient banking sector. we posture got an independent independent banking sector, we got a sustainable financial system. and this is thanks, of course, to personal assignments and that team that she has assembled over the years, so i really think that we should express gratitude and once again applaud this work. thanks now about your question. you know, i'm an experienced speaker, so i know what to answer, not what they ask. and what you want to say, first of all. and if there is time left, the state will give me the details again, which means they will force me to talk about privatization. and our partisanship is normal. i read here to put out the news, what does it mean this year we are at eight eight times overfulfilled the privatization plan, and the plan was, it turns out, 1.8 billion rubles.
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because at the current 18 million euros, two ruined mansions in the center of moscow can probably be sold for this money. we have such a plan, so today it’s not bad here. that's even talking about it, but i would like to say it differently. you know, that's for me, as i don't know for bankers who have worked a lot in international and societies associated with this area. here is a deep understanding that now is the time for the deepest trance. information, as vasily ivanovich chapaev said, already on a global scale , it is not enough for us to continue to deal only with ourselves. we need to engage in radical reform and building a new system of international payments for the infrastructure of the global capital market. if you do not decide for something, we will seriously not be able to move forward in the current conditions, when the world has become polarized and when we are experiencing today. here is the whole set. uh, the pressure that we have, we
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worked in the bank for a year and a half. and i am glad for nine such a program of four points, which my the team today proposes that the country's leadership be implemented by the central bank in order to create a parallel and efficient system of international settlements and financial market infrastructure. it is no secret that today it is based on western institutions, primarily, of course, financial ones, and a number of others. such become ideal and so on, which today allow the united states to actually control the international financial banking sector, as a result of which we are now experiencing serious difficulties with specifically with settlements with access to financial markets and so on. we propose to create a new system parallel to the so-called global south. this is called which includes four key points. the first is the replacement of the typeface with a new system for exchanging financial e-financial messages. this
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system should be built on new ones, and on new technologies it is not a secret today that when we transfer even rubles to respected banks from armenia, they are afraid first of all from the elevator. yes, because the transfer of rubles is generally allowed normally, but swift a system that is open to the west and , accordingly, these are huge problems. we already have in our system in russia in china. we need e effort to ensure that these systems, and to combine, combine to develop a single approach principles . this is probably the most challenging. in my opinion, the easiest, which can be solved in the near future, the second one needs to be replaced by direct relations, when the relationship between banks is built through a number of key players. today, these are primarily american banks for horizontal ties between local banks. there is great potential here. and
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blockchain technology. i think that it is on this basis that we can gradually create a system where you don't have to have cramps in the shield, and according to calculations in one or another currency, the third. we propose to create an alternative international depositary settlement hub. we all faced the problem of eurocler. stream european committee is thinking how to share the money of 3 billion that they earned on our frozen securities, in our opinion, uh, plus , of course, there is a full tie-up, uh western, uh, legal consultants, and all this infrastructure that exists today in the west. it does not allow us to work in this system today, so we believe that this is the center for basing a new financial depository. it may be strange that the persian gulf is in one of the persian gulf states, taking into account
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the concentration of large capital in this region , and the fourth point is the creation of new tools for attracting capital. today this. basically a eurobond. again, the entire infrastructure is built on western euro-leader with the russian singer platers agents. we propose to create new instruments that would also take into account national regulations. and the financial markets, and yet would allow precisely to keep records of the possibility of cross-border settlements between investors and issuers in different countries. uh, hmm we already have and huge resources honed uh, the so-called global south and a huge company one npc frame or from others. what else should we allocate and what capital to attract, i am sure that by creating and building such an entire system of, er, world capital markets
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for international settlements, and sooner or later it is a parallel system. uh, other than the dollar will come and western companies and western investors. and, you know, not only we feel it, yes, you have heard that zhanna monetary fund has already begun to speak. oh, uh, digital currencies and so on , the central bank , headed by olga nikolaevna, in a beautiful red suit, who sits on the front row, has done a great job lately. and i think that we are moving, she recently gave an interview to forbes and said that twenty-fifth twenty-seventh year. we will switch to payments in the digital ruble. i think that the twenty-fifth year is even better if we take it as a starting point. in short, it seems to me that this is the main task for our financial sector today, namely the creation of a system. we are not the only ones in russia who have solved many problems. we have created a financial market. we now need to create an international financial market, an international settlement system that operated in parallel with the fact that we are trying to fit them in somehow
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into the current system, because even bilateral settlements in national currencies have their own limitations and it is already necessary to work on a scale, as it were, globally, and there is a lot of work for everyone for the president for the government of the central bank and for us for the bankers. it seems to me that this is actually the most important thing today , we will solve our internal problems. uh, we have tight central bank interactions, and money we have money. we have full opportunity. we have a lot of us right us resource is not used. er, of course, largely private capital 70% of today's economy is public, and private capital is virtually today. i don't know, it's pretty hard to settle somewhere, so, uh, western assets are not very much encouraged by the central bank to buy. i'm here fully supported by the central bank. it is better to pick them up on occasion in fact.
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yes, but investments are limited, but hmm, the role in the state that today is, well, there are other er number of opportunities that are involved. i believe that and public resources can decent at the expense. uh, the growth of the state is long, so we have the opportunity to have resources, but i repeat, until we go beyond the limits of one of our economies and begin to solve the financial, uh, problems of the structure of the entire global market. we will not be able to ensure the effectiveness of the interaction of our economy in the system of world economic relations. thanks andrey lenivich, but i will still consider that you have answered the question about structural transformation. okay, four new goals for the elvirian targets were identified. i asked you comment. actually these goals and readiness. e regulator to move towards them. but i absolutely agree with the formulation of this task. indeed, in russia we have more or less solved the problems of both settlements and the financial market for the development of the banking sector, but
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the issues of ensuring our foreign economic activity and the openness of the economy. e to the world. e, of course, should be provided. this is what andrey ilyevich said about the system of international payments and the international capital market, of course, these tasks. we need partners to solve them, we do not we can decide. eh, that's the difficulty themselves. hmm, because it needs to be built, and the dialogue hmm is multilateral, as it is called a dialogue? although this is between two people, but a multilateral dialogue, er with partners, regarding the new financial messaging system. we have an internal one, it works inside. it is open to the outside world for accession by almost many. uh, hmm uh, large countries have such systems and the issues of conjugation of these systems, probably, not the creation of some new unified, maybe from something will grow, then a single one that unites, but conjugation of these systems. it's really
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very important and we see hmm what uh and the city relationship. uh, between banks, even in the calculations of the national currency, it does not always work. if not, it doesn't work. this is the financial messaging system. and on there, uh, support only on the drain. and i also see prospects in horizontal connections, using new technological solutions, of course. this will push out some sense of business. from banks yes, it will not m-m. what is the relationship between banks? and hmm horizontal? as you say, relations without intermediaries, but this is also technologically real , perhaps, and we need a depository settlement hub, probably , such a difficult task is quite difficult, but here we are ready to think together with the market what ideas can be offered to partners here, and hmm new ones financial instruments gave, although a set of financial instruments. we have e in the market enough m-m such diversified, but
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access to the international capital market. this is probably the most difficult task. or maybe be even more complicated than the international settlement and payments that everyone is talking about now, about which we are working exactly hmm opening the international capital market. all this, in essence, means that there are different ways to call multipolarity there, someone calls the blockade of fragmentation of regionalization. but such reliance on global financial systems and financial infrastructure, which until recently worked completely, will probably go away. how is the change in production chains to build a business investments hmm regionalize them and the same will happen in the financial system. and hmm, we, probably, should also be very
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active in this and should actively participate, and without this it will be impossible to ensure our foreign economic activity. well, and not only external economic activity, even the interests of people who travel, who should be able to pay and so on. and this task is the most difficult task, but it is an absolute priority and andrey nothing, thank you very much for setting it up so systematically. thank you. thanks martyshevich. can i tell you right away, please answer briefly, but the readiness of the central bank, armenia in general of armenian banks. and as he said, andrei ilyich should combine and unite the international payment system to build some kind of horizontal relationship. how realistic is this? i think that this is quite possible, and based on the fact that we have our own special relations in the economic sphere. er, but if you'll excuse me, i'd just summarize what was said. eh, i also think that it would be better to have such a double
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influence on all these processes on the one hand. we are talking about the role of the central bank in the financial market or financial instruments or e. this is all that is related to finance, and it should be ahead of the curve. we have said that the central bank of russia has made huge investments in infrastructure over the past 10 years. and what allowed russian commercial banks to reach a qualitatively new level, not only a bank, a bank that provides services to the population. i fully agree with this that central banks should play very important role from this point of view. the role, if not the role of the first violin, then, as it were , a very, very important role, but on the other hand, when we are talking about the transformation of the entire economy. here already i would be more restrained. i think the central bank. sometimes it can even play a deterrent role, because, uh,
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when there are processes, uh, that affect the entire economy, and we think already. e about completely new dimensions about completely new approaches, then the central bank. i think i should stay strictly in my field of activity, and we should be provided with a new stability, as i said. we should provide this nominal interval of the economy, so that businesses are sure that what we promise them about inflation is about financial stability. we must keep our promise. here. those are the two main things that central banks should be doing. i think always and everywhere. yes, i think it is. i think it is quite possible. we are working with the russian central bank in this area. i think we have very good
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cooperation and we are moving forward. thank you sergey anatolyevich first of all, i also congratulate you on your tenth anniversary. ah already of the central bank as mega-regulators, you are in general, a person a mega-regulator, like a man orchestra, uh, sergey anatolyevich i will also ask you, of course, to comment on the transformation of the stock market, because, probably, little has been transformed, as it is well, let's start maybe with andrei leonidovich's proposal for new financial instruments and the creation of a new depository hub. to what extent is this possible, in what time frame and what kind of time is it here? we have? there are perspectives in your opinion, thank you. well act after five, smart informed excellent speakers is always difficult, but when i reveal a secret. i had the tenth point with what andrei lyrically said, i absolutely support the process is very complex.
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