now let's get back to the information agenda, the president held a meeting with the permanent members of the russian security council to evaluate the situation around the ukrainian conflict, noted public opinion. it is changing about it, including in europe , the elites and ordinary citizens are beginning to realize that supporting kiev is, in fact, a waste of money and effort. vladimir putin also instructed the foreign intelligence service to monitor poland's actions in the ukrainian direction. the polish authorities, nurturing their revanchist plans do not tell the truth to their people either, but the truth is that the ukrainian cannon fodder is clearly not enough for the west, so the entrance plans to launch new consumables of the poles

of lithuanians themselves and further down the list of everyone who does not mind. i will say one thing, this is a very dangerous game and the author of such plans should think about the consequences. the ministry of defense announced new retaliatory strikes targets in ukraine sea -based long-range weapons at facilities where terrorist acts against the russian federation were being prepared using strike unmanned aerial vehicles, the target of the strike was achieved , all designated facilities were hit. russian wars struck at the positions of ukrainian militants and in the direction of accopy this is what

else the west group said the results of the meeting of the board of directors, please good afternoon. today we decided to raise the key rate to 8.5% per annum. uh, there have been major changes in the economy in recent months. the first completion of the recovery phase of economic growth is the activation of consumer demand and the aggravation of the labor shortage, the second acceleration of current inflation rates, including in its stable components, the third weakening of the ruble, and the fourth increase in inflation expectations. this required the tightening of monetary credit policy. it aims to return inflation to four percent. next year, i will dwell in more detail on the arguments of today's decision. the first

price pressure intensifies monthly seasonally adjusted price growth rate continues to accelerate and most of the indicators, sustained inflation is above four percent annualized. the increase in inflationary pressure is primarily related to demand during the recovery period of the economy, demand was supported mainly by the public sector and demand from the state remains strong consumer demand was subdued until the end of last year. first of the current year. it strengthened, thanks in part to growth in wages and consumer confidence, and further accelerated in the second quarter due to a rapid credit expansion. when demand begins to steadily exceed the possibilities of increasing supply, this inevitably results in rising prices, because companies cannot instantly launch new production facilities and

find additional labor for them. there are striking facts that illustrate such situation, for example, a sharp increase in demand for domestic tourism services. it takes time for the russian hospitality industry to adjust to this surge in demand to build new hotels and create comfortable places to stay. in addition, carrier costs have risen markedly. but it is high demand that has allowed companies to pass them on to prices . another example where growing demand is facing restrictions can be cited. for rapid expansion of offers. this is the automotive market in our report on the regional economy. we detail we consider this situation. the increase in demand also affected the rapid recovery of imports, which, along with the decline in exports, contributed to the weakening of the ruble, the recent movement

of the exchange rate, which has not yet been fully transferred to prices, in addition to the direct pass-through of changes in the ruble exchange rate to prices, we are concerned about possible secondary effects, exchange rate dynamics affect the inflation expectations of the business population, they remain elevated and not legal. and in july. they have risen, we will closely monitor the further dynamics of inflation expectations and take it into account when making a decision. taking into account all the factors, we have raised the lower limit of the inflation forecast. inflation will be half a percentage point this year at five dashes of 6.5%. the ongoing monetary policy will limit the extent of inflation deviation from the target and will aim to bring it back to four percent by the end of next year. second about the economy , the recovery phase of economic growth is coming to an end; it was characterized by high quarterly growth rates. gdp they

are due to the fact that during the recovery free labor resources of production capacity are used, which were idle during the recession. now in addition to historical low unemployment. e, according to the monitoring of the enterprise , historically high capacity utilization is noted. it also indicates that the recovery growth is close to completion after that the economic growth rates tend to be on a balanced more moderate trajectory as a whole the economy has reached crisis levels, if we take into account the oil and gas sector, there are tight external sanctions. however, structural changes in the economy have created, e, significant heterogeneity across individual industries and regions in most of those that are mainly focused on domestic demand. we have not only reached the crisis level, but we are even starting to exceed it in another

part of the economy, which is export-oriented , the possibilities for a full recovery of production remain limited . industries is a shortage in the labor market. thus, according to our monitoring data, about three -quarters of the engineering companies for them declared a shortage of personnel , the unemployment rate again updated a historical low. some companies have been forced to hire workers in multiple shifts and overall the intensity of both labor and capacity has increased. problems of shortage of labor resources are especially acute, in those regions whose economy is growing at a fast pace, low geographical and less sectoral staff mobility exacerbates this problem, given the rapid recovery in demand, we

have raised our gdp growth forecast for this year to 1.5 to 2.5 percent. third , monetary conditions, while nominal interest rates, including the yield of the fz have increased since the previous meeting. in general , monetary conditions. were mitigated primarily due to non-price conditions, but this indicates the continued strong growth in lending in all market segments, especially retail, where mortgage growth rates are near the highs of recent years. the acceleration of lending to the population is associated with an increase in incomes and takes place against the backdrop of increased inflationary expectations. increased inflationary expectations are a significant factor in easing monetary conditions. based on these trends, the updated forecast, which takes into account the tightening of monetary credit policy. we have raised our estimate of credit growth

for the economy for this year to 13-17%, which is above the average for the last 5 years. uh, moving on to external conditions, uh, the growth rate of the world economy is slowing down, this is reflected in the prices of russian exports. gas. coal fertilizers are getting cheaper on the global market russian exports are thus under double pressure from both sanctions and the economic cycle, along with the growth of imports - this has led to the dynamics of the exchange rate that we have observed this year. eh, the dynamics of the ruble has recently attracted a lot of attention , so i will dwell on it in more detail, in our opinion, the main factor in the movement of the exchange rate in june-july is the consequences of the decline in exports that took place over the past few months with simultaneous e higher imports. typically,

depreciation leads to a reduction in demand for imports, but so far this has not happened. there are two reasons for this. the first contract lag here is that imports that come into the country are now bought at the exchange rate on the day the supply contract was concluded some time ago, the second and main reason is that with the expansion of domestic demand , the demand for imports also grows according to this logic, the weakening of the exchange rate is another confirmation that domestic demand has grown significantly. in addition to export import transactions on the rate was influenced by flows on the financial account. so last year , transfers of funds from the population to foreign accounts increased. many have wondered. how does this affect the dynamics of the course. here, the following comparison will be clear: last year, the exchange rate strengthened for most of the year, despite the fact that

individuals' transfers to foreign accounts were significant in the first half of this year, transfers decreased by about half compared to the second half of the previous year, and this year their volumes practically do not change from month to month the rest of the components of the financial accounts also mostly decreased compared to the second half of last year. this also applies to the operation in connection with the decisions of the government commission for the control of foreign investments, which were minimal in may-june. therefore, in general , the capital movement factor was not now a determining factor for the dynamics. course. the main thing is the dynamics of exports and imports there. now, about the risks on the forecast horizon, about inflationary whiskey has increased significantly , we attribute it to them. uh, possible gap widening between demand growth and supply opportunities.

in particular, due to the continued high growth rates of consumer lending and the further aggravation of the shortage of personnel, also pro-inflationary risks are a sharper pass-through of the depreciation of the ruble into prices and the long-term maintenance of inflationary expectations at an elevated level , the deterioration of external conditions remains a significant risk, including, possibly, a tightening of the sanctions regime disinfection risks, insignificant and in conclusion about the prospects of our policy, given the changes in our assessment of the economic situation , a higher key rate trajectory will be required so that we end the next year with inflation close to four. percent percent, the updated forecast takes into account the revision of our estimate of the neutral rate up by half a percentage point to one and a half to two and a half percent, in real or 5.5% 6.5% in nominal terms, the estimate of the neutral

rate is increased due to the growth of the premium risk for the russian market and an increase in the external neutral rate. according to the updated forecast average for the year the key rate for the current year increased to 7.9 dash 8.3%, the next more significantly to 8.5% per annum at the next meetings. we admit the possibility of a further increase in the key rate, the step of a possible increase will be determined by the topic. to what extent, e, the incoming data will influence our assessment of the development of the situation and the balance of risks to achieve the inflation target of close to four percent in 2024 . thank you for your attention, let's move on to your question. and please introduce your building, and nastya's first question first row.

thank you savelyeva anastasia interfax note in your release that the main pro-inflationary factor is the growing deviation of the economy from the trajectory of balanced growth of the supply and demand imbalance. and can this situation be described as close to overheating and, do we understand correctly that in the coming, well, in the future , you will pay special attention to this particular risk, and since this risk, apparently, is not short-term, does this mean that there will be one increase in today's rate? not enough and you start a cycle of rate hikes, and hmm and the second question. uh, some analysts point out that your step is 100 basis points. uh, it can be interpreted that, uh, in fact, it was necessary to raise the rate earlier, taking into account the lags, uh, in the transmission mechanism. do you share

this opinion or do you think that everything was done in due time? as for the risks of overheating? well, firstly, what is overheating , we don’t have quantitative definitions there. uh, in principle, this is hmm significant enough for a long-term deviation uh of economic growth from the potential, when indeed growth in demand e, collides with a constraint on the supply side and translates into a sustained acceleration of inflation, a and our policy is to ensure that this risk is not allowed. ah, mm, and in order for the economy to grow at a balanced pace. uh about hmm. uh about hmm what's going to happen next, we signaled that we 're accepting. e hmm the possibility of u raising the key rate at the next meetings. uh,

if you look at our key rate forecast, uh, the lower bound might the fact that it will be the current increase will be enough, but in our opinion it is more likely to increase the rate at the next meetings. e hmm and regarding today's decision. last time we talked about what uh hmm and signaled that a rate hike was likely, and we needed to get more information. uh, we see now that inflation is accelerating primarily in its stable components, inflation expectations have increased and the dynamics of the exchange rate, but i have already talked about all the factors that, uh, hmm we we took e into account in order to make the decision that we made, and i must

say that, by the way, the market also already reacted to this signal between our meetings. please, rita second row. tass agency uh, dear colleagues hmm such a question. please tell me how unanimous the decision to raise the rate by 100 basis points was and what other decisions were discussed and hmm you already said that the step is not predetermined, but nevertheless, is the same wide step again allowed here on the horizon next thank you we considered options for a 75 basis point and 100 basis point rate hike are indeed reasonable, because there have been proposals for more radical rate hikes, but also to

further minimize the need. rate hikes, well, taking into account the analysis of the situation of assessing all risk balances, we decided that a rate increase of 180 points would be a better solution. what step was going next will depend on how uh how the economy develops? what data will how the economy will react, including our monetary policy move. what to add i think this is the only thing to add? this is that such a significant part of the discussion was precisely on the tactics of a-a reaction to inflationary risks, there really sounded uh, proposals of such and more uh, such a strong and uh quick reaction , but in the end the collegial decision was that uh all the same uh, we should look at how

the situation is developing and what kind of data comes in terms of the intensity of inflation pressure, as well as the evolution of inflationary expectations. thank you for the next question online and anna cossack information portal moskovsky komsomolets in chita please good afternoon for transbaikalia, so for the border area the issue of foreign currencies, in particular yuan, is relevant. please tell me if these deposits are safe and what will happen to the interest on deposits? well, indeed, we are now seeing the emergence of, uh, some interest from our citizens in order to hmm keep funds uh in bank accounts in yuan, but so far hmm this practice is not is very common, as long as deposits in yuan make up somewhere around 1% of the total amount of funds of individuals in banks. uh,

as far as what currencies to keep. uh, we don’t give such recommendations for deposits, uh, and we don’t interfere in the market practices of banks. hmm, if they, if these practices carry any direct risks for consumers of the system as a whole, but, of course, you need to understand that love is a deposit in foreign currencies. whatever currency the deposit is in, it carries currency risk hmm and the difference between the purchase rate and the exchange rate sales can eat up a significant part of the income and e, the currency of any foreign exchange contribution, it looks more like an investment, where it is impossible to predict. uh, exchange rate fluctuations exchange rate risks. well, also when making a decision. of course, you need to remember that we continue to have currency restrictions and, uh, you cannot withdraw from the account. e hmm, from the deposit of the currency you will receive the currency. you

will receive your money in rubles, but at the bank's conversion rate for the corresponding currency. and if a person is aware of these risks, these restrictions are ready to accept them, then, as in the case of with any investment. this is his right, what is called colleagues, please, dmitry second row. dmitry butenko, in general , the initial assumption was that a range of the neutral rate, a, would be changed in the ncp. and at least in august. and so in september, here in the forecast, the range of the neutral rate has already been changed. and so the question is, uh, are these different procedures or one and yes there are some . are there any chances that you overestimate this range again in september, a and the numbers say 0.5 will be different. and if it's not, yes, there are these, most likely, this is wrong.

yes, there can be some representatives of some considerations and on this composition of this change, what is in it, country risks, what is in it, increase these other components of the internal external thank you and we have changed the forecast assessment of our range of the neutral rate, and in our main directions of monetary credit policy. we are going to leave a rating already. but this is because our last pivotal meeting before presenting the main directions of monetary credit policy and therefore. and today's forecast will be included in the first version the main directions of monetary credit policy, then it can be refined as the main directions of monetary policy are discussed and new data are received first of all. e hmm regarding the specific composition of the hmm factors that influenced this reassessment. i ask alexei borisovich, uh to avoid uh discrepancies, uh, c. e. v. v. main directions. uh,

the forecast is being refined, that is, the final version of the main directions is being prepared on the basis of the october forecast. here is the version that is already in the main document. yes, they are submitting e to the duma, and gustov’s first draft is based on the july forecast, this is to clarify e about what influenced e, traditionally. in the mainstream there will be, uh, an extended sidebar discussing how we think about neutral. the rate from the point in terms of changes in the direction of e, so to speak, the reduction of the neutral rate, and in our opinion. uh, how does it work, uh, a slight decrease in the potential growth rate of the economy in the direction of its growth is an increase in the risk premium, taking into account such a return of certainty, and also uh opinion that and the judgment by uh, world uh, external neutral rate.

it also probably moved up a bit compared to uh, where a was somewhere in 2020, when he was uh not estimating the neutral rate, uh, lowered u in terms of quantitative decomposition. i'll probably refrain from specific figures. well, i wanted to remind you once again that these are not observable indicators. this is an estimated range figure there. colleagues, please, rita margarita mordovina rbc i have a question about today's announced new mechanism, which provides for the sale of 288 a-a yuan rubles, and in yuan equivalent. here tell, please, with what this decision is connected. can it be evaluated? as some kind of support for the ruble and to what extent it is due to the fact that, according to the estimates of a number of analysts from the ministry of finance a-a, in the near future, a

will stop selling it to anya and fen b and the second question will concern the assessment of the central bank regarding the contribution to inflation of the weakening of the ruble. you noted that this effect has not yet been fully realized. maybe you have some prediction. yes, but how will the easing contribute to us inflation by the end of the summer? thank you at one time, when it was decided that part of the national welfare fund would be used for investment, they announced the mirroring of these expenses, uh, then due to a number of circumstances. this has been put on hold, so we believe that now is the time to return to this practice. uh, hmm, this is not intended to influence the ruble exchange rate. it really

aims to mirror our operations. and as for the fact that the ministry of finance will stop selling yuan, yes. according to the budget rule, but it will depend on uh, exports and imports. and, accordingly, how it will be assessed, yes, but basic income. yes, as far as we are concerned with the assessment of basic oil and gas revenues, but i ask alexei borisovich to comment further. yeah, uh, well, standard operation, regular operation under the budget rule. they were built according to a formula tied to the actual oil and gas revenues in relation to the oil and gas revenue bases, and in this sense they will change based on the oil and gas oil and gas market conditions, market, including oil and gas exports, but

in terms of why, how would the decision be made now. well question. this is due simply to the fact that e is in july. we summed up the results of the nwf investment operation for the first half of the year. as you know, how the budget statistics for e-e come, as if rarely in the middle of the month following e, the reporting one and, accordingly, now. we can determine the volume of the operation that we need to mirror, taking into account the fact that these operations for investing the funds of the nwf, and do not have such a less uniform in time character then react. well, it is more convenient to mirror them with the average volume of operations due to some significant period of time, we have chosen half a year, respectively, now we are starting these operations. yes, there is, with regard to the transfer of the weakening of the ruble into prices.

this transfer has already begun. it is usually implemented within a year, its main part within six months. uh, but different factors can affect the transfer process, a and um. here is one of the factors that i have already mentioned, that the prices remain the same for imports. uh, plus to that uh hmm in last year, when the ruble was strengthening in our country, and many companies considered this to be temporary in their business plans, and including contracts for imports, they laid down a more, uh, weak exchange rate than it was at that time, and therefore, uh, you need to measure, even more likely, the transfer of the weakening of the ruble is not actual, but the one that was expected by companies that concluded, among other things , import contracts, so this transfer may be a little more extended in time.

thank you next question online alexandra wald, e project life and finance please good afternoon. i have a question that worries so many retail investors after the release of decree 128, the bank of russia issued an explanation on march 28 and, based on this explanation, investors must again receive permission to make transactions with unfriendly residents. at the same time, when trading through foreign brokers. uh, in no way does an investor know who his counterparty is. due to this. here are some questions that come up. is it possible to make transactions through a friendly infrastructure, for example, kazakhstan assumes that all counterparties are friendly and what should people do with brokerage accounts, for example in the usa what should an investor do if a foreign broker demands to slowly close the account and investors will actually be forced to sell

their securities without any permission, because it will be impossible to get it within a very short period of time and what to do for people who do not live in russia and live. less than 183 days per year in russia, while being citizens of russia as a consequence, they are subject to currency legislation. does this ruling apply to them? after all, they do not have to report on their foreign accounts in any way. thank you yes, we know, uh , investors' concern about this issue is really there. uh, legal uncertainty in this matter and we will soon hmm carefully analyze the different options and offer a solution so that investors have this certainty. thank you. and dilya , please, the last row. good afternoon, ria novosti dilyar of the elven sun is given, and you already several times in detail.