[000:00:00;00] sell ​​your papers without any permission, because it will be impossible to get it within a very short period of time and what should people do who do not live in russia and live less than 183 days a year in russia, while being citizens of russia as a consequence they are subject to currency legislation. does this ruling apply to them? after all, they do not have to report on their foreign accounts in any way. thank you yes, we are aware of this issue is concerned with investors. indeed there is. uh, legal uncertainty in this matter and we will soon carefully analyze the different options and offer a solution so that investors have this certainty. thank you. and dilya , please, the last row. good afternoon. and ria novosti dilyar dream of a wedding, uh, elvira

sukhyzana. you have already spoken in detail several times, but you spoke about raising the rate, perhaps this year, but still this year. maybe it will be a double-digit number, considering the person would have such an option, and you raised the forecast for inflation, but only for the lower limit, then have narrowed this corridor. and how hmm high, in your opinion, are the risks that inflation this year by the end of the year may already exceed the upper limit of 6 1/2 percent. thanks our baseline forecast, uh, is five dash 6.5%, but we're talking about inflation risks . they're adding to the baseline, and uh, we'll update the forecasts if needed as, uh hmm, as new data comes out. eh what? it concerns the rate, but we do not predict the peaks of the rate. we give uh,

average rate either weather or balance years, here is our forecast. uh, the average key rate for the rest of the year is 8 1/2-9.3% thank you colleagues, please, sergey second row. bolotov sergey arguments and facts i have two questions, both related to the possible negative consequences of a 1% rate increase. head of the ministry of finance. he says that most often, uh, the state debt is bought by the russian bank, and they do it with the money that the central bank took, and it already estimates the cost of borrowing on the fts as too high, so, won’t the increase in the rate lead to the fact that, uh the ministry of finance will be forced to abandon the sale and will cut instead. uh, budget spending to raise taxes or give away part of his property for privatization and the second. e

question er, due to the fact that public spending, especially the state turnover of the order is not very sensitive to the rate increase. if some military plant has pledged to produce 200 tanks, then relatively speaking, it will release them in any case, no matter what the rate is. here is the civil sector. he, uh, can consume, or he can sit starving, and on how much do you rate? here is the persistence of the same phenomenon in demand that we have seen , it would not be easier to wait until people realize the pent-up demand and the rate does not increase, and then the revival would disappear by itself. thank you. well, as for the first question, after all, banks finance. uh, buying government securities. just like loans, the purchase of corporate bonds attracts deposits from citizens and businesses at the time of the placement of the ofz. uh, short-term current liquidity. she

moves from the banking system to the budget, but as government spending progresses. uh, this money is returned to banks in the form of new deposits of individuals and legal entities, and hmm in this situation, the bank may need short-term liquidity for this period between the placement and the federal law and uh, when the budget raises money and, accordingly, the implementation of budget spending, and at this moment. they do attract liquidity from the central bank, but still this does not change the holding essence, the meaningful source of financing for new e. ofs ultimately becomes those deposits that arise in the economy at the expense of e hmm, including through additional government spending, precisely through this mechanism of lending to the state hmm e state by banks. at the expense of the monetary mission, the central bank realizes the impact of the budget deficit on the money

supply. uh, the cost of borrowing for the government. hmm. so you asked if raising the key rate would cause the cost of borrowing for the government to rise, but the cost of borrowing for the government, as well as for other borrowers and other things is determined by the level of inflation inflation expectations, with high inflation with unanchored information expectations hmm and the key rate and interest rates will be high, but with consistent implementation of monetary policy, which is focused on price stability. the cost of financing, including for the state, will decrease , it is impossible to assume that if our key rate is low inflation will be high, that this will reduce rates in the economy exactly the opposite will happen exactly the opposite, because inflationary expectations will grow , inflationary premiums will grow, and so on, so our policy is precisely aimed at ensuring that, in

principle, the economy has moderate rates on long-term borrowing. yes alexey a good example, in fact is that the key rate does not directly affect the level of interest rates is, of course, the situation. uh, we have since september of this year september of this year. the key rate has remained unchanged at 7.5% until today. here are the ofz rates, they increased significantly with that the key rate remained unchanged , they rose to you because inflationary pressures really gradually parted and inflationary expectations remained elevated. level as for the second question, you are right that not all components of aggregate demand are equally sensitive to monetary policy and yes, uh, also right that there was an effect, uh, a certain effect, of pent-up demand in the first half of this year. hmm this year. yes, at the same time, our assessment

is that we believe that the recovery in consumer demand, as well as the expansion of investment demand, is largely sustainable. it is supported by rising incomes and strong credit growth, and it seems very unlikely that these trends will reverse on their own. uh high high employment. it supports income growth. yes, a and this increases the creditworthiness of individuals, banks are more willing to give them loans, because incomes have increased and there is a rapidly growing aggregate demand for it and it stimulates but activity of e-business business was also willing to take loans and banks are more willing to give these loans as well as willingness to take loans higher willingness to take loans. it is supported by hmm high inflationary expectations, when business people expect inflation to rise, of course they are more

willing to take out loans. uh, while maintaining government demand at an elevated level. e hmm if there is the same active growth of the private sector, it will more and more develop into a significant informational pressure, so we make those decisions on monetary policy, which are aimed at ensuring that this increased demand does not spill over. just in rising prices, and not in the growth of physical volumes of production, consumption , and so on. what does it really mean to improve people's well-being? thank you. and the next question is online from yekaterinburg . we have the current restriction is valid until september 9th. we haven't made a decision yet, but for

now. it can be said that there are no prerequisites for the removal of these restrictions. let me remind you that they were related to the fact that there are sanctions on the importation of personal foreign currencies by russian banks on the territory of the russian federation , thank you, and colleagues, your questions are fedor first row. fedornov hello ah, i wanted to ask, the central bank has said many times that the key factor in the depreciation of the ruble is the fall in exports with an increase in imports. e, however, there is still a fairly noticeable correlation between transactions for the sale of e, foreigners unfriendly assets in russia and to russian companies and the depreciation of the ruble. here i assessed the impact of these transactions and, uh, how much it

really means, thank you. yes, we certainly evaluate all factors and our assessment is that the main factor was changes in exports and imports. yes, the movement of capital has a certain impact on the course. well, well, if we talk about that specific factor that you mentioned, uh, hmm this the operation is associated with a permit issued by the government commission on sales transactions. e purchases in the relevant shares ah, on the contrary, they decreased and were minimized in my case, therefore this factor is now not a significant point of view for schoolchildren. uh, that movement of the exchange rate, which was observed in the last place. thank you. anna please.

i also have two questions. the first such from the field, informative at the macroeconomic school in st. petersburg, so i personally learned for myself that the head of the central bank has never did not exercise his rights. so say the last word. yes, when if the number of votes, well, to the board of directors, is equal this time, taking into account the spread of opinion. you also did not take advantage of this opportunity hypothetically. is this possible, in principle, and, uh, or do we always have such a good consensus , and uh, the second question. hmm but at the pmc, ions told us that the commission under the commission on strategic foreign investments has already decided that the buyers of the company, leaving all of them, will, uh, be forced to by 20%, e send to the exchange. that was the proposal of the central bank and, uh, the questions is whether we don't want to. wouldn't the central bank want to suggest that

a similar practice be extended to the baltics , since the companies are large, and this could support our stock market, and, among other things , redirect part of the means of consumption there to investments. thank you in regards. how the decision is made, but we usually do not disclose. uh, how we vote, anyway, the present moment, we try come to a consensus and what we discussed different options. uh, it doesn't mean that we somehow determined their voting process. we really had a substantive discussion. uh, hmm , different steps to raise the key rate, pros, cons, this. uh, that's really the deciding vote, there was no need to use the deciding vote. uh, there are comments on this alekseevich no piece of wood. as another

person who was in the room, indeed today there was a very broad consensus with support for the final recommendation of the department of credit policy to raise the rate to eight and a half percent. although during the discussion during this week, different opinions were expressed. and so, well, there 75, 11 is really a very fork in the road. there was a substantive discussion regarding the launch of the stock on the stock exchange and , in fact, the creation of a free float, in principle, any measures that will support this trend. we welcome we have a very low free fleet. uh, hmm, and the government, when the government commission makes such decisions, such a condition. mm moving forward with regard to m-m specific transaction. it's hard for me to comment now. but, in principle, we are in favor of having various

measures that stimulate hmm our companies, and more to raise funds in the capital market, because they are very often financed by its expansion of activity, new projects due to the debt load of loans. and we underutilize the potential of the capital market, in our opinion, it is significantly inaccessible. thank you, and the next online question from denis yalokhovsky, uh, compound interest project, please. good afternoon two question. e first when and to what extent the weakening of the ruble, at the end of june, the beginning of july, will be translated into the index, the dynamics of the consumer price index and how, in general, in principle, the central bank now evaluates, hmm, the pass-through effect , roughly speaking, how much and how long does it take for prices to increase when the ruble weakens , say, by 10% for good measure and the second question is about the digital ruble. uh, how does the central bank

assess the public reaction to this digital ruble project? are the central banks ready to admit that there is a significant amount of skepticism in society, epo about this initiative. if, uh, ready to admit what you plan to do about it, if you are not ready, then why are you not ready to bring it? thanks for the transfer effect. e, according to our estimates, with a weakening of the exchange rate by 10%, annual inflation increases by about 0, five tenths of 0.6% of a point, but i want to note right away that it is incorrect to multiply the actual change in the exchange rate over a certain period by this coefficient and consider it an addition to inflation. this is wrong. uh, first of all, uh, like i said, here it is today

she said that it is not the change in the exchange rate as such that is transferred to additional inflation, but its deviation from those expectations of exchange rate changes that were before the weakening of the ruble, and now last year, once again , the ruble has strongly strengthened, but many market participants expected for 23 years. this shows our polls that the ruble will be weaker than it was in the second half of the year 22. uh, then the speed in front of the nose, uh, is affected by import inventories. they were significant last year and were formed according to the courses. what a strong rate of the second half of the year, this does not reduce the overall scale of the transfer, but it stretches it in time and, thirdly, the course dynamics itself. she. eh, especially right now. e is strongly related to the dynamics of domestic demand, which affects imports, and through imports e on the exchange rate and to the extent that the rate of exchange rate changes is associated with this factor, the impact of the exchange rate on prices is part

of the general e pro-inflationary pressure from the expansion of demand, that is, it is part of the general demand inflation, with regard to e digital ruble, when we see the reaction, we naturally monitor how, uh, the population of market participants react to the proposal of this innovation. e. yes, there are some skepticism, but we have seen such skepticism with almost any innovation in the financial sector. markets i remember the world map. how many questions, er, criticisms of skepticism and on the system of fast payments, by the way, which are now used by almost half of our population by the payment cards themselves, when they appeared, there was also some skepticism. it is natural, what can be done? uh, hmm more clarification. well, then people. eh, let's put it to the test. no one

is going to force anyone into the digital ruble. this is completely voluntary use. this is an additional opportunity for people. their choice of want to use want not to use, but we expect that it will really be more convenient cheaper, uh, and for people for business, and they will start using it. this is another new opportunity. colleagues, please, grigory first row hello colleagues grigory bazhenov, author of the blog of popular economics of economics, i have two questions the first question is related to what you yourself noted. e that the dynamics associated with demand is largely due, just the same dynamics of government spending and in general. here we can talk about a certain tension. yes, in part. that's just balancing between supply and demand. in any case, within the framework of some short-term period before entering the medium-term trajectory in connection with this question. er, does the central bank think the risks of fiscal dominance are getting higher? this is the first moment the second moment, it

concerns the exchange rate already partially clarified this issue in the framework of the previous one. eh, but there's one more thing. you yourself talked about secondary effects as a result. and just the weakening of the exchange rate, that it will e affect inflationary expectations. and so, if you're talking about the pass-through effect, uh , directly yes, when we say that there is relative to expectations, and a change in course is a trance. leads to inflation. how do you think, how the change in exchange rates, in turn , translates into changes in inflation expectations, and how this, in general, flows into further on the dynamics of inflation in general. public spending public demand, especially last year, had a significant impact, then private demand fell, and in fact the state demand replaced it. now we see that government demand remains at an elevated level, while private demand is growing. hmm, it has

already grown almost to the level of the end of the 21st century and continues to grow. and of course, if the proposal does not keep up with this. this results in may result in inflation. and, if government demand will stay on elevated levels so that such a gap in supply and demand does not lead to an acceleration of inflation. we are already downloading a monetary credit policy that will say and on private credit on private demand, as far as fiscal dominance is concerned, probably such a budgetary fiscal dominance. uh, it's weird where there's a lot of public debt, and there it's uh, as deliveries grow, the deficit expands, the national debt expands, a and hmm, and at the same time , rates rise to reduce, including space for private credit. uh the state has to spend more and more money to service this

public debt. to do this, the deficit is expanding even more. and here is such a spiral, but fortunately we are not in this situation, because our public debt is low, and we know the government's intentions to gradually consolidate the budget. there is something to add that uh the risk of budgetary dominance must always uh be kept in mind by the authorities in long-term budget planning. with regard to secondary effects, there really is an interaction here, as you rightly said one to the other and the course dynamics. this is not the only significant factor that influences inflation expectations. well, a significant factor there can influence inflation expectations. uh, goods are markers of such everyday demand, when they grow, when they grow, uh, valuable, well, and other factors. yes.

uh, well, of course, inflation expectations. they just create dangerous secondary effects when people expect. er, they can expect prices to rise for a wide range of commodities, and these inflationary expectations lead to people are trying to consume more quickly to spend on consumption, because they are afraid of rising prices, and this can just aggravate. this gap between supply and demand and influencing inflation is what worries us. and why are we making those monetary policy decisions, uh, that are designed to hmm limit such deviation of inflation from the target of relatively low predicted inflation? thank you the next question from vologda from alexei tretyakov newspaper red north

please alex good afternoon channels information that some citizens sought to buy granulated sugar with more quantity, however. in the case turned out to be isolated and some of ours are not in stores today, however. please tell me what to do in this information content for ordinary people who, in general, are worried about their savings. thank you. yes. thank you. you mentioned the prices for granulated sugar, but they are, in principle, very volatile, if you look at the dynamics over the years. they went down so much last year last march they went up, or rather, when we have there was a rush demand last march, then during the year they decreased noticeably and in recent months they have been growing, but sugar is still lower than, for example, in june last year,

but i understand that your questions are still not so much about sakhara, but about purchases for the future. uh, like when people buy for the future, uh, fear of rising prices and yes, this sometimes happens in response to the fact that we see people rising prices for the ongoing price increase and uh, in fact, this is what we call increased inflationary expectations. e. hmm remember 2015 and the start of the pandemic. oh, even last year. uh, people were stockpiling large amounts of medical medical masks, remember both buckwheat and household appliances hmm and then the prices of these goods went down a lot. hmm and in general, what can you say with a low level of inflation? for the further growth of already soaring prices, there is no

our, uh, monetary policy. it is precisely aimed at maintaining the general price level at the target level. we cannot influence the prices of individual goods or services at any given time, but these prices are affected by supply demand in specific product markets, but if we hmm have a policy we have a policy to maintain overall price stability. we strive to ensure that even with short-term fluctuations in individual goods e, there will be no unpredictable rise in prices for the total consumer basket. e, the depreciation of the purchasing power of income, e and e and savings of citizens. and this is what our policy is aimed at. thank you elena please, the penultimate row elena fabrichnaya

rapper agency. here you have given examples on demand. yes, that domestic tourism supported him strongly about buying a car, but you admit that these are still temporary factors that are associated with summer, that is, it cannot be further fading on the other side. eh, analysts believe that, nevertheless, the weakening of the ruble became a key factor for you, which forced you to increase the rate by a stone, and not 50, as the market assumed, the consensus all converged towards it, and as for the weakening of the ruble. uh, continues to monitor how exporters sell revenue. there is an opinion that they still hold back the sale, accumulating it in foreign accounts. here's how you can comment on it, and by the first of august the president instructed, and to submit proposals for currency regulation. what changes can be? here you can tell something will offer. i'll start with the weakening of the ruble. this is indeed a significant factor, but not a key

factor, in our opinion, a key factor for us. now it is m-m excess of demand over the possibilities of expanding supply. uh, and this is related to the restrictions on the side proposals, which i have already mentioned, and including with a lack of manpower, but at the same time hmm uh regarding temporary factors. uh, you see, when there is, uh, a broad cent rise across a wide range of goods, some goods and services may rise more or less in those sectors as well. uh, just a hmm increased demand. uh, the fact that demand is increased is demonstrated by the fact that a-a costs or a lack of supply are easily transferred with a fairly large ease in m-m to prices, probably everything, if

alexey borisovich would you like to comment here, please, once again , i repeat that the decision on monetary policy is always based on a holistic view of the forecast, and not on individual factors. yes, and changes in the forecast for inflation. yes, it is also influenced by the course, but in combination with all other incoming information. and here. i would like to revisit what e was said in the a in the chair's statement. a significant part of the dynamics of the exchange rate reflects the dynamics of imports, the growth of imports, and the growth of imports in its turn is a function of domestic demand, and, in principle, only well, only it, if we do not have physical restrictions on imports. and if so, then in fact the dynamics of the course. we are given quite a lot of information

about the dynamics of demand, and this is very important to take into account. that is, it is clear that the exchange rate is not only about this, he is talking about what is happening on the export side and with what is happening in terms of capital operations, but in the part in which the dynamics of the exchange rate is explained by the dynamics imports are something that is a consequence of demand and reacts precisely on this. as for the sale of proceeds by exporters. we continue to monitor this. uh, there are several factors that affect the volume of sales, uh. with partners, the volume of sales by exporters in the foreign exchange market. this is that m-m part of the export proceeds was converted into rubles, and therefore it is the importers who buy the currency on the market. and then, respectively, in rubles it pays for our exports of e and a in terms of e of the currency part of the export earnings

that go to our country, the share does not decreased our export volumes decreased. e, we also analyze the extent to which exporters directly leave funds abroad in their accounts. here, according to our data, these are small funds within one percent of this export earnings. as regards issues, er, related to currency regulation with a proposal for their changes. you remember that last year we went through two stages of changing the will of disabled restrictions. in the beginning , very strong currency restrictions were introduced. then they gradually uh, liberalized, but, nevertheless, a large volume has now been accumulated. e this kind of restrictions are different with the exception of the system of adoption, decisions of exceptions. and of course, it is quite difficult for business to navigate this. today , questions were asked, you can’t do something. but we