and with all the ensuing consequences, and therefore, from october 1, we decided to establish macro-production premiums , significantly tighten macroproduction premiums , and establish macropotential premiums at an prohibitive level, for the most risky mortgage loans. eh, hmm, first of all, in the market of housing under construction, to take into account the final prices that exist in the primary market. and hmm we expect that from this the lending structure will improve hmm and there will be more balanced mortgage growth rates loans corresponding to the growth rates, uh, and income and not created do not create risks of bubbles. here we welcome e. hmm government decision to slightly tighten the requirements for preferential programs. uh, and

we will look at increasing the requirements for initial wear from fifteen to twenty percent together with macropodoxal allowances, from which we expect a much greater effect. how long will this work? eh, if necessary, we will be ready to further tighten macropotential allowances. thank you yes, the second question was about gdp about lowering the upper limit alexey borisovich forecast for the next year, and on the topic of simply gdp, it’s really been revised to 0.5% from 0.5-2.5. the revision is connected with two factors. the first is a more restrained growth of domestic demand in the context of a more severe road accident so that the economy returns to the trajectory of balanced inflation growth at its target of four percent, and second. uh, the components are that we have somewhat uh revised down the growth rate

of exports for the next year in physical volumes. well, taking into account, again, emerging data and emerging trends. this also subtracts a little from the projected growth for next year compared to the previous forecast. thank you next question online from abakan yulia amizonova internet portal abakan.ru, please hello and now you have raised the key rate once again. will the expected effect of this measure really cover up the negative consequences for the economy, in particular the unavailability of loans for individuals and businesses? thanks first m uh, what about uh loans? eh, i wouldn’t say they are unavailable loan growth rates show that they are quite high. and ours, uh, goes very high.

we are observing very high rates of growth in loans, as well as for individuals, as unsecured consumer loans, mortgages and corporate loans, and for us it is very important that the demand that has recovered does not simply turn into growth , inflation and an increase prices for goods and services that our population consumes, but because hmm, otherwise we will not have economic growth, but rather an increase in inflation, and therefore it is very important in a timely manner. on make a decision here so that the economy grows at a balanced rate and we have clarified the forecasts, but we see that throughout the entire forecast period our economy will have favorable rates

of economic growth. uh, we are waiting for uh effects specifically related to preventing inflation from accelerating and bringing inflation to our goal of uh, 4%, which is very important for the uh population to save buyers on the ability of their income to their uh, savings alekseevich well, uh, if you look at our forecast again, then yes slowdown occurs. there is simply lending compared to 223 for 22-23. it was indeed such a very anomalous period in many ways. especially in the twenty-second, of course, when there was a big restructuring of the financial system, sources of financing, and the corporate sector and, obviously, at this pace, at the pace, uh, that we observed in the twenty-second twenty-third year. uh, in the long term, no matter how the economy

remains at the rate of credit growth, but if you look at the forecast next year, the general requirements of the banking system for the economy, we expect that they will grow by 7 dash 12%, which is higher than the growth rate of this inflation for the next year, that is, in real terms. uh, credit to the economy will continue to increase, well, just at a more moderate pace than in the twenty-second and twenty- third year. thank you colleagues, please, tatyana tatyana voronova frank copper for one very correctly noted that the government has slightly tightened the approach to preferential mortgages, which and today we were surprised to read a lot in release. a. but, to be honest, analysts write that the october measures of the central bank also have a limited effect on the mortgage market. and in connection with this question, will this market require the quantitative limitation that you previously allowed? can he

avoid them and a short second question. eh, maybe you can still say something about the restriction on the withdrawal of rubles. i have already said about the second question, but i will repeat it again, but we are in my opinion. this measure will not work, it will not be effective. what? regarding measures in the field of mortgage lending, we will still tighten macroproduction measures quite seriously. we will see how they work and, if necessary, we will tighten them further, but, unfortunately, we do not yet have the opportunity to apply quantitative limits. we have this opportunity under the law for unsecured consumer mortgage lending. no , we think, in principle, it would be useful to have two sets of peace and rice premiums and such quantitative restrictions work somewhat differently for risky mortgages.

i think it was useful, but we don’t have that option yet. no, we can only hmm tighten the premiums associated with the initial share. it is also possible with the level of debt load of the borrower. thanks for the next question online. uh, dmitry butyrin was not able to be present in the hall today, as usual from the merchant he sent and to us online he is next and based on the comments of the central bank in the last six months, economic activity is higher than that which would ensure sustainable growth on the other hand. based on the same logic, it is not enough to to ensure the volume of supply adequate to the volume of domestic demand in the economy, in the opinion of the central bank, will this paradoxical situation be exhausted within six months.

and in what way will it be exhausted by a decrease in business activity or stabilization of demand? it must be taken into account that the production capabilities of the economy change over time much more slowly than hmm, a change occurs , and fluctuations in the economic nature of demand occur and therefore, if demand outstrips supply, and this is exactly our case, uh, then adjustment to the economy and returning it to a state of balanced sustainable growth, and the indicator of this is precisely uh, low inflation, which corresponds to the goal , should come through pain and restrained growth rates of demand, while i emphasize that overall business activity does not have to decline. it will grow at a more moderate pace for some time. uh, since the current growth rate exceeds demand from supply possibilities. um, it's impossible without

further accelerating inflation, and we will ultimately. here we are predicting the end forecast period, that the economy will grow at exactly these balanced growth rates, which we estimate to be one and a half to two two and a half percent, but the reaction of monetary policy to the overheating of the economy was late. we see this and, based on the experience of other countries , reductions may indeed be required. e business activity, even recession, so it is necessary to respond to inflation risks in a timely manner. um, there are risks of overheating and i would like to emphasize once again that our forecast for 24 assumes positive gdp growth rates. thank you colleagues elena fabrichnaya please elena factory agency reuters please tell me the weakening of the ruble exchange rate. what percentage is in

the inflation forecast for this year? so you answer the second question. what rate decisions did the board of directors consider today? well, according to our estimates, a 10% depreciation of the exchange rate contributes to inflation by 0.5 0.6%, uh, the rate of transfer. and the scale of this transfer. they of course depend on many factors. including how significant the weakening of rates occurs. uh, for us the transfer acceleration factor now is just um uh exceeding hmm uh, too rapid growth in domestic demand. this also creates the preconditions for an accelerated transfer of the weakening of exchange rates. regarding the decision on the bet today we discussed three options to keep the bet , look at all the lags, but we clarified it. we

specially clarified the forecast in an extraordinary way today at a non-core meeting, because there have been serious changes in our point of view. uh, the dynamics of the exchange rate and the pace of simply lending, which are in many ways higher than what we never predicted from external conditions and this shows that we need a higher trajectory of the key rate in order to achieve inflation, this forecast will show that we need a higher trajectory of the key rate in order to achieve inflation of 4% by the end of next year, so the second option, which here we are the second and third - this rate increase was considered in different steps and 12% and higher. well, after discussing all the pros and cons, we came to a consensus opinion. increase the rate by 1% point. thank you next online question from victoria shirgina

loin finance, please, vika yes, hello. thank you for the opportunity to ask a question. you say that you considered the option of either maintaining the rate or increasing it by 1%, while you say that it is necessary to increase the attractiveness of ruble savings in order to support the ruble exchange rate. uh, the current rate level is 13%. is it, in your opinion, attractive enough for the population to switch to saving in rubles? we will look at this situation depending on how inflation expectations develop, because taking people's decision to save or spend. uh, they compare rates with their inflation expectations. that’s why inflation expectations are so important to us. uh, we, uh, so far , by the way, we have data on inflation expectations for august. yes, we will look at what will happen in september, and we will see from

the data of the coming week how it changes. hmmm, the population's preferences for savings, but there are already some signs that some of the funds are flowing from current accounts to fixed-term accounts, which are considered more savings. these are some indicators that the decision on key rate uh, it works, ah, but we 'll have to make sure how much is enough. those decisions in order to, uh, appropriately influence the attractiveness of ruble savings, including alexey borisovich well, the key rate is very important, but no less important is, uh, how it is ultimately translated into deposit lending rates for banks . well, there are also inserts of other segments of the financial market, and in this sense. uh, a very important part of today's communication is that we indicate

that we believe that the rate at the current level will have to be maintained for a long period of time until at least until we see a reduction in the current rate of price growth and a reduction in inflation expectations, and we expect that this will strengthen the transmission of rates in the key rate of deposit products and credit rates. colleagues, please, sergey first row sergey boltov arguments and facts in continuation of the previous question , could you say a little more in detail why banks react so sluggishly to the energetic actions of the central bank on due to the increase in the cost of money, in july the maximum rate on deposits increased by only 2%. now, doesn’t this behavior of banks ultimately reduce the effectiveness of the central bank’s policy? and the second question about mortgages, if there is an understanding that during the period of high

rates of successive easing of the dc, then the time has not come for a mortgage with a floating rate. so, how do you feel about this idea? how quickly the decision on the key rate is translated into rates on deposits and loans. this almost always happens with varnish. these lags are larger if there are those whose expectations alexey borisovich said were a very short period. we need to wait. um, the central bank will reduce the key rate; there is no need to raise deposit rates. well, because there is 14 22 years of experience when we raised the rate due to the risk of financial stability, when they left, we began to reduce the rate, so we are trying, um, just to emphasize that now the rate increase was not due to these risks with inflationary ones, so they can be for a long time. and this should really strengthen and speed up. eh,

hmm this transformation. it must be said that the rates are still price conditions. we are saying that they were partially reflected, but they are reflected by the banks. and they raise deposit rates in the wrong volumes right away, just like the central bank raised the key rate. but this is happening and that’s why we see, including the flow of hmm funds from current accounts to urgent, credit rates. they're usually like uh, a little later they react and here we must take into account that uh hmm a significant part is less than half, nevertheless a significant part, for example , of the corporate portfolio hmm uh already at floating rates, and there hmm the translation into lending rates happens uh, much faster. mmm, if the company is ready to choose credit lines for these floating

inserts at the highest levels and just moving on to floating inserts. i believe that floating rates for loans for the population are not useful; floating rates can be for loans for enterprises, where even maybe not for micro-enterprises. by the way , regarding micro-enterprises, we also think that it may be necessary to limit the risks of floating by some percentage. uh, because there must be professional professional employees who can assess interest rate risks. you know, uh, the rates on floating loans, on floating loans, in places, seem to be favorable at the time you take out the loan, because usually, hmm, on floating inserts. uh, the rate is lower than the flat rate, but people should consider that the rate may change in both directions and increase, and in the end the loan may turn out to be more expensive, and therefore, uh hmm, we saw what problems floating rates created in

the twentieth year, special decisions were raised on subsidies. and on the restructuring of such loans, therefore we believe that for the population and for mortgages. eh, there should be these floating rates. well, very very very carefully and we saw, by the way, the interest of um banks in offering uh, loans at floating rates. it's when the rate is at a very low level and uh, the banks evaluate, that in the future the probability of an increase is much greater than a decrease. yes, and it is clear that this will redistribute benefits from citizens towards the bank. hmm, so here we would like to talk about floating rates for citizens. they are welcome, in my opinion, yes, yeah, thank you, and the next question is online, and from anton golitsyn, kommersant newspaper in yaroslavl , please hello, we have an industrially developed region and many enterprises are engaged in an import substitution program. naturally with credit funds. an increase

in the key rate will lead to an increase in cost borrowed money. for some reason you are jeopardizing the implementation of a number of these plans. well, and as a consequence of a decrease in supply in various markets. what could lead to another round of inflation? eh, how are you going to fight this and is it more illogical , on the contrary, to reduce the key rate and create more comfortable conditions for economic development through lending? reducing the key rate in conditions where inflation is high above the target and growing will not lead to a decrease in the cost of loans, because banks issue loans, and so that according to rates that do not imply its depreciation due to inflation. e, therefore, this will not lead to the availability of loans, if reducing the key rate when inflation rises will simply lead to an additional increase in inflation,

nothing else will be achieved for comfortable development of the domestic economy, it is really desirable to have moderate interest rates again on the basis of a decrease in inflation, and a and. uh, here's the cost of the loan. yes , regarding deposits, as we have already said, it largely depends on the expectations of citizens and businesses, future inflation, they may be moderate in places. just these expectations. uh, if businesses, citizens, banks have confidence that inflation will be low. and now we see, uh, the main limitation on uh, the development of production expansion. our polls show this. these are labor resources restrictions on labor resources. imagine if an enterprise receives a cheap loan and even buys additional equipment, then the question

is where will it get additional workers to work on this equipment and expand production only in these conditions, luring hmm from other enterprises or from other industries. well then, the output of these enterprises in the industry will decrease, uh, and the overall effect on the economy will be, uh, a near-zero change in economic growth, and what will happen is that inflation will accelerate. why because by luring each other 's employees, enterprises will increase wages, but since overall output in the economy does not grow hmm, then in the end this is three wages. it will simply translate into rising prices and this is probably not so obvious at the micro level, when every enterprise looks at the possibilities of expanding its business, but this works at the macro level and the limitation at the macro level is not

money, but physical restrictions on the available factors. e production. so, our task is precisely to ensure that, hmm , rates are moderated on the basis of, hmm, a reduction in inflation and , uh, the growth of it does not pose a threat to price stability if it cannot be supported by a corresponding increase in production. thank you colleagues, please, dilya, last row, penultimate. thank you dilyar sunnylberia news rhetoric today and your personal territory, and the press release on the meeting was quite harsh and you also increased the forecast for the rate, finally, does this mean that this year we will still see each other at the last two

subsequent meetings, and there will be a further increase in rates and there are no prerequisites for stabilization at all, not for easing the policy, not until the end of this year, not at the beginning, but next year. if you still expect that you will reach the target level for inflation it will most likely be by the end of next year. thank you we are giving a forecast of the average annual trajectory of the key rate, including the rate that will develop from the moment of our meeting until the end of the year. and now, if you look at this forecast, it assumes both maintaining the current rate and the possibility of increasing it. everything will depend on the data that we receive on how the economy, inflation, inflation expectations , e, reacts to our decisions. thank you, thank you. maybe i’ll repeat once again that

easing monetary policy will be possible only as the current price growth steadily declines and inflation expectations fall commensurately with it. a the next question is online and from fedor ivanov investment futures, please, fedor hello a fedor ivanov investment futures. uh, today it was said several times that we are facing a period of tight monetary credit conditions in the economy , i wonder if there are any plans to support large or not only large companies that have a very high debt load. this is the first question, and the second question is about unemployment. now it is at a historical minimum and naturally leads, more precisely, to one of the inflationary factors - an increase in wages. now, does the central bank have some kind of target level by which it can determine that the risk of unemployment

has been passed or such goals are not being set now. thank you regarding the support of large enterprises, but the government has a large circle, a large volume of programs to support enterprises, including through, uh, subsidized interest rates, and preferential lending. uh, within these programs. they, apparently, are acting in order to support those areas that the government considers to be strategic priorities. and i once again emphasized that our rate decisions are aimed at reducing inflation, and this will ultimately lead to more moderate interest rates on loans, primarily for long-term loans, which are needed for our business. what about companies that have accumulated

high debt? you understand by analogy with citizens. here we are as citizens, which 8. percent of income is spent on uh servicing loans. yes, this cannot be cured by a new increase in the debt load. hmm, new loans, if the debt load is very large, then restructuring is needed together with the creditors. e of these loans. uh, there are practices when creditors become owners and so on. hmm uh, here, but in addition to the infatuation of debt. uh, the situation for an enterprise that has already been refinanced, of course, no matter what the rate, you understand, these are already problems that need to be treated. uh, other methods that concerns unemployment. we do not have a target unemployment rate, but certainly the situation on the labor market is one of the most important factors, especially now, that we take into account when making decisions. e at the key rate. uh, and

we see that labor demand is driving it now. do you know how much respect economists enjoy? uh, with such indicators, show them indicators or definitions, such as equilibrium employment. there, full employment is usually a qualitative judgment, because it is quite difficult to measure it. this is the unemployment rate that corresponds to to the fact that inflation is growing at the target level, and here it is hmm and in different countries this may be a different level, but now our situation is when demand in the labor market exceeds supply. this, of course, must be taken into account. colleagues, please, olga third row olga meladze about finances, i have a question from the people: the inflation rate is 5.5%, but people are worried that prices in the store are rising by about 15 percent and they

comment all the time. eh, some posts about the inflation rate, that inflation and prices in stores live different lives. this is absolutely not things connected with each other. this concerns. in fact, not only in russia this is a phenomenon all over the world, for example, when inflation in turkey is 100%. everything in the world goes up in price there by 3-4 times, that is, not by 100%, but by 300-400%. and now, probably, the question is that you talked to us about this, what should we do with this, how should we evaluate this information, inflation, again percent this means that the goods will increase by 15, that is, how in general should we meet this information, and how to digest it and what should the population do with it? indeed, we talked to the population about inflation expectations - this is how much the population expects inflation, but also the observed inflation , so we ask the population and look at how the population now assesses the level

of inflation. and systematically, this, of course, is higher than the inflation that our mouth estimates. and this really happens in many countries. hmm, but now inflation expectations have grown greatly. and this is also for and we see inflation has also increased greatly. uh, here, uh, of course, the population is reacting to rising prices for certain hmm, like goods. you know, this is the housing utilities on the course reacts to gasoline essential goods , and uh, so we see inflation may differ significantly. these are mainly essential goods. a wide range of goods, which rosstat considers, where there may be irregular purchases. yes, but they are also included in the population's expenses. uh, there will only be one reduction here. uh, the overall rate of inflation is the overall rate of price growth and

the observed inflation will decrease. but we, you know, i talk about this too. every time we so that hmm people can calculate their own inflation. everyone has their own consumer basket, personal inflation. we have a calculator on the website, you can see how the prices have increased. and the prices for these goods, right? in short, to develop this thought only in zahn about the fact that this problem is less acute in countries where inflation is lower, what is this due to, and is due to the fact that it is clear that prices for different goods and services are growing at different rates . well, in a specific period of time, well, you and i, like other people, are, uh, structured in such a way that we, of course, pay more attention to those prices that have risen the most and form our assessment of inflation based on what we remember most. over the last 12 months or the last six months, and the higher the uh?