[000:00:00;00] possible supply technologies, they seem to be playing along in south korea than to the forces that do not want to completely quarrel with russia, relations will worsen, i repeat, but of all the allies of the united states, and south korea is a close and sincere ally, there are just few, where will you see such a low level anti-russian sentiments, yes, andrei nikolaevich and one more question at the conclusion of our conversation. you may have said a possible union between south korea , japan and america, respectively - this is a bloc approach, but so far everything is moving towards this. a what do you think, how likely is it that such a union will be created in the near future? i think it’s small. but the de-factor of the actual union. well, i would say that it even already exists somewhere now. for the foreseeable. the future will be strengthened formally. it’s just very difficult because of the traditional mutual, so to speak, well, not love between japan and south korea, we have this

mutual. so to speak, uh, not mutual non-recognition in russia tends to be underestimated. it is very deep; despite the similarity of countries and very strong ties, mutual distrust is very far. because of this, it is difficult to create some kind of formal union like an asian nato, although i would not rule out such a turn, but this is not tomorrow, not the day after tomorrow, but in fact it exists much closer to that, thank you very much. well, let's see how events develop. and thank you again

and all the best. we will take on this matter with pleasure. it will be an honest detective. we watch educational programs and documentaries to explore the world

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that i will call myself. download the sbp application, pay with one touch and receive 3% cashback in lenta the bank of russia today once again raised the discount rate. now it is 13 percent per annum, the official reason for the strengthening of inflationary trends in our economies. however, this approach has the potential to combat inflation. there are side effects. to put it mildly , about this. today we spoke with head of the analysis and forecasting of macroeconomic processes of the center for macroeconomic analysis and short-term forecasting dmitry belousov. hello dmitry rymovich. thank you for finding the time for us, ah, we’ve been meaning to talk to you for a long time. discuss a lot of questions, but today is

a very good occasion. uh, it's the central bank meeting again. the central bank is raising the rate, although not as much as the previous one, 13 percent, now it’s clear that this is a separate conversation from the bank of russia’s policy but uh, i'd like to talk. uh, in the context of this, firstly, the main questions are probably the exchange rate of the ruble , which does or does not affect economic growth, you had such a study a few months ago, in my opinion, but for now i ’ll refer to your latest data from the center for macroeconomic analysis and short-term forecasting on inflation dynamics from august 22 to september 11. well, the latest, yes, the latest research. and here you state the fact that inflation continues to accelerate, unfortunately. and bring it here certain numbers. a. well, i wanted you to comment first. uh, this situation is a study, because as i understand it, you prepared it, just uh, which was

a surprise for you, we didn’t have a fall this year, formally speaking, but we have uh, the usual belief of those who have more broadcasts. they say that there is nothing there. the doctor has gone into overdrive, but we will have our favorite exhibition. in fact, every time this is fortune telling for almost some kind of harvest , that’s all, this is generally a high role person products that do not respect predictable services, uh, which will drive us into the corridor and now for a whole series of different stories. uh, we have uh hmm none. and there was no september differentiation for a single week, my minus is leaving. this is, in general, such an extremely rare story . the second point is that we have three such

unpleasant surprises; the second thing is that we do not have it to the fullest extent. e from the work of a legend who fences us off from the foreign market. it looks like gasoline and diesel played a role among other factors. there's another plus shutdown of the refinery for scheduled repairs at the moment. e with the same planned demand. it is not a product of the summer axis, it is beyond human understanding. what are they saying and what does it look like the grain is starting to increase? oh, it’s similar that we can’t cut off grain export parity from the center in this situation. the weakening of the ruble, but, naturally, has a very strong impact on prices, because our prices for wardrobe items have gone up, which have not increased for a long time. and we are starting to have an unpleasant payday for uh, prices

for bread in general. given that we have there was a harvest recently, this shouldn’t happen. uh, here, uh, we continue to reflect from the types of household appliances, there and so on. here, uh, an additional point is related to the fact that , due to our well-known history, we have sanctions, but our product order remains the main only supplier, if we could previously put pressure on the chinese. with the fact that if you don’t make friends, we will find each other’s proposals. now in our volumes the head manufacturer is, of course, limited. that's how the situation works. of course, this is the story is very difficult, because it has little effect on the ruble exchange rate. eh, here, and here is the motivation for investment in syria. here we are now, apparently we will be even beyond these five so in

the previous inflation forecast at the upper limit. apparently it will be higher in inflation this year. but we may not reach the two that we expected based on growth. this is the problem that they received my two this year and we will receive and they regret further in the last two. uh, for the last two months we have been experiencing inhibition of literally the elements, certainly. good and playlisted, similar to this one in terms of index activity, but this is uh in the purchase of investment goods, uh in russia and the production of investment goods, for which there are short-term statistics and turnover on the main uh components, except for wires, except for non-food, no one food goods, uh, and on uh, and the trip in this pleasure to delegate. this is

a really big achievement. it is stabilizing. in these conditions, they cut it off, well, for private investment. but it turns out that some kind of vicious circle today the central bank says that the reason for raising the rate is increased inflation expectations. how can they not strengthen if the ruble weakens? and if such an unhealthy situation is created, i wouldn’t be afraid to say this word on the foreign exchange market. and of course , inflation expectations will increase so that people don’t look at the dollar exchange rate. and no matter how some deputies say that people are not interested in the dollar exchange rate, they are, of course, not interested in it in itself, but people go to stores and you see that as soon as the exchange rate prices rise and rise. well, with a lag, of course, but how to break this chain

of relationship. what needs to be done to avoid this, uh, rate hike due to inflationary expectations, and at the same time you yourself just said that in reality. the rate is slightly affected by the rise in inserts; there are , of course, harsher comments and criticism of the central bank. ah, but we’re not even talking about that now, we’re talking about economic dependencies. what do you think should be done in the course, there are other tools, you need to understand that we introduced the tools, as there were several waves. uh, a story from space yes, i did last year, when we had the first shock after the introduction of sanctions in the first months. yes, we have a course in the river and then we, uh, not only at the expense of uh rates, some kind of uh, we, uh, the main actions were the introduction of elements

of special control and so on. so after that, uh, our exchange rate began, on the contrary, the ruble began a period. connected with the restructuring and restructuring of logistics but, but we responded to this by weakening the elements of capital control. we tried to do everything so that the exchange rate does not go into overstrengthening, and that’s all. he fortified himself there. this kept inflation down thanks to this pleasure last year to go there quite normally, of course, an essential indicator for the population for enterprises, of course, by deputies. but uh, yes, uh, that means, uh, and in these conditions. we still live in a situation where we, uh, specially, so to speak, valves so that we don’t

over-attach the food. plus, of course there was logic, because we needed to build a new production chain. there's a fleet there famous russian capital associated with the removal of part of production. there in a neutral unit and so that the males could not work in the same turkey further. such a husband would insert sanctioned goods there and return the money to us for finished products. yes, that means, but nevertheless now. eh, now this period of simply adaptation has passed. we need to return to normal capital. that's the stupidest thing. well, this raises the rate, i repeat for us. uh, the next wave of growth, if it happens next year, is due to us at the same time, we are held back by such a paradoxical story, when we do not

have enough labor. this was the strongest argument that he was based on restrictions on the part of labor, which at the same time, we are harming the industry. very low productivity, e and excess quantity. yes look at the setting there. look at the service sector, there is a lot of something there. yes, on these uh poor souls who are sitting there at the entrance there are crowds of security guards, yes, that means at the same time, we don’t have people producing here, it’s not to uh reduce them, then excess employment is also needed. naturally, in order for us to transfer people, where we must increase the capital pipes. uh, that means not very expensive solutions, where the number of employees is redundant to release such it they have new objects there. this is also a story about investing. we won’t be able to, not strangely, expand the labor limit, without

investments, namely private investments of fate, and and girlfriend there, because the situation is when you without risk, otherwise the central bank money market rates are not always pulled up inevitably, and we we'll get that without risk you'll get there, there's 13, there's 14. i didn't know the percentages. if you are holding money and why do you need this situation, we have madmen in some broadcasts, because in construction there, woodworking already has profitability, even in current activities and without taking into account investment risks, is already, well, lower than, uh, the cost of money. well, why are we going then? it’s a good question, where are we going, because we still need to understand, uh, our ultimate goals and the main question, uh, that stands now, what is more important for us is a certain price some kind of mythical stability or, after all

, economic growth, and as i understand it, the monetary authorities. now, for now, they are choosing what they know how to do beautifully: clamping down on liquidity, clamping down on the money supply so that it does not grow. if it has grown, then quickly stop it. eh, high places. rightly so. why take the risk in an industry where the rate of profitability is often below 10% ? uh, when is your risk-free rate? today the federal tax rate has already fallen, the government has dropped again, we have to pay now and borrow at 13-12. there are already current levels with kopecks of interest per annum. and in the summer and at the beginning, this level was much lower, and it turns out that budget expenses will increase again, in short, it turns out to be some kind of vicious circle. what do you think, as i understand it, you are a supporter of capital regulation? well, now it has already arrived, this couple had a moment when we

consciously let go. e repatriation of proceeds necessarily sales and so on and so forth, this had its own meaning, because the ruble was revalued. this is also not necessary. so we needed capital in order to buy that same tanker fleet. we have already bought it there, well, the second, third , fourth, where there is already one. uh, we needed the export of capital in order to bring too much of anything innovative into the stuffy cells of production. well, this task has already been solved. and now our task is not to discourage internal activities in this regard. yes, we have already brought and completed the tasks related rational , uh, that’s it. republic of logicians, for which one is needed? was there capital? he says it's already done, thank you. now our task there is not to suppress

domestic economic growth. here we go. if there is no point in taking the pope from the river and arrange it, arrange it. eh, what amazing measures. eh, hmm, playing liberal markets in a situation of economic war. there is simply nothing we can really do in this situation. uh, we have symbols that provided us with growth, uh, stabilization, and so on. last year the defense came to me and the authorities of history came upon me. there are new regions. we we can no longer increase them. it’s clear that we continue to build, but then where exactly next? yes, even if we talk about the same mortgage in regions not in moscow, but in moscow the market is overheated. this is also a question of the cost of the mortgage. and even all of them, but

the next one is a source of growth. this is a private investment by and large and a consumer way to bring the method to approximately twice as many components as the final method, but theirs is also a private investment. that’s why we must do everything to ensure that there is private investment, a thirteen percent rate. e of the central bank is accordingly a little more, it will be an insertion of the money market with medicine for the unfortunate. that's it, yes dmitrievich well , let's end our conversation here for now. i hope that we will meet again to discuss, there is something to talk about on specific uh, inflation broadcasts your center is preparing, very interesting analyzes and reports. so, thank you for now for taking the time. i think so anyway. and somehow we will solve this paradox. now there are

investments that are blocked by the current monetary policy. thanks a lot. all the best. thank you i could become anything i wanted , a musician, a restaurateur, a leading producer, a husband, a father, and i became, because there was always a free alpha bank for the smart and free. such low prices lift your spirits. okay pasta for 29.99 pyaterochka vtb is with you free card with 10% cashback on everything get a debit card for life with

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reliable, vladimir putin said during negotiations with his belarusian counterpart alexander lukashenko. and vladimir putin also spoke about his contacts with the leader of the dprk kim jong-un. the meeting between vladimir putin and alexander lukashenko took place at the bocharov ruchei residence, the leaders of the two countries discussed the situation in ukraine and current issues of bilateral cooperation. the state of the russian economy, of course, is reflected in our interaction within the framework of the union state, so in this regard we have mutual issues mutual obligations. but there is a need. it seems to me to compare notes, as you know from some of you, that’s what it was like for me to meet the leader. i would like to inform the region of the people's republic of korea, which is also

important, of course. and we were pleased to see you kim at the eastern cosmodrome. i think that we can think about cooperation somewhere between

the three of us. the european authorities continue to persist in their anti-russian aspirations, things have already reached the point of absurdity with new protective measures, directed against our citizens, essentially mean the creation of a new iron curtain, since no sane traveler would perform european whims, namely travel through a beautiful european garden with virtually no personal belongings. why has it come to such an absurdity , let's talk about this with the acting and permanent representative of russia under sharp kirill mikhailovich. well, i don’t even know what to do, now in russia you won’t go back on a bicycle and in shorts. a that's how it works. well, what did the european