companies are already coming with specific plans to put pressure on this asset, despite the impressive production volumes. over the entire period of production, 250 million tons of salt - this is only 3% of the total reserves of the deposit underground , according to various estimates, there are up to 15 billion tons of this vital mineral for the whole world of this goodness. it would be enough for 45 years, and for some individual countries for hundreds of years, or even millennia olga mokhova anastasia popova valery savelyev is a typical novorossiya. that's all we wanted to talk about. kirill was with you today vyshinsky see you soon. on air international review studio fyodor lukyanov today in the program international

review events of the week chronicle facts comments karabakh has hit the window of opportunity a new balance of power in the south of the caucasus materials from our program. conflicting role of the un security council reform issues what options are on the table? rumors about his death are greatly exaggerated the modern crisis of capitalism, fiction or reality the breakdown of the world order is when you don’t go through a week so that something doesn’t happen symbolic tone at the regional level, then at the global level one intersects the other. and now another turn is the end of history, the unrecognized nagorno-karabakh republic fruitlessly negotiated for decades by force decided in two steps in the fall of the twentieth and

in the fall of 23 azerbaijan restored its internationally recognized borders of the south caucasus is important not only for the region significant powers are involved in the conflict russia turkey iran israel on some distance away in the usa and france, we will soon find out whether the extra decoupling has now opened up the opportunity for sustainable settlement, or, on the contrary , a new rework begins. according to the global fire power portal, turkey's armed forces occupy eleventh place in the world among nato countries; its ground forces are the second largest after the united states and the largest in europe among the alliance countries; the turkish army is armed with more than 3.5 thousand american and german tanks , modern armored vehicles of its production. the mainstays of combat aviation are f-16 fighters of various attack modifications. combat

helicopters and drones have the largest fleet. in the mediterranean sea there are 165 warships and 13 submarines among the air defense systems of old american british systems, as well as the latest russian s-400 . iran's armed forces are the seventh largest in the world. they are approximately twice the size of turkey and consist of two independent structures of the army of the islamic republic and the islamic revolutionary guard corps. both structures have their own ground units, the air force, navy and air defense are armed with t-72 tanks, soviet armored personnel carriers and infantry fighting vehicles, and the air fleet is about 300 old aircraft. among them is monstrous, dear ones american f-14 tom cat, but they are too old, because they were bought back. under the shah , there are also french soviet aircraft, as well as new drones of our own production.

there are numerous islamic revolutionary guard corps fighters and their supporters in lebanon and iraq. the azerbaijani army is not even included in the world’s top twenty, but is considered the strongest in the southern caucasus; at least, its numbers exceed the armenian armed forces. even 10 years ago, baku significantly modernized its weapons through military purchases from russia to what was previously available, the azerbaijani army received 200 of the newest t-90 tanks, modern b p3 howitzers , 100s heavy flamethrower system sunburn and much more, the armenian forces can oppose them with not new t-72 tanks, armored personnel carriers, btr-70 and btr-80 azerbaijan has about 50 combat aircraft, mostly mig-29. baku also has the largest fleet of helicopters in the caucasus. russia recently sold azerbaijan 20 mi-24 combat helicopters and

more than 50 transport helicopters, not eight and mi-17 from the armenian side. there are 14 su-25 attack aircraft four su-30 fighters 12 military transport helicopters not eight and 12 mi-24 attack helicopters after the four-day war in 2016, armenia purchased iskander anti-aircraft missile systems from russia with a destruction range of 280 km in response azerbaijan acquired 10 belarusian chinese salvo launchers each fire polonaise consists of eight missiles with a range of up to 300 km. prospects everyone is still assessing caution turkey looks optimistic, the iranians without the west, it seems, have not yet figured out what’s next azerbaijan got by with a limited operation on the territory of karabakh only, if this does not

turn into a clash between armenia and azerbaijan, i don’t think that the region is in danger of instability. iran will not interfere with turkey; this option suits him, because any new shock will hit turkish interests . so, there are conflicts all around from ukraine and syria and cancer, azerbaijan is an important trade corridor in the direction of china and a supplier of energy resources. no, turkey does not need instability, until now the essence of the conflict was to win war. now it is even more difficult for tehran to win peace, while it is difficult to come to terms with the situation, turkey is happy, especially with how everything was resolved without much violence for baku and the outcome is actually also favorable, general normalization is difficult, but there is a positive point, first of all, public opinion was against reconciliation in both azerbaijan and turkey the resistance will now decrease, of course. there is a sense of humiliation in armenia, but it is more useful

to rationalize the approach to curb emotions. turkey russia has experience of joint management of the regional situation. the leadership of azerbaijan believes that the moment has come for major steps, russia could be absorbed by ukraine, america is weakened, ayran is experiencing economic difficulties , there may be an illusion that turkey and israel are ready to fully support their side and this pushes for a conflict, the results of which are unpredictable, because it is based on extremely sensitive historical and geographical ethnic matters, such conflicts have not been resolved for centuries. the whole region is full of such plots. i take risks strategic issues under the pressure of internal sentiments, for example, the iranian government is now under strong pressure from the iranian public, which demands to take a hard line against azerbaijan , all political forces are much more inclined. decisively, the government and authorities

fear that events in the region will lead to the rise of nationalism. in iran itself , historically it is the territory of the persian empire. they were separated from iran only 200-300 years ago by professor burzigar only 200-300 years ago. oh, it flows differently temporarily east back in november 2020, the leaders of russia, armenia and azerbaijan made a joint statement on the cessation of hostilities in the nagorno-karabakh conflict zone, its ninth point provided for the resumption of transport links between the western regions of azerbaijan and the nakhichevan autonomous republic, which was blocked in the early nineties after the first karabakh war. the transport route was supposed to pass through the entire neva region of armenia. the azerbaijanis call it the zangizur corridor according to the historical in the name of the southern territories of armenia

, an intergovernmental working group was created to implement the project. we agreed to lay a railway from the north, armenia to the city of gorodets through nakhichevan and the south of the country in january last year, azerbaijan reported that it had already laid 23 km of its section, armenia also began to lay a railway, but the senesur corridor also includes a highway. agreement on its construction was never achieved, armenia wanted to establish a customs regime of fees and duties on the future border road, according to the armenian side , armenia's gdp should have increased by 30%. after all, the corridor will be used not only by azerbaijan, but also by russia, turkey, central asian countries and china. azerbaijan was against customs duties for baku. the zangizur corridor is the shortest route connecting the ex-class.

iran also opposed nakhichevan and turkey. it is afraid of losing its own influence in the caucasus and the role of a transit country back in 2000. india russia iran signed an agreement to create an international transport corridor. north. the south was later joined by 10 more countries, among which azerbaijan, armenia and kazakhstan , it was planned that the route through the caspian sea would be holy. the baltic countries and india, but in the conditions when europe closed a new corridor, for now it can only be used for delivering goods to russia. perhaps, for the first time , a frozen conflict has entered a phase when almost everyone recognizes it as an internal matter of a particular country, except for the residents of the disputed territory themselves, but they are already they don’t ask what is important next, the agreement between the armenians karabakh and baku, armenia most likely will not interfere, pashinyan has already clearly stated that he recognizes azerbaijani karabakh

, if a new conflict does not break out, the zaur corridor, yerevan will not be involved, the role of russia is critically important here and it is very good that russian miratorians are participating in the process organizing contacts. they leave everything to do-it-yourself internal affairs doesn't mean you can do whatever you want with your citizens and special ones. we are not the last century. we live there is a concept of human rights that must be protected. and if the country does not want to comply with it. it is no longer her business within her to discuss. an agreement between armenia and azerbaijan must be ensured on equal terms and fair . negotiations between the armenian population and the azerbaijani authorities are now being negotiated by the karabakh authorities with a knife at their throats. they are forced to submit. azerbaijan does not offer any special status. there is no autonomy for armenians. there are many historical reasons, including over

the past 30 years, for which armenians believe that their lives and dignity will be at risk, if they are simply equated with ordinary citizens of azerbaijan, not all internal affairs are internal, this is a liberal approach. until recently, he was taken for granted, but is he still acting, criticizes russian peacemakers, who he believes did not cope with their responsibilities after the truce of the twentieth year and all international mediators in moscow washington and brussels are hanging over the question of yerevan’s responsibility? what if the armenian government chose not to protect karabakh tribesmen and implement a geopolitical turn in side of the west and what the hell is it, if nato , if someone in yerevan comes up with such a scenario, it will have a big role in terms of both strategy and timeliness. this

would be a very radical step. and it’s not so easy to just go and join. there are many criteria and the readiness of the country and the feasibility of organizing small countries may well lean in one direction or the other. it's okay to make formal commitments. in the field of security. this is completely different; you need to look at your situation realistically and not aggravate it with ill-considered decisions. all our interlocutors. we agree the situation. such is the need for caution, as mikhail mikhailovich zhvanetsky said, it is necessary if it comes to it. this is not necessary, a conventional war in our region is becoming the norm, that countries act not themselves, but through partner interrogated forces that conduct confrontation on their behalf and this sharply increases unpredictability. let's continue the conversation with our frequent guest and good friend nikolai silaev. hello kolya. there is such a point of view that the armenian

the leadership, to put it mildly, did not interfere with the simplification of the entire scheme in order to get rid of the karabakh burden, but to resolve certain geopolitical issues. there, maybe even turn towards nato, the eu and so on. eh, is it possible to assume this? or is this still our fantasy? i think that this assumption has a right to exist; another thing is that the armenian leadership at some point lost the choice to forgive or not forgive? and moreover, simplification itself was a fairly important goal for them, in addition to some additional considerations, such as rapprochement with nato or the eu or something similar. uh, what is the prime minister of armenia talking about now, that now there will be peace and armenia will

develop from the situation in which armenia now finds itself, it is really possible to turn towards nato the eu and it is clear that the leadership of armenia also has such sentiments another thing is that now nato and the eu themselves have changed, and if they were there 10 years ago, they also promised to integrate some goodies. that is, now the question is posed differently, not they asked, what did america do for you? they asked, what did you do for america ? this is what armenia will need to do in order to reorient itself towards this. the eu is still open, well, practically nato, the closest nato to armenia is turkey, and the closest eu to armenia is in in general, turkey is also a candidate for the eu. yes, but what’s surprising is that in the south caucasus. for a very long time, everyone, except, probably, azerbaijan, has been stubbornly

ignoring geography, because in their thoughts they are somewhere on the other side of the black sea or even to the west somewhere on the shores of the atlantic uh. this is a very interesting aberration, but it has always been present. i think it is still present. if you get such an imaginary geopolitics yes, absolutely this is an imaginary geopolitics and, uh, this is what exists in information flows. there is less news about turkey than news about the west plus. er, well, the belief remains from the nineties that the center of world politics is in the west. anyway, everything is decided by the west and the most important things happen there, so geography is not very good yet, but the general opinion whole piece of public comments, turkey is intensifying. iran, on the contrary, is losing, uh, iranian relations with azerbaijan

are terrible. not only that, but baku is also actively helping, that is, israel. uh , some completely new configuration is being built, and some are even talking about new blocks that are so informal on the one hand. turkey azerbaijan israel on the other who someone iran and who it is and russia i don’t know. this is also imaginary or not, in general blocks. they say that it has been there for more than 20 years since the collapse of the soviet union since the nineties to be precise, a and uh, yes always. this is roughly how they drew it, on the one hand. uh, turkey and azerbaijan sometimes joined them with georgia on the other side of russia, armenia, iran, and russia very consistently moved away from this bloc and logic in the caucasus, and it partly left the group. not of the general order, but part of it left, because contacts with

everyone were important and when you create blocs, you thereby automatically renounce influence on everyone who is not part of this bloc. now our uh, the situation is complicated because, and iran is uh one of the key partners. azerbaijan is a north-south transport corridor that connects us with this key partner. and even after the karabakh war, the second one in 1920. my colleague, by the way, akhmetriy lukapov, in my opinion, formulated it well. uh, the idea that uh in the southern caucasus comes the middle east. the south caucasus is getting closer to the middle east and indeed. but, if we look at uh, how uh iran and israeli confrontation is transferred to the caucasus , this is exactly what is happening. and there is another one detail. uh, it’s obvious that turkey has

azerbaijan’s initiative, and azerbaijan is in a very difficult situation. here. in what sense does a former dream always raise the question of a new dream? what to do next? who will his enemies choose now? who to choose as friends? a-ah, is there enough , uh, wisdom to stop this excitement that azerbaijan, of course, is engulfing, is it enough, uh, well , some kind of sanity, and forget all these words that were said earlier in baku that armenia is western azerbaijan and it is necessary to move further, it is necessary to have a land connection with nakhichevan and so on, and it depends on this, among other things, how the situation will develop, because if this expansion continues, then, well, apparently there will be no options other than creating blocks, well, naturally, informal blocks.

and if some other line is found, then, well, it may turn out somehow differently, because in addition to western azerbaijan, as they sometimes call armenia , there is also southern azerbaijan, which is now part of iran, this is, of course, in iran this the topic is extremely worrying. management yes , she worries management. this topic was raised at one time in baku. the truth has not been the last for a long time. this aggravation between azerbaijan and iran seems to be avoided without any talk about south azerbaijan in baku, but this is also one of the alarming things. the fact is that if we talk about turkey, then for turkey this is turkic unity, turkic reciprocity by analogy with slavic reciprocity. this is the last ah, great power bet, which played out in the case of azerbaijan. after many of turkey's other bets didn't work out, turkey didn't play out

, the bet on liberalization as a source of great power status didn't work out, and the idea of ​​joining the ksk didn't work out, then the bet that was made during arab spring on islam. democratization and turkey as the leader of islamic democratization , now the turkish theme has arisen, the turkic theme, and of course, if this theme is developed consistently, then the question must be raised with its fraternal azerbaijanis. but here too balance of excitement and sanity. again, we believe that the west and the united states in particular play an important role in these events and in the south caucasus in general. eh, this is probably the case in yerevan, as you know, there is a gigantic american embassy, ​​almost the largest, but now there is a feeling that the west is in something like that. if not stupor, then silent observation, even in general,

almost nothing is said. it seems to me that they wanted to, uh, move russia in the armenian-azerbaijani regulation, and they moved it, but it’s not clear what of this received and i would assume that, uh, if someone in the west is planning some kind of policy regarding the south caucasus, then it is planned. she is on the lower floors of the state apparatus. and, of course, it's not a priority and hmm well, what we see is that it's not a priority, and we see how uh. well, like 20 years ago. this was seen as such a triumphant march of democracy. the west saw this as a triumphal march of democracy. it is now clear that there is no rapid growth of influence in the triumphant brutal democracy. the west is not happening either. it is too a new situation for them that they have to somehow uh that they have to somehow deal with. well, if it’s not a priority for them, then

it definitely remains a priority for us, but what should we do now in russia here? there is a very noticeable difference between the media agenda and the diplomatic agenda; from the point of view of the media agenda, the whole story is already over. yeah, from the point of view of the diplomatic agenda , several very important problems remain. the first problem is how, uh, don’t admit what tools russia has to to prevent the massacre in nagorny, the massacre of armenians in nagorny korabakh or the ethnic cleansing of the army on a mountain ship, and the second is that, uh, a tripartite statement that was agreed upon by putin aliyev o pashinyan, uh, well, in moscow and sochi and for several years. after all, no one canceled them; they continue to operate. there are questions about resuming the restoration of transport communications. there are questions about the border. there are questions about the peace treaty that

have not yet been signed. and in all these matters, russia will be submerged one way or another, but it is clear that, uh, uh, how should i say, if earlier uh karabakh was such a barometer of the situation in the region, which showed who is stronger here, who is weaker, who is more influential, who is less influential, then now this, uh, this indicator, this marker is going away and uh, apparently. uh, of course, we need to finish, what remains to be completed, ah, but then we will need to set priority in some other way and here it is very interesting, for example, what will happen to georgia because uh, the strengthening of azerbaijan is not only what iran notices notices russia notices, turkey but this is what georgia notices, how will it react to this, which on the one hand?

of course, on the other hand, the eu is closest to nato of all the countries in the region. she behaves in relation to the ukrainian crisis. well, at least very independent. in addition, georgia has always been afraid of ending up. what do they call it between the king and the sultan and for them. this is also some kind of challenge. i wonder how they will answer it. thank you very much we talked with nikolai silovoy from meme. national territorial confrontation in nagorny karabakh broke out 35 years ago and became the first in a series of clashes that shook the ussr. for three decades, they thought that a new configuration had emerged and the conflicts were deeply frozen, but the balance of power and the freezer changed. karabakh turned off is just one example. the new order of the world arises in a tough struggle on all fronts and

politics cannot be separated from economics. i am sure the famous economist jeffrey sachs, whom we asked what the next crisis will be, financial systems are intertwined, i would even draw an analogy with fabric, when you pull the a thread, you never know exactly how much fabric will unravel; i don’t think it’s possible to predict. what will the next crisis be like? when i was a student, i was studying the economic shock caused by the sharp rise in oil prices in the seventies, when i realized that macroeconomics. skin clinical medicine patient may suffer from various diseases for which there is no universal remedy ; the economy may suffer from supply demand shock financial shock and others. recently we were faced with a pandemic shock, which, by the way, could have been the work of man, doing your own research. i have come to the conclusion that covid-19 is likely an artificially created virus, a product of the us government that has gotten out of

control, it could have been created for various reasons as a result of the study of viruses to develop biological weapons or vaccines. i'm bringing this up because i want to point out that what we've been through may be yet another man-made crisis and because the american government is hiding much of the information about the full picture. we don't have. the latest scandal has erupted around news that the cia may have bribed its agents to confirm the natural origin of the virus. and they didn’t talk about possible laboratory leaks. so the world economy is faced with a pandemic crisis. could anyone have foreseen this? but now we can foresee something. today we are dealing with geopolitical shocks caused by the military conflict in ukraine and the consequences of the coronavirus pandemic. during the pandemic , the economic decline was very sharp, as a reaction to the knockdown, the fed again decided to issue additional money for

financial memory warnings, excessive expansion of the money supply led to inflation, which the us began to experience in 2022. it continues into 2023, so the current inflation is the result of a combination of factors and the consequences of easing monetary policy due to the pandemic and the military confrontation in ukraine and the problems of international markets and geopolitical tensions between the united states and china - all this creates an unstable macroeconomic environment. the situation in europe is very likely to decline. looks like germany already in recession. the same prospects await others; we can foresee a future with new shocks. true, it’s still difficult to say which ones exactly? in the broadest sense of the word, this is a means that the government borrows from individuals and legal entities of foreign states or international organizations to pay for its expenses; its

statistics by country are constantly changing, and estimates of the volume vary significantly according to the data ; at first, two thousandths of the size of the global government debt, that is, the financial obligations of the government banks, not financial organizations and households of all countries increased more than 5 times and amounted to 92 trillion dollars, surpassing global gdp which tripled over the same period. and according to experts from the institute of international finance, in the second quarter of this year, global debt. reaching a record $170 trillion, about half of this amount came from corporations, about 90 trillion from the government and almost 60 trillion from individuals. more than 80% of the debt was accumulated by developed countries japan great britain france but first of all

the usa is currently the number one debtor in the world. for 100 years, its national debt has increased 84 times and recently updated the historical record, exceeding the mark of 33 trillion dollars. that is, the usa owes as much money as china, japan, france and italy combined, according to forecasts analysts, with the current dynamics , the white house’s national debt will exceed 34 trillion in less than 3 months, a kind of anti-record. japan has been setting it in march for several years now. the national debt of the land of the rising sun was estimated at nine trillion dollars. that it is more than twice the gdp. such figures are explained by the spending of the program by an aging population and slow economic growth among developing countries. china , india and brazil, in particular, have been rapidly increasing their debt; in particular , chinese financial institutions and banks assess the debt burden differently.