[000:00:26;00] hello, on the air international review in the studio fyodor lukyanov today in the program international review events of the week chronicle facts comments karabakh has hit the window of opportunity new balance of power in the south of the caucasus materials of our program, the controversial role of the un issues of reform of the security council what options are on the

table? rumors about his death are greatly exaggerated the modern crisis of capitalism, fiction or reality the elephant of the world order is when a week does not pass, so that something significant does not happen, then at the regional level, then on the global scale one intersects the other. and now another turn is the end of history, the unrecognized nagorno-karabakh republic fruitlessly negotiated for decades by force, decided in two steps in the fall of 20 and in the fall of 23, azerbaijan restored its internationally recognized borders. the new reality of the south caucasus is important not only for the region ; significant powers are involved in the conflict: russia turkey iran israel at some distance , the united states and france will soon find out whether the unnecessary outcome has now opened up an opportunity for sustainable

settlement, or, on the contrary , a new redistribution begins. according to the global fire power portal, the turkish armed forces rank eleventh in the world among nato countries, its ground forces are the second largest after the united states and the largest in europe among the alliance countries, the turkish army is armed with more than 3,500 american and german tanks , modern armored vehicles of its own production are the basis of combat aviation consists of f-16 fighters in various modifications attack combat helicopters and drones the fleet is the largest in the mediterranean sea there are 165 warships and 13 submarines among the air defense systems of old american british systems, as well as the latest russian s-400 . iran's armed forces are the seventh largest in the world. they are approximately twice the size of turkey and consist

of two independent structures, the army of the islamic republic and the corps and guards of the islamic revolution. their structures have their own ground units, the air force, navy and air defense are armed with t-72 tanks, soviet armored personnel carriers and infantry fighting vehicles , and the air fleet is about 300 old aircraft. among they are monstrously expensive american f-14 tom cat, but they are too old, because they were bought during the reign of the shah, there are also french soviet aircraft, as well as new drones of our own production. in the series of lebanon and iraq there are numerous militants of the islamic revolutionary guard corps and their supporters. the azerbaijani army is not even included in the world's top twenty, but is considered the strongest in the south caucasus, at least its numbers exceed the armenian armed forces 10 years ago baku significantly modernized its weapons due to military purchases from russia, in addition to what was

previously available, the azerbaijani army received 200 of the latest t-90 tanks and modern bmp-3. howitzers stas heavy flamethrower system sunburn and much more, the armenian forces can oppose them with not new t-72 tanks, armored personnel carriers, btr-70 and btr-80 . azerbaijan has about 50 combat aircraft , mainly mig-29. baku also has the largest fleet of helicopters in the caucasus. russia recently sold 20 mi-24 combat helicopters and more than 50 transport helicopters to azerbaijan helicopters, not eight and mi-17 from the armenian side. there are 14 su-25 attack aircraft, 4 su-30 fighters, 12 military transport helicopters, not eight, and 12 mi-24 attack helicopters. after the four-day war in 2016, armenia purchased iskander anti-aircraft missile systems from russia with a range

of 280 km; in response, azerbaijan acquired 10 belarusian chinese installations. each polonaise is eight missiles with a range of up to 300 km. prospects everyone is still assessing cautiously turkey looks optimistic, iranians without in the west , it seems, they haven’t realized at all that further azerbaijan has managed limited operations on the territory of only karabakh, if this does not turn into a clash between armenia and azerbaijan, i don’t think that the region is in danger of instability. iran will not interfere. turkey is happy with this option because any new shock will hit turkish interests. so there are conflicts all around from ukraine and syria to iraq . azerbaijan is an important trade corridor in the direction of china and a supplier of energy resources.

no, turkey doesn't need instability yet the point of the conflict was to win the war. now it is even more difficult for tehran to win peace, while it is difficult to come to terms with the situation turkey is happy, especially with how everything was resolved without much violence for baku and the outcome is actually also favorable general normalization is difficult, but there is a positive point, first of all, public opinion was against reconciliation in both azerbaijan and turkey the resistance will now decrease, of course. there is a sense of humiliation in armenia, but it is more useful to rationalize the approach to curb emotions. u turkey russia has experience of joint governance. regional situation the leadership of azerbaijan believes that the moment has come for major steps by russia; ukraine could be absorbed by america ; america is weakened. ayran is experiencing economic difficulties; an illusion may arise that turkey and israel are ready to fully support the side and this pushes

into a conflict whose results are predictable to them, because it is based on extremely sensitive historical, geographical , ethnic matters; such conflicts have not been resolved for centuries. the whole region is full of such stories. i risk strategic issues under the pressure of internal sentiments, for example, the iranian government is now under strong pressure from the iranian public, which demands to take a hard line against azerbaijan, all political forces are much more inclined. decisively, the government and authorities fear that events in the region will lead to the rise of nationalism. in iran itself , historically this is the territory of the persian empire. they were separated from iran only 200,300 years ago. pay attention to the words professor borzigar just 200-300 years ago oh, time flows differently in the east back in

november 2020, the leaders of russia, armenia and azerbaijan made a joint statement on the cessation of hostilities in the nagorno-karabakh conflict zone, its ninth point provided for the resumption of transport links between the western regions of azerbaijan and the nakhchivan autonomous republic of which was blocked in the early nineties after the first karabakh war. the transport route had to go through the entire neva region of armenia, azerbaijanis call it the zangizur corridor, after the historical name of the southern territories of armenia , an intergovernmental organization was created to implement the project. working group. we agreed to lay a railway from the north of armenia to the city of gorodist through nakhichevan and the south of the country in january last year, azerbaijan reported that it had already laid 23 km of its section, armenia also began to lay a railway, but the corridor beyond suri. it also includes a highway

. there was no agreement on its construction achieved armenia wanted to establish border customs regimes of fees and duties on the future road, in the opinion of the armenian side they should have increased armenia's gdp by 30%, after all, the corridor would be used not only by azerbaijan but also by russia, turkey , central asian countries and china azerbaijan was against customs duties for baku the zangizur corridor is the shortest route connecting the ex-class. iran also opposed nakhichevan and turkey. it is afraid of losing its own influence in the caucasus and the role of a transit country back in 2000 india russia iran signed an agreement on the creation of an international transport corridor. north. the south was later joined by 10 more countries , including azerbaijan, armenia and kazakhstan. it was planned that the route through the spi would connect the baltic countries and india, but in the conditions

when europe closed the new corridor, for now it can only be used for delivering goods to russia. perhaps, for the first time, a frozen conflict has entered a phase where almost everyone recognizes it as an internal matter of a particular country, except for the residents of the disputed country themselves territories, but they are no longer asked what is important next is the agreement between the armenians of karabakh and baku. armenia most likely will not interfere. pashinyan has already clearly stated that he recognizes azerbaijani karabakh, if a new conflict does not break out, the trans-russian corridor, yerevan will not be involved, here it is critical the role of russia is important and it is very good that the russian world of turkey is participating in the process of organizing contacts. they leave everything on the plane internal affairs doesn't mean you can do whatever you want to your citizens and past centuries are special to me. we live

a concept of human rights that must be protected. and if the country does not want to comply with them. this is no longer its internal matter; before discussing the peace agreement between armenia and azerbaijan, it is necessary to ensure equal and fair negotiations between the armenian population and the azerbaijani authorities, now the karabakh authorities are negotiating with a knife at their throats. they are forced to submit. azerbaijan does not offer any special status. there is no autonomy for armenians. there are many historical reasons, including over the past 30 years, for which armenians believe that their lives and dignity would be at risk if they were simply equated with ordinary azerbaijani citizens. not all internal affairs are internal - this is a liberal approach. until recently, he was taken for granted, but is he still in effect? ​​balyan criticizes russian peacekeepers, who he believes did not cope with their responsibilities after

the truce of the twentieth year and all international mediators in moscow, washington and brussels are faced with the question of responsibility. yerevan what if the government of armenia chose not to protect the karabakh fellow tribesmen, to carry out a geopolitical turn towards the west, and what the hell is not joking, if nato, if someone in yerevan comes to mind, such a scenario, it will have a big role in terms of both strategy and timeliness . this would be a very radical step. and it’s not so easy to just go and join. there are many criteria for a country’s readiness and feasibility for organizing small countries. they may well lean towards one or the other on the other hand, it is normal to accept formal security obligations. this is completely different; you need to look at your situation realistically and not aggravate it with ill-considered decisions. all

our interlocutors. we agree, the situation. such is the need for caution, as mikhail mikhailovich zhvanetsky said, more caution is needed if it comes to escalation. this is not necessary, a conventional war in our region is becoming the norm, that countries act not themselves, but through partner and follow-on forces that wage confrontation from their name and this dramatically increases unpredictability. let's continue the conversation with our frequent guest and good friend nikolai silaev. hello kolya. there is such a point of view that the armenian leadership, to put it mildly, did not interfere with the simplification of the entire scheme in order to get rid of the karabakh encumbrance and, well, resolve some geopolitical issues. there, maybe even turn towards nato, the eu and so on. eh, is it possible to assume this or is it still our fantasy? i think that this assumption is quite valid

existence is another matter, that at some point the armenian leadership lost the choice to simplify or not to simplify? and what’s more, it’s the very simplification. this was a fairly important goal for them, in addition to some additional considerations, such as rapprochement with nato or the eu or something like that. uh, what is the prime minister of armenia talking about now, that now there will be peace and armenia will develop. and from the situation in which armenia now finds itself, it is really possible to turn towards nato and the eu, and it is clear that the leadership of armenia such sentiments are also another matter that nato and the eu themselves have now changed. and if, uh, 10 years ago, they

still promised those being integrated some goodies. that is, now the question is posed differently and asks what america has done for you, i ask what you have done for america, this is what armenia will need to do in order to reorient itself towards this, the eu is still open , it is practically nato, the closest nato to armenia is turkey and the closest ones are armenia, which, in general, is also turkey as a candidate responsibility. yes, but the surprising thing is that in the south caucasus for a very long time everyone, except, probably, azerbaijan , stubbornly ignores this geography, because they are in their thoughts. this is somewhere under the other side of the black sea or even to the west somewhere on the atlantic coast. this is a very interesting aberration, but it has always been present. i think it is still present. if it turns out to be such an imaginary geopolitics yes, absolutely this is an imaginary geopolitics and uh. this is uh what

exists in information flows. there there is less news about turkey than news about the west plus. eh, well, the belief remains from the nineties that the center of world politics is in the west. anyway, everything is decided by the west, and everything that is most important happens there, so the geography, while not very good, is good, but the general opinion, at least in public comments, is that turkey is strengthening iran, on the contrary, it is losing. and iranian relations with azerbaijan are terrible . so, not only that, but baku is also actively helping, israel, that is, uh, is building some completely new configuration and some are even talking about new blocs such informal on the one hand, turkey azerbaijan israel on the other who someone iran and who it is and russia i don’t know. this is also imaginary or not, in general about

blocks. they have been saying for more than 20 years since the collapse of the soviet union, since the nineties, exactly speaking, and uh, yes, always. that’s roughly how they pictured it, that on the one hand, and turkey and azerbaijan sometimes joined them with georgia on the other side. russia armenia iran russia has very consistently moved away from this there has always been bloc logic in the caucasus, and it partly went away for reasons of general order, and partly it went away because contacts with uh were important. and when you create blocs , you thereby automatically renounce influence on everyone who is not part of this bloc . now our uh, situation complicated because iran is one of the key partners. azerbaijan is a north- south transport corridor that connects us with this key

partner, and even after the karabakh war, the second one in 2020. my mmo colleague rakhmetry lukapov. in my opinion it's good formulated the idea that the middle east is coming to the south caucasus. the south caucasus is becoming closer to the middle east and indeed . but if we look at how the iranian-israeli confrontation is transferred to the caucasus, this is exactly what is happening. oh, and there is one more detail. uh, it’s obvious that turkey has the initiative, and azerbaijan is in a very difficult situation. here. in what sense does a dream come true always raise the question of a new dream? what to do next? who should you choose as your enemy now? who to choose in friends? is there enough wisdom to stop this excitement that azerbaijan

is of course engulfing? is it enough? well, some kind of common sense, uh, forget all these words that were associated earlier in baku that armenia is western azerbaijanis. we need to move on, we need a land connection with nakhichevan and so on. ah, and how the situation will develop depends on this, because if, uh, this expansion continues, then, apparently, there are no options other than creating blocks there will be, well, of course, informal blocks. and if some other line is found, then, well, it may turn out somehow differently, because in addition to western azerbaijan, as they sometimes call armenia, there is also southern azerbaijan , which is now part of iran, this, of course, in iran this is a topic of extreme concern for the leadership . yes, she worries the management. this topic was raised at one time in baku. true, not in recent years . this aggravation between

azerbaijan and iran seems to be avoided without talking about south azerbaijan baku ah, but this is also one of the alarming things. the fact is that if we talk about turkey, then for turkey this is turkic unity, turkic reciprocity by analogy with slavic reciprocity. this is the last ah, great power bet, which played out in the case of azerbaijan. after many of turkey's other bets didn't work out, turkey didn't play out its bet on a liberalization as a source of great power status didn't work out, and the idea of ​​joining the eu didn't work out, then the bet that was made during the arab spring on islamic democratization and turkey as the leader of islamic democratization. now a turkish theme has arisen, a turkic theme, and of course, if this theme

is developed consistently, then questions must be raised with the fraternal azerbaijanis. well, here, too, there is a balance of excitement and sanity, again we believe that the west, the united states in particular, plays an important role in the events and these and in general in the south caucasus , this is probably the case in yerevan, as you know, the gigantic american embassy, ​​almost the biggest thing, but now there is a feeling that the west is in some kind of, if not stupor, then a kind of silent observation, even in general, saying almost nothing. it seems to me that they wanted to move russia into the army under azerbaijani regulation, and they moved it. well, it’s not clear what they got out of this and i would assume that, uh, if someone in the west is planning some kind of policy towards the south caucasus, then they are planning it. she is on the lower floors of

the state apparatus. and, of course, this is not a priority and hmm well, we see that this is not priority, and we see how uh. well, like 20 years ago. this was somehow seen as a triumphant march of democracy. the west saw this as a triumphal march of democracy. it is now clear that there is no rapid growth of influence between triangular iron and democracy. the west is not happening either. this is also a new situation for them, which they must somehow, uh, with which they must somehow deal. well, if it’s not a priority for them, then it definitely remains a priority for us, but what can we do now in russia here? that's very there is a noticeable difference between the media agenda and the diplomatic agenda; from the point of view of the media agenda, the whole story is already over. yeah, from the point of view of the diplomatic agenda , several very important problems remain. the first problem is how to uh prevent and what tools does russia

have to prevent the massacre of armenians in nagorno-karabakh or the ethnic cleansing of the army in the mountain ship, and the second is that uh, a trilateral statement , which aliyev and pashinyan agreed on the path in moscow and sochi, for several years. after all, no one canceled them; they continue to operate. there are questions about resuming the restoration of transport communications. there are border issues. there are questions about the peace treaty that have not yet been signed. and in all these matters, russia will be one way or another immersed, but it is clear that , uh, uh, how to say, if before, uh, karabakh was such a barometer of the situation in the region, which showed. who is stronger and who is weaker here? who is more influential, who less influential, then now this, uh, this

indicator, this marker is going away and uh, apparently. oh, of course, it needs to be finished. what remains to be completed, huh, but then the priority will need to be set somehow differently and here it is very interesting, for example, what will happen to georgia because the strengthening of azerbaijan is not only what iran notices , russia notices, turkey but this what georgia notices is how will it react to this, which is it on the one hand? of course, on the other hand, the eu is closest to nato of all the countries in the region. she behaves towards ukrainian crisis. well, at least very independent. in addition, georgia has always been afraid of ending up. what do they call it between the king and the sultan and for them. this is also some kind of challenge. i wonder how they will answer it. thank you very much we talked

with nikolai silov from memes. the national territorial confrontation in nagorno -karabakh broke out 35 years ago and became the first in a series of clashes that shook the ussr for three decades, they thought that a new configuration had taken shape and the conflicts were deeply frozen. well, the balance of power has changed and freezer. karabakh turned off is just one example. a new world order arises in a fierce struggle on all fronts, and politics cannot be separated from economics, the famous economist jeff and sachs, whom we asked, is sure. what will the next crisis be like financial systems are intertwined, i would even draw an analogy with a fabric, when you pull a thread, you never know exactly how much fabric will unravel, i don’t think it’s possible to predict. what will the next crisis be like? when i was

a student, i studied economic shock, caused by the oil price spike in the seventies, when i realized that krae economics is similar to clinical medicine, the patient can get sick with various diseases for which there is no universal cure, the economy can suffer from supply shock, demand shock , financial shock and others. we recently faced a pandemic shock, which, by the way, could have been the work of a person doing his own research. i have come to the conclusion that covid-19 is likely a man-made, man -made virus, a product of the us government that has gotten out of control, created by various reasons as a result of the study of viruses for the development of biological weapons or vaccines. i'm talking about this because i want to point out that what we've been through may be another man-made crisis and since the american government is hiding much of the information about the virus the full picture. we don't have the latest scandal to erupt over news that the cia may have bribed its

agents to confirm natural origins. not a virus and they didn’t talk about possible laboratory leaks. so the world the economy is facing a pandemic crisis. could anyone have foreseen this? but now we can foresee something. today we are dealing with geopolitical shocks caused by the military conflict in ukraine and the consequences of the coronavirus pandemic. during the pandemic, the economic decline was very sharp, as a reaction to the lockdown, the fed again decided on an additional monetary mission to prevent financial panic, an excessive increase in the money supply led to inflation, which the us began to feel it in 2022. it continues in 2023 thus the current ones inflation is the result of a combination of factors and the consequences of easing monetary policy due to the pandemic and the military confrontation in ukraine and the problems of international markets and geopolitical tensions between the united states and

china - all this creates an unstable situation. about the economic situation in europe, which is very likely to experience a recession. looks like germany is already in recession. the same prospects await others ; we can foresee a future with new shocks. true, it’s still difficult to say which ones exactly? in the broadest sense of the word this is a means that the government borrows from individuals and legal entities of foreign countries or international organizations to pay its expenses; its statistics by country are constantly changing, and estimates of the volume vary significantly according to the data. at the beginning of two thousandths, the size of the total world public debt, that is, the financial obligations of the government of banks, non-financial organizations and households of all countries increased more than 5 times and amounted to 92 trillion dollars

, surpassing global gdp which tripled during that same period. and according to experts from the institute of international finance, in the second quarter of this year, global debt. reached a record of three hundred and seven trillion dollars, about half of this amount came from corporations, about 90 trillion from the government and almost 60 million from individuals. more than 80% of the debt was accumulated by developed countries japan great britain france but primarily the usa today washington is the number one debtor in the world for 100 years its national debt has increased 84 times and recently updated historical records, exceeding the mark at 33 trillion dollars, that is, the united states owes as much money as china , japan, france and italy combined , according to analysts’ forecasts, with the current dynamics , the white house’s national debt will exceed 34 trillion in less than 3 months, a kind of

anti-record. japan has been setting it in march for several years now. the national debt of the land of the rising sun was estimated at nine trillion dollars. that is, it was more than twice the gdp. such indicators are explained by spending on social programs by the aging population and slow economic growth among developing countries. china, india and brazil, in particular, have been increasing their debt at a rapid pace; in particular, the debt burden of chinese financial institutions and banks is estimated differently from six to 23 trillion dollars . according to imf forecasts, in the coming years , china's public debt will only grow and by 2027 will exceed 100% of gdp and in 5 years its level will almost double compared to