on oil in the seventies, then i realized that macroeconomics is similar to clinical medicine , a patient can get sick with various diseases, for which there is no universal cure, the economy can suffer from a supply-demand shock, a financial shock and others. we recently faced a pandemic shock, which, by the way, could have been the work of a person doing his own research. i have come to the conclusion that covid-19 is likely a man-made virus, a product of the us government that has gotten out of control, it could have been created in different ways reasons resulting from the study of viruses to develop biological weapons or vaccines. i'm bringing this up because i want to point out that what we've been through may be another man-made crisis and because the american government is hiding much of the information about the full picture. we do not have the latest scandal that erupted around the news, perhaps she bribed her own people. so that they

confirm the natural origin of the virus and do not talk about possible laboratory leaks. so the world economy is faced with pandemic crisis. could anyone have foreseen this? but now we can foresee something. today we are dealing with geopolitical shocks caused by the military conflict in ukraine and the consequences of the coronavirus pandemic. during the pandemic, the economic decline was very sharp, as a reaction to the station, the fed again decided on an additional monetary mission to prevent financial panic, an excessive increase in the money supply led to inflation, which us international markets and geopolitical tensions between the us and china all create an unstable the macroeconomic situation in europe, which is very likely to decline. looks like germany is already in recession. we can foresee the same prospects awaiting others, a future with new shocks, it’s true. and

it’s still difficult to say exactly. in the broad sense of the word, this is a means that the government borrows from individuals and legal entities of foreign states or international organizations to pay for its expenses; its statistics by country are constantly changing, and estimates of the volume vary significantly according to data ; it is at first two thousandth the size of the global public debt, that is, financial liabilities of governments, banks, non-financial organizations and households of all countries increased more than fivefold and amounted to $92 trillion, surpassing global gdp which tripled over the same period. and according to experts from the institute of international finance, in the second quarter of this year, global debt. reached a record $3,007 million, about half of this amount came from corporations, about 90 trillion from

the government and almost 60 trillion from individuals. more than 80% of the debt has accumulated developed countries japan great britain france but primarily in the usa today washington is the number one debtor in the world for 100 years its national debt has increased 84 times and recently updated the historical record, exceeding the mark of 33 trillion dollars, that is, the usa owes the same amount of money how much china japan france and italy taken together , according to analysts’ forecasts, with the current dynamics , the white house’s national debt will exceed 34 trillion in less than 3 months, a kind of anti-record. japan has been setting it in march for several years now. national debt of the country rising sun was valued at nine trillion dollars. that is, it was more than twice the gdp. such indicators are explained by spending on social programs by an aging population and

slower economic growth among developing countries. china, india and brazil, in particular, have been increasing their debt at a rapid pace; in particular, the debt burden of chinese financial institutions and banks is estimated differently from six to 23 trillion dollars . according to imf forecasts, in the coming years , china's public debt will only grow and by 2027 will exceed 100% of gdp and in 5 years his level is almost will double compared to pre-pandemic levels. he asked in layman's terms, for the next 5 years. do you look with optimism or pessimism? for me, everything now depends on geopolitics; perhaps we will see a split of the world into opposing camps. it looks like this is already happening with brix and the american camp. they stand opposite each other, if the escalation and accompanying conflicts

continue, worst-case scenarios may not be the worst, but the worst one will be a war for taiwan; it is not excluded for many americans, it seems they are even waiting for her, which, in my opinion , is amazing and completely reckless. then it turns out that there is absolutely no room for optimism. if the situation gets out of control, a global catastrophe will really happen. in ukraine, we need to sit down at the negotiating table to reduce tensions in relations between the united states and china and start building the infrastructure of the 21st century. perhaps something from this list. might make me be a pessimist. the question here is only choice. the main shocks will not be of an economic nature, the main crisis and right now geopolitical this week attention has been focused on another aspect of the global crisis.

a new wave of illegal migrants to the south of europe, the long-suffering island of lampedusa, the head of the european commission, the foundation went there, promised to take measures, it is unclear, what about the people who risk themselves to get to blessed europe, our author is from pakistan there are few jobs in the country and therefore many people want to leave to earn money abroad. however, they often leave the country illegally recently in greek waters about 300 pakistanis drowned when a fishing boat carrying emigrants sank. the population of pakistan is 250 million people, due to the lack of proper economic policy, without work, today about 1/5 of all residents, people with and without qualifications, are united by one dream of a better life for themselves and their families. usman sits from gujarat. i wanted to escape poverty and high inflation. he almost died when

he was traveling illegally from pakistan to egypt , then from there to italy, but fate was favorable to him. i sold my pet and motorcycle borrowed money from friends and relatives and collected $20,000 from the carrier, who made me a forged document claiming that the greek authorities deliberately sank the boat at sea. and if they wanted, they could have saved many, but they didn’t do this to me; there were many people in libya. they all wanted a better life. but as it turned out, this is the path to death. don't try to walk on it. this is very. dangerously legal transporting people in pakistan has become a lucrative business that is growing despite strict legislation and government law enforcement officials say about 30 carriers who transported dead pakistanis abroad were arrested, 82 bodies were found, 281.

the family provided us with dna believing their children may have been victims of the crash. now an investigation is being carried out by specialists of people carriers, so influential that people trust them in the lives of their children, two sons of maryam sultans died in a boat accident, tahir nazir and kaiser mehmood wanted to go to italy for the sake of a better future for their children, but also for the accident their children were left orphans. in this case, transportation. cost the family $40,000. now this money has been lost in the gamble and due to circumstances they have been asked to pay. they immediately had to sail to italy. but they died . tahir nazir’s son alihasan, unemployed, he also wants to go abroad to save the remaining members of his family from poverty and deprivation. but unlike his father, he plans to leave the country by plane. i'm ready to fly now my family is trying to send my older brother abroad. in the city of gudrat

in the province. punjab. no family who is anyone. yes, he didn’t leave; most local residents prefer to leave than to work. there is poverty and unemployment here. inflation. here are three reasons why the number of people leaving pakistan is increasing every year. last year 800,000 pakistanis. they left the country legally, while the number of those who went abroad illegally is much larger, despite the action of the police, carriers send hundreds of thousands of people abroad illegally every year. we'll continue after the ad about the world order, the place of action of the un, i could become anyone, a musician, a restaurateur,

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friends. recommend alpha bank and get 1,500 rubles. we will not forget about your friends for every recommendation. they will also receive money. find out how to recommend and earn money on alpha-bank.ru alpha-bank is the best mobile bank. new york is hosting the un high week , a meeting of the general assembly with the participation of heads and ministers of member states in times of peace. this is a big fashion show right now and it doesn’t smell like peace. the atmosphere is tense and the questions are pressing. ahmadi from iran with his idea of ​​the united nations organization a drawing called the un umbrella a look from the middle east artist under the pseudonym amarin from

brazil general assembly of the un work called wolves and sheep an extremely expressive image velvetmore from germany mocking the chancellor's speech at the un general assembly is not we too good called work, germany is ready. save the world. a similar person says, quiet please, someone from the audience answers the difficult fate of the current secretary general. patrick shapat and switzerland predicted antonio gutersha back in 2016, when he took office, the next person who looks like a pangin tells him, handing over the reins of power. and this is work. this is hulme, dating back to 1993 . sportsman written he on a brick wall nationalism ending everyone can imagine imagine yourself. us president biden announced

speaking at the forum that the united states will seek reform of the un security council; representativeness is needed. not new, and you can’t argue, of course it’s needed. just what kind. the issue of reforming the security council has been discussed for several decades. following the results of the second world war , five countries received the status of permanent members and the legal council: russia, usa, china, great britain and france, there are 10 non-permanent members who are elected for a period of 2 years. on this background. other countries. he proposes to reconsider the format of his participation. the security council has its numbers and methods of work. in particular, reforms are advocated by the so-called group of four, which includes brazil, germany, india and japan, in march the countries made a joint statement calling for an increase in the number of seats in the body to 25 or 26 and

demanded new permanent membership for six countries, including themselves, and provisional membership for four more new ones , permanent member. if accepted. the group of four proposes to abandon the right summer for at least 15 years. permanent membership in the council is also claimed by groups of african and arab countries; the latter oppose the right century of the five permanent members of the security council; another group is the so-called consensus unions, which includes argentina italy spain canada mexico pakistan as well as china and indonesia as observers, proposes to increase the composition of the un security council up to 26 members, but keep the status of five permanently by design, the remaining 20 temporary members and africa asia latin america and the caribbean western and eastern europe will have to be elected general assembly for a period of 2 years. there is also a group of l-69 from thirty-two developing

countries in africa, latin america and the caribbean, asia and the pacific. they propose to grant permanent membership to all regions. along with this, the association requires rotation in the light of small islands. of the states that make up a fifth of the un member states, representatives of the prc claim that membership in the security council is unbalanced between north and south. beijing calls for inviting countries in asia, africa, and latin america to participate. and the arab world, and russia advocates expanding the un security council to include the countries of asia, africa and latin america , world leaders have repeatedly spoken out on the issue of reforming the un security council. before we fantasize about reforming, let’s make it clear that under the current international legislation it is impossible to change anything, even if

there were fewer contradictions between countries. if we are talking about reforming the un in general, then reform can concern, let’s say, if it concerns the main bodies of the un as it is including the security council, it is necessary to make changes to the un charter, this is a very complicated procedure, because in order for the charter to be amended, it is necessary for uh, 2/3 of its general assembly to vote for this amendment and another two-thirds of the states, he, including the five permanent security council ratified the treaty, which type of amendments were provided for since russia is one of the permanent members of the security council, therefore, if russia does not ratify these amendments. the joint is in parts, let’s say that the activities of the same one, whose security council is regulated, some changes will not be made in it in fairness for the sake

of precedents, adjustments, there were charters, but a long time ago, firstly, the 15 members of the security council that we have today. yes , it was far from always like that. uh, there were 15 of them. actually, it was only in 1965, on august 31 , that amendments came into force, as a result of which the number of security councils increased from 11 to 15. changes were made accordingly as a result. eh, these amendments and others articles that regulate the majority , which are required when making a decision of the un security council, well, plus there were other amendments, for example, amendments that expanded the number, and at first there were members of the economic and social council. increased from 18:27. these were amendments in the same sixty-fifth year, which came into force, and then in the seventy-third year there were more amendments in this regard,

there were 54 of them. plus, in the sixty-eighth year there were amendments to article 109 of the charter, but they did not relate to issues . uh, related the time and place of the state's general conference or review. it says that this should be determined with two-thirds of the votes of the general assembly and the votes of any nine before seven, because the number of members of sergei was increased as a result of the rights that members of the security council say. on the legal side, everything is clear, but if the political discussion on expansion has two dimensions, one is the discontent of the world masses that a narrow group of countries monopolized the privilege based on their victory in the first war half of the last century. the grandees can no longer simply shrug it off, but if the second specific acute desire of the western part

of the privileged to somehow get rid of russia in their circle is the loudest herald. naturally, ukraine should be excluded, and that’s all. the device provides for the possibility of expulsion from the organization, but, uh, cases of such expulsion. they are, well, a plant for one can say pathology, but exceptional, uh, only in the situation. if a member of an organization systematically violates the principles that are contained actually, i get tired. here he can be expelled by the general assembly upon recommendation, advice. danger, but you need to understand that since russia is permanent. eh, with a chip from the security council, even if such a question even hypothetically arises. she will, of course, veto. that is. uh, which according to the joint means that the decision is not made accordingly ah. well, it’s hard for me to imagine a situation where russia would vote

for its own exclusion. that’s why those scientists who, for example, studied this issue. they noted that, in theory, the charter should provide for a special procedure for expulsion and permanent members, but it does not provide for all states. from the point of view of international law, they are still obliged to fulfill it in good faith. that is, if they do something like this , it will be a violation of international law and an illegal action of one adoption is one thing to declare about something, but if this results in specific actions that contradict the charter. although this is the same statement from the state of a similar plan. sometimes they can consider a contradiction with international law. well, for example, there’s the principle of cooperation between states. yes, but if there are any other actions, then there is an obvious violation, of course, russia is conservative in its approach to international institutions and defends the letter of the law, the right to privileges our country won in the world war. well, respect for agreed races and

forever there is no significant part of the world, which we have come to call the world majority. wants change one way or another, it will happen, you have to be prepared for it, so that the order that will replace the outgoing one is based on rules that would suit us; however, when they do not suit the leading players, they do not last long. the term rules-based order itself appeared around the nineties; in essence, it is a world order in which the united states leads a coalition of western powers and establishes a character of international relations that is considered fair. even after the first world war , the versailles-washington system arose. it was dominated by great britain, france, and for the first time the united states, which could no longer remain aloof from global processes. american president woodrow wilson proposed his famous 14

points, which formed the basis of the versailles peace treaty. it was an idealistic attempt to carry over liberal principles. in the sphere of international relations and the first conceptual project that broke with the idea of ​​isolationism in the united states , an international organization was to become the guarantor of the new order. the league of nations, which was formed in 1919, has its charter. signed by 44 states. total time of existence 63 countries were members of the organization, there were two governing bodies. the assembly is an annual meeting of all members of the organization and the council, which acted on an almost constant basis for 26 years. it managed to hold 170 meetings. in addition, under the league of nations there were a number of international bodies responsible for disarmament , health, intellectual cooperation, the protection of the rights of refugees and the fight against slavery. germany and soviet russia

were initially not allowed. the league saw berlin officially join the organization only in '26, and moscow in '34. it is noteworthy that the united states also did not enter the league of nations. the american congress, in which the ideas of the monroe doctrine and self-isolation were still popular, did not allow president wilson to join the organization, despite good goals. the organization did not fulfill its purpose in the thirty-third year, germany japan announced its withdrawal from the league of nations italy followed their example in the thirty-seventh versailles-washington system collapsed with the beginning of world war ii war, the league of nations was liquidated in april 1946; its assets and liabilities were transferred to the un. if in the future there are still more or less neutral history textbooks that do not resemble the karabakh conflict, at the end

of the twentieth and beginning of the 21st century. throughout its entire duration, it will become a significant example of illustrating human tragedy for all participants and a textbook for studying the arrogance of the recklessness of fatal populism and the inability to overcome. geopolitical horn in the name of general well-being at different stages, a long drama. the listed qualities. were common to all involved, but historical conclusions. they write the winner. at least karabakh also showed this for the shelf life of the fruits of victory. it was an international review, goodbye.

let's translate from clerical to understandable , everything is not so scary if there are instructions. i've been dedicated to this show all my life. we expect to do it in 10 days. this will be a record on the edge of possibility. we are all with him because he is the only one at the maximum height. don’t go higher

. you’ll just fall like a stone down at the speed. behind with you , wars end, for the world to be lasting , we need people of strong character who are ready not only to stand up for their motherland, but also to crawl, jump and run. and the main thing is to win for it. there is such a job as being a defender. and when you become a professional. this becomes your life's work as a military matter. serve at the call of your heart, join your own.

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