[000:00:00;00] measures of departmental control have been organized, see what needs to be done additionally to strengthen the regulatory framework , in general there is a large complex of issues here, the fsb reported a major special operation in the zaporozhye region, as a result of which... three groups of ukrainian intelligence agents were detained, one during the arrest he resisted, was liquidated, according to the department's public relations center, these are citizens of ukraine and russia, they ran internet resources, a website and a telegram chat of the ukrainian media, which were used for collecting data on the psychological impact on residents of the region, they were persuaded to transmit data about the locations and movements of the russian military; during a search in the apartment of one of the suspects

, a homemade ... machine gun and a grenade were found, the detainees had already given confessions. well, now there is a live broadcast from the central bank. colleagues, good afternoon, i’m glad to see you all, we’re starting a press conference with bank of russia chairman elvira nabiulina, deputy chairman alexei zabotkin. and first the chairman will make a statement following the meeting of the board of directors. please. good afternoon. today we have decided to increase the key rate to 15% per annum. the tightening of monetary policy is already being transmitted to the economy. we see this in the growing attractiveness of savings and a slight cooling in lending. at the same time , the steady expansion of demand increasingly exceeds the possibility of increasing the supply of commodities

. as a result, prices are growing faster than we expected; an additional pro-inflationary factor on the forecast horizon is easing of fiscal policy, so greater rigidity of monetary policy is required. our policies will ensure more balanced credit growth, consistent with inflation returning to its target of around 4% next year. let me move on to the arguments for today's decision. first inflation: at a high rate. the september acceleration in inflation significantly exceeded our estimates, and high price pressure continues in october. even if we take one-off factors out of the equation, current price dynamics are at least twice the inflation target. all indicators of sustainable price pressure are above the target. an alarming signal is the price expectations of enterprises. they are close to

the maximum values ​​for the last year. several years, population inflation expectations decreased slightly in october, but they are still high. professional analysts predict inflation next year will be above targets, as follows from our macro forecast data. high inflation expectations in the economy also indicate insufficient rigidity of the current monetary conditions. although our decision is already being translated into the economy, current inflation. still largely shaped by lower interest rates in the first half of this year. let me remind you that for 10 months, until july, we kept the key rate at 7.5%. along with a stimulating fiscal policy, this made it possible to quickly return the economy to pre-crisis levels. but a further strong acceleration of inflation signaled that monetary

conditions in the economy. and in the middle of the year we began to raise the rate, however, due to long-term time lags, the effects of loose monetary policy continue to manifest themselves in prices now, just as the effects of tightening will fully manifest themselves in a few quarters. we have updated the inflation forecast for the next few years; the updated forecast takes into account the actual rise in prices, as well as the effect of increased government spending. in the new budget. this year prices will increase by 7-7.5%. next year, under the influence of monetary policy, inflation will return to the target and amount to 4-4.5%. then secure yourself at the level close to 4%. second is the economy. according to our estimates of current data on economic activity, gdp growth in the third quarter

was higher than expected. the main driver. investment demand emerged, which was largely fueled by budget spending, while the budget impulse was concentrated in the manufacturing industries , which are growing at the fastest pace, high domestic demand allowed companies to pass on rising costs to prices for consumers, as a result, company profits are close to record values ​​of the twenty-first of the year. the increase in companies' own funds, along with budget expenditures and credit growth, allowed businesses to expand investment plans. according to monitoring data of enterprises and companies in the last month. began to be even more optimistic about future investments in the expansion of production, even despite the increase in loan rates, however , a significant limiter for the expansion of production is the shortage of personnel, which

2/3 of the companies from our survey faced, this problem is especially significant in the manufacturing industry, in order to retain or attract personnel, companies raise salaries, after which inevitably again... due to the fact that growing demand cannot be immediately satisfied by expanding production, it does not lead to an increase in consumption, but only results in rising prices in order to prevent an inflationary spiral from unwinding, we it is necessary to maintain higher rates in the economy, taking into account the fact of gdp for the second quarter of current data for the third quarter, we have raised the economic growth forecast for this year to 2.2, 2.7%. the gdp forecast for the following years has not changed. now about how monetary

conditions are adjusted, a very common decision: deposits are adjusted most quickly. rising rates help offset the costs of inflation, so citizens’ interest in deposits has increased. in addition to the flow of funds. time deposits from current accounts, we note the return of previously withdrawn cash to banks. in the credit market, adjustment occurs at different speeds in different segments; according to current data, there are signs of a slowdown in the growth of unsecured consumer lending. mortgage continues to grow at a high rate, but this is influenced by preferential programs that are insensitive. key rate, that part of the mortgage portfolio that is formed on market conditions is already reacting to the tightening of policy. as for lending to enterprises, at the beginning of this month the annual growth of the portfolio

was 21.21. the volume of corporate lending is growing, despite the increase in rates, this is due to the company’s very high price expectations. because of which lending conditions are not felt as strict, then there are many companies that can take out loans in the expectation that further acceleration of inflation will devalue their debt. another factor in the growth of corporate credit is that some companies are willing to take out loans for short periods at higher rates, expecting payments on government contracts at the end of the year. more detailed information on monetary conditions is provided in the october report. regional economy, today's decision on the key rate will increase rates in the money market, resulting in money for short periods will turn out to be more expensive than long-term ones, this will strengthen the disinflationary effect of our policy.

a few words about the budget: in the next years its parameters will be much softer than what was included in the september forecast, due to a more stimulating budget space. for the growth of private credit becomes less, taking this into account, we have lowered the forecast for growth in lending to the economy for the next year by two percentage points, to 5-10%. since overall fiscal policy in the coming years will be more expansionary than previously expected, we raised our estimate of the neutral key rate to 6.7%. that is, other things being equal , we need a higher key rate to ensure price stability. let me turn to external conditions: the world economy continues to gradually slow down, while the situation in the middle east is a significant factor

of uncertainty, including from the point of view of the dynamics of energy prices. in the updated forecast, we slightly increased our estimate for oil prices. by the way, i note that we have moved on to publishing the oil price forecast. brands brand instead of the eurols brand. this will better reflect our vision of the global balance in the oil market, as well as compare our forecast with the price that is used for tax purposes. the reversal in the dynamics of the trade balance and the increase in the key rate in mid-august had a stabilizing effect on the ruble exchange rate. at the same time, the fluctuations observed at that time were largely associated with tax periods and individual large transactions of the company. we can only say what the contribution of measures for the mandatory sale of foreign currency earnings will be. when we get more complete information. but in general, in our opinion, restrictive measures can only work for a short period

of time, somewhat accelerating the influence of fundamental factors. in the future , the exchange rate will be affected by tightening monetary policy, which cools aggregate demand, including demand for imports in ruble terms. the exchange rate will also be affected by changes in prices and physical volumes of exports, and the dynamics of the trade balance are associated with them. in the updated payment forecast. we increased our export estimate due to increasing the forecast price for oil, in reducing the forecast for imports, we take into account the stabilization of its volumes and the reaction to the increase in the key rate. in general, the foreign trade surplus is expected to be slightly higher than in the september forecast. now about the risks, they are still significantly shifted towards pro-inflationary ones, the most important among them are... maintaining inflationary expectations

of the population's business at elevated levels, higher lending dynamics, increased overheating in the labor market and additional budget easing. the list of risks remains and a possible slowdown in the global economy, which could affect the exchange rate. disinflationary risks are less pronounced; these include an additional increase in prices for russian export goods and a faster cooling of lending. and in conclusion, about the prospects for our policy, the bank of russia has effective tools to reduce inflation to the target. at recent meetings, we raised the key rate by tangible steps, and we will be ready to do this again if we do not see signs of a sustainable slowdown in inflation and a cooling of inflationary pressures. expected. inflation has steadily deviated from 4% since 2021. such a long-term deviation

can lead to the unanchoring of inflation expectations and the loss of guidelines by economic agents. experience shows that in such conditions the period of maintaining high rates should be long. and this distinguishes the current situation from the other two - the episodes of strong rate hikes in 2014 and 2022. then, in addition to rising inflation, we observed significant risks to financial stability, largely related to external reasons. we had to take these risks react with a bet. once we managed to cope with these risks, we managed the key rate, concentrating on the task of reducing inflation. i would like to note that in 2016-2017, the disinflationary process was also helped by a contractionary budget policy. now the situation is fundamentally different. we are seeing inflation caused by an internal

imbalance between supply and demand, demand is growing, supply growth is limited, as a result, price growth is accelerating, while budget policy for the next 3 years remains stimulating, this means that monetary policy must be tighter in order to return inflation to 4%, in the updated forecast we have raised the trajectory... the average key rate for november-december this year will be 15 -15.2%, next year 12, 14.5% per annum, this rate trajectory will allow inflation to return to the target by the end of next year , and fix it at 4% in the future. thank you for your attention. your questions, don’t forget to introduce yourself, name your

publications, anastasia, first question, savelelyeva anastasia interfax, based on your statements, an increase in the trajectory of the key rate for the next 3 years, is it possible now to talk about possible decisions to reduce the key rate, when and under what conditions can you move to a reduction, the second question is what ... the softness of the budget policy in today's decision to increase the rate, is it possible to say that if the budget for the twenty-fourth year had remained within the parameters of the current budget for the twenty -twenty-fifth... then the rate would have been increased by only 100 basis points. concerning possible reduction of the key rate, then it will be possible to move on to it after we see a sustainable decrease in inflation and a decrease

in inflation in its stable components. according to our basic forecast, we see that this can happen, but of course, if there are deviations from the basic scenario and inflation risks materialize, we will take this into account in the trajectory of monetary policy, then it may be more stringent. when exactly we will be able to move to mitigation, we cannot say now, it will depend on the data that we will receive according to inflation, inflation expectations , and so on. for the delivery decision, this is a significant factor, we took it into account, but we did not calculate how much the rate could be raised or raised, because we consider all factors together, but the budget is a significant factor in our

decision today, thank you, colleagues, please, sergey, third row, arguments and facts, please tell me how the central bank plans to return inflation to the target of 4% - for food products, fuel and regulated tariffs, which are very weak react to an increase in the key rate, the second question: how do you look at the practice when people put their savings on deposit at new, already increased rates, then take out a preferential mortgage and expect to make money on the difference between rates on a further... increase in apartment prices, did the central bank expect such an effect from the rate increase? as for the first question, we have a key influence on all goods and services, uh, but there are indeed goods and services, the prices of which, the consumption of which do not depend on

the price, yes, including those that you called, then manufacturers and suppliers have more opportunities to raise prices. and with high inflation, with rapid growth in demand, prices for these goods can actually grow faster than the general price index. of course, with the help of the key rate we do not directly influence specific goods, neither cucumbers nor fuel, but we limit an increase in the general price level, and this means that, for example, with inflation of 4%, your expenses. per consumer basket on average and the average consumer basket grows on average by 4%. and if in this basket the prices for essential goods and services that you cannot refuse rise faster, then the demand for other goods will decrease, and this

means that the prices for other goods will rise less. indexation of tariffs; the key rate also affects the indexation of tariffs. inflation, we influence inflation with a key rate, and accordingly, if the general price index is lower, then the indexation of tariffs may be lower, in order, of course, to limit the rise in prices for specific goods, then for this probably, it is necessary for the government... it takes temporary measures and regulates the situation with the demand for proposals in specific markets, as there were, for example, restrictions on the export of gasoline and diesel fuel in september, but in our opinion, of course

, these are administrative, administrative measures, they can only work in the short term, if in the long term, then the production of such goods will not... this can lead, on the contrary, to the emergence of a deficit there, as for the situation with mortgages, but in a situation where there is preferential programs with such wide benefits, this is quite logical, rational behavior, when you can get a soft loan at a fixed rate, keep your savings in a bank at a high rate, i must say that such... there is no mass practice, but the situation cannot but worry us , it allows people with savings to earn money on preferential loans, that is, in fact ... the source of this income is taxpayers’ money, which flows to the benefit of those who have savings, who

can, at a higher rate, - their keep savings, well, those people who really need apartments suffer, because massive preferential programs increase real estate prices, and accordingly they have to take out large loans, and you know that our housing prices have increased significantly, 90% . for 3 years is significantly higher than inflation and higher than income, and this can cover the positive effects of preferential mortgages , but preferential programs, therefore, on a broad front, in our opinion, are appropriate only as anti-crisis measures, and uh, as they as this situation you are talking about collapses, the unfair situation will go away. thank you. next question online, denis yalakhovsky, compound interest project, please, good afternoon, two

questions, the bank of russia supported the decree introducing for 6 months the mandatory sale of foreign currency earnings by exporters, although before this measure, please excuse me, it’s very quiet, practically inaudible, let’s i’ll try to be louder, the bank of russia supported the decree on the introduction of mandatory sales to exporters and foreign exchange earnings, although i hadn’t considered this before... why did the position of the central bank change and what should happen for the central bank to support the extension of this hypothetical extension of the validity of this decree in april 24, this is the first question, the second is loans to banks, bankers for almost 29 rubles, that is, about half of portfolios were issued at floating rates, and a complex question in this regard is how do you feel about the fact that banks actually load their borrowers with a percentage of risk, whether due to an increase in the key rate,

the same problem with non-payments could now arise, as it was, for example, with foreign currency loans in 2008, and in general to what extent the increase in the share of loans at floating rates for legal entities limits or helps the bank of russia manage the level of demand in the economy, thank you, regarding efficiency, currency restrictions, our position has not changed here, we believe that such restrictions, if c , can work in the short term, in the short term, that the exchange rate is formed under the influence of fundamental factors, exports, imports, attractiveness, national currency as means of savings, and now this measure is temporary, applies to large exporters, to large exporters, and we and the government will monitor how it operates in order to assess its effects, short-term effects may be

associated with a decrease in volatility, short-term volatility in the foreign exchange market, due to the fact that turnover is increasing, because we have companies that are exporters, even if they return and sell more export revenue, although sales volumes remain quite high, the share of sales from foreign currency earnings, but they can also buy it back, this increases turnover, well, this can have an indirect impact on short-term volatility, this can be affected, as for floating rates, let me remind you that in retail loans there is practically none, in corporate loans there is, and this is, in principle, global practice, because it is believed that legal entities, in principle, can... risks, interest rate risks always exist, or they remain with the bank when a company takes out

a loan at a fixed rate, and this the bank transfers the interest risk into an increase in the rate on a loan with a fixed rate, that is, then it becomes more expensive, precisely because the bank bears this interest risk, or the borrower takes it, respectively, this interest risk, then from the beginning there may be and less, yes, but the interest rate risk is on the borrowers , so we don’t see a situation like it was with foreign currency mortgage loans , because then foreign currency mortgage loans were taken out by citizens who were not able to assess these risks of floating rates, and we in general, we are in favor of strict regulation of floating rates for individuals, as for legal entities, we don’t

see it now... these loans will continue to be serviced, yes alexey barivich, please, can i also add, this is the fundamental difference between the history of foreign currency loans and the history of foreign currency mortgages with floating rates, everyone should understand, this follows from our forecast, from the logic of monetary policy, that the period of high interest rates is... temporary, yes, it will now have a longer, longer duration than in the fifteenth year or in the twenty-second, but still , as inflation returns to four%, the key rate will return to its neutral range, as we see in the forecast, accordingly, these are the increased level of interest payments on floating

rates - this is what will be in effect there for, well, comparatively... not a long period of time in and when the exchange rate changed to a fundamentally new level and the rate never returned to the same level in which people they took out their foreign currency loans; their debt burden increased forever and the volume of their payments in rubles increased forever; this , in fact, is the difference between the situation with floating rates and a foreign currency mortgage. thank you, and colleagues, please, margarita, first row, no, margarita, it’s me , hello, sorry, reshpilevsky, tas agency, please tell me whether the decision to raise the rate by 2% points was the toughest and how broad was the consensus? the average rate for this year is up to 15.2,

does this mean that by the end of the year we still we can see one increase, thank you, we discussed three solution options, the option of maintaining the rate was not discussed, the option of maintaining the rate was not discussed, the options were discussed , raising the rate by one percentage point, by one and a half to two percentage points, but the overwhelming majority agreed, and even in the process discussion, i was inclined to rate by two percentage points, taking into account the analysis that i talked about about inflation risks, and realized risks and future ones about inflation risks, as for this year, we gave a forecast of the key rate, until the end of this year, it assumes that we have one meeting left, and on the key rate, it assumes both the possibility of maintaining the rate and the possibility of raising it.

thank you, colleagues, dmitry, please, once again. dmitry putin commerce, we will once again revise the forecast, two external variables that have changed, you named, are the change in the volume of the budget stimulus and the change in oil prices according to the forecast. are there any other factors that make you, made you reconsider? forecasts that will be comparable in weight to these? uh, yes, we did take it into account; these are significant factors, especially the first one you mentioned, about the budget stimulus. but there are other factors, here is the fact of the third quarter of this year in terms of actual inflation, it also turned out that it was higher, this means that the gap between supply and demand is higher than we estimated before, this was also a significant factor. alexey borisovich, if you want, add, expand this a little, if

you look at the operational data on economy for... the third quarter, inflation, credit growth rates, all these values, they were higher at the end of the third quarter than we expected in july and even than what was expected in the april forecast update, that is, the third quarter demonstrated more rapid dynamics that are associated with demand dynamics, and yes, accordingly, in order to uh return the economy to a trajectory of sustainable, balanced growth. and inflation to the target of 4% within the same time frame requires a more stringent monetary policy, that is there, in other words, it shifted, well , the starting conditions of the forecast shifted, and this affected the entire trajectory, thank you, the next question is online, marina ivanova, vostok teleinform news agency,