life of the national project demography, so that by 2030 this share will increase to 70%. march 22 is a memorable date in the military history of russia. march 22, 1915, capture of the przemysl fortress by russian troops. russian troops took the largest austro-hungarian fortress of przemysl, now przemysl in poland. the siege lasted almost 6 months and became the largest during the first world war. exhausted austrian and hungarian troops undermined their military supplies. destroyed the regimental banners and capitulated. nine generals were captured by the russians and 117.00 soldiers of the austro-hungarian army. let's return to the news review. vladimir putin convened a meeting of the security council to discuss measures to combat the spread of neo-nazism. as the first question we will consider today.

i won’t go into details, we are aware that these are today’s events. let's start working. the russian military launched a massive blow to combat the spread of neo-nazist ideas, to the energy and industrial infrastructure of ukraine, and to railway junctions this and how important it is in the context of a warehouse with an enemy arsenal, a decision-making center of the armed forces and places of concentration of ukrainian and foreign fighters. this was reported by the ministry of defense. thanks to the attacks of our military, it was possible to undermine the work of enterprises repairing and producing weapons and ammunition for the needs of the ukrainian army. in addition, foreign military equipment from nato allies was destroyed and the transfer of reserves was disrupted. in total, from march 16 to march 22 , 49 so-called retaliation strikes were carried out. they became a response to the shelling of the border zones in an attempt to break into our territory.

time, this will allow inflation to return to 4.4.5% by the end of this year and fix it to the target in the future. let me move on to the arguments for today's decision. the first is inflation. according to our estimates, since the beginning of the year, the sustainable rate of current price growth is in the range of 6-7% in annual terms. these are no longer double-digit numbers, like in the fall, but still.

services grew faster than the general price index, for example, for household and medical services, as well as for transport. usually increased price dynamics in services is one of the indicators of high demand. in the first weeks of march, price growth is reported to have slowed again, but these data are based on a truncated sample. there are no goods and services that made a significant contribution to inflation in the winter months.

economy. after a slight slowdown at the end of last year, the growth of economic activity, according to our estimates, has accelerated again, primarily in the household consumption segment. increased consumer demand is signaled by the growth of retail trade. consumer sentiment is near historical highs. citizens' interest in large purchases has been growing since december. in past periods of significant tightening of monetary policy, we... did not

observe this. investment activity is at a record level, although there are no quarterly data yet, this can be judged by indirect indicators. this strong result is ensured by the fact that the economy actually fully utilizes both production capacity and labor resources. at the end of last year, according to polls, the utilization rate of production lines reached a historical maximum of 81%. this

trend has affected many regions. you can read more about the state of production capacity in the march issue of regional economics. a serious limitation for further production growth remains the shortage of personnel. unemployment fell to a seasonally adjusted 2.7% in january. labor market tensions have resumed growth. according to surveys of enterprises, the greatest deterioration in the situation with personnel is in metallurgy, pharmaceuticals, chemical industry and mining. in such conditions , competition between wage companies is growing. this, as a rule, does not lead to a significant increase in the volume of goods and services, but results in an increase in prices. overall, the gap between supply and demand remains. the economy is growing above potential, as evidenced by persistently elevated inflation pressures. third, monetary conditions

continue to tighten. loan and deposit rates are rising. this reflects markets adjusting to decisions already made. at the key rate, ofz yield also increased by about one percentage point since the last meeting, partly due to expectations of longer -term tight monetary conditions, but expectations on fiscal policy have a certain impact on ofzs. lending activity is slowing, but unevenly. on the one hand, corporate lending grew at a moderate pace in the first months of the year. along with tight monetary conditions, this may be due to the advance payment of government contracts. mortgage issuance is slightly lower than last year. with on the other hand, the growth rate of the retail loan portfolio, although it has slowed down

compared to the autumn figures, is still high. the savings rate also remains high. the dynamics of deposits is significantly ahead of the seasonal norm. this is largely due to income growth; now we are observing a rather unusual situation where a strong increase in savings is accompanied by active consumption. in the future, we expect that the accumulated effect of tightening monetary conditions will motivate people to save even more, and this will contribute to a more pronounced slowdown in inflation. let me move on to external conditions: the situation. the global economy continued to improve, both in the service sector and in industry, as a result, prices on commodity markets began to rise, which will support russian exports. in general, the balance of payments is in line with our forecast. after a decline at the beginning of the year

, exports are recovering thanks to rising oil prices, while secondary sanctions are holding back the process. import dynamics on...

thank you for your attention, colleagues, please

your questions, please, do not forget to introduce yourself, name your publication, tatyana, please, first question, second row, hello, tatyana chubasova, interfax agency, the tone of the statement as a whole remained unchanged, does it follow from this that the most likely reduction in the key rate, beginning decline in the second half of the year? or there is a chance that this will happen, say, in april based on the results of the board of directors. and the second question is related to the situation on the fuel market, which is now under the influence of unpredictable factors. how much will this situation affect inflation, inflation expectations and, accordingly, the monetary policy of the central bank in the coming months. thank you. thank you, we really discussed the downward trajectory of the key rate.

inflation forecasts are a very important set of factors; we do not yet see that the situation on the fuel market can have a significant impact on our assessment of the inflation forecast. colleagues, please, masha, first row, informationagentstas, maria stepanova, i have a few questions, first, which one, which ones were the options considered by the board of directors today? second rate, the european commission proposed using the proceeds from the frozen assets of the central bank to help ukraine,

if this is supported, do the bank of russia have any tools to somehow respond to this, and what are these tools, thank you, thank you, during our discussion, a broad consensus emerged regarding the need to maintain the rate. therefore, we discussed different options, but also the majority of almost the consensus was

in favor of maintaining the current neutral signal at the key rate, as for the actions of the european union on frozen assets, well , decisions will be made, and we will take appropriate measures in order to protect our interests, the next question: online from ekaterina titova online portal bankierros.ru, nizhny novgorod. some experts criticize the increase in the key rate, justifying this by the fact that... a high rate does not fight inflation, it only provokes cost inflation, and also slows down the economy and interferes with the development of industry, is this true, when will a reduction be possible? key rate, the second question is whether the central bank will restrain the fall of the ruble against the dollar, what measures are being used for this now, are there plans to introduce new ones?

concerning? are included in long-term rates, therefore , with high inflation there cannot be available loans, especially long-term ones, and let me remind you once again that credit is still not the main source of financing investments throughout the world, the main source is own funds, reinvestment of profits, credit - it's just extra

a source for growth, and there are many companies that...

can encourage us to take certain actions, if we see that this factor is working or contrary to our goal of achieving inflation, we also influence the ruble exchange rate through the key rate, increasing the key rate, it just increases the attractiveness of saving in rubles,

restraining excessive demand for imports, thereby reducing pressure. rather than at any particular rate, the rate will be what it should be to be consistent with an inflation target of around 4% end of the year, it may be different for different combinations in foreign trade, and as we have said more than once, monetary policy

that ensures price stability, it simultaneously ensures stabilization of the exchange rate. colleagues, please, masha, third row, felyushina maria bitkogan, is the bank of russia ready for possible sanctions against the musex exchange and ncc, and how will foreign exchange trading be organized in the event of such sanctions? thank you. of course we are. thank you, colleagues, please, sergey, bolotov

sergey, arguments and facts: tell me, please, does the central bank spend reserves to maintain the ruble exchange rate, and if it does, how does this affect the trajectory of the key rate ? the second question is, from the point of view of the bank of russia, what does it look like... is this a disinflationary or proinflationary factor for your forecasts? thank you. no, we are not spending reserves to maintain the course. this, by the way, can be seen from the statistics of gold and foreign exchange reserves. all changes in gold and foreign exchange reserves are dictated.

new renewable ones, how will the expected increase in government spending affect inflation? thank you,

thank you for the question, indeed, fiscal policy, the trajectory of normalization of fiscal policy influences our decision on the key rate, but here we cannot simply consider the issue from the side of additional expenses. komsomol member the question is this: the bank of russia left unchanged the inflation forecast for the rest of the year at 4-4.5%. at the same time, the slowdown

that rossta noted by march 18 compared to what was by march 11 was small, there was 7.71 and it was 7.73. and given that, i would like to know on the basis of what factors the bank of russia continues. this forecast, given that on july 1 we are planning to increase tariffs for housing and communal services, in addition, the russian economy is subject to the arrival of black swans, such as the exit from troy to the third refinery, so we don’t know yet what kind of surprise, please, thank you very much, well, as for, i’ll start with annual inflation, the figures you mentioned, i want to especially note that annual inflation is still a lagging indicator, that is, it shows inflation. for the previous 12 months, and when making decisions we pay more attention to the current inflation pressure, current inflation

, including using indicators cleared of seasonality, stable inflation, stable indicators, and we believe that our monetary policy should really lead to inflation being close to the target of 4-4% by the end of the year . from this point of view, we evaluate certain steps that are necessary from the point of view of monetary policy.

but in general, here is the policy, monetary policy, which is now creating tight monetary conditions, it works for disinflation, as for black swans, they can always happen, but we have a basic forecast, yes, if there are any risks, shocks, by the way, we always talk about risks, there may be both, of course, depending based on the significance of such unexpected events, we will look at what solutions are needed. will accept, yes, alexey borisovich, please add, yes, maybe, regarding annual inflation, now the annual inflation mainly includes the rate of price growth of the twenty- third year, in particular the high rate price growth, very high rates of price growth , which were from july to november last year, when we are in december of the twenty-fourth year, these growth rates will not be reflected in annual inflation, the annual inflation will only increase in value from january to december 24.

russians have few options left for this; under these conditions, has the central bank considered not revoking the license, the option of revoking the license, but reorganization. and the second question, over the last month the central bank revoked the licenses of three banks, and before that it did not revoke the licenses for a year and a half. the media write that almost the end of the moratorium on revocation of licenses was announced, was there such a moratorium and should

we expect new reviews? thank you. the issue of financial recovery of credit institutions is considered primarily when it comes to significant credit institutions that are experiencing problems with financial stability, they have a lack of capital, problems with solvency, the bank of russia, when it revoked the license of kievbank, it did not revoke it for a reason.

and the revocation of the license, and our work here is targeted, and the revocation of the license is real an extreme measure, which is preceded by systematic work, we also issue instructions, so this is a targeted solution, we closely monitor, supervise the situation in specific banks, there was no moratorium, but... well, but if situations happen when the bank does not correct its position, either it is due to insufficient capital, or such a massive large-scale hobby for a dubious operation, we make these decisions, as for new reviews - we do not make forecasts on reviews, these are the results really supervisory work. thanks,

next question. from kursk from anna korshinova newspaper for each other, please.