sessions, in total, if you count the number of events over 4 days, then there are about 400 of them . there are not only a large number of events inside russian ones, there are also external ones, for example, 12 business dialogues - this is a traditional format for the tfm, when russia and the association, or continents entire countries, for example russia, africa, or large countries, russia, india, china, they meet with each other to establish new connections and, of course, to discuss current issues. among the current issues. which have been talked about a lot here, of course, problems energy sector, and one of the discussions, for example, about rosneft, was devoted precisely to this. thank you guys, good morning, dear ladies, gentlemen, colleagues, friends, we are starting work on the energy panel on the twenty-seventh, and...

by burning fossil fuels, coal, oil, petroleum products, gas, but is this really so, let's try to figure it out. the climate cycles of the earth develop according to objective laws inherent in any cosmic body, which is influenced by such basic factors as the state of the atmosphere, solar activity, the distance from it to the earth's orbit, the angle of inclination of the position of other planets relative to our planet earth. much, much more.

climate changes on the planet occur , among other things, as a result of fundamental natural phenomena that are incomparable in scale to the influence of the anthropogenic factor. such phenomena include, in particular , supervolcanoes, during the eruption of which the volume of lava ash emissions exceeds 1. kilometers. such cataclysms can not only radically change the landscape, but also provoke sudden cold snaps.

usa, and the last known eruption of the taupo super-vykanas occurred in new zealand about 25 thousand years ago, about 2.5 million years ago, the earth entered a new climate regime, a series of successive ice ages. according to scientists, during this time there were from 40 to 50 separate periods of glaciation. each time they became longer and colder. their periodicity and scale are determined by the characteristics of our world and the influence of gravity of other planets in the solar system. climate on the earth is transformed, including under the influence of changes in the shape of the orbit, as well as inclinations of the direction of the rotation axis, which are subject to cyclic changes, the so -called melankovitch cycle. it must be recognized that the connection between emissions and climate change requires an objective one.

air has never been constant, there have been nine warming periods since the end of the last ice age, and during seven of them the temperature was higher than today. proponents of the theory of the anthropogenic factor present us with the energy transition as the illusion of saving the world. now that we have already accumulated some experience in implementing the energy transition, it is clear that neither its goal nor the preparation for it have been worked out in accordance with the needs of humanity, such as infrastructure, financing, provision of raw materials, and the availability of appropriate technologies. i would like to remind you that back in 1976, the future nobel prize laureate in physics, academician kopitsa, based on basic physical principles, namely the law of conservation of energy, predicted the possibility global energy crisis in energy production due to the insufficient

efficiency of all types of alternative energy. as kopitsa argued, the key characteristic of any type of energy is the density of its energy flow. according to this indicator, such types of fossil fuels as oil provide 195 watts per square meter gas 482 watts per square meter is far ahead of solar and wind energy, from which, among other disadvantages, they have an uneven or, to put it in more scientific language, stochastic nature of generation according to currently known research, the most promising type of fuel is considered to be hydrogen, but there are no commercially feasible production technologies, logistics, or, most importantly, sales markets for it. it is also necessary to take into account the still low efficiency, due to the fact that during the production of hydrogen

, the energy consumption spent to perform electrolysis turns out to be greater than the amount of energy obtained at the output. thus, alternative energy sources cannot yet ensure reliability of supply, nor their optimal. technical and economic characteristics, despite the fact that over the past two decades about 10 trillion us dollars have been invested around the world in the energy transition, alternative energy sources have not been able to replace traditional fuels, today wind solar energy provides less than 5% of global output energy, and the share of electric vehicles is about 3%. over the same period of time, consumption of oil, gas, coal...

by 2030 to achieve the goals of the paris agreement, global spending on climate change would be about $9 trillion a year, five times what was spent in 2023, a figure equal to almost 10% of global gdp and more than three times the annual investment in global climate change. energy, it is also equal to the combined gdp of france, great britain and italy, in total... more than $270 trillion of investment will be needed to achieve the goals of the paris agreement by 2050. it is clear that climate travel will require infrastructure a new type, as had happened many times before, when in the 19th century, to increase

coal production, huge investments in mines, canals, and railways were required; for the development of the oil industry in the 20th century , clusters of wells were needed. wires, oil refineries, and the generation of electricity required the construction of power plants and the development of a complex system of power transmission networks. the idea of ​​the energy transition, and the regulation applicable to it, is aimed at strengthening the unipolar structure of the world order, based on control over financial infrastructure, technology and logistics. this concept of energy transition is based on discrimination against the entire world. even the interests of allies can be sacrificed at any moment. this was especially evident during the implementation of the project to save europe from its imaginary dependence on russian energy resources. essentially, having sacrificed its energy security, the european union also

abandoned its sovereignty, reducing purchases of russian energy resources from 21 to 23, the european union spent more than $630 billion on gas imports from other countries. this the value is comparable to europe’s total gas expenditures over the previous eight years, and is close to european investments in green energy for the same period of time, comparable to the orp. and 32% of german enterprises are already planning to move their production capacity abroad, despite government subsidies and gas prices, households in europe have almost doubled from 2021 to 2023, high

energy costs are forcing european households to reduce gas consumption on an unprecedented scale, as a result price shock, demand for gas in the residential and commercial sectors of europe fell by more than 20% over the past two years and continued to fall this year, as a result of which , for the first time in many decades, europe is faced with a new one. was 85% over the same period, during the same time the average per capita income

of the european union countries fell in relation to most north american states ; it is now 52% lower than the us average. if this trend continues, then by 2035 the grp per capita gap between the us and eu will be fivefold, that is, the same as between japan and ecuador today. and in relation they develop.

as a result of this policy, energy resources have become the leading us export. in its desire to control the global energy market, the united states, in addition to sanctions, uses other available tools, for example, iraq, being the second largest producer, an opec member and one of the founders. organizations lost the ability to independently manage their finances after the us invasion in 2003, since then

since then, this country’s revenues from oil exports, which form up to 95% of the budget, go to a special account at the federal reserve bank of new york, which is a branch of the us federal reserve. this gives the us administration complete control over iraq's financial system. as for russia, us assistant secretary of state jeffrey paeth. announced the white house's plans to reduce revenues from our country. in essence, this means ousting seaborne exports of russian oil from the world market. a number of oil producers are already preparing for in this scenario, production capacity is being increased. we will return to these phantom barrels later. unilateral actions of the american regulator lead to volatility and unpredictability of the energy market. this forces each market player to act in their own way.

and the growth of production remains behind the scenes, since it requires capital expenditures, which must be secured by high prices. the volume of acquisition deals in the us gas industry last year reached $200 billion. over the past two years, the five largest western oil and gas companies spent a record $220 billion on payments to their shareholders, which was 30% more than their investments during

the same period. at the same time , we are observing how the countries of the persian. they are also actively increasing available production capacity, establishing distribution channels, and investing in assets in consumer countries. four key opec countries, saudi arabia, the united arab emirates, kuwait, and iraq, already have significant free production capacity, about 5.6 million barrels per day, which is equivalent to 13% current production custodians. some time ago, these countries announced plans to further increase capacity.

this is shown by market quotes that have gone down after the recent decision of ministers in the participating countries. this market reaction is based on the entire set of influencing factors. it can be assumed that volatility will increase due to the uncertainty surrounding the prospect of the us presidential election. where the pre-election mood depends, among other things, on the increase in the cost of one gallon of gasoline. average price now is 3.6 in the event of a victory of a certain candidate in the upcoming elections, the emerging risks give reason to assume the possible existence of a plan in the event of a special period for each major participant. thus, exsan completes its

merger deal with the pioneer, with hes, opec already. effective and will become a historic event in the global oil industry. the budgets of most countries participating in the trusteeship are able to withstand a possible reduction in oil prices, which may be partial or complete. compensated by increased supplies. theoretically, even for the russian oil industry, a price reduction could mean the possibility of lifting all restrictions on the price ceiling, and the revenue side of the approved federal budget is based on $60 per barrel. under these conditions , the possibility of a prompt response from opec to the emergence of new impact factors

will be of fundamental importance for stabilizing world markets. us financial system. is also an active instrument of unfair competition. financial restrictions extend to the whole world, since the american financial system is the basis of the global financial infrastructure. it is used as one of the instruments of illegal influence, violating the foundations of the brattenwood monetary system, in which the dollar should play the role of the world reserve currency and the main means of payment. in recent years , the use of the dollar as a

the share of gold and foreign exchange reserves has almost doubled over the past 10 years, in addition to the increase in the share of gold in the reserves of developing countries, leads to the fact that gold reserves are also being withdrawn from storage facilities in the usa and great britain, in particular, the reserve bank of india has withdrawn from the bank of england more than 100 tons of gold, a quarter of its reserves stored abroad; a similar decision to repatriate gold reserves has been made by a number of countries such as saudi arabia, nigeria, south africa, egypt and... at the same time , over the past 15 years, the share of developing countries among foreign holders of us government bonds has decreased from 51% to 28%. there is also a need to look for alternatives dollar in international trade, in relation to which many of the generally accepted economic theories are already losing relevance. according to karl

marx’s formula, commodity, money, commodity, money are the product of commodity circulation, but now we see that money no longer fully fulfills its main function as a payment mechanism. milton fredman’s theory, according to which money is not only a tool, also periodically fails. account, but have an independent value expressed in the attraction rate, we see how the political system uses money as a tool of manipulation. the growth of us government debt is another important factor in undermining confidence in the dollar and transferring problems from the financial sector to the energy market and the rest of the world. over the past 20 years, the us has aggressively used the dollar's special status to finance massive borrowing. as a result of this policy. last year , the ratio of us government debt to gdp came close to 100%. to combat the liquidity bubble, the us federal reserve was forced to raise

interest rates from near zero to 5.5% in record time. so far we have not seen any real steps to limit the growth of public debt; on the contrary, now the united states continues to increase its debt at a record pace, by $1 trillion every 100 days. percentage. last year, the united states' total social security and health care obligations exceeded $250 trillion, of which more than $70 trillion was unfunded by future income. in a high-stakes environment, the us budget deficit is already 9% of gdp, which is four times the average over the past 80 years. history tells us what can happen to the currency of a country whose debt is constantly growing. before world war ii, the british pound was the world's reserve

currency, but the increase in uk government debt to 130% of gdp was one of the factors that ended the pound's dominance in the world. the use of a technology access ban is another sanctions barrier. the latest drinking example of this is the us introduction of the barrage. cost their allies. approximate the cost of abandoning chinese components when deploying a 5g network in the uk alone exceeds $5 billion. for germany this

figure is much higher. europeans are already noticing that the climate policies of their countries are hitting their own pockets, causing rising prices for energy resources, real estate, transport and food. as a result, a european bill for the green agenda is coming soon. will exceed half a trillion euros, and this is far from a final figure. according to the german chamber of commerce and industry, the management of more than half of german enterprises have a negative attitude towards transitions. some eu countries such as germany, france, belgium, sweden and others are already ready to reconsider their approach. and the world bank, in its recent report , moved the deadline for achieving green transition goals by 10 years forward to 2060. we are confident that the goals. emissions will be revised several times, so the shiel company abandoned the goal of reducing emissions by 45% by 2035, and plans to reduce

personnel in departments involved in combating climate change. some years ago, bp was a pioneer of the green transition, but this bet did not work; the market did not appreciate the change in strategy. since the announcement of the new strategy for achieving carbon neutrality in 2020, the indicators.

application of his investments, he is also actively investing in the american military-industrial complex, his investments in the five largest defense industry companies alone exceed the $20 billion originally earmarked for the green transition. the energy transition must be balanced and aimed at satisfying the interests of the majority, which will ensure an increase in energy consumption in the coming years, that is, in developing countries, because it is the developed countries that represent. today , a minority of the world's population have made the greatest contribution to the climate crisis, here are just a few facts: developed countries account for 65% of the total emissions produced over the past 200 years. the richest 10% of the world's population is responsible for half of all co2 emissions, the richest 1% of the world's population accounts for twice as much carbon dioxide emissions as the poorest 50%. and all african

continent... produces less than 4% of the world's emissions. to achieve energy security, it is necessary to ensure the sufficiency, availability and reliability of energy sources. after all, today consumers are concerned not only with emissions, but also with the uninterrupted supply of energy from new sources, as well as with the reliability and ease of use of new technologies. unfortunately, the green transition strategy as it stands today does not take these needs into account. an example is electric vehicles. obviously, contrary to optimistic according to forecasts, they are not a panacea for all environmental problems. demand for electric vehicles is slowing around the world, despite unprecedented government efforts to support the industry. the review of electric vehicle subsidy policies demonstrates the lack of planning and haste with which western countries initially approached transport electrification. after

several years. ago they managed to attract buyers with high subsidies, now the governments of western countries are planning to introduce taxes on electric cars to shut up the resulting holes in the budget. according to the international energy agency, by 2035, the transition to electric vehicles could lead to a shortfall of $110 billion in taxes on motor fuels, which are used to maintain roads and improve transport infrastructure. to compensate for the shortfall in budget revenues, a number of countries are using their budgets. including the uk, new zealand, israel, most north american states already impose taxes on electric and hybrid vehicles. germany recently announced termination of benefits and accelerated elimination of subsidies. as subsidies are reduced, it becomes clear that even in rich western countries, buyers are not willing to overpay for an electric car. in addition to the high price, there are a number of issues without solving which the widespread introduction

of electric vehicles is impossible. this is not enough. approach, the underdevelopment of an enviable infrastructure, the need to recycle batteries, the shortage of critical essential metals , the impact of their extraction on the environment, problems with road safety and much more another, in particular, studies show that the number of failures at charging stations in the us has increased by 50% in 2 years, and every fifth attempt to charge a car ends in failure, with regard to safety, according to recent studies, hybrids and electric vehicles are two to three times are more likely to hit pedestrians than cars with internal combustion engines. over the past 10 years , western tech giants have put a lot of effort into demonizing fossil fuels, shutting down power plants, ensuring reliable supplies of electricity and popularization...