and now footage from the government house. good afternoon, dear colleagues. we visited uzbekistan on an official trip. our countries are reliable allies and partners. we continue to build up cooperation even in the face of difficult external conditions. the fifth meeting of the joint commission at the level of heads of government was held in tashkent. we examined in detail how the decisions taken by our presidents are being implemented and discussed a wide range of issues of practical cooperation in... trade and economic,

investment, technical, cultural and humanitarian, in educational activities, as well as the development of our interregional ties, our regions directly establish ties with uzbekistan and work there quite actively, confirmed their determination to further advance major joint projects, primarily in industry, transport, energy, in the field of scientific research in agriculture in a number of other important areas. it is important to fully realize the great potential of mutually beneficial russian-uzbek cooperation in based on the tradition of friendship, good neighborliness , mutual respect, to jointly create opportunities for economic growth, improving the quality of life of citizens of our countries, the request of the vice-premier, heads of federal government bodies, ministers in supervised areas to ensure the implementation of outstanding agreements. dear colleagues, now the active phase of preparation is underway.

budget forecast for the long-term period, previously it was submitted for consideration to the cabinet of ministers, only after the approval of the main financial document of the country, this was in december, at the beginning of january, a decision was made to reduce the terms of its development, now it must be submitted before november 15 of the current year, the corresponding government decree has been signed, this is necessary in order to ensure the balance of the budget system, namely in the long term to approve national projects. state programs for the period of their validity, well, from the new year to begin their implementation, which will accelerate the development of our economy. now to today's agenda: support our defenders in the framework of a special military operation, one of the most important priorities of the government, a number of measures have already been adopted, we will supplement this list with two more decisions: the list of grounds for terminating obligations under a credit...

agreements between a bank and a serviceman and his spouse will be expanded, and those who received a state award, or who, having completed tasks during a special military operation, were discharged from military service, will be able to pay off their debt. in relation to them, debt collection to organizations will also be cancelled fuel and energy complex and housing and utilities, that is, for overdue payments for water, heat, gas supply, and electricity. at the same time , we certainly hope that our colleagues from the state duma will be able to promptly consider it. today, we will also discuss a whole block of issues on helping the regions and their residents. on the instructions of the head of state , this week , an additional 3 billion rubles were allocated to the kurdish region so that people could buy the most essential things that they had lost. we will also consider question. providing another 1 billion rubles

for a one-time payment to citizens affected by military actions in the region. in total , more than 8 billion rubles have already been sent to kursk residents for urgent needs. now the region is receiving support from all corners of our large country in order to overcome the difficult situation and return to normal life as quickly as possible. another question: in some russian regions this year , snowfalls have caused record flooding, which led to breakthroughs of dams and water protection structures. in such a situation the government promptly provided the necessary funds to people and other assistance and also, on the instructions of the president, increased by one and a half times the amount of payments to citizens who faced the consequences of emergency situations. we will additionally send over 3 billion rubles to those affected by the spring flood in the orenburg region.

these resources will be intended for those who previously received funding under the old rules. thus, in total, about 9 billion rubles have been allocated from the federal budget to residents of the orenburg region for compensation losses. from the flood, now it is very important to help people to compensate for the damage that was caused by the natural disaster. well, now on our channel there is a broadcast, the chairman of the bank of russia elvira nabeulina comments on the decision on the key rate and answers questions about the state of the economy. then monetary conditions should be more stringent. we will have to additionally adjust demand to the limited supply of goods and services. monetary conditions from the last meeting.

it is important that more are needed to reduce inflation moderate rates of credit in general. i will move on to external conditions: global economic growth is slowing down, which is basically in line with our forecast, this is happening primarily due to industry, while

the services sector feels more confident. in general, the structure of global demand is becoming less energy-intensive. this may limit demand for our export goods. the current decline in oil prices is associated both with the structure of global economic growth and with expectations of its further slowdown. for russia, these trends in the oil market are inflationary. the decline in prices for key russian goods led to a slight reduction in exports in july-august, since imports remained at the same level, the balance of foreign trade as a whole decreased. problems with cross-border settlements at ... remain, which, along with the key rate, is probably holding back the growth rate of imports in the context of high domestic demand. next, i will focus on the risks for the baseline forecast. the main domestic risk is the exhaustion

of available production capacity and labor force. in such a situation, any additional stimulation of demand will lead exclusively to price growth. without production growth. in addition, risks from inflationary expectations remain, which may remain high for a long time. finally, among the pro-inflationary risks remains a possible increase in geopolitical pressure. also, a stronger slowdown in the world's largest economies may lead to a drop in demand for raw materials, which in turn will put pressure on russian exports and through it to the ruble. important.

on the forecast horizon , disinflationary factors may also work.

masha, please, and hello,

news agencies, maria stepanova, i have several questions, the first is about the options that were considered today, was maintaining the rate considered, the second is about the new macroeconomic forecast of the ministry of economic development, there is a more optimistic forecast for gdp growth in 2025-2027 than you have now, how achievable are their indicators in your opinion? thank you, thank you, we will attend the meetings we considered three options: maintaining the rate, increasing the rate to 19%, increasing the rate to 20%, but we specifically considered the increase step from 19 to 20%, after the exit, especially.

is closer to the scenario that we call disinflationary, if you look at the main directions of monetary policy, there are four scenarios, here is the scenario of the ministry of economic development, similar to our disinflationary scenario, yes, there is a certain probability of such a scenario, but we believe it is more correct to build monetary policy on more conservative prerequisites. colleagues, please, your questions. masha, please. maria bitkogan.

now it is clear that the high key rate has not yet led to significant problems for the russian economy. but isn't the bank of russia afraid that a long period with high key rates will lead to a cumulative negative effect and a sharp increase in bankruptcies. and in particular, isn't the bank of russia afraid. stability for the majority of borrowers, well , of course, there are always borrowers with a high

debt burden, already accumulated and for them increase in interest rates, if these are also floating rate loans, then this may be a significant problem for them, but still , most borrowers are in a fairly stable position, especially since in recent years the financial result of the company. real what is called the real sector of the economy, allowed them to form a safety cushion, credit quality quality of loans is not now ... financial institutions, corporations are good, the share of npl is somewhere around 5% and is quite stable, as for the risks associated with loans at a floating rate, indeed the share of such loans has grown in the corporate portfolio, and many companies actively took out loans at a floating rate, expecting a quick

reduction in our rate, yes, that it is necessary to wait a little while.

the stock market is considered an indicator of economic sentiment, and the fall is largely due to the rigidity of the monetary policy, and many in the market also associate the decline with the closure of the loophole for the transfer of assets, and the contract, which occurred on the 24th, but here is how the bank of russia assesses the pressure on the market of this factor, how long can it last, the second question, the russian president recently said that inflation must first be fought by increasing the supply of goods and services. it turns out that lending was high, but supply remained low due to problems with payments, what is the share of supply problems now, if you look at it in the context of inflation, what influences price growth more, high demand or low supply, thank you, thank you very much for the questions, as for the stock market, the stock market, on

the movement of the stock market in our opinion was influenced by several things at once.

to say and the revaluation of shares in connection with decisions on dividends, therefore several factors came together here, and we expect that in general the stock market will develop quite stable and as for the second question, this is really a key question, i would just stop at this, what is the reason for the slowdown of the economy, this is more a factor... countries of demand or factors of the countries of supply, inflation is really affected by the balance of supply and demand, we as the central bank have tools to influence demand, we believe that the restrictions on the supply side have had an impact, and these are not only problems with calculations, but also problems of depletion of physical resources

, primarily labor, and it is important for us to assess in the

future how... yaana churochkina, ria novosti, i will have two questions, and the first question is how much mortgage lending may fall by the end of 2024 and how long will it be more profitable to keep

money in bank deposits rather than invest it in mortgages, and what effect will this have on the economy in the future, the second question is how can solve the problem with cross-border payments in china, well... according to our forecast, mortgage loans in the twenty-fourth year will increase by 7.12%, this is according to the forecast that we made in

july, in october we can clarify, but in our opinion, after revising the targeted programs, the parameters of the targeted programs for preferential mortgages, now preferential mortgages are also increasing in volume, but for now it is difficult to draw conclusions about... long-term trends, because there were these changes in the parameters, i think that this will be possible, as we said earlier, to make such conclusions in the fall, we will monitor this situation, as for cross-border payments, then indeed in recent months the situation with cross-border payments has become more complicated, this leads to an increase in transaction costs of companies and, all other things being equal, this is about the inflation factor, we take it into account, but what measures are being taken, as i said earlier, we do not comment,

we will try to accept the question online, victoria shergina, law and finance, please, hello, allow me two questions, firstly, how does the central bank explain the simultaneous slowdown in gdp growth in the second quarter of 2024, but how realistic is this and what rate will be required for this? thank you, as for the simultaneous slowdown in gdp and acceleration of inflation, this is indeed the topic we are currently analyzing. in principle, and this indicates what factors are behind the economic slowdown, if the economic slowdown were only due to demand factors, then we would see

a decrease in inflation, so in our opinion there are definitely factors on the supply side, but we will need to assess what, what their ratio, what their role in slowing the economy and... demand factors and supply factors, as for the inflation targets, 4%, we believe that this is achievable next year, and we are taking, implementing policies to achieve this, as for what rate will be needed for this, we will clarify the trajectory of the key rate when we update the forecast - in october we will give an updated forecast of the trajectory of the key rate, which is necessary in the baseline scenario to return inflation to 4%. thank you,

colleagues, please, elena. fabrichna. elena fabrichna, reuters, you said that you would update the trajectory in october. but do you now admit that the rate could be more than 20%. eh, when you see the budget parameters, perhaps. the second question is related to why you still haven't raised the limit on yuan swaps, as the banks asked, they publicly stated this. and the third question is related to the fact that now there are two european subsidiaries left on the list of systemically important banks. foreign banks, so what do you think, can they from there to disappear, as if during the next revision of the list of the system of forming banks as a whole, how do you see their future fate in russia, and as for the rate, we are ready to make decisions on the rate level such as are required so that inflation...

in recent months, due to the problems that occurred on the currency market, on the yuan, banks began to actively use the bank of russia swap as a tool for funding the closing of a currency position, an open currency position, and we see that our operations began to be carried out practically on a permanent basis, but the purpose of our swap instrument is the role of insurance to smooth out volatility, it is not

a fund instrument.

and companies preferred to take loans in foreign currency, understanding that the rates on ruble loans are quite high, this process has already stopped, recently, we are watching this, but it is very important to further de-dollarize the balance sheets of banks, and if necessary, we will use the instrument of macroprudential surcharges on foreign currency loans, so now as far as the system is concerned significant banks, we review the list... regularly, we do this in the fall, but now it would be premature to comment on what changes may be made to this list. thank you, colleagues, please, who has questions? yes, nastya, please. savelyeva anastasia interfax. the imf said it is ready to resume consultations with the economic authorities of the russian federation,

which have not taken place since 2022. is the central bank ready to participate in these consultations, are you ready for a face-to-face visit by the imf and do we understand correctly that your adviser, ksenia valentina yudaeva, will leave this post in order to head, well, to become the executive director of the aprf at the imf, and one more question: european banks are putting pressure, oh, the european central bank is putting pressure on banks that have subsidiaries in russia, stimulating them to more actively reduce their business. in our country, and some clients complain about difficulties with service, about such a selective approach, well, including conducting cross-border settlements, and do you note this selective approach, how do you feel about it and is the central bank as a regulator ready to somehow advise foreign subsidiaries banks - to be more loyal or, for example, not to be so active in curtailing business in russia, and one more