which have not happened since 2022, is the central bank ready to participate in these consultations, are you ready for a short visit from the imf, and do we understand correctly that your adviser, ksenia valentina yudaeva, will leave this post in order to head, well, to become the executive director of the aprf at the imf, and one more question: european banks are putting pressure, the european central bank is putting pressure on banks that have subsidiaries in russia, stimulating them to more actively reduce their business in our country, and some clients complain about difficulties with service, about such a selective approach, well, including conducting cross-border settlements, and do you note this selective approach, what is your attitude to it, and is the central bank as a regulator ready to somehow advise subsidiaries of foreign banks - to be more loyal or, for example, not to curtail business in russia so actively, and one more question: based on your

conservative forecast for the economy for next year, can we say that you allow for overcooling of the economy next year? as for consultations with the imf, yes, we are going to conduct such consultations, this is, if not to say routine, permanent practice for all imf members, let me remind you that the imf unites 190 countries, so yes, such consultations are planned, as for the imf executive director from russia, the candidate for this position is nominated by the government, it is agreed with the bank of russia, well, all subsequent decisions must be implemented, and as for so, now the second question, as for the pressure, yes, the activities of russian subsidiaries

of foreign banks. yes, we really see pressure, we believe that the segregation that is proposed, it is unacceptable, subsidiaries of european and other foreign banks of the russian federation are created according to russian laws, operate in the russian legal field. compliance with the requirements of the ecb to follow sanctions in a foreign state contradicts the russian legal order and discriminates against their clients, in connection with this we recently sent subsidiaries of european banks in russia instructions that prohibit refusing to carry out transfers in foreign currencies or creating technical obstacles to such transfers on the basis of.

while we have risks of overheating, yes, that's why, yes, the state, not risks, here alexey bach is right, and of course, a certain cooling is needed, cooling is really more balanced growth rates, in order to avoid the so-called overcooling or risks of recession, then it is necessary to take timely measures to reduce overheating, which exist. well

, in no case should we not allow it to increase this overheating, this is probably the main recipe. colleagues, now we will try to bring artem permikov on the air again from krasnodar, online publication rbc caucasus. artem, please ask a question. yes, hello. elvira razalovna. in the conditions of personnel shortage and competition for human resources, the enterprises of the southern region continue to increase. salaries to employees, can there come a time when it will be unprofitable for enterprises to increase salaries and growth will stop, to what extent does this indicator accelerate inflation and what is your attitude to the fact that specialists from abroad come to russia en masse? thank you very much for the question, this is really the most important question, the state of the labor market, it must be said that some enterprises are already facing a situation where it is quite expensive for them to raise wages. they are investing,

not so much stopping production, but more actively investing in automation of production, increasing labor productivity, but the scale. countries such investments, we see that they exist, they exist in many industries, at many enterprises, but on a national scale these effects will manifest themselves gradually, since the investment cycle is stretched out in time and the growth of labor productivity cannot be sudden, but we see such trends, the demand for labor will nevertheless remain high in our opinion, but for... and for the growth of wages not to lead to increased inflation, it is important that the growth of wages be proportionate to the growth of labor productivity, to the extent that the growth of labor productivity continues, and we see that investments

that are growing are aimed at increasing labor productivity, then real wages will continue to grow, as for the expansion of supply by... in october, revise the inflation forecast upwards, it will be 7.3%, like mine or more, the second question is about the exchange rate, earlier the influence of the central bank's decisions on the key rate on the ruble exchange rate was noticeable, but now it seems that everything depends on the trade balance of sanctions. tell me, please, do you still see

a significant influence of supply decisions on the ruble exchange rate? as for the revision of the inflation forecast.

well, and maybe about the clarification of the forecast, indeed, since we are revising forecast in full, that is, it is impossible to revise the forecast of only one variable, but in order for the inflation forecast not to be higher than the current range, it is required that in september and october we see a very significant slowdown in the current rate of price growth compared to what was observed in july-august, and in stable components. thank you, colleagues, please, rita, margarita mordovina, rbc, analysts of the bank of russia in their bulletin, what the trends say, noted that in the near future they may there will be prerequisites that

indicate a cooling of the economy and more sustainable growth. do you support this idea, what should happen in general. in order to strengthen the faith of the bank of russia that the cooling of the economy has begun, by what indicators, by what values ​​do you monitor overheating, cooling, the second, there will also be several questions, but they concern one topic, these are currency swaps in yuan, do we understand correctly from your decision, from your comment, that the bank of russia will not provide any kind of additional support in solving the deficit problem. yuan liquidity, which the bankers talked about, and can your decision on swaps somehow smooth out the spread that we have between the yuan ruble and yuan dollar exchange rate. thank you, so as for signs

or evidence of future cooling, yes, of the economy, we are looking at a wide range. indicators on consumer activity, investment activity, from the point of view of consumer activity, in addition to income, an important influence has ... i will emphasize again, the pace is important for us credit growth in general, total credit in the economy and corporate consumer, because total credit is included in monetary aggregates, so there are some prerequisites, consumer retail lending, but i think that such a slowdown will occur as we receive data, we will make a decision. in october, regarding the yuan deficit, i would like to especially emphasize that

there is no and was not a deficit of payment liquidity in yuan, there was no payment liquidity, payments both from the point of view of covering the needs for making payments renih, there were no questions, basically these were problems related to closing an open currency position, so we believe that... a currency position should, i repeat again, should not be closed by a swap with the central bank. as for spreads, well , indeed, spreads were high on certain days, but we see that the spread between cross rates has significantly decreased in the last few days, and is less than 1%, we will continue to monitor this, add something else, well , regarding the story with liquidity, right? we need to clearly draw the line between liquidity and

funding, yes, that is, liquidity is the ability today for the bank to make a payment in the currency that the client asks to make this payment, so if there are difficulties with payments in yuan, it is not so that these yuan are sent so that they are accepted on the other side, but in... releases, yes, to what extent the gdp growth rate is higher than potential, the main indicator is inflation,

stable inflationary pressure, this is the main indicator, colleagues, please, ivan, second row, and ivan shlygin, fomag.ru, continuing the topic of the gdp forecast, it is precisely many people were interested in the twenty-fifth year, because there is a big... discrepancy between the bank of russia and the ministry of economy, and naturally, analysts immediately pick up the baton, who begin to interpret, well, as they usually interpret, those who do not agree with the policy of the central bank, they say: the government is trying its best to make the economy grow, and the bank of russia is raising the key rate and not allowing the economy to grow. well , naturally, we will see quite a lot of such comments in the future, that's what can be said about this say? in our opinion, sustainable

economic growth is impossible in conditions of high inflation, therefore, reducing inflation to target levels is one of the key measures to ensure that we have sustainable rates of economic growth, i repeat once again, only in these conditions will we have access to long-term loans, which are needed for... investments, and we are just taking, making the decision to increase the key rate so that, well, all our efforts do not go down the drain, yes, so that gdp growth, and not inflation, because in that situation, in which we are, when we have a deficit of both labor and production capacity, demand stimulation can simply lead to inflation growth without production growth, we cannot allow this situation to occur,

to demonstrate growth of 2.5% of real gdp next year. for us, this is not a baseline scenario, since we proceed from a more restrained assessment of the rate at which the potential of the economy can grow, based on historical historical experience, we believe that the potential of the economy next year will grow faster than it grew in on average over the previous 10 years, but still not so, not at such a rate to ensure the overall growth rate at the level of 2 and a half, but in our disinflationary scenario , in fact, a more generous

premise for the growth rate of potential is assumed, and there is a range for gdp growth. demand and through this there is a cooling of the economy and a slowdown in gdp growth. on the other hand, the regulator denies the negative impact of the rate on economic development, despite the abnormally high share of interest expenses in the investment structure. why, if high interest rates on loans do not prevent the economy from developing, they can also cool it down. how does this mechanism

of simultaneously restraining the development of the economy and not harming it work? thank you. thank you, well, first of all, cooling an overheated economy, or excessive lending, is not harming or restraining development. this is necessary in order to give production capabilities, the supply of goods and services, an opportunity to catch up with demand, which has run ahead, and not allow inflation to accelerate. and high rates, they are just prevent inflation, they hinder sustainable development.

probably, this is the most important thing, and for us the most important thing is to break this vicious circle, you are talking about the costs of servicing loans, in our opinion, this figure was mentioned, in general, on average, for companies , the costs of servicing a loan are somewhere around 5% of the cost price, it is clear that for companies with debt this can be a lot, but on average it is 5%, this is not such a large share of the cost price, a much larger share is expenses.

they will not become, but since they are already at 25% higher than they were 2.5 years ago, then this is the level of the current level of investment activity, it will lead to a more active growth of potential, which, in fact, is the only source of sustainable balanced growth. thank you, colleagues , please, grigory, the last row, hello, grigory bozhenov, block of popular economics, economic science, i have two questions, the first question is just about. assessments that are about interest costs, yes in the structure, respectively, of the company, firstly, i would like to simply clarification of how exactly these estimates were based, are these survey methods or are these some other methods that... were changed by the bank of russia the second point, does it not seem to the bank of russia in this case that it is rather more relevant to talk not so much about the cost structure, but about

the impact of, for example, one percentage point of growth in the rate of reduction of marginality, because ultimately what is more important is the fall in profitability and, accordingly, the potential translation in price into prices, given all that, it is clear that it is not always possible to do this and to carry out such a transmission, but it seems to me that it is more important to talk here not so much about costs? as about marginality, to what extent do you agree with this point of view, the second point, the second question, it concerns the dynamic inconsistency, which in the long term can be seen if the central bank increases the rate, but at the same time cannot influence the government's decision regarding, so to speak, increasing taxes in order to, to cut the current deficits. the government, and the government can make a decision regarding the increase in the national debt, the central bank cannot influence this decision, and here problems may arise related to

this closed cycle, yes, a vicious one, when the growth of the rate leads to an increase in the cost of the national debt, and this purely arithmetically automatically begins to spin up in such a cycle, as a result it turns out that the central bank, as if in the long term in such conditions, cannot influence inflation, how much do you think that

due to the fact that we have a low public debt, a low public debt, therefore it is very important to keep the level of public debt in manageable amounts. alexey borivich, maybe you can add here? if possible, i will also say a few words about mazhin. e, of course, you are right that, for a specific company, its, so to speak, the degree of motivation for it, to try to transfer. additional costs to prices depends on its marginality, this is really so, those companies that have more, those companies that are more efficient, those that have a large

profit margin, they can absorb additional costs by, as it were , reducing this margin, and in relation to additional interest costs, this is determined by the level of debt of the companies, and accordingly, well, the degree of their sensitivity to an increase in interest... rates, accordingly, those companies that have a high marginality, that are less indebted, they will be in a more competitive position, a competitive position in the rest those that are less efficient and more indebted, and well, during this period of time, while a tough monetary policy is being pursued, they will probably redistribute the market in their favor, this is the result of actually quite fair competition, in my opinion, and regarding budget dominance, but the main article on... well, it is so fundamental, yes, it is an article by wallace and sargeant from 1981, it is excellent in its legality, the main

argument is set out on seven pages, but the thesis there, in fact, is very constructive, yes, and it, the first thesis is that indeed in a situation of budget dominance at some point, exactly at the moment when the budget exhausts its ability to finance budget deficits by increasing the ratio of public debt to gdp, yes, at that moment indeed. monetary policy - it becomes more difficult for it to be independent, yes, well, they assume that this will happen, yes, but at the end of their article, there is the last sentence, if i remember correctly, it sounds something like this, that, uh, nothing in our analysis does not refute the ability of the monetary policy to control inflation on a permanent basis under a monetary policy regime

that effectively maintains the discipline of budget authorities, that is, under a central bank policy that is consistently aimed at achieving price stability, all economic agents, including the government, know this, under these conditions the central bank, in fact , an independent central bank can achieve its inflation targets on an infinite time horizon, these are the conclusions of the article, well the first article, which was dedicated to this , was written 40 years ago, yes, thank you, thank you. colleagues, please, vera, hello, russia 24, vera maroz, how effectively and transparently does the tool for off -exchange formation of the ruble exchange rate work now, and will you make any adjustments to the work, the second question, how real is the threat of stockflation now? thank you. indeed,

after the introduction of sanctions on the stock exchange, on the currency market, we had to change the methodology for determining the official rate, but understanding market concerns about how the exchange rate is currently formed in the new conditions, we have published a methodology for calculating the exchange rate, on our website there is, in our opinion, this process is absolutely transparent, and... we use the same approach that we used in exchange trading, that is, we determine the rate based on real transactions, we weigh it by the volume of these transactions, that is, this is an average-weighted rate by volume, we take data from bank reports that are available to us, so we believe that this methodology is quite transparent and reflects that the rate that is formed in real circumstances, as for the risk

of stackflation, all central banks are afraid of it, but not only central banks, and the government, this is when inflation is growing and economic growth has essentially stopped. and of course, in a situation of overheating and labor shortage, it is very important for us to avoid this scenario, so we make those decisions on the key rate, on raising the key rate so that there are no prerequisites for moving to this scenario. thank you, colleagues, marina. you are welcome, marina pimina, marina piminova, ntv delovye novosti, since july the most widespread preferential mortgage has ceased to operate, mortgage lending is slowing down, but housing is being completed, properties have been sold out, plus expenses for finishing, furniture, does the central bank take this preferential mortgage trail into account now, and if it does, how long in your opinion will it affect inflation, thank you, thank you, but indeed

you are right. it depends on how much people will be ready to take such loans in what volumes for consumer loans for repairs and so on and this was a broadcast on our channel, mene from our key rate will also be elvira nabiullina commented on the decision of the central bank on the key rate and answered questions about the state of the economy. well , right now on the channel russia 24 the main facts of the day in the studio georgy podgorny and natalia letovniy and this is what we are going to talk about.