against the tv channel arti, the head of the state department accused the russian channel of subversive and intelligence activities. that's it. today, the united states, great britain and canada are launching a joint diplomatic campaign to unite partners around the world to respond to the threat posed by arti and other russian instruments of influence and disinformation, blinken told reporters. this is breaking news. it can be said that the americans do not conduct their information

policy around the world and so on, but this is a separate topic for discussion, nevertheless here on the other hand , there is nothing new, the americans are two-faced citizens who absolutely attribute something that they themselves do not have or that they themselves have, or rather , it is even clear that it would be strange if our arty were to conduct some kind of non-russian policy, information... therefore, this is also some kind of surrealism on the american side, but we have already heard, we have already talked, and what is happening now in washington, for some logical reason does not work, but we will now return to russia, today was an extremely important event, the bank of russia raised the rate to 19% per annum, frankly speaking, many economists predicted that the rate would remain unchanged - and they had their own arguments before

this, although the day before the data from the central bank itself came out, which said that inflation seemed to be decreasing, if you take the average there, but nevertheless such a decision would have been made, and whether this decision is correct and the consequences of this decision we will discuss with economist mikhail zadornov. mikhail mikhailovich, hello, i am today i'm asking some direct questions straight to the point, do you support the decision of the central bank or not? i support the decision. for the central bank, uh, what was it based on, on the most recent weekly data, the thing is that after a small weekly decline in inflation, that is, we had deflation in the last week of august, the first week of september gave a new acceleration of prices, prices again officially crossed 9% per annum, well, that is, if we count there from last september to today, 9% inflation, inflationary expectations of the population, of course , much...

to do, by the way, lending to the population is slowing down a little, but compared to last year, with the beginning, more precisely this year, all the same, this is a growth of about 15%, we take all consumer lending, and mikhail mikhailovich, i have a question for you as a very experienced banker, and then there will be another question as an experienced other financier, you have been a practicing banker for a long time, why do banks run ahead of steam locomotives, i never remember such a thing, true... i saw that the central bank went ahead of its father into hell, as they say, that is, it raised the rate back then, the central bank, yes, when the central bank did not yet understand, and german gref replied that there is no liquidity, we are raising the rate, in general, what is happening in the banking sector, where is all the money, well, look, why is sberbank doing this and... the fact is that this is

a competitive market, intense competition for the population's money, the population now holds about 50 trillion rubles in bank deposits in other instruments, and this is one of the main sources of liquidity, by the way in other words, there is not much liquidity now, because lending is growing actively, banks cannot get anything on the external market, so what is left is the funds of the population , funds of legal entities, that is, the money of enterprises, so when the rate increases, then, well, maybe not the most widespread - the depositor, that is, the owner as... with a deposit in banks, and now everyone literally places these deposits there for 3 months, uh , having got used to the fact that the rate is constantly increasing, he makes a choice, he can transfer from one bank, uh, accordingly to the same sberbank or vice versa, from sberbank, if someone is late with the rate increase and transfers it to another one, to alfa bank, to

t-bank somewhere, therefore - these 3-4 days before the rate increase, if it happens, immediately after it the banks compete for depositors. these flows, they are quite high. now, what is happening in the sector as a whole? well, firstly, i will reassure everyone that the financial and banking sector feels great, its profit this year will be slightly higher, probably, than at the end of last year, this is somewhere around 3.5 trillion rubles, that is , in general, the banks are stable in the system and this is the most important thing that should generally worry depositors, although there are profitable ones, very profitable. they have more profit than last year, there are those who, unfortunately, the financial result is already worse, delinquency is not growing, that is, neither on mortgages nor on consumer loans, there are no significant, now, increases in delinquency, that is, people pay well on their loans, but this is because unemployment is very low in

principle these are real wages are growing, therefore - even with such reasonable rates, borrowers are quite able to cope with loan payments, that is, in principle , the system feels up to... quite stable, but of course, now it will be more difficult further, because the bank not only, the central bank not only raised the rate, it also increases in every possible way the so-called reserve requirements for banks, that is, if a bank has issued a loan, then it must reserve a certain amount, so these reserve standards, the central bank is tightening them, deliberately, slowing down lending, because this is one of the factors in the fight against growth. and mikhail mikhailovich, why can't we make stricter conditions for issuing loans without raising the interest rate and thus cooling the demand for loans, and why did the central bank take such half-measures, it raised the rate and increased reserve requirements, it seems to be working in one direction, but why can't we, why half-measures, these are two related

instruments, this is - one instrument is used, the second instrument, no, i understand that, but why can't we just have a requirement raise everything without raising the rate.

firstly, they are from fairly large sums, that is, if you have relatively small amounts,

for example, you put 2000 on deposit or even a million rubles, a decent amount for every russian citizen, then you will not receive a rate of 19-20%. these rates will be from fairly serious amounts and all pensioners will confirm that even in the largest banks, of course, now 19-20% still will not... will be, this is still the upper level of rates, well, on average, say, 15%, probably, according to your logic, that is, it turns out to be about, well 7-8 trillion, roughly, yes, yes, 7-8 trillion rubles people will earn in the next calendar year - keeping money on deposit. mikhail mikhailovich, look , here is the picture that is emerging: banks are in chocolate, part of the population that have large deposits, well, not in chocolate, let's not, let's not, but about chocolate. the banks are doing well, part

of the citizens, who have deposits of 3-10 million, here are the data that came in, this is the main increase in deposits, these almost 50 trillion that you are talking about, there are very a large share of such deposits, although the main average deposit is more, a little more than 300 thousand, i think, so yes, i think now it is somewhere around 1,400 average , look. it turns out that according to our official data, well, as official, almost half of the population does not have savings, it turns out that half of the population receives income, banks receive income, while lending is growing and we often see that loans are taken not only by, i mean from that part of the population that does not have enough resources for a possible increase in the standard of living or at least maintaining the standard of living, this kind of disproportion does not cause problems and... cannot create problems in the future, what do you think? no, this disproportion does not

cause problems, because firstly, well, many people have deposits now, they also take out loans in order to buy some, well, urgent goods now, yes, or just to go, people also take out a loan for this or for apartment renovation, and... they have both a deposit and a deposit, and so to speak, they also take out a loan, and i will note that in this year, as in the past, there is a fairly high growth of nominal wages, so part of the population uses loans and deposits, and those who do not have serious enough savings, they add a loan to the now increased wages, after all , earnings over the past, especially a year and a half ... this is approximately from the middle, probably, 20, from the beginning of the middle of twenty-third year,

we note that there is a fairly high growth of wages, this is not income from deposits, but wages, people felt that well many, frankly speaking, social strata and many regions that previously did not have such incomes, people living in them, they are just receiving increased wages, now... the impression is to talk about this, there are a lot of questions, but the question is the following:

basically there was one such signature phrase: we, the central bank, can influence demand, there are two components of inflation, yes, demand, supply, so we influence demand, we can clearly work here, supply is basically a matter for the government, and the central bank here, what is called out of business, and we are not responsible for this, we have no levers and powers to influence this, if then...

the central bank has only two tasks, the first is to ensure the stability of the ruble, that is, to ensure a stable exchange rate of the national currency, the second is to fight inflation, these are exactly two tasks, unlike a number of other central banks, the tasks of economic growth, or like this... growth, economic activity, this is actually not the task of the central bank, another thing is that it does not act in isolation, in fact, there is the ministry of finance, not even the government, but the ministry of finance and the central bank - these are monetary authorities, when they act in unison, interact with each other, then in fact , successful achievement of certain

goals occurs, when they act in different directions or not always in agreement, then... accordingly, sometimes problems arise, but in fact, as we now see, this policy of the central bank, namely the suppression of inflation, including by raising the key rate, is shared by the government, at least all official statements sound exactly like this. another thing is that we are now talking - today is september 13, friday, about raising the key rate, but the central bank has made only this, well, not the most decisive... step, because let's not forget that by october 1, according to the law , the government will submit to the state duma a budget for the twenty-fifth year, here is the structure of this budget, or, more simply put, its size , the deficit, the method of financing , the central bank will be interested in part, yes, non-expenditure expenditure, expenditure, the main thing is that the deficit, deficit, that

is, the difference in income, yes, the difference in income and expenses, this will be the key moment. that's exactly how the central bank, having made its move, will now actually wait to see what level of expenses, and most importantly the deficit, that is, the lack of income to finance all state expenses, the government will introduce in the budget of the twenty -fifth year, why? because one of the factors of inflation, maybe the last year, this is even the main one, this is the size of the state budget deficit and... methods of financing it, that is, there are inflationary methods of financing, well, when the printing press is essentially turned on, and there are non-inflationary methods, which include internal borrowing, because we have no external ones left for obvious reasons over the past 2 years, and the increase in taxes, so if additional expenses are financed in these two ways,

then this helps the sb to contain the growth of prices, if the deficit increases and money is printed, then no matter what... the central bank, inflation will still break through. well, we talked about the pluses, about the advantages, the high rate, stability, and so on and so forth, although there is also a lot here questions, but there is a reverse effect, this is the supply side, the president clearly set the task, to increase supply, not to fight inflation only by the method, reduction, i wanted to say strangulation, reduction in demand here. i did not see a clear answer to the question just today at the press conference: what will the central bank do if the economy starts to cool down sharply, because this is exactly about that consensus between the government and the central bank, well, there is a difference in the ministry of development of the central bank next year in gdp almost twice, firstly, the rates there are 2% per annum gdp growth, what kind of overheating of our

economy, i can't understand this, china is growing at a rate of five, the second economy in the world , no overheating. growth this year is 2.5%. we have exactly no 2%. for 7 months, january, july , economic growth in russia was 4.6%. that is, this is a very decent growth, that is, our growth now this year is at the level of china, as we see, last year our economic growth was about 3.6%. it is clear that with such a

growth rate for the first 7 months, we will have the same weather as in 2023, somewhere around 3.5-three. economic growth, by the way, the central bank did not expect it, it believed that growth would be less, but it believed that inflation would be less, therefore, from this point of view, the central bank's forecast for the next year is still much more cautious, that is, you are absolutely right, the central bank is planning a fairly sharp slowdown in growth rates to one and a half percent, well, this is one of its forecasts, here is one of the latest, while the economy is being laid down.

to develop as it is developing without any but thank god not 9, if everything will be here external cataclysms, and accordingly the growth rate will still be somewhere, i think, in the region of just 2.5%, this is of course not 4%, not 3 with, but taking into account the fact that... now in many ways it is the prices that compensate for the lack of supply of a whole range of goods, services, and in all the difficulties with imports that we are seeing now, 2.5% growth will be quite good for russia, given that next year it is quite obvious, both europe and the usa, the growth will be less, now that you are saying what the central bank will do if there is slow down. economy, look at what the central banks of other countries are doing now, this week the bank of england lowered the rate, the european central bank

has lowered the rate for the second time, now everyone is discussing on the eighteenth exactly in there next week the federal reserve system, that is , the national bank, the central bank of the united states, will lower its key rate for the first time, accordingly we see that as they slow down there. the rate of growth and, most importantly, inflation is slowing down significantly, then the central banks are immediately lowering rates, so we will count on the fact that as soon as inflation, here we feel its turning point, then the central bank will react flexibly and quickly enough, reducing the key rate and thereby making money cheaper in the economy, here it is just the art of time. to act like this, but alexander, let's not forget the other extreme, now we are talking about inflation at 9%, what happens

when the central bank does not keep the rate high, many russians, experts for sure, see for example turkey, which during the last term of president erdogan, it conducted an experiment on herself, and with inflation there at 30... 25%, she lowered the rate, and the central bank there completely, as it were, submitted to the president after the removal of some of the central bank's leaders, well, what do we see is that inflation in turkey has risen to 70%, the lira has completely depreciated, depreciated last year by about a third, by the way, until now, although inflation has now dropped in turkey to about 40%, but the rate is 50, the rate is 50, that is, if you quickly inflation is not fast enough suppress, in such a situation, then the loss of confidence in the actions of the central bank of the ministry of finance of the country, they risk bringing inflation

out of control, then serious citizens and enterprises will definitely suffer, we ourselves went through this in the early nineties, well, mikhail mikhalovich, the example of turkey is not everything there either, there was an excess in the other direction, yes, when you do not pay attention to that money supply, which was there , it was necessary to reduce the rate. for some reason in the hope that the supply will quickly increase, economic growth will increase, such was the logic, it is clear that you can't build a plant in 2 days, you need time to do it, but nevertheless the rate was yes 50, but for quite a long time, inflation was 70, it was 70, even with the prefix 50, just recently, and here i would not like to get into a discussion now, here is your rich experience, do you think the central bank will have time to start pressing on time? this pedal to lower the rate, because so far the statement from the central bank we only go forward, if necessary we will raise it even more and so on and so forth, so that people and so on

business rushed to take out loans, because tomorrow they will be even more expensive, doesn't this give rise to inflationary expectations in fact, what do you think? no, well alexander, let 's wait, firstly, for the central bank to reverse the trend of rising prices, while the entire market and the government. because this does not happen yet, then you are absolutely right, then it is important that this period of high rates. it

does not drag on, it does not drag on, so that it is there not for a year, but for some reasonable time, but for some time, a reasonable time according to you, this is how much, how long should investors wait, six months, a year, that is, more than a year is already bad, well, i think that well, we will not get to the point where we will hope that this increase in the rate there, we will hope again that it will be the last one on the horizon of the current year, then somewhere until, let's say, the second quarter of next year, we will live at this level of rates, but once again i would return to this question after we see the budget for 2025 submitted to the state duma, and today is the evening of direct questions, we have a minute and a half left, you are not afraid of stockflation, a direct question, why

not, why? a whole range of goods and services, domestic tourism, accordingly, we have strong growth there in furniture, textiles, that is, all industries that are focused on the consumer, on the domestic market, they have good growth rates, by the way, even the financial sector, colossal growth rates, not only banks, but insurance and other leasing markets, so in fact... well

, it is clear that the defense industry also gives a colossal boost, there is growth of up to 30% in related industries with the defense industry, no, there won't be such a sharp decline, but you're right about that, of course, the monetary authorities, the government, the ecb should, right after , somehow, we'll see that inflation is starting to... decline, there should be fairly quick action there. yes, mikhail mikhailovich, thank you very much, let's hope that our monetary authorities, the central bank, have a good reaction, they'll make all the decisions in time, although there are questions about this in fact, but nevertheless , thank you very much, i'll remind you, we talked to economist mikhail zadornov.

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