and such direct connections, of course, have not been traced directly in the last 2 years, but indirectly through the raw materials markets and other economies, the state of other economies of the world, which depends on the policy of the american central bank, or rather the organization that plays the role of this central bank, let me remind you, the us federal reserve system is a private organization, so - reducing the fre rate by half a percentage point at once is a lot and... now this rate is 5% per annum, it has been held for a long time, let me remind you, since the twenty-second year, since the spring of twenty the second year, the federal reserve raised the interest rate, vacuumed dollars from the world economy, so you can figuratively call it, and capital went to the united states, and developing markets, countries, including our partners in the global south also suffered from this, their economies developed more slowly than they could, in any case, there are such estimates, but is this true and...

these long years, as you rightly said, and this is essentially the end of the era of high rates not only in the american market, but in all developed markets, in europe, in canada, and uh, in switzerland rates are going down everywhere, the fed here, by the way, is following the trend, secondly, the american economy has started to cool down quite quickly, not only has inflation already dropped to almost two, now 2.2%, but uh unemployment has started to grow, the growth rate has slowed down, and the task is not just to lower the rate, it is a way to prevent the so-called hard landing of the american economy or the world economy, when inflation is falling, but at the same time as a sharp decline in inflation, it should be economic downturn, and here the fed has two tasks, the first is to keep inflation at these values ​​of about 2%.

the second is to prevent such a rapid slowdown of the american economy, and therefore the world economy, and well, here our tv viewers still need to explain a little why the federal reserve policy is so tied to the economy of developing countries, well , to which we are included, although we are already in the top five there, there, almost entering the parity of purchasing power, nevertheless we are considered in the general world such a table oranga. or something like a developing economy, so here - and the chinese economy, which is second in the world or even in terms of ppp, in terms of purchasing power priority, is first, it is also developing, and the indian economy, which is now again in terms of parity, it is the third economy, japan is the fourth, it is also developing, that is, in principle , developing economies - this is not an offensive characteristic, basically it is not the size of the economy that determines its development, but ...

and the ecb, and the bank of england, canada, and other developed countries, in relation to the economy, they they are lowering the interest rate they started doing it before the federal reserve, and why do you think the federal reserve is lagging behind, and usually before, as a rule, on the contrary , other central banks followed, why did this happen now, what do you think, or was it not fundamental, this is important, this happened because uh... inflation,

inflation in europe, in sweden, which still has its own separate currency, canada still has its own national bank. somewhere around this year it will be 2.5%, that is, this is very good growth for the us, and it was the feeling of the federal reserve is that with such active economic growth, this is a reflection , among other things, of our internal discussions in russia, the rate or economic growth, that

economic growth is quite active, inflation is high, it is higher in the us than in other developed countries, and if the rate starts to be reduced prematurely, then inflation will get out of control. and then there will be no trust in the federal reserve, their central bank from the point of view of the fact that it controls inflation, the most important thing here, this is in fact then, this is an epochal event, why? for two reasons: the rate cut means that everyone believed that the central banks of these countries themselves, not only the fed, but also the bank of england, the european central bank, which has already made two two cuts, but this week, by the way, did not repeat, and the bank of england did not repeat the action. rs, they have kept the rate unchanged for now, but they took steps earlier, that they are in control of the situation in terms of reducing inflation, everyone believed that inflation is really under control, this is the first, the second thing that is important for us, you are right about russia, that there will not be that very hard landing

of the economy, because even if there was a noticeable decrease in inflation, but the economy stagnated or was around zero, then for us, as an exporting country, also for brazil, also for china, this is bad because then prices would fall seriously, you rightly noted that the main connection here is that if there is normal economic growth, then there is demand for russian oil, gas, minerals fertilizers, food, metals, other goods, then - in principle, here is the same soft landing of the world economy, a slowdown in growth, but not very significant and there may even be faster growth. some other countries, developing markets, it will allow us to maintain that export potential, which, despite all the political events of the last two years, while russia maintains, this is of key importance for us, because for us the most undesirable scenario

is, of course, a fall in raw material prices, and with a sharp slowdown in the global economy, which often happened in previous periods, in periods of precisely... suppression of inflation, of course, this was in 1986, 1987, back in the soviet union, this was in 1997, 1998, 1999, that is, this period of such a sharp noticeable drop in global prices for sulfur - we will hope, although this is still half the job done, but events can still unfold differently, this is what has happened so far, this is the significance of september 18th. of this week, that is, the fed rate cut is like this kind of pass, that is, we have overcome the highest point, we have climbed everest and now we are gradually, so to speak, going down, but all mountain climbers know and those who have even uh climbed elbrus or some mountain in

their uh region, they know that when you go down a mountain, you can easily twist your ankle and get a serious yes. when they say going down is harder than going up, there is such a term, other muscles work there and so on, and mikhail mikhailovich, you are very clear told about the dependence, because we are also periodically criticized, why are we talking about the fed, we have our own central bank, which , on the contrary, raises interest rates, and so on, what do you think, will our central bank listen, take a closer look at the actions of the federal reserve, since we are still in the dollar system. we are dependent on the actions of the americans, there other central banks, according to the mechanism that you described, so our central bank will still take a more active look at how the american financiers are doing are they acting? well, look, for the central bank of russia, what is important, first of all, is what

we discussed with you, that if rates are reduced in developed markets, and the main... national banks act in this way, it means that the peak of inflation, not only in the us, but in the world , has been overcome, which in itself is very important, secondly, if there is a soft landing, for now this scenario... act more calmly, but then we move on to our internal, as

they say, affairs, and here, i think, for the central bank, which raised the rate, as we remember, a week ago by 100 basis points points, the key will be the end of september, the introduction of the budget, the introduction of the russian federation government budget to the state duma for 2025 and the three-year period from 2025 to 2027, and i think that...

what do you personally think, will the ministry of finance come to an agreement with the central bank, will the ministry of finance scare the central bank with its draft budget, will it make us 25 per annum and so on, or do you still somehow assess the situation, you know, we will see this in 2 weeks, we don’t have much time left, we will not guess, it is a difficult task, well, it is not only the ministry of finance, it is the government, in fact, well milfin is preparing directly, it is clear that the government is coming out with a project, yes.

as part of the budget, this has not yet been fully determined, and you yourself understand that this is

a key issue for investment projects, primarily in the manufacturing industry and in many other industries, so we will see, but returning to the fed's decision, why are we even talking about, why a half-percent reduction, how does this affect the rate reduction directly on the market, for example, the same american market or the european market, immediately or even in...

or in europe in the usa the mortgage rate also became 7-8% in dollars fixed mortgage and for an american citizen it was such a shocking feeling, but thank god there was no collapse in the real estate market although it slowed down a lot so here in anticipation of the fed rate on the american market already 5 to 6% mortgage now. it is worth immediately decreased also the rates on lending, well mainly corporate, accordingly the cost of bonds, i am saying this, to what, as soon as you overcome this russia.

also, but until this peak is overcome, a local peak or a local hill, then unfortunately, unfortunately, we are all experiencing difficulties, yes, that's for sure, especially since yes, our mortgage has slowed down now, so also very much, it is clear that, probably, we delayed a little with the preferential mortgage, it should have been stopped earlier, otherwise alexander, it was not noticed, it fell by half, july-august, july-august, by half, for mortgages. by half, so to say that it has become poor is to say nothing, i agree, yes, this is a very powerful fall, but it's a little bit like that, well, it's purposeful, yes, that is, we do it for the purpose of, it was expected, it was expected, yes, and mikhail mikhailovich, there is another topic, we will probably periodically return to the experience of the federal reserve system

of central banks in general, because you rightly noted that we discussed this with you last time, that the federal reserve system has this mandate. so that it monitors, so to speak, the labor market, or rather, economic growth, our central bank - according to, as they say, the constitution, for some reason is not allowed to do this maybe, but nevertheless, uh, if there really is an urgent need, i 'll ask you this question again, to change this mandate, well, to change the legislation in the end, you know, i think there is no such urgent need. here they are clearly divided, in fact, each country has its own peculiarities, you said correctly that the same federal reserve system is in fact an association of private banks from different states, and for us, for example, this would be strange, imagine that the presidency would gather, well, since in the us, if i broadcast to us, this presidency would gather

the central bank of primorsky krai, north ossetia and these 15 people they would not all republics somehow divided into circles of tambov region they would decide together some rate what rate to set after all this is the experience of dividing responsibility between monetary authorities, the central bank is responsible for inflation stability of the exchange rate, regardless of the government, and the government, in the government specifically the ministry of finance. responsible for what, for the budget, for actually state revenues and expenses tax policy, that is, providing, as it were, the income and expenditure side of the state budget, this division, on the one hand, it creates a conflict, but this is not always bad, a conflict, if it is resolved positively , they work on it, this is precisely the engine

of progress, so, but here we need to agree and move in unison, although everyone has their own task, when the monetary authorities work together in russia, we have seen successes, even after serious crises, for example, in the eighth, ninth year or three years, world economic crises, the authorities acted very quickly, the depreciation of the ruble returned to a more or less normal exchange rate policy, that is, the ruble strengthened and...

now specific models, the international energy agency, analysts from leading investment banks, they calculate the demand for oil and the supply of this oil, they break it down into specific ones. from china there are india's largest consumers, the european market, the us market, and it is clear that if the us economy, for example, grows 3% per year or 2.5 %, it consumes a certain

the number of millions of barrels of oil, and if it grows by 1% or does not grow at all, then accordingly this decreases and it can decrease by, say, 3% of the total demand, which is now approximately now consumption approximately reaches. millions of barrels, respectively, per day, if we are talking about this - daily consumption and - naturally - the price of oil directly depends on the rate of economic growth, which we are talking about, if this is a soft landing, the price of oil, just like the price of coal, uh, the demand for steel - for food, again also, because that the faster the economy grows, the more people in these countries can consume food and better quality food, more meat or fish, and all this is absolutely taken into account,

and the forecast is just that, but in many ways the economy is psychology, that is, if the markets expect that demand will grow accordingly, demand for certain goods will grow, then they will be produced accordingly, and this is especially important for russia, because we were. it strongly depends on well-being simply russian person, and mikhail mikhailovich, by the way, about external markets, interaction in these markets, since the end, probably,

especially since august, this problem has appeared earlier, i mean problems with yuan liquidity, and it reached 270 annual rpo at the end of august, at the beginning of september, there were statements, now these problems remain, and there were statements by the central bank following the meeting. there, this question was asked by colleagues, and the central bank's position is as follows, that the repo volumes there are about 30 billion we will not increase, and we are not the market saviors here, well, i may be interpreting it a little freely, and we - you look for banks yourself, this is a question for you as a very experienced financier, you see there are serious problems now on the interbank market and so on, because well, 270 per annum is clear, then it fell and so on, well, some crazy things. these are figures that indicate a crisis, do you see a crisis on the currency market here? no, well, you mixed up two questions, there is a question specifically

of yuan, as if its purity and origin yuan in settlements between russia and china, that is, in settlements between exporters and importers, respectively, in chinese-russian trade, because many chinese banks prefer to see yuan, which... they receive from the chinese market, and not from russian banks, yes, because some russian banks, well, a significant part are under sanctions, after all, the chinese financial system insures itself in every possible way against secondary secondary sanctions, so this is an independent task, as it were, of exporters, respectively russian - to receive - to credit to their accounts. as if clean, one might say, in the understanding of chinese banks yuan, the second is liquidity on the russian market, because where does it come from, it comes from the same

exporters who sell their goods and receive yuan here and bring it to russia, and from the balances of yuan, as there were dollar balances inside russia at one time, simply put, that as in... all banking systems in any bank balance you have assets, that is, in fact, there are loans in yuan, bonds in yuan, settlements in yuan, but at the same time you should have liabilities, that is, yuan accounts, corporate accounts or citizen accounts, and you know that many of our banks attract deposits in yuan, and accordingly these liabilities should also be inside the system, and the central bank, with swaps, like all national banks in the world, it provides exactly these daily

liquidity gaps, daily gaps. but no, the balance, it cannot balance at the expense of its own money and should not, these are like, not, daily, but stable gaps between assets and liabilities in yuan, but we, you and i , yes, we went into the details of the banking business, i called it that, and this is a swap operation, and mikhail mikhailovich, that is, it is very important for me to clearly know your opinion is that there is none.

well, let's really hope that the banks will take action, because yes, those messages that are coming, someone is still trying to catch the hype on this, saying, look how the yuan is now growing against the ruble, it really has grown quite well, the yuan, that is, and because it is now the main settlement currency in russian federation, it already occupies a larger share than, naturally, the dollar and the euro, therefore, from the point of view of supply and demand, it is the most popular currency within russia, yes, such attention to this market, well... i think that we will certainly follow it with you to discuss, but we will do this next time, mikhail mikhailovich, thank you very much, all the best, and i will remind you, we talked with financier mikhail zadornov.

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